Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I meant 19/20 and 20/21, rather than 18/19. I experienced 19/20 in its entirety - one of the most unpleasant autumn/winter seasons of my lifetime, constant dull, wet, unsettled Atlantic-dominated weather set in around the equinox and didn't let up for almost six months. Obviously not quite as destructive as 13/14, but I'd probably rate it even worse - the 13/14 winter seemed to have more bright spells in between the storms and didn't give such an impression of endless gloom and low light levels. Also November '13 was predominantly settled, and the settled weather returned right at the start of March '14, so it didn't go on for so long. It set in on Friday 13th (yes, really) December and was already on the way out by the end of February; the Valentines storm being the last really big one and the weekend of Feb 22/23 2014 was actually quite pleasant.

20/21 I missed part of (being overseas) but by all accounts was as unpleasant as 19/20 in this area, but colder, but bear in mind that my impression is based on others' reports. Cold at times, mild at others, and a lot of very dull, damp and wet weather is the impression I get, with little in the way of sunshine. Not cold enough for snow, here at least.  But with the low jetstream, it's quite possible the south of England had it worse than other parts of the UK. Also another year in which the poor weather extended through much of autumn and winter together.

18/19 on the other hand was one of the more pleasant winters of recent years. December 18 was a dull, wet grotfest, it's true, but Jan 19 was anticyclonic, often bright, and sometimes cold and frosty with a notable (for here) snow event at the end of the month. Then Feb had the unprecedented warm spell and 21C in London.

17/18 I would rate as the most interesting since 2013, though, culminating in the exceptional March snowfall - though the end of December 17 and most of Jan 18 was a dreary Atlantic clagfest, the early and late winter had plenty of interest.

In Scotland and far north of England last winter was I think the coldest overall since 2009-10. I could be wrong..  may be 10-11 but I always dismiss that one as cold overall as it was one of two halves, exceptionally cold December followed by near average Jan and very mild Feb.

I rated last winter on a par with 12-13, slightly better than 17-18 for cold and snow.. but it was very episodic and the cold and snow never extreme, just alot of rather cold weather at times.

Here we were often just on the right side of the margins for cold weather. However we missed out on many decent snow events everything pivoted around us.. meaning we had numerous light snowfalls that never stuck around for more than a day or two. 12-13 delivered our last major snowfall, 8 inches in January.. we just missed out on epic fall in March, a few miles to the west unusually there was a deluge of the stuff 

 

Edited October 2, 2021 by damianslaw

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, wowsers!

That mid lat block extends from the UK to who knows where…and heading for Greenland heights.

We’ve already discussed most of this, just need the pattern to hold until winter, which I have every confidence it will, whether that will be enough to deliver cold in December depends on luck and location, I would suggest.  

Edit, sorry this was meant for the MOD but is relevant here, so I’ll leave it.  

Edited October 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, the only thing that seems certain is the high that gives the UK settled weather.  Apart from that it looks like Dangermouse is in town:

[bluearmy]

20 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Awaiting the updated EC seasonal...should be hot off the press in the next few days. The Oct update should give us some more substantial clues as to where we're headed...for early winter at least!

 

19 hours ago, Don said:

Squeaky bum time I think CC and perhaps more so than normal this year?!  

Canadian update is very pos NAO throughout  with persistent euro heights …………

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Canadian update is very pos NAO throughout  with persistent euro heights …………

Crikey that's not what I wish to hear !

[sebastiaan1973]

 

 

Some thoughts for winter 2022.

 

[sundog]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Crikey that's not what I wish to hear !

Given how warm September was I would not be surprised if we have a very mild winter coming up,regardless of those who think there is no link at all.

[Don]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

 

Canadian update is very pos NAO throughout  with persistent euro heights …………

You’ve made my Saturday evening……

[Don]

33 minutes ago, sundog said:

Given how warm September was I would not be surprised if we have a very mild winter coming up,regardless of those who think there is no link at all.

That is certainly a concern, yes. However, you never know, this year ‘might’ be different!

[Sunny76]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

That is certainly a concern, yes. However, you never know, this year ‘might’ be different!

I don’t see a mild winter happening.
 

Something tells me we are in for a shocker of a brutal cold spell at some point. My bet is sometime between mid December and early February. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

To be honest, the CFS is quite happy with the idea of heights to our S too

Nothing I've seen yet suggests that the best shot of winter won't come between latter Nov to late Dec. That's our window as things stand IMO.

