Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Chesil View]

Just a quick word around so called once in a hundred year events like the much quoted 2010.  Once in a hundred years means it would normally be 'expected to happen' once in a hundred years. It dosn't mean that you have to wait a hundred years for it to happen again.

As an example the exceptionally destructive storms of October 1987 and January 1990 were quotedat the time as as being once in 200 year events and yet happened just 4 years apart..

I'm not for a moment suggesting that the upcoming cold spell will be a repeat of Nov/Dec 2010 but just pointing out that it being quoted a once in 100 year event does not preclude it happening again in a much shorter space of time.

[Rollo]

For someone who distinctly recalls the incredible winter of 1962-63, the weather of mid December comes to mind, it was rather cold until a ridge moved slowly east and a high over Germany started pulling in bitterly cold se winds. I have all the details from the DWR of that time should anyone wish the fine detail.

 

 

 

[John88B]

As winter approaches I see hair being pulled out and some toys already flying in the model output thread as people react from run to run. 

I just keep thinking back to Fergies winter forecast of plenty of northern blocking, winds coming in from a northerly direction with below average temperatures and the chance of even colder outbreaks later in the winter. 

I'm seeing nothing in the general model output that makes me doubt this forecast. From a cold lovers perspective I see lots to look forward to this winter. 

[Methuselah]

Here are Gavin P's hurricane/Eurasian snow cover analogues. Hopefully, they're promising enough to persuade folks to gather up their toys?

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 16/11/2021 at 00:56, RabbitEars said:

Having read all the recent posts and seen the charts (not that I understand a great deal) on the MAD thread, would it not be nice to just have some colder temperatures... maybe some weak late autumn / early winter sunshine, crisp frost mornings... Do we have to have a big freeze.... I think it will cool down - so a drop from a high today of 11C to something more seasonal would be nice. Some of the “boom” charts could create shocking cold weather warnings, with severe impacts on society... do we really want to be digging our cars and vulnerable neighbours out of snow and ice just for the kicks of getting our lust for snow satisfied? 

As a weather enthusiast as well as the fact that snow is fairly hard to come by in this country, I would like to experience some snowy days this winter. On the other hand, for me it starts to lose its novelty after a few days and of course it does come with its inconveniences. 

I am not after a 1963 style winter. More like a mixed winter with many blue sky frosty mornings, a snowy day here and there and the odd storm added to the mix.

[bluearmy]

On 19/11/2021 at 07:06, John88B said:

As winter approaches I see hair being pulled out and some toys already flying in the model output thread as people react from run to run. 

I just keep thinking back to Fergies winter forecast of plenty of northern blocking, winds coming in from a northerly direction with below average temperatures and the chance of even colder outbreaks later in the winter. 

I'm seeing nothing in the general model output that makes me doubt this forecast. From a cold lovers perspective I see lots to look forward to this winter. 

Which fergie was that John ?  Sarah ? 

[daz_4]

First taste of winter today here in Czechia. Snowing heavily, snow is starting to settle now.

[Summer8906]

On 17/11/2021 at 21:07, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Just a quick word around so called once in a hundred year events like the much quoted 2010.  Once in a hundred years means it would normally be 'expected to happen' once in a hundred years. It dosn't mean that you have to wait a hundred years for it to happen again.

As an example the exceptionally destructive storms of October 1987 and January 1990 were quotedat the time as as being once in 200 year events and yet happened just 4 years apart..

Closer than that... 2 years and 3 months apart But yes, very good point.

January 1990 'seemed' to be less destructive in the far south in the sense that there was not lasting disruption to electricity and transport on quite the same scale. For instance I was at university at the time and classes were not suspended; I recall walking to university battling against the wind and being a little worried, but evidently not enough to stay in. I also remember the day being very bright and sunny, a further contrast to 1987, which, perhaps irrationally, made the situation seem less menacing than it was. I also clearly remember using the train on the Saturday, just two days later, and there being no generalised disruption to train services by then. By the Saturday another system was moving in, and while it wasn't notably windy, I do remember it producing a lot of rain.

