Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Beanz]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

John Smith!

Really, @Beanz? From a tory-supporting tabloid toilet-roll?! I think it's just the usual idiocy from Nathan Rao!

I wasn’t referring to the paper themselves being politically motivated, I meant from the Govt. using the weather as a political tool - sorry, my response wasn’t clear.  

Im not particularly bothered about the political bias when it comes to discussing the weather though, irrelevant.  

Edited October 18, 2021 by Beanz

[Premiere Neige]

7 hours ago, Simon M said:

 

To be fair to the Express (lol), the top front page (Worst Freeze for 20 Years) dated January 2013 wasn't completely off the mark, since that late winter and early spring were very cold.  That was probably an example of a stopped clock being right once a day though.

To be fair.....a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Azazel]

I'm going to plump for a front-loaded winter because we are due one eventually. Law of averages and all that. 

I remember 2011-12 - I think there was some snow in December in the run up to Xmas.

[throwoff]

So the newspapers appear to be going for -

Massive snowfall, gridlock, weeks of blizzards.
Mild winter with next to no cold. 

It is an interesting mix, almost like the majority of papers are owned by the same few people and get different papers to run different stories...

[mpkio2]

Does anyone have links for 2021's achieved SST Anomaly images? 

[Simon M]

5 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

To be fair.....a broken clock is right twice a day.

I was thinking of digital clocks.  You may have heard of them...

[lassie23]

I'm going for a 2010 style winter which will be over by January the 8th, and smarch will be sweltering with outbreaks of queen wasps.

[Downburst]

Didn’t read this in the UK tabloids, I mean papers, but posting anyway as it’s a weather forum

 

 

 

La NINA is now even more certain to deepen and this helps back up a more active jet stream exit from North America to our locale on the average. So NAO positive. However doesn’t discount the odd buckle and block and of course the possibility of SSW delivering something cold in NW Europe, but that’s not able to be foreseen really. All we can say is the upstream North American weather is very likely to be as the long range models predict.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 18/10/2021 at 19:37, Downburst said:

Didn’t read this in the UK tabloids, I mean papers, but posting anyway as it’s a weather forum

 

 

 

La NINA is now even more certain to deepen and this helps back up a more active jet stream exit from North America to our locale on the average. So NAO positive. However doesn’t discount the odd buckle and block and of course the possibility of SSW delivering something cold in NW Europe, but that’s not able to be foreseen really. All we can say is the upstream North American weather is very likely to be as the long range models predict.

 

 

We don’t want it below -1. Anywhere between there and 0 is workable.

[Mike Poole]

6 hours ago, mpkio2 said:

Does anyone have links for 2021's achieved SST Anomaly images? 

Metociel’s SST charts have an archive function here:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel vous propose une carte d'analyse des températures de l'eau de la mer autour des côtes françaises (SST France)

Sorry doesn’t seem to have embedded the link properly, but you can find on Meteociel under ‘Temperature mer’ on the left hand side.  

Edited October 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Metociel’s SST charts have an archive function here:

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel vous propose une carte d'analyse des températures de l'eau de la mer autour des côtes françaises (SST France)

Sorry doesn’t seem to have embedded the link properly, but you can find on Meteociel under ‘Temperature mer’ on the left hand side.  

Definitely not "temperature merd" though!  

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, Azazel said:

I'm going to plump for a front-loaded winter because we are due one eventually. Law of averages and all that. 

I remember 2011-12 - I think there was some snow in December in the run up to Xmas.

2011-12 was a mild one out of the 2007-12 era. The Christmas period was the mildest.

[SqueakheartLW]

Just out of my own curiosity I decided to do some October 500mb anomaly pattern matching to see whether there is any link between this and the following winter patterns. I grouped up the winters into the following categories:

• Generally Mild Winters - Winters that are generally at least 1C or more above their respective long term mean overall through December to February
• Generally Average Winters - Winters that are generally close to their respective long term  mean overall through December to February
• Generally Cold Winters - Winters that are generally at least -1C or more below their respective long term mean overall through December to February
• Generally Mild Middle Loaded Winters - Generally mild winters overall that like the above average at least 1C above their respective December to February means but have a January that is generally a lot less mild than the December or February
• Generally Average Middle Loaded Winters - Generally close to their respective December to February long term mean but the January is colder than average whilst the December and February are above average
• Generally Cold Middle Loaded Winters - Generally cold winters overall at least -1C below their respective December to February means but the January is much colder than the other 2 months
• Generally Mild Back Loaded Winters - Winters that start out very mild overall and end close to average for their time by the February
• Generally Average Back Loaded Winters - Winters that start out a bit above their long term average in December and end below average by the February
• Generally Cold Back Loaded Winters - Winters that start close to average and just keep getting colder until February when the real cold hits
• Generally Mild Front Loaded Winters - Winters that start out close to average and then just turn into a mild fest as they progress
• Generally Average Front Loaded Winters - Winters that start out with cold potential and promise in December and then just spoil themselves as they progress to end up above average by February
• Generally Cold Front Loaded Winters - Winters that start out in the deep freeze and then just get less cold as they progress and end up close to average by February

