Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

On 24/09/2021 at 16:50, Dorsetbred said:

Interesting in comparison to how many different resources are going for a FRONT end loaded winter yet using you prognosis it looks to be a tail end loaded winter. All to play for on that basis then..Thanks for the time and effort you put in to produce this prognosis, let's see who comes put the winner then..

Maybe lets hope both predictions are right and we end up with a fully loaded winter.

[Stu_London]

In some ways with everything that is going on, it might be better not to have a prolonged severe spell akin to December 2010 as the country might be pushed to the brink.

Perhaps a very severe event, like January 1987, that only lasts a few days in amongst an otherwise largely benign winter would be enough excitement for cold and snow lovers, without putting the country under too much pressure. 

Sadly, weather is not available to order, so what will be, will be. But it would be rather ironic if we did get prolonged or multiple severe weather when as a nation we are at our most vulnerable to it in quite some time. 

Of course, severe winter weather isn't all about cold. Being battered by gales and rain for months on end could be just as destructive and is probably a lot more likely than cold snowy weather.

 

[SLEETY]

HLB seems to be disappearing as we head closer to Winter now,typical, its been here since the cold spring we had this year.

[Premiere Neige]

23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

HLB seems to be disappearing as we head closer to Winter now,typical, its been here since the cold spring we had this year.

Not necessarily on a permanent basis though. This is November on CFS (yes, yes......I know):

[carinthian]

First indications from the big models projecting above average temps for winter 21/22 for much of Central / Eastern Europe. Neutral winter temps for NW Europe . Colder incursions especially the British Isles and Scandinavia with the greatest risk of snowfall in the region Scotland through to Central Scandinavia. All modeling on the effect of La Nina and projected 300mb jet flow across North America and into the British Isles. Early days and of course taken with a pinch of pessimism salt at this stage !

C

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

HLB seems to be disappearing as we head closer to Winter now,typical, its been here since the cold spring we had this year.

Yes we experienced this in April/May but not in the summer months...

[Penrith Snow]

Headline in tonights Guardian Newspaper states "UK and US Meteorologist expecting colder than average winter in Northern Europe due to an anticipated weak polar vortex". Not sure where the reporter got his info from but TBH it reflects my own thoughts, the article highlights February 2022 as being of particular risk for severe weather. Interesting 

Edited September 25, 2021 by Penrith Snow

[SqueakheartLW]

On 25/09/2021 at 21:20, Penrith Snow said:

Headline in tonights Guardian Newspaper states "UK and US Meteorologist expecting colder than average winter in Northern Europe due to an anticipated weak polar vortex". Not sure where the reporter got his info from but TBH it reflects my own thoughts, the article highlights February 2022 as being of particular risk for severe weather. Interesting 

Maybe they saw my 5th winter update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 23/09/2021 and how it featured a very cold February and decided to make it news in the Guardian.

[Cambrian]

Carinthian and Mike Poole have been discussing mid-latitude Quasi-Resonant Amplification over on the Model Output Discussion thread. Mike had read a paper and given an excellent  summary of it, and regard of it with respect to the patterns we observe and have been observing this year in particular. 

I had seen the same paper, but wouldn’t have been able to make the sense of it that Mike did. 

I also came across this paper by Michael Mann and colleagues from 2018. I’d like to fool myself that I can follow the main gist of it.

 

What I did take from it was that it specifically mentions an association of the QRA event of 2010 with both floods in Pakistan and a Russian heatwave in that same year. Other years have had one or the other, but very few years have had both notable floods in Pakistan and a notable heatwave in Russia.

Interestingly, 2021 has, and so is to this point at least, clearly a striking QRA year in both pattern and observed effects, and as we look forward to the coming winter, these strong similarities with 2010 could well be worth noting. 

[Catacol]

On 25/09/2021 at 21:20, Penrith Snow said:

Headline in tonights Guardian Newspaper states "UK and US Meteorologist expecting colder than average winter in Northern Europe due to an anticipated weak polar vortex". Not sure where the reporter got his info from but TBH it reflects my own thoughts, the article highlights February 2022 as being of particular risk for severe weather. Interesting 

All far distant at present, but I suspect it is a simple extrapolation of the ECM forecast of a weak vortex in December and taking into account usual lag impacts. We will wait and see if we get blocking in the right place to promote vortex disruption through Oct/Nov and in particular whether an Aleutian Low can buck the forecasts and hold on. Profile of Nina will also be key because we would ideally like to see the MJO get into 7/8 with decent amplification rather than be blocked by a Nina edging too far west. All to play for right now.

[jules216]

Provisional analogs were all going for this signal in October with quite a strong signal of Scandi/Western Europe high, one set of analogs(2007,2011,2016) and second personal favorite(1989,1992,1995,1998,1999,2005,2010) have basically identical look. Its not happening though as the Eastern Europe/Western Russian high is showing its ugly face as per usual set up of past autumns/winters, only good year with pattern match is looking like being 1998.

[Don]

12 hours ago, jules216 said:Its not happening though as the Eastern Europe/Western Russian high is showing its ugly face as per usual set up of past autumns/winters, only good year with pattern match is looking like being 1998.

Sounds a bit grim, albeit still early days?

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Sounds a bit grim, albeit still early days?

October 1998 from memory was a very typical. Wet and atlantic driven with some chilly weather at times.

[Don]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

October 1998 from memory was a very typical. Wet and atlantic driven with some chilly weather at times.

Yes indeed, remember it being stormy at times.  However, don’t want that pattern to persist into winter.

[SqueakheartLW]

On 27/09/2021 at 21:27, damianslaw said:

October 1998 from memory was a very typical. Wet and atlantic driven with some chilly weather at times.

 

On 27/09/2021 at 21:31, Don said:

Yes indeed, remember it being stormy at times.  However, don’t want that pattern to persist into winter.

One other thing that matches us up to 1998 is that it is the 2nd year of solar cycle 23 just as 2021 is the 2nd year of solar cycle 25. Not only that, both odd solar cycles so have the same solar magnetic patterns too. Hope this isn't a sign that a winter 1998/99 is on the way as that one was generally milder overall but at least it contained a few colder northerly snaps and I remember at least a decent frontal snow even in January and a week of snow in February despite the mild winter.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

One other thing that matches us up to 1998 is that it is the 2nd year of solar cycle 23 just as 2021 is the 2nd year of solar cycle 25. Not only that, both odd solar cycles so have the same solar magnetic patterns too. Hope this isn't a sign that a winter 1998/99 is on the way as that one was generally milder overall but at least it contained a few colder northerly snaps and I remember at least a decent frontal snow even in January and a week of snow in February despite the mild winter.

1998/99 was also a La Nina winter, albeit the upcoming event probably won’t be as strong as back then?  Not sure what state the QBO was in 1998/99 but have a feeling it was westerly?

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

1998/99 was also a La Nina winter, albeit the upcoming event probably won’t be as strong as back then?  Not sure what state the QBO was in 1998/99 but have a feeling it was westerly?

November 98 was quite cold. A fair amount of frosty foggy weather mid-month I remember. There was a snowy northerly early in December but much of the month was mild wet and windy with one or two shortlived polar outbreaks. 

[Don]

32 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

November 98 was quite cold. A fair amount of frosty foggy weather mid-month I remember. There was a snowy northerly early in December but much of the month was mild wet and windy with one or two shortlived polar outbreaks. 

I remember November 98 being fairly cold and I think there was a bit of snow, too.  I was hoping it was a sign of things to come for the winter, but nope…..

[jules216]

1 hour ago, Don said:

1998/99 was also a La Nina winter, albeit the upcoming event probably won’t be as strong as back then?  Not sure what state the QBO was in 1998/99 but have a feeling it was westerly?

It was -qbo at 30hPa level,turning +qbo higher up, also it had a -1 PDO in autumn like nowa And it was moderate Nina -1 to 1.5 ONI later on. This year Nina can drop to ONi -0.8 - 1.3 borderline weak/moderate.

 

[sundog]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

November 98 was quite cold. A fair amount of frosty foggy weather mid-month I remember. There was a snowy northerly early in December but much of the month was mild wet and windy with one or two shortlived polar outbreaks. 

Think Xmas eve 98 there was a big storm if I remember right. 

Edit there was a big storm on the 26th, not the 24th . I got confused with Xmas eve 97.

Edited September 27, 2021 by sundog

[damianslaw]

41 minutes ago, Don said:

I remember November 98 being fairly cold and I think there was a bit of snow, too.  I was hoping it was a sign of things to come for the winter, but 

I'm more positive about winter prospects when cold in November comes courtesy of arctic airstreams or an unusual cold easterly or north easterly rather than anticyclonic cold as was the case in 98, also 2016 to an extent. Diving troughs with cold NW blasts are a positive signal as well. The cold in late Nov 08 was the first time since 96-97 I thought mmm this winter might be different..and it was compared to everything since early winter 96-97..

 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, jules216 said:

It was -qbo at 30hPa level,turning +qbo higher up, also it had a -1 PDO in autumn like nowa And it was moderate Nina -1 to 1.5 ONI later on. This year Nina can drop to ONi -0.8 - 1.3 borderline weak/moderate.

 

Thanks for the info, Jules216.  Similarities between 2021 and 1998 are a little too close for comfort, but hey ho! 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Thanks for the info, Jules216.  Similarities between 2021 and 1998 are a little too close for comfort, but hey ho! 

This year has been very different to 1998 though which started with a super El Nino and very mild winter. The summer was much more disturbed than the one just gone. May brought an excellent lengthy sunny warm spell unlike this year.

[jules216]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This year has been very different to 1998 though which started with a super El Nino and very mild winter. The summer was much more disturbed than the one just gone. May brought an excellent lengthy sunny warm spell unlike this year.

Sure it was different I also never had 1998 as a summer analog either but the atmospheric state in autumn is shaping up to be quite close to that year and certainly early Oct matches well with that year

[jules216]

Also have a look at how close re MJO is this year to 1998, starts with phase 5 ends in 2 similar amplitude