Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

On 21/10/2021 at 13:36, Yarmy said:

"The best year of comparison for the run-up to winter is (don't be alarmed) 1962, when almost all factors that played a role in the weather were the same as they are now. The comparison year that follows is 2010." 

What a selection. Which would you prefer?

1. A year like 2010 which starts off with a severely cold December then gets less cold and then milder by February
2. A 1962/63 which starts off fairly cold then just gets more severe as we get into new year with sub zero CET's
3. A mix of 2010/11 and 1962/63 where we have December 2010 followed by January and February 1963

[Dorsetbred]

On 21/10/2021 at 19:03, SqueakheartLW said:

What a selection. Which would you prefer?

1. A year like 2010 which starts off with a severely cold December then gets less cold and then milder by February
2. A 1962/63 which starts off fairly cold then just gets more severe as we get into new year with sub zero CET's
3. A mix of 2010/11 and 1962/63 where we have December 2010 followed by January and February 1963

Given the current situation in this country, WRT Covid, NHS challenges, Fuel prices, lack of petrol being delivered, you DON'T want a repeat of 62/63. I remember it well and it was great, BUT this country would collapse, so maybe just maybe with the choice of the three then it would have to be number 1.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Chesil View]

Always enjoyable and fascinating to see the musings around various factors and longer term forecasts as we head towards winter. 
it’s is easy for coldies to get disheartened by contingency planners forecasts suggesting milder than average etc. But here’s the thing. 
As of now If I could guarantee the period from Xmas eve to mid January was cold and snowy pretty much every coldie on here would be more than happy even if every other part of the winter was very mild.  The point being that it is perfectly possible for that to happen and the winter still to come in milder than average overall. Three month broad brush probability forecasts are essentially climate forecasts not weather forecasts, a point that is always worth remembering.

[SqueakheartLW]

9th winter 2021/2022 update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 21/10/2021

As per usual we have reached my winter update time again and after the return to a colder than average prediction last week can the CFS maintain this or is it going to make coldies fear that winter will be written off this year. Time to have a look at what each month came back with in turn

December 2021

On this particular run for December 2021 the fears of a December 2015 repeat came back to haunt me and no doubt the minds of every cold fan on here. This was a total horror show and a write off of a month on this update. A lot of the days and nights stayed in double digits, especially early on in the month and even a few cooler days around mid month did little to lower the CET value this update returned for December 2021. It came in at a staggering 8.44C which is a big +3.47C above the 1991-2020 mean and if it were not for a few cooler days mid month it would have been a December 2015 repeat. This was by far my mildest December 2021 update by some margin. Not a great start if looking for a colder overall update.

Example charts from this month

Generally dominated by winds from the S, SW or W throughout apart from a cooler short high pressure spell around mid month. You may be able to notice the blocking forming to the east at the end of the month. Take note of what happens in January.

January 2022

Last week January 2022 came back with a colder than average signal like it has done on most occasions so far during these updates. How did today compared. The bad news is that this update returned the mildest January 2022 update so far with a CET of 6.26C which is +1.60 above the 1991-2020 mean. This mild return does however mask what actually happens during this month on this particular run. The opening days of January 2022 here come with a notable cold spell which is then drowned out by a return to the conditions in December 2021's part of the update further into the month.

Example charts from this month

February 2022

Overall February 2022 had come out consistently colder than average until a couple of weeks ago when we got our first milder than average February 2022 update. Last week we returned to colder than average and the good news is that we remain colder than average on this update with a CET of 4.04C which is -0.85C below the 1991-2020 average. This cold anomaly could have been more if it were not for the fact that the first half of the month was fairly mild overall before the second main cold spell arrived later on in the month.

Example charts from this month

March 2022

March 2022 has up to now been the only month in my updates to return a colder than average anomaly. It had to end eventually and today it did. This update produced a spring like March for the first time in all my updates as it returned a CET of 6.74C which is +1.32C above the 1991-2020 mean. Overall the lