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Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

It shows anomaly of pressure, however, you have to be careful here, it does not necessarily show high pressure in those areas, particularly the first two charts. The mean pressure around those areas might be 990mb, but the forecast is higher say 995mb, it is still low pressure but pressure is higher than normal, hence the above average anomalies.

The only high pressure anomalies i take interest in are the off the scale black hole ones. 

Mind you even a slight positive anomaly of pressure is likely to produce drier conditions than average.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

I will start a seperate thread for the atmospheric River event and not sure if there is a link to colder winters or if it's just a coincidence but interesting to see those 2 years noted 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
On 22/10/2021 at 12:56, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will start a seperate thread for the atmospheric River event and not sure if there is a link to colder winters or if it's just a coincidence but interesting to see those 2 years noted 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a sort of link if you could say that. 

This would indicate in my veiw a more stronger PV than usual such as I think the case was in those years. 

Charts from 1962 December look eerily similar to now. 

Then look what happened 

archivesnh-1962-12-4-18-0.thumb.png.e0703ba491f8612f041751def1feb99f.pngarchivesnh-1962-12-16-18-0.thumb.png.ee49f92bbb3d575f69000c7ca3a6a2f3.png

archivesnh-1962-12-28-18-0.thumb.png.6e0c3f3b8a959905c24c22eafb35e450.png

A strong Arctic plunge 

Hopefully this is a sign for this Winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
On 22/10/2021 at 12:56, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will start a seperate thread for the atmospheric River event and not sure if there is a link to colder winters or if it's just a coincidence but interesting to see those 2 years noted 

 

Well if as they say we narrow this down to 1962 and 2009 then we can see some similarities to this year in some areas but differences between these two years as well. Similarities I can think of are that both are EQBO autumn's leading up to the winter and both years followed a "teaser" style of winter, 1961/62 and 2008/09.

What brings us closer to 1962 compared with 2009 is how in 1962 we had ENSO neutral on the colder side whilst 2009 was an EL Nino and ENSO Neutral on the colder side is certainly a lot closer to a weak La Nina signal.

Doesn't mean we'll get a 1962/63 repeat mind you since we are in different times now and a warmer world than back then but I would like to have at least experienced 1 winter like that one in my lifetime as I've never experienced anything that comes anywhere close to this. Only December 2010 and February 1986 in my life have been sub zero CET months. I remember nothing about February 1986 as I was way too young but easily remember December 2010 and it made a fun change to the usual sort of winter months I am used to.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Doesn't mean we'll get a 1962/63 repeat mind you since we are in different times now and a warmer world than back then but I would like to have at least experienced 1 winter like that one in my lifetime as I've never experienced anything that comes anywhere close to this. Only December 2010 and February 1986 in my life have been sub zero CET months. I remember nothing about February 1986 as I was way too young but easily remember December 2010 and it made a fun change to the usual sort of winter months I am used to.

I have lived through three sub zero months - January 1979, February 1986 and December 2010.  Far too young to remember January 1979 but remember February 1986 fairly well and December 2010 obviously very well!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

every winter month is a sub zero month here ..it aint all that TBH 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

every winter month is a sub zero month here ..it aint all that TBH 

Has there ever been a non sub zero month there?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So thoughts about the 12z runs today on the long term prospects (time T240).  

2661B86B-5E12-4473-996B-C708BBA49427.thumb.gif.f5f8a82e4171aee20b2bb79ca4ac5af4.gif9CA5CA63-0EA1-4537-93CD-6E5C27AEDB69.thumb.png.c33ed8e006cbda259b68f5f7a4978189.pngD7A86D75-9B75-43BD-BAB3-914C8BD54214.thumb.png.7570334438c3ed6da9b342a1fbbf08c8.png

GFS, GEM and JMA all looking very meridional as we go into November.  No organisation of a trop vortex here.  

Let’s look at ECM:

2D930CE3-DEFB-4E13-A022-6297F93A6C05.thumb.jpeg.8de52cb84a1245a80dc49a7fb34bac0f.jpeg

I’ve been watching the wave pattern over recent weeks, and remember it is coming down from a highly meridional pattern (6 wave) in late summer, now it is approaching a 4 wave pattern just at the time we might want it, obviously this is just one ECM run, the blocks look to me to be finding the right places slowly.  We will see…

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
45 minutes ago, Don said:

Has there ever been a non sub zero month there?

not that im aware of... when you have average monthly values of  Dec -11 Jan -12.1 Feb -9.9..it would take something spectacular to get an above zero month!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
30 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

not that im aware of... when you have average monthly values of  Dec -11 Jan -12.1 Feb -9.9..it would take something spectacular to get an above zero month!

Wow, wouldn't it just!

