model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[tight isobar]

Extraordinary stuff this morning!!.. I look forward to the round shell supporting for this suite . And await the euro with baited breath...

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I need to sleep. Pray ECM doesn’t spoil the fun.

I'll leave you with p30 to dream about... Pushing -15 

[tight isobar]

Ahh wow, I’m not usually lost for words.. but ... are we finding the wonker bar with that golden ticket ?!.. it’s getting that way the supports/ the thermos..... the member shorts @london ones...@sister suite 00z 500 geos. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by tight isobar

[knocker]

Am I missing something here . As I see the gfs this morning, as the Atlantic high pressure does not ridge that far north, the jet is flatter and thus resulting in the very cold air just giving the UK a glancing blow. This has always  been a  knife edge scenario and it is not over yet by any means

Edited November 18, 2021 by knocker

[Mark Smithy]

Chart of the day so far? We await ECMWF.

I think this cold snap, whether it lasts 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months is still going to give people a jolt. We have been lulled into mild weather and there is a properly cold spell on the way.

[Griff]

48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To be honest I’m pretty speechless from what I’ve seen from the GFS this morning. Then add to that the UKMO which was an absolute pearler. 

I feared the worst when I saw the ICON.
 

 

Just waking up or rather still half asleep here, I'm trying to make sense of all this... 

So a potential transient cold shot for a week's time (next Thursday). 

 

But loses the plot thereafter? 

[Griff]

Gem gives me a little more faith.. 

[Guest]

On 18/11/2021 at 05:45, knocker said:

Am I missing something here . As I see the gfs this morning, as the Atlantic high pressure does not ridge that far north, the jet is flatter and thus resulting in the very cold air just giving the UK a glancing blow. This has always  been a  knife edge scenario and it is not over yet by any means

True, but the op is one of the few that ends the cold abruptly and the ensemble mean (and main clustering) is far more encouraging for deeper and more prolonged cold  

[Griff]

Ecm closer at 120 to ukmo than GFS 

[Griff]

And the latest 144s to compare... 

 

[Battleground Snow]

This is what the ukmo looks like at 168. Strong Ridging into Greenland

[Griff]

168 ecm

Heights into Greenland and Canada... 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Griff

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Griff said:

168 ecm

@sheikhy will be happy with the westward adjustment, 192 could be an epic chart

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@sheikhy will be happy with the westward adjustment, 192 could be an epic chart

Curse of the commentator... 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@sheikhy will be happy with the westward adjustment, 192 could be an epic chart

IT's more like the GFS run - modifies the flow out to the WNW over the sea and starts to cuts the very cold air off.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

IT's more like the GFS run - modifies the flow out to the WNW over the sea and starts to cuts the very cold air off.

True but it's alot colder air and less modified than the GFS

[That ECM]

Good output this morning. All of them on a similar page. Ukmo t144 and t168 are most impressive. 
 

to be fair it’s a variation on a theme and the theme is cool/cold.

[Kasim Awan]

The models are not downgrading the blocking or the cold - more they are refining the evolution based on higher quality data now available as we approach the event - a very common occurrence and is to be expected.

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

True but it's alot colder air and less modified than the GFS

Are going to get a slicing high through northern Canada ala GFS i wonder 

[Griff]

With more of an Atlantic component than yesterday, but still curious to see the op vs the entire suite. 

[tight isobar]

On 18/11/2021 at 06:43, mb018538 said:

IT's more like the GFS run - modifies the flow out to the WNW over the sea and starts to cuts the very cold air off.

What we need to take heed of, is the momentum of the vertical block!! @ west Greenland @example .. the prognosis is @possibly that waa in direct punching into the forementioned @ latter timeframes is fraught, with west -to east blocking correctness. We now have nearly cross model concepts of vertically positioning.. and that has complete wiggle room for expanse in either.. or both parts ...nearer to time frame/fruition!.. and for me leaves a deciphering of raw modelling to gage the outcome. And you’ll see this as near as today’s latter suites when “again” the momentum try’s re- tuning the by now block format..in the Atlantic.   

[mb018538]

A few snow showers knocking around (especially N/W Scotland), but away from high ground it looks to be a 'dry old do' on the 00z ECM op run at least.

[Tom Clarke]

A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.

Morning, where and what in you opinion is going to end the cool/cold next Friday? Unless you’re micro analysing 850’s 8 days away I’m not sure why you have come to that conclusion. Look at the jet stream.

[supernova]

Looking more cold snap than cold spell this morning unless UKMO is right which puts up a more robust Greenland block compared to the rest of the models. Any 2010 comparisons remain off the mark for now but plenty of time for change. GEFS ensembles have us heading back toward average temperatures quite quickly but I’m unconvinced by much beyond 144/168, evolution looks overblown from the west to me. Least there’s something to talk about! 

Edited November 18, 2021 by supernova