Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Catacol]

On 11/10/2021 at 18:08, jules216 said:

Why bother with UKMO if this is how spring 2021 panned out against forecast with same lead time? Every year these seasonal models get thrown around like swiss rolls yet they even cant get 7 days forecast right,

Evidence once again that modelling tends to reject chances of an SSW, and therefore when an SSW hits all forecasts go out the window. 

[Dorsetbred]

On 14/10/2021 at 20:58, SqueakheartLW said:

8th winter 2021/2022 update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 14/10/2021

As per usual we have reached my winter update time again and after the let down of an update for coldies last week lets hope the CFS can get us back on track again for a colder outlook.

As you can see above we get a better idea of the recent trends vs the previous trends.

December 2021 - As noted in several updates December 2021 has generally come out as the mildest or least cold month overall and the 3 update rolling averages generally show it to be the least cold or mildest month but the overall trend has been to shift from colder to milder unfortunately

January 2022 - A bit more reliable to produce a colder outcome compared with December 2021 but the trend had been getting worse for coldies until the latest update pushed the 3 update mean back into colder than average territory again although only by a modest negative anomaly though

February 2022 - This had been the most reliable month predicted to be cold but last weeks very mild February 2022 update has really put a dent into that colder anomaly as it works its way through the rolling means. It will still feature in next weeks rolling average too so the anomaly is unlikely to drop very much next week either if we get another colder February 2022 update.

March 2022 - With producing colder anomalies for every update it is now no surprise that March 2022 comes away with the coldest anomaly 3 update rolling mean. Perhaps we are going to get a back loaded winter and a very back loaded one too if CFS is to be believed at present

Overall - The only bad point for coldies here is how we have started out colder and have in general been getting less cold overall throughout and last weeks mild update doesn't help matters here as it is included in the latest 2 rolling averages and will also feature next week too.

Interesting when looking back to see the different opinions of it being a front end loaded winter!

[Catacol]

6 hours ago, jules216 said:

 Once again there will be people hyping the so called "potential" of that Ural blocking and hoping for a 2 week cold snap in February. 

 

Hi Jules - but is this not really where we are now with cc? There will be variations of course, but it seems to me that ocean warming and perhaps also ice retreat has created a long wave bias towards high pressure over Europe and a general predominance of a +NAO. In this context, unless we get a wild card moment like Dec 2010, our best chance of a significant shake up in that pattern in a way that might draw air down over Europe from Asia or Scandinavia is to look for SSW events that shift and break the vortex. With that in mind European high pressure is not a disaster though it probably wrecks Novembers. Cold air in March has started to become semi regular, and this may represent a shift towards a shorter but later in the calendar European winter season caused by regular strat impacts. Are these getting more frequent in a warming world? Perhaps.

The ocean profile in the North Pacific suggests to me that low pressure over the Aleutians can perhaps once again combine with European high pressure to provide punches of warm air to the heart of the vortex. ENSO conditions are going to be fairly similar in flavour to last year, but this time around we have an eQBO which is a benefit. For my part hopes for the season lie with an SSW, the timing of which will depend on the strength of that European High in November and perhaps also on the timing and amplitude of the MJO, forever an element in our forecasting armoury that seems damned hard to predict. The rhythm and amplitude of torques always gives us a chance of increasing the strength of these punches.

I won't be going live on any predictions quite yet. A fool's errand in any case as we all know seasonal forecasting remains an enigma.....but last year we did get the general trend right through December and on into January in terms of the strat warming that the November 500hpa patterns suggested would occur. It went a bit pear shaped when the vortex didn't play ball afterwards! I wouldn't be surprised if a similar shape to the season happens again this year, but the strength of the Euro High will be a key feature in trying to setup the midwinter "potential" you refer to. If November produces a -NAO setup on the back of a weakened vortex then I fear the vortex bounces back up and insufficient warming will mean a mild and wet winter generally. A warm November, perhaps wet for the UK and blocked for Europe, will do much to raise my spirits for the season as a whole.

But as has been said countless times - Dec 2010 shows how unexpected events can still occur, and March 2018 shows the same in terms of SSW impacts. And that's why we are all here.....hoping for rogue elements to trash the default cc setup and keep us entertained. 

[sebastiaan1973]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

Hi Jules - but is this not really where we are now with cc? There will be variations of course, but it seems to me that ocean warming and perhaps also ice retreat has created a long wave bias towards high pressure over Europe and a general predominance of a +NAO. In this context, unless we get a wild card moment like Dec 2010, our best chance of a significant shake up in that pattern in a way that might draw air down over Europe from Asia or Scandinavia is to look for SSW events that shift and break the vortex. With that in mind European high pressure is not a disaster though it probably wrecks Novembers. Cold air in March has started to become semi regular, and this may represent a shift towards a shorter but later in the calendar European winter season caused by regular strat impacts. Are these getting more frequent in a warming world? Perhaps.

The ocean profile in the North Pacific suggests to me that low pressure over the Aleutians can perhaps once again combine with European high pressure to provide punches of warm air to the heart of the vortex. ENSO conditions are going to be fairly similar in flavour to last year, but this time around we have an eQBO which is a benefit. For my part hopes for the season lie with an SSW, the timing of which will depend on the strength of that European High in November and perhaps also on the timing and amplitude of the MJO, forever an element in our forecasting armoury that seems damned hard to predict. The rhythm and amplitude of torques always gives us a chance of increasing the strength of these punches.

I won't be going live on any predictions quite yet. A fool's errand in any case as we all know seasonal forecasting remains an enigma.....but last year we did get the general trend right through December and on into January in terms of the strat warming that the November 500hpa patterns suggested would occur. It went a bit pear shaped when the vortex didn't play ball afterwards! I wouldn't be surprised if a similar shape to the season happens again this year, but the strength of the Euro High will be a key feature in trying to setup the midwinter "potential" you refer to. If November produces a -NAO setup on the back of a weakened vortex then I fear the vortex bounces back up and insufficient warming will mean a mild and wet winter generally. A warm November, perhaps wet for the UK and blocked for Europe, will do much to raise my spirits for the season as a whole.

But as has been said countless times - Dec 2010 shows how unexpected events can still occur, and March 2018 shows the same in terms of SSW impacts. And that's why we are all here.....hoping for rogue elements to trash the default cc setup and keep us entertained. 

Don't forget the warm lob of water in the Northern Pacific since a couple of years. 

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1448376040305397762/photo/1

The models for the winter. Thanks to Simon Lee. Here you can see UKMO December, January and February seperately.

Edited October 15, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Hotspur62]

Some great posts on this thread as we approach winter and LRF don’t look too positive if cold and snow is your thing in the U.K.Still too early imho to call whether it will be mild or cold and tbh I think forecasting 10 days ahead is hard enough but there are a number of factors that have struck me on not only this winter but future winters for the U.K..I have always felt the weather is cyclical and we have warmer periods of 25-30 years and then maybe slightly cooler periods.To a degree this I feel still happens but the higher emissions over the last 40 years globally seem to be overiding these cycles and this seems a worrying trend.The colder winters of 2009-2013 are 10 years ago now and since 2013 the colder spells and lack of snow ,especially in the south are evidence of that(barring BFTE IN 2018 and that was first week of March).We really need Mother Nature to give us a helping hand with a few large volcanic eruptions that may act as a coolant to help stem the steady increases in temperatures (obviously without any loss of life or livelihoods).We(humans) also need to continue the long journey to become greener and carbon neutral ASAP it’s as simple as that,otherwise seeing snow(especially in the south) will become a rarity of probably once in 10 years as opposed to maybe once every 2/3 years atm.I apologise if this is in wrong thread and I have gone off on a bit of a tangent but I love winter and threads on NW that come with it.I have been a folllower for 9 years now and am in awe of some of the knowledge and wealth of expertise on weather patterns and forecasts etc.We seem to have a number of things that in theory look promising for maybe an average/colder winter in U.K. LIKE a weak La Niña,-IOD,An EQBO and yet all LRFs seem to maybe discount these factors?Only time will tell but if we have a week of cold weather with a little snow on the ground down here I will be happy-that equates to about 8%(7 out of 90 days of winter)!

 

Enjoy the winter and for the majority on here let’s hope it is a trend bucking one and more akin to 2009-2013 as opposed to the last 7/8 years.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

Hi Jules - but is this not really where we are now with cc? There will be variations of course, but it seems to me that ocean warming and perhaps also ice retreat has created a long wave bias towards high pressure over Europe and a general predominance of a +NAO. In this context, unless we get a wild card moment like Dec 2010, our best chance of a significant shake up in that pattern in a way that might draw air down over Europe from Asia or Scandinavia is to look for SSW events that shift and break the vortex. With that in mind European high pressure is not a disaster though it probably wrecks Novembers. Cold air in March has started to become semi regular, and this may represent a shift towards a shorter but later in the calendar European winter season caused by regular strat impacts. Are these getting more frequent in a warming world? Perhaps.