Indeed, the Burns storm ushered in probably the worst (wettest and stormiest) phase of that winter, I seem to recall some unusually benign very mild and dry weather earlier in the month. I also seem to recall the last 10 days or so of February being much more benign, warm and spring like (though not always sunny) - a preview of what was to come in the famously warm and sunny March that followed. In fact I'm sure I saw a rainfall map of winter 1989/90 which showed the extreme south of England seeing just average rainfall. I've seen comparisons made between 1989/90 and 2019/20 but I found the former much more bearable than the latter. But maybe that's partly because 1989/90 was a much more optimistic phase of history all round, for reasons unrelated to weather.

Regarding 2010, the year started with the only severely cold January since 1987 and then ended with that December, so that would be another example - as indeed is the cluster of interesting winters from 2008/9 to 2012/13.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Going back to this winter, the GFS I looked at yesterday and the Met Office December forecast suggest a typical tedious December, with a mildish WNW-ly in the opening days followed by a dull, mild cloudy interlude before the Atlantic arrives with a vengeance around the 10th. We certainly are paying in spades for 2010, it seems - the long run without a proper cold, frosty, settled December is quite remarkable now, and is racing ahead of the gap we had between 1981 and 1990 with that eight-year run of mild and often wet Decembers in the 80s. The problem we already have with ridiculously short days (why did those silly Romans colonise land north of 50N?) is exacerbated by the strong tendency for dull, wet Atlantic-driven weather in the weeks around the solstice. The 21 years from 1990-2010 did frequently produce something more interesting in December, though.

At a guess (unscientific) we'll have an Atlantic stormfest from around Dec 10 - Jan 20, but the end of the winter will offer something different (partly based on the La Nina discussion upthread). I'm going for late winter being either mild and dry, or cold and dry with possibility of snow. Not sure which though.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Summer8906

[Methuselah]

Just heard John Hammond on LBC, saying that there are now increasing signs of wintry weather coming in from the East. Stay tuned. It could yet happen!

Edited November 28, 2021 by Ed Stone

[MP-R]

On 27/11/2021 at 11:44, Summer8906 said:

 

Indeed, the Burns storm ushered in probably the worst (wettest and stormiest) phase of that winter, I seem to recall some unusually benign very mild and dry weather earlier in the month. I also seem to recall the last 10 days or so of February being much more benign, warm and spring like (though not always sunny) 

 

The same dates in Feb that year brought as significant a gale in the south as in January. Late Feb into early Mar was as turbulent as the midwinter period. By all accounts, a revolting looking winter. At least the following one was much better.

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

The same dates in Feb that year brought as significant a gale in the south as in January. Late Feb into early Mar was as turbulent as the midwinter period. By all accounts, a revolting looking winter. At least the following one was much better.

Both 88-89 and 89-90 were exceptionally mild! Neither would I wish to see again..

[mountain shadow]

Just watched Gav's fantastic latest update and he reckons 63% chance of a colder Winter.

[MP-R]

On 28/11/2021 at 12:36, damianslaw said:

Both 88-89 and 89-90 were exceptionally mild! Neither would I wish to see again..

Indeed. The only saving grace of 88-89 being how much drier it was. Very boring though.

[Summer8906]

7 hours ago, MP-R said:

The same dates in Feb that year brought as significant a gale in the south as in January. Late Feb into early Mar was as turbulent as the midwinter period. By all accounts, a revolting looking winter. At least the following one was much better.

Strange, I don't remember that at all, so there was a storm on February 25th?

I do remember significant systems in Feb on Saturday 3rd (brought rumbles of thunder and, briefly, snow), Saturday 10th (very mild, rain much of the day followed by sunshine around 15.00-17.00, a day to be grateful for the nights drawing out), Sunday 11th (dull all day with drizzly rain, the day Nelson Mandela was released) and Saturday 17th (dull morning, rain briefly heavy in afternoon). But I am pretty sure  the final weekend 24th/25th was dry and mild, and there were definitely a couple of really spring like sunny days sometime after the 17th. Obviously it looks like I've forgotten something...

[MP-R]

On 28/11/2021 at 19:41, Summer8906 said:

Strange, I don't remember that at all, so there was a storm on February 25th?

I do remember significant systems in Feb on Saturday 3rd (brought rumbles of thunder and, briefly, snow), Saturday 10th (very mild, rain much of the day followed by sunshine around 15.00-17.00, a day to be grateful for the nights drawing out), Sunday 11th (dull all day with drizzly rain, the day Nelson Mandela was released) and Saturday 17th (dull morning, rain briefly heavy in afternoon). But I am pretty sure  the final weekend 24th/25th was dry and mild, and there were definitely a couple of really spring like sunny days sometime after the 17th. Obviously it looks like I've forgotten something...

Here's the 3rd, 10th and 11th:

  

Yes you're right about the lead up to the late Feb storm. There were a few springlike days during the week when London actually hit 18 degrees. The change was abrupt though, from this on the 23rd to this on the 25th.

 

 

Anyway, hopefully we won't be seeing too many of any of these charts in winter 2021/22. True turbo-charged winter type of stuff.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Strange, I don't remember that at all, so there was a storm on February 25th?

I do remember significant systems in Feb on Saturday 3rd (brought rumbles of thunder and, briefly, snow), Saturday 10th (very mild, rain much of the day followed by sunshine around 15.00-17.00, a day to be grateful for the nights drawing out), Sunday 11th (dull all day with drizzly rain, the day Nelson Mandela was released) and Saturday 17th (dull morning, rain briefly heavy in afternoon). But I am pretty sure  the final weekend 24th/25th was dry and mild, and there were definitely a couple of really spring like sunny days sometime after the 17th. Obviously it looks like I've forgotten something...

Doris wasn't it

[Summer8906]

24 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Here's the 3rd, 10th and 11th:

  

Yes you're right about the lead up to the late Feb storm. There were a few springlike days during the week when London actually hit 18 degrees. The change was abrupt though, from this on the 23rd to this on the 25th.

 

 

Anyway, hopefully we won't be seeing too many of any of these charts in winter 2021/22. True turbo-charged winter type of stuff.

Thanks for the charts. Can see how the chart for the 3rd might have produced briefly wintry conditions with thunder (about the only such conditions we had after December 11th!) - that small mini-northerly behind the low also produced a rare cold sunny afternoon. I don't think it was the first thunder I heard in the 90s though; I seem to recall thunder one evening in the previous week, possibly Wed 31st. (The rest of 1990 was, by contrast, very un-thundery).

The charts for the 10th/11th are surprisingly cyclonic, as I remember the rain being moderate at best, and the sun came out late on the 10th as I said with no sign of shower activity. I'd have guessed around 1010-1015mb in the south. But yes, looks like I forgot the 25th/26th event. Sat 24th was definitely still benign so an abrupt change indeed!

Edited November 28, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Doris wasn't it

Wrong year, I'm sure I remember the name Doris and it was 2017!

[jmp223420]

18 hours ago, MP-R said:

Indeed. The only saving grace of 88-89 being how much drier it was. Very boring though.

I was born 22-4-89 and I my mum recalls it being very snowy? (Glasgow). Is that true, or was that just the morphine

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, jmp223420 said:

I was born 22-4-89 and I my mum recalls it being very snowy? (Glasgow). Is that true, or was that just the morphine

Possible. Following the mild winter, April was unusually cold and there was settling snow in the south in the first week. The rest of the month was less cold but still colder than average, so quite possible there was further snow in Scotland.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

On 29/11/2021 at 10:07, jmp223420 said:

I was born 22-4-89 and I my mum recalls it being very snowy? (Glasgow). Is that true, or was that just the morphine

The stats don't suggest it was horrendously wintry 

Climate Glasgow Airport (April 1989) - Climate data (31400)

EN.TUTIEMPO.NET

---

Climate Glasgow Airport (April 1989) - Climate data (31400)

 ... but it was certainly chilly with a northerly of sorts descending over the northern UK.

  

[fUnKy]

On 17/11/2021 at 21:07, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Just a quick word around so called once in a hundred year events like the much quoted 2010.  Once in a hundred years means it would normally be 'expected to happen' once in a hundred years. It dosn't mean that you have to wait a hundred years for it to happen again.

As an example the exceptionally destructive storms of October 1987 and January 1990 were quotedat the time as as being once in 200 year events and yet happened just 4 years apart..

I'm not for a moment suggesting that the upcoming cold spell will be a repeat of Nov/Dec 2010 but just pointing out that it being quoted a once in 100 year event does not preclude it happening again in a much shorter space of time.

Return periods can be less useful than annual excedence probability.. we get this all the time with clients.

1 in 100 has a probability of 1%, 1 in 20 5% etc. of occurring in any year.

Edited November 29, 2021 by fUnKy

[AmatuerMet1963]

Happy new year, but for the likes om in Manchester, its been a dire month with only 27 hours of sunlight the whole of December. I wish I moved back to the drier and home county of Sussex many years ago, before I reaoized my arthritis had got so bad, I'm nearly houeband. I put this down the damp area of Lancashire. I never had arthritis while I lived in Sussex. In fact, my parents, my relations now all gone, never had arthritis. None in my family ever had it. And my father was still walking normally up to his death at 73 from a heart condition. There is plenty of action across the pond, but in Europe, we can't really say we have had a winter at all. In fact spring bulbs in our court tubs are already sprouting tips 2 Months before they should. With Russian incursions now a thing of the past as siberian land masses heat up due to forest fires past, the melting perma frost lakes leaking methane, all adds up to the loss of the Beast from the East which was normal for decades and gave us the winter of 63 among others. I have seen no pointers from anywhere of any real cold 4 to 5 week period of ice and snow nationwide.. The planet is dying because of higher temps. Hibernating insects and mammals, and tortoises are unable to sleep. Making them very weak, without food, before they go back into hibernation. Insect decline even in my area in Lancashire was alarming, not even any wasps, no bees, butterfly's or our usual spring birds arrived. Like house Martins swallow and chiff chaffs. 5here has been to much urbanisation outside our court, a green land with 15 high trees in it was partly cut down for a huge junction that includes a concrete cycleway, they dug up the course of the path that includes 5000 daffodils and crocuses. The more they take way green and trees the faster the local warming and loss of habitat gets to a tipping point where species are going under unabated just like in Netflix "don't look up", which was a eye-opener of what climate scientists say they are up against every day.  I know a lot of you come here to share charts and occlusion and more. But to be honest we need to forget these small matters and work towards holding big companies and countries that are in denial, to be educated. The tornados in kentucky actually outdid the number of CGI Tornados seen in the Sci film of 2004 Day after tomorrow by 30 to   only six seen in the film... Well depressing winter, fog rain and warm conditions makes this the third winter in a row never saw one flake of snow in Wigan/Liverpool/Preston area. Newspapers screaming headlines about snow only to read further they just mean Northern Scotland only

[AmatuerMet1963]

On 28/11/2021 at 12:36, damianslaw said:

Both 88-89 and 89-90 were exceptionally mild! Neither would I wish to see again..

That was the year I set off by car from Dover to drive the 1700 miles to Vienna to see real snow at Salzburg. I might as well not hired snow chains skis or thermals, as there wasn't any snow on the alps and flowers were out on the 19th December 1989. It was 55%f many climatologists say this was one of the early warning signs of what we have now.. Which of course we're ignored. But spoilt a very expensive holiday of 3 weeks in Austria not seeing a flake of snow