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

every winter month is a sub zero month here ..it aint all that TBH 

I think it was winter 17/18 where there were about 170 days in a row below freezing for you guys. That’s not fun even for the hardiest winter lover. 

EDIT: it was 167 days from October to April  

shutterstock_42967567-1.jpg
DAILYHIVE.COM

A Canadian city – a provincial capitol, no less – has officially broken its own record for most consecutive days where the temperature has dipped to or below freezing, with 167 days...

 

Edited by Coopsy
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
18 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember December 1990, and it was the cold cloudy dry variety. 
 

Decembers in the 90s were quite chilly, in between some mild ones.

1991-93 all had cold spells, 94 was very mild, 95 and 96 were cold, 97-98 very mild.

Not sure about 99, as I was out of the country.

Interesting to see there was a long run of mild Decembers in the 80s, during a time of more frequent cold snowy spells.

December 83, 87,88, and 89 were all very mild, and I don’t think 1980 was cold either.

December 2020 may have been bang on average or just slightly milder, but it did feel quite cold, especially the Christmas period. 

 December 1990 though it was quite mild I remember eighth of December 1990 was a Saturday and the day before we had quite heavy rain however overnight into Saturday there was a big snowfall I remember because I was going to go and watch Villa against Tottenham. I really remember this because on that day and a few days after that cars couldn’t even go down our road because they were stuck in snow I was 12 at the time also I think it was one of the biggest snowfall since Jan 1987 and before February 1991.

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Posted
  • Location: stoke on trent
  • Location: stoke on trent
6 hours ago, syed2878 said:

 December 1990 though it was quite mild I remember eighth of December 1990 was a Saturday and the day before we had quite heavy rain however overnight into Saturday there was a big snowfall I remember because I was going to go and watch Villa against Tottenham. I really remember this because on that day and a few days after that cars couldn’t even go down our road because they were stuck in snow I was 12 at the time also I think it was one of the biggest snowfall since Jan 1987 and before February 1991.

remember the 1990 snowfall. heaviest I've ever seen. living 250m up in north staffs it was the only time I remember no electric and the drifts were so high it kept filling in the exhaust port for the gas boiler and opening the door to a wall of snow was insane. never seen anything like it since for sheer heavy prolonged chunky snow. was tge reason i got into weather as i went to bed with rain and woke up in the arctic lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
11 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

OK right, I’m going to make a prediction for early winter now.  I’m sick of predicting covid infection rates, so back to the weather!

I think early November might be quite settled, but will be part of a global shift of patterns to a 4 wave blocked situation by the end of the month, which will cause cold weather across the UK, snow in the north and along the east coast primarily, I expect the cold spell to last well into December.  Where we go from there, I haven’t a clue…we will see…

I suspect us snow starved southerners will wonder what all the fuss is about and will probably just notice a slightly chilly wind, lol!  I remember watching all the news footage growing up with large parts of the country blanketed in snow, with absolutely diddly squat in my back yard!  1995/96 and 1996/97 come to mind there.  However, as long as the setup is in place, we all have a chance!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

The strength of the Euro ridge appears to be strengthening in short and medium term modelling. Makes you wonder why we all gnash our teeth at 3 month average anomaly charts issued 2-4 months ahead of time, when the best model in the world cannot even get pressure patterns over the continent nailed at 5-7 days….

Anyway - this is good news if vortex disruption over the longer term is your thing. Sweet spot would be to see a U.K. trough stalling as it runs into a Euro/Scandy block in mid November. Cue stressed vortex when it really counts. One of my watching briefs moving in the right direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
16 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Well if as they say we narrow this down to 1962 and 2009 then we can see some similarities to this year in some areas but differences between these two years as well. Similarities I can think of are that both are EQBO autumn's leading up to the winter and both years followed a "teaser" style of winter, 1961/62 and 2008/09.

What brings us closer to 1962 compared with 2009 is how in 1962 we had ENSO neutral on the colder side whilst 2009 was an EL Nino and ENSO Neutral on the colder side is certainly a lot closer to a weak La Nina signal.

Doesn't mean we'll get a 1962/63 repeat mind you since we are in different times now and a warmer world than back then but I would like to have at least experienced 1 winter like that one in my lifetime as I've never experienced anything that comes anywhere close to this. Only December 2010 and February 1986 in my life have been sub zero CET months. I remember nothing about February 1986 as I was way too young but easily remember December 2010 and it made a fun change to the usual sort of winter months I am used to.

Purely based on analogues, 2008-2009 winter seems the closest match. The similarities going into this winter with that winter is a descending -QBO, a weak-moderate 2nd year La Nina and also a min in solar cycle, albeit now we are coming out the min rather than going into one as back then. However, similar matches of the drivers of both winters doesn't mean this winter will play out like 08/09 - which saw both Dec and Jan below average, Feb had very cold 1st half and mild 2nd half so was average overall. 

Other matches with weak-mod 2nd year La Nina & -QBO: 2011-12, however, solar cycle was well on the rise to the max - that winter saw milder than average Dec + Jan, though Feb was slightly below average. 1984-85 winter too, heading towards solar min that winter, average Dec, very cold Jan, below average Feb too.

Of course, no one winter with similar background drivers as another winter play out the same, there's so many factors that come together that shape how each winter pans out.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The strength of the Euro ridge appears to be strengthening in short and medium term modelling. Makes you wonder why we all gnash our teeth at 3 month average anomaly charts issued 2-4 months ahead of time, when the best model in the world cannot even get pressure patterns over the continent nailed at 5-7 days….

Anyway - this is good news if vortex disruption over the longer term is your thing. Sweet spot would be to see a U.K. trough stalling as it runs into a Euro/Scandy block in mid November. Cue stressed vortex when it really counts. One of my watching briefs moving in the right direction.

Your post made me think of the 'front-loaded' winters I can recall, and I can't remember all that many: 1970-71(?), 1981-82 and 2010 come to mind. The rest (as far as I can recall) were either back-loaded, all-loaded, unloaded or even spring-loaded!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
39 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Purely based on analogues, 2008-2009 winter seems the closest match. The similarities going into this winter with that winter is a descending -QBO, a weak-moderate 2nd year La Nina and also a min in solar cycle, albeit now we are coming out the min rather than going into one as back then. However, similar matches of the drivers of both winters doesn't mean this winter will play out like 08/09 - which saw both Dec and Jan below average, Feb had very cold 1st half and mild 2nd half so was average overall. 

Other matches with weak-mod 2nd year La Nina & -QBO: 2011-12, however, solar cycle was well on the rise to the max - that winter saw milder than average Dec + Jan, though Feb was slightly below average. 1984-85 winter too, heading towards solar min that winter, average Dec, very cold Jan, below average Feb too.

Of course, no one winter with similar background drivers as another winter play out the same, there's so many factors that come together that shape how each winter pans out.

I thought the QBO during winter 2008/09 was in a westerly phase?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
18 minutes ago, Don said:

I thought the QBO during winter 2008/09 was in a westerly phase?

I stand corrected, it was westerly phase throughout 2008 and into the winter!

qbo_plot.thumb.png.aec58ef1a65498bf2af421e1423c00bd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
46 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I stand corrected, it was westerly phase throughout 2008 and into the winter!

qbo_plot.thumb.png.aec58ef1a65498bf2af421e1423c00bd.png

Thanks Nick.  That's another positive over 2008/09 for those who want a cold winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
11 minutes ago, Don said:

Thanks Nick.  That's another positive over 2008/09 for those who want a cold winter!

Yep eQBO will help with northern blocking, just don't want La Nina to become strong - as that would increase chances of +NAO dominating. Weak best and east-based Nina too.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

I'd just like to quickly post a short quote from my post in the Model thread, this is just one possibility I must say

Here's what I think at the moment 

 

Right now there is a lot riding on the battle across the Atlantic, should the low backing behind Greenland nip the Canadian high that always seems to be theree in Autumn stopping Winter on the bus then we could see that happen. There is a lot more riding in this, this year than there has been for many years. This time however it is not a fantasy looking at this and hoping, there is a decent chance well above the usual that a split PV could mean that there is a collapse which would stop the Atlantic interfering finally. I did not go into this much depth last week as I felt it was a lot simpler but I didn't notice the Canadian high or I dissmised it. Last week I did not go into things as I should have but there is a lot that has remained the same and that is why I am still going to look at this and not dismiss it. The battle has a pretty hgih cjancew of being won by the low and I'm not kidding myself here. Having researched a bit more on this the fact that it was so similar to 1962 surprised me, not only that but what was alluded to in that tweet about now also having happened in 2009, we all know what happened early 2010.

 

This post may not be conclusive but we can never be conclusive this early before Winter so this is about as conclusive as I can get when writing a post about the next few months, a lot of id's and but's but I see an opportunity for the low to win over the high and it only needs 1 slight change then we could see a decent early Winter. I have proof read it but there may still be a lot of spelling errors and it may be confusing but this is as Un-confusing, if that's a word, as I could make it

 

Xander 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
39 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep eQBO will help with northern blocking, just don't want La Nina to become strong - as that would increase chances of +NAO dominating. Weak best and east-based Nina too.

Yes, the biggest potential fly this year is if Nina develops into a strong central based event!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
3 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, the biggest potential fly this year is if Nina develops into a strong central based event!

I don’t think a strong Niña is likely. A good number of these members have it peaking in mid November and then weakening. Moderate at most, and fading as we go into December.

image.thumb.png.acd41ee506e14e81859bafeae8698dc1.png

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