The ocean profile in the North Pacific suggests to me that low pressure over the Aleutians can perhaps once again combine with European high pressure to provide punches of warm air to the heart of the vortex. ENSO conditions are going to be fairly similar in flavour to last year, but this time around we have an eQBO which is a benefit. For my part hopes for the season lie with an SSW, the timing of which will depend on the strength of that European High in November and perhaps also on the timing and amplitude of the MJO, forever an element in our forecasting armoury that seems damned hard to predict. The rhythm and amplitude of torques always gives us a chance of increasing the strength of these punches.

I won't be going live on any predictions quite yet. A fool's errand in any case as we all know seasonal forecasting remains an enigma.....but last year we did get the general trend right through December and on into January in terms of the strat warming that the November 500hpa patterns suggested would occur. It went a bit pear shaped when the vortex didn't play ball afterwards! I wouldn't be surprised if a similar shape to the season happens again this year, but the strength of the Euro High will be a key feature in trying to setup the midwinter "potential" you refer to. If November produces a -NAO setup on the back of a weakened vortex then I fear the vortex bounces back up and insufficient warming will mean a mild and wet winter generally. A warm November, perhaps wet for the UK and blocked for Europe, will do much to raise my spirits for the season as a whole.

But as has been said countless times - Dec 2010 shows how unexpected events can still occur, and March 2018 shows the same in terms of SSW impacts. And that's why we are all here.....hoping for rogue elements to trash the default cc setup and keep us entertained. 

Mild wet Novembers, not a bad starting point for winter cold I feel.. always nervous when we have cold weather for any time in November.. I remember Nov 09 very mild and very wet - wouldn't want a November as wet as that, but I remember thinking mmm why are the troughs stuck over and to the west of the UK, blocked by heights to the east.. 

 

[legritter]

Hi Gang ,upcoming winter i feel could be an interesting period .I will be looking out for extremes not just in the UK  But across the whole northern hemisphere. Just one maybe two falls of snow at moderate level   say 13 to 15 cm each ,on the ground for a week each would be a good outcome for this winter .as i said in another post recently i was hoping for 46/47 .. 62/63 ,but thinking about it  dont think it would go down very well ,hardship for many many , Im not taking much notice of Long range forecasts at the moment . Cutting down on sausage baps and Stella's,  but may indulge tomorrow ,cheers gang, great forum .

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Like the look of Dec on EC ...

Very anticylonic ...

Short days, hopefully stagnant high = cold.

[Simon M]

Not looking hopeful for coldies (me included) is it.  I hope these long range forecasts are proven wrong.

[jules216]

I dont understand the feelings about cold November being bad for winter prospects. I have loads of examples here in Slovakia with cold spells that lead to cold or average good winters or even decembers in La Nina - 1995,1998,1999,2005 or 2016 to a degree. Since 2013 we had only year with good cold spell between middle of October and end of November and it was 2016 - last below average winter here.Every other year between 2013 and 2021 had very mild November and also very very mild winters following. There is a good correlation between early snowfall and subsequent snowy winter. I dont remember any winter where we didnt have snow before december that ended cold.

[Don]

4 hours ago, jules216 said:

I dont understand the feelings about cold November being bad for winter prospects. I have loads of examples here in Slovakia with cold spells that lead to cold or average good winters or even decembers in La Nina - 1995,1998,1999,2005 or 2016 to a degree. Since 2013 we had only year with good cold spell between middle of October and end of November and it was 2016 - last below average winter here.Every other year between 2013 and 2021 had very mild November and also very very mild winters following. There is a good correlation between early snowfall and subsequent snowy winter. I dont remember any winter where we didnt have snow before december that ended cold.