Edited October 2, 2021 by CreweCold

[sebastiaan1973]

CanSIPS. Once again -it seems- we depend on the stratosphere. 

[Summer8906]

19 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Here we were often just on the right side of the margins for cold weather. However we missed out on many decent snow events everything pivoted around us.. meaning we had numerous light snowfalls that never stuck around for more than a day or two. 12-13 delivered our last major snowfall, 8 inches in January.. we just missed out on epic fall in March, a few miles to the west unusually there was a deluge of the stuff 

 

That's the thing - the north and particularly the far north of England is often in the cold easterlies when we have a low jetstream and lows passing across midland and southern England - while here it's nothing but endless wet!

I would maintain that for the months of December and January, few parts of Europe have a worse climate than southern England - for my tastes. Further north in the UK tends to get more 'true' Pm (northwesterly), easterly, and Arctic airmasses - and consequently snow (I have experienced decent snow at low levels in the Lake District when the south had nothing, including in the notably mild 2015/6 winter), further east in Continental Europe the weather's more continental (obviously) while further south in say W and SW France the Azores high comes into play more, with mild and sunny conditions at times (I would imagine).

On the other hand we can keep decent temperatures here well into autumn (perhaps we will get a taste of this later this week) and spring comes early - so much so that the second half of February can be considered part of spring in some years.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, Don said:

That is certainly a concern, yes. However, you never know, this year ‘might’ be different!

(Re September warmth) Given that there appears to be no similar link between warm weather later in the autumn and mild winters, might that just be coincidence?

Also has anyone analysed the synoptics of these warm Septembers? Some of them were warm cyclonic, others warm anticyclonic for instance - and perhaps this year was synoptically more similar to say 2009 or 1985 (given the dryness up to the 24th) than something like 1999 or 2016?

Edited October 3, 2021 by Summer8906

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

CanSIPS. Once again -it seems- we depend on the stratosphere. 

That is horrific.

Hopefully wayyyyyy off the mark .

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That is horrific.

Hopefully wayyyyyy off the mark .

A high centred over southeast Europe will do little for a region which actually needs the rain, either - thinking of the fires in Greece this year.

At least it might be drier in the south than the last two if this comes off, something like 1989. Still dull though I suspect, with frequent Tm airmasses - really, really needing a bright winter this year.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Summer8906

[karyo]

28 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

CanSIPS. Once again -it seems- we depend on the stratosphere. 

High pressure in the Balkans has become a permanent feature of the last few years regardless of what the QBO and ENSO state is. For example, most parts of Greece had well below average rainfall last winter and I was in short sleeves on most days. The disastrous summer than followed was not a surprise. 

I was watching a tv interview of a Greek meteorologist after the fires and he said this constant high pressure is the result of climate change and not a temporary feature. He predicted the Balkans and much of the Med is in the process of becoming desert-like.

[mamamia2005]

17 hours ago, sundog said:

Given how warm September was I would not be surprised if we have a very mild winter coming up,regardless of those who think there is no link at all.

I really hope you are right - but then I hope for a mild winter every year!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, mamamia2005 said:

I really hope you are right - but then I hope for a mild winter every year!

I can't recall anybody on this forum saying that before. 

Still, I guess there's a first to everything.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Premiere Neige]

22 hours ago, CreweCold said:

To be honest, the CFS is quite happy with the idea of heights to our S too

Nothing I've seen yet suggests that the best shot of winter won't come between latter Nov to late Dec. That's our window as things stand IMO.

You might be right there. But December looks good at the moment

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, mamamia2005 said:

I really hope you are right - but then I hope for a mild winter every year!

very lucky member nowadays then! imagine living before mid 90's when it snowed quite often, if you were born in 2005? you don't know real winters

[mamamia2005]

30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

very lucky member nowadays then! imagine living before mid 90's when it snowed quite often, if you were born in 2005? you don't know real winters

What makes you think I was born in 2005?! I'm a lot older than that! 

I do remember very snowy winters as a kid,  but now as an adult I don't like the chaos and disruption snow causes. And yes I do hope for mild winters every year! 

[Don]

50 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

very lucky member nowadays then! imagine living before mid 90's when it snowed quite often, if you were born in 2005? you don't know real winters

I wish I was a mild lover but I'm not and never will be! 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by Don

[Beanz]

16 hours ago, mamamia2005 said:

I really hope you are right - but then I hope for a mild winter every year!

How odd.  That’s like hoping for a cold summer every year….

 

[mamamia2005]

Good grief! Excuse me for having a different opinion. Wouldn't life be boring if we were all the same