model discussion Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

[jules216]

For this exact date ECMWF and GFS were yesterday showing -16 uppers for central Europe,now ensemble mean is showing Euro high, whats the point in posting numerous click bait posts of GFS post 300h if at 120hr there was 180° turn around just like that.

[swfc]

On 09/11/2021 at 11:11, jules216 said:

For this exact date ECMWF and GFS were yesterday showing -16 uppers for central Europe,now ensemble mean is showing Euro high, whats the point in posting numerous click bait posts of GFS post 300h if at 120hr there was 180° turn around just like that.

Because it looks nice, I like them and it's just weather and its fun,we all realise it won't varify I think, enjoy sorry jules is "click bait" used in carp fishing???! 

Edited November 9, 2021 by swfc

[seabreeze86]

16 minutes ago, swfc said:

You'd bank this in November any year

Most definitely, there’s never a guarantee of getting deep cold to the UK especially early in the season but with the way the Atlantic is behaving at the minute I think is looking increasingly likely within the next few weeks 

[LRD]

Polar view is frequently showing something like this. Trend, incorrect trend or an over reaction to a signal? Well find out over time and that's why we're all here!

If I was being really greedy I'd want lower pressure over northern Italy and central Europe

Edited November 9, 2021 by LRD

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Because it looks nice, I like them and it's just weather and its fun, enjoy

For me this is kindergarden stuf. I can already count 3 cold snaps that models turned around in to Euro high already this autumn, as of last week for today models were showing -8 T850hPa for my location but now we will have like +4, how amusing

[swfc]

On 09/11/2021 at 11:18, jules216 said:

For me this is kindergarden stuf. I can already count 3 cold snaps that models turned around in to Euro high already this autumn, as of last week for today models were showing -8 T850hPa for my location but now we will have like +4, how amusing

No worries. Like I said just following the models and output. I do understand climatology, synoptics etc. Just shooting the breeze and you could be spot on with the euro Heighths. Enjoy your day

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

For me this is kindergarden stuf. I can already count 3 cold snaps that models turned around in to Euro high already this autumn, as of last week for today models were showing -8 T850hPa for my location but now we will have like +4, how amusing

Thing is mate it's just as foolish to keep saying it's all gonna collapse because that's what happens most of the time! It's the weather and nobody really knows whats going to happen beyond a certain timeframe!

This is good fun to see at such an early stage of the year,but for me personally....its a tad to early for anything meaningful right now. But we have 3 months to if not hit the jackpot,then perhaps get a few 2nd or 3rd prizes!

And personally I don't think the current GFS is losing the plot by showing these Height rises towards Greenland....its actually backed up by the 46 anomalies....especially for later in the month....so it may well be onto something.

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, jules216 said:

For me this is kindergarden stuff.

You ain't going to enjoy this thread in the Winter then, as many of the posts are in the t+300 range from individual ensembles members that happen to show a flake or two or snow. For us on these islands, snow is rare to low levels, so some folk will show charts that hint at it, even if, very unlikely.

[TSNWK]

On 09/11/2021 at 11:11, jules216 said:

For this exact date ECMWF and GFS were yesterday showing -16 uppers for central Europe,now ensemble mean is showing Euro high, whats the point in posting numerous click bait posts of GFS post 300h if at 120hr there was 180° turn around just like that.

Because if I may be so bold this place is a hobby and somewhere to dream, chat and learn...

It's fun... Why not post and discuss eye candy.. if the charts show it then fair game for discussion..

[Notty]

I wouldn’t want to be in his house at Xmas

 

[Battleground Snow]

Some ensembles giving support at 276+ throwing out alot of blocking... With la Nina in the weak/moderate phase atm, there is a chance this setup could happen over next the few weeks.

[booferking]

38 minutes ago, jules216 said:

For this exact date ECMWF and GFS were yesterday showing -16 uppers for central Europe,now ensemble mean is showing Euro high, whats the point in posting numerous click bait posts of GFS post 300h if at 120hr there was 180° turn around just like that.

Jules give the la nina footprint time to kick in its only first week of November the models are getting there interesting times ahead.