I think maybe it's more of a UK thing because there have been are a fair few cold Novembers followed by mild winters and a number of mild Novembers followed by cold and very cold winters.  1998/99, 1999/2000 and 2016/17 were all mild winters for the UK and 2005/06 was pretty average.  Meanwhile, November 1995 was mild in the UK and followed by a cold winter.  Then you have November 2009 which was very mild and wet, but the winter that followed was the coldest since 1978/79.  I believe November 1978 was also very mild until the final week when it turned much colder, setting up the scene for the following winter.  On the other side, November 1988 was cold with snow for some, but the winter that followed was exceptionally mild.  1993 was very cold and I think London had its first lying snow in November for many years.  However, winter 1993/94 wasn't cold overall, although it did have its moments.

Edited October 16, 2021 by Don

[Bradley in Kent]

It's hard to say in my opinion about Autumn and the following Winter. The main aspect coming to mind are SSTs, colder conditions in Autumn would take more heat from the sea which is always a good thing if you want snow later on; the warmer the sea the colder the air needs to be, plus warmer seas brings higher dew points which can scupper those marginal events. 

Of course you need the right synoptics for snow (what's the point on having cool seas if winds are from the South or West?) Next month, I'll be looking up towards the Arctic watching what those high pressures do. In 2010 we were getting clues about unusual patterns middle of November with high pressure constantly trying to build over Scandinavia and Greenland. At that time the weather here was still mild and damp until those high pressures linked up.

I don't know how I feel about such prospect though, I love cold weather but I don't think that's what we as a nation need right now what with the NHS backlog and gas prices. Perhaps a mild one with a real short intense cold spell would keep everyone happy!

[snowy weather]

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

[bluearmy]

36 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

One very would have sufficed ….

[Frostbite1980]

44 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

Strange i work for local authority in emergency planning and we have a meeting on Wednesday next week regarding what they expect the winter to be like so will wait to hear it for myself

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 16/10/2021 at 14:05, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

I best go out and buy some thermals then I guess.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 16/10/2021 at 14:42, bluearmy said:

One very would have sufficed ….

I have it on very very very very very very good authority that he has it on very very very very very very good authority that it will be a very very mild winter.

[Day 10]

On 16/10/2021 at 14:51, CreweCold said:

I best go out and buy some thermals then I guess.

Lol, my thoughts exactly.

[Cheshire Freeze]

December looking cold now on CFS

[Don]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I best go out and buy some thermals then I guess.

Don’t forget the thermal socks!

[Don]

46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

December looking cold now on CFS

Will it, won’t it?!

Edited October 16, 2021 by Don

[Mike Poole]

An article in the Times today, in the context of shortages of all manner of things, quoted Adam Scaife of the UKMO.  I rate him as the highest ranked professional in long term forecasting, right now, however much we like to have a stab at it!   But why shouldn’t we anyway, I do!

Re La Niña, Scaife said ‘It means that we get northerly or northwesterly winds, so it increases the risk of a cold snap in early winter”.  

I have been saying for a while we should be watching for this early winter, but good to see the UKMO getting on board.

The Times article suggested it wouldn’t be anything liken the BFTE 2018, and would probably lead up to a ‘mild, wet and stormy’ end to winter, according to Scaife.

I don’t think that evolution is a million miles away from what we’ve been discussing, to be honest!

Edited October 16, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

10 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

An article in the Times today, in the context of shortages of all manner of things, quoted Adam Scaife of the UKMO.  I rate him as the highest ranked professional in long term forecasting, right now, however much we like to have a stab at it!   But why shouldn’t we anyway, I do!

Re La Niña, Scaife said ‘It means that we get northerly or northwesterly winds, so it increases the risk of a cold snap in early winter”.  

I have been saying for a while we should be watching for this early winter, but good to see the UKMO getting on board.

The Times article suggested it wouldn’t be anything liken the BFTE 2018, and would probably lead up to a ‘mild, wet and stormy’ end to winter, according to Scaife.

I don’t think that evolution is a million miles away from what we’ve been discussing, to be honest!

Mike I've found the solution to the absence of meaningful precipitation should we be fortunate to chance upon another cold but dry north-easterly this winter... 

I would caution however that the following article should be classified under the extreme WTF! catagory, and apparently they were already using pinches of salt...  

RAF rainmakers 'caused 1952 flood' | UK news | The Guardian

AMP.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Unearthed documents suggest experiment triggered torrent that killed 35 in Devon disaster.

 

[blizzard81]

16 hours ago, CreweCold said:

December looking cold now on CFS

I thought it was showing cold for Dec quite a while ago. Did it go off the idea and now jumped back to the idea?