October 500mb anomaly charts based on the above categories

Octobers before Generally mild winters

A number of years here so had to group them up into years between 1836 - 1948 and also 1948 to present. In the older Octobers we see a general pattern of a mid Atlantic ridge and European trough giving an increased chance of N or NE winds during October. The newer one sees a blocking feature to our NW.

Neither looks to be a current match to out current October 500mb pattern so a big sigh of relief here if you are a coldie as this potentially rules out a generally mild winter overall.

Octobers before Generally Average Winters

Seems Octobers before generally close to average CET winters feature a lot of northern blocking around Scandinavia in particular and a lot of southern European troughing. Our current October pattern is a bit closer to this one compared with the milder option above. This means we cannot rule out a close to average winter CET overall but will we be front loaded, middle loaded, back loaded or just generally average? Maybe Our current pattern could matchup better with one of the following options.

Octobers before Generally Cold Winters

It would seem a total washout October is a good sign a cold winter is on the way when I input the years where the winters had generally below average CET's throughout. We are no where close to this match at present

Octobers before Generally Mild Middle Loaded Winters

Time now to focus down on a more specific pattern for the winter based on Octobers

It would seem an anticyclonic signal for October is a possible sign of a colder January coming up in the following winter but an overall mild winter signal. Our current October pattern isn't that close to this but we do see above average heights not far from the UK so far so we can't rule out this middle loaded January cold in a mild winter signal

Octobers before Generally Average Middle Loaded Winters

Although not a perfect match I can see some similarities between the October patterns and our current October pattern. Both feature above average heights to our NE as well as W like in the current chart and a bit of troughing in Europe. Perhaps a close to average winter with a cold January could be on the cards this year.

Octobers before Generally Cold Middle Loaded Winters

This is simply way off at present as we are not under a deep European trough that extends right back up to Russia. This is the worst match of the 3 in this set.

Octobers before Generally Mild Back Loaded Winters

How will the back loaded section fare compared with the others

Although not a particularly good match for historic Octobers the more recent Octobers are not that far away from the current October pattern. Not a good sign if you want a cold winter but a back loaded signal is also present along with the possible middle loaded signal

Octobers before Generally Average Back Loaded Winters

We are simply way off here for the average back loaded signal. Too much troughing near the UK both on the past and more recent October 500mb charts. Maybe not such a back loaded signal after all but we'll see what the colder back loaded signal brings up

Octobers before Generally Cold Back Loaded Winters

Not a particularly good match either although both do feature ridging near to or to the W of the UK and the European trough is there although deeper on the historic charts compared with the current situation. This brings the current scores to the following:

Octobers before Generally Mild Front Loaded Winters

Now this isn't a long way off, at least not for the above average heights signal out to out west and NW but there is much deeper troughing to our E and S on the October pattern matches for the mild front loaded signal compared with our current situation. Lets hope we can move away from this signal as this is a bad sign for the winter overall if you want anything colder.

Octobers before Generally Average Front Loaded Winters

Although the European trough is much deeper here there is a lot of similarities between the two charts. We have above average heights both to our W and NE like in the current situation and it wouldn't take a big shift to get close to this pattern if we got a bit more mid Atlantic ridging setting up between now and the end of the month and set up a W Russia high too. Maybe this is a possible route we will be going down and a cold December signal could be on the cards.

Octobers before Generally Cold Front Loaded Winters

Now I like the look of this pattern match. Looks very close to our current situation. The European trough is less deep which is closer to how things are right now and the ridging looks to me more in the correct positions. One ridge out in the Atlantic, Another to the NE and one over E Canada like in the historic chart. This is also the signal for the colder winters too and a front loaded signal. This has very much put confusion into the scores in the end

Edited October 18, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

2011-12 was a mild one out of the 2007-12 era. The Christmas period was the mildest.

Must've been 2012-13

[sundog]

We will get a bit of frost in December and that will be that. That will be our winter. I'm expecting this winter to be a write off. 

[sebastiaan1973]

Dit betekent dat we in de loop van de maanden november, december en januari een weertype moeten gaan krijgen met vaak hogedrukgebieden in het hoge noorden. Dat kan zowel in de buurt van IJsland en Groenland als boven Scandinavië zijn. met winden vaak uit richtingen tussen noord en oost en kansen op enkele uitbraken van arctische lucht. Is de wind noordelijk, dan kan het regelmatig tot neerslag (sneeuw) komen (zoals ook in december 2010), heeft de wind meer een oostelijke component, dan is het vaker droog en kan ook de zon er mooi doorkomen.

Risico’s
Risico’s zijn er ook. Het kan bijvoorbeeld gebeuren dat de poolwervel, die nu een zwakke fase ingaat, zich in de novembermaand herstelt, leidend tot een herstel van de westcirculatie op termijn met dan een toenemende wisselvalligheid en een doorbraak van zacht weer. Een ander risico is het doorbreken van een scenario a la de winter van 1963, met een langdurig geblokkeerde situatie en in dat geval bijzonder koud winterweer in een groot deel van Europa. De kans op een doorbrekende westcirculatie wordt vooralsnog op 25 procent ingeschat, de kans op het koudste scenario op 20 procent. Het hiervoor beschreven scenario heeft 55 procent kans, zo denkt WCS. https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2021/vroege-winterverwachting-koud-en-droog

--------------

Winter 2020 forecast by World Climate Service. They expect a cold, dry winter for NW-Europe. 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, sundog said:

We will get a bit of frost in December and that will be that. That will be our winter. I'm expecting this winter to be a write off. 

Don't forget the frost returning in April!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am hoping for some nice crisp, frosty days with blue skies. I shan't hold my breath though as quite often when we get high pressure during the winter months, it leads to anticyclonic gloom conditions instead. But here's hoping anyway as you just never know!

Edited October 19, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[HafrenLMP1]

2 hours ago, sundog said:

We will get a bit of frost in December and that will be that. That will be our winter. I'm expecting this winter to be a write off. 

Ooh, that's something to look forward to; how lucky we will be......

 

Anything but endless wet & windy please.....Weather that is 'usable' for outdoor activities.

[Summer8906]

20 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I'm going for a 2010 style winter which will be over by January the 8th, and smarch will be sweltering with outbreaks of queen wasps.

To be fair 2010/11 wasn't quite over until Feb 1st, the second half of Jan was mostly cold and dry though the first half was wet and somewhat mild. We then regressed into late autumn for a few weeks before spring arrived at the end of February and summer by mid-April. And autumn by June...

Edited October 19, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, HafrenLMP1 said:

Ooh, that's something to look forward to; how lucky we will be......

 

Anything but endless wet & windy please.....Weather that is 'usable' for outdoor activities.

Drier and sunnier than normal with average temps, and one notable snow event, lying on the ground for around a week - plus many frosts in Dec/Jan but a milder and still sunny Feb would be ideal.

Preceded by a November that's half sunny and unusually warm, and half sunny and frosty.

Gut feeling, though, is mild and wet Jan (because it always seems to happen in even years - completely unscientific I know) with a colder end; a colder December than of late with frequent frosty and sunny weather, and a Feb which has a mix of mild and cold spells.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Summer8906

[cheeky_monkey]

looking at the latest set of winter charts and the ENSO the only place in the Northern Hemisphere predicted to get a colder than average winter is...yep you guessed it is Canada..particularly Western Canada

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Drier and sunnier than normal with average temps, and one notable snow event, lying on the ground for around a week - plus many frosts in Dec/Jan but a milder and still sunny Feb would be ideal.

Preceded by a November that's half sunny and unusually warm, and half sunny and frosty.

Gut feeling, though, is mild and wet Jan (because it always seems to happen in even years - completely unscientific I know) with a colder end; a colder December than of late with frequent frosty and sunny weather, and a Feb which has a mix of mild and cold spells.

January 2010 a big exception! 

[RJBingham]

here's my tongue cheek winter predictions

pre winter November, showers of tattered vortex posts, and 2010 references

early January, a storm of posts noting that 63 was a back loaded winter

end of Feb. a fog of posts declaring winter isn't over until the equinox.

middle of March, a supercell of reminders that snow is more likely at Easter, than Christmas. 

 

I was going to include Winter is over posts, but that would be in late summer 

Edited October 19, 2021 by RJBingham

[Summer8906]

On 17/10/2021 at 20:18, Wold Topper said:

The Express

Yes, the xenophobic BS on one of those front pages is perhaps the prime thing that makes the Express only worthy of toilet roll material - if that.

I am amazed they are using Celsius though. The Express are normally obsessed with Fahrenheit - because anything which was widely adopted after 1970 in the UK is automatically evil and subversive in their eyes. I'm amazed they haven't tried to bring the non-decimal pound back.

And as for the mild winter thing - well it will make the Government's hole they've dug for themselves a little less deep. So of course they are going to promote it. Might happen, but might not.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Summer8906