[The Real Snowman]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Absolutely crazy chart for end November

It most certainly is. I'd love to see how this would evolve from here. As other's have posted though - there is some very blocked results being thrown out and equally, some very flat ones too. More runs needed but I always love it when we get the carrots being dangled in front of us - very interesting and better than highly mobile patterns just bringing the misery of flooding. Would be nice to see us on the right side of things from a frost and snow perspective. Keep hoping team! Something may be a foot, I just hope it's the snow levels - I will get my coat. Which hopefully, we will need!

[Weather vane]

I know, not a hope of verifying, but for sheer beauty, I couldn't help posting it...

[northwestsnow]

Clearly, and we know from experience,  Euro heights can be incredibly durable.

GFS clearly hasty in promoting a strong Atlantic block ,it could be a delay,not a cancellation to the correct pattern..

[swfc]

On 09/11/2021 at 12:30, northwestsnow said:

Clearly, and we know from experience,  Euro heights can be incredibly durable.

GFS clearly hasty in promoting a strong Atlantic block ,it could be a delay,not a cancellation to the correct pattern..

Indeed they are durable and a pain problem is we have zero control over them

The output is what it is and will frustrate. It could be a delay or it could set us up in a poor position nw. I think we're in a good position this year but it good go down the Gary. Not much point stressing it will do what it does mate

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Indeed they are durable and a pain problem is we have zero control over them

The output is what it is and will frustrate. It could be a delay or it could set us up in a poor position nw. I think we're in a good position this year but it good go down the Gary. Not much point stressing it will do what it does mate

I'm not stressing

The pattern depicted for the last week in November by the ec46 last night is still possible...

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly, and we know from experience,  Euro heights can be incredibly durable.

GFS clearly hasty in promoting a strong Atlantic block ,it could be a delay,not a cancellation to the correct pattern..

I'm thinking similar, the high pressure heading toward Greenland matches the phase 4 chart I posted yesterday think gfs just a bit quick with that setup I'm still looking to see if higher pressure can appear in Scandi like the other charts I posted suggest. And something worth remembering some members might not have been viewing the charts back in November 2010 but it was gfs and its ensembles that done similar to what we are seeing now picking up on that blocking before the other models, so not worth discounting altogether

[swfc]

On 09/11/2021 at 12:43, northwestsnow said:

I'm not stressing

The pattern depicted for the last week in November by the ec46 last night is still possible...

 

I know "your" not mate

[mb018538]

Still a downward trend later into November, though nothing especially cold on the mean yet as there are plenty of mild options to go with the colder ones too. Pressure looks to be remaining high for quite a while too....so the quiet autumn looks like continuing. The 6z GFS run above shows many areas seeing 0-5mm of rain in the next 14 days. Even the traditionally very wet W/NW areas aren't too bad either.

[lassie23]

The talk of snow, sorry I mean snaw has started early in here this winter.

[Methuselah]

IMO, if a model produces a chart, then that chart is 'fair game'. And, after all, how many Day 10+ charts verify? Not many!

But, anyhow, here are today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles to pick over. Happy perusing!

    

[Rayth]

54 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I'm thinking similar, the high pressure heading toward Greenland matches the phase 4 chart I posted yesterday think gfs just a bit quick with that setup I'm still looking to see if higher pressure can appear in Scandi like the other charts I posted suggest. And something worth remembering some members might not have been viewing the charts back in November 2010 but it was gfs and its ensembles that done similar to what we are seeing now picking up on that blocking before the other models, so not worth discounting altogether

Now that is a thread i would love to read , anyone got the model discussion bookmarked from winter 2010 by any chance ?  

[swfc]

On 09/11/2021 at 13:28, Ed Stone said:

IMO, if a model produces a chart, then that chart is 'fair game'. And, after all, how many Day 10+ charts verify? Not many!

But, anyhow, here are today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles to pick over. Happy perusing!

    

Well said Ed, be pointless viewing if it was cast in stone. Any for me "The hair is on the move" , it's a sheffield thing at dog racing. Things are OK for november at least its not lashing it down with a bartlett.

Edited November 9, 2021 by swfc

[Yarmy]

8 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Now that is a thread i would love to read , anyone got the model discussion bookmarked from winter 2010 by any chance ?  

The Strat thread for Winter 09/10 is here, and might be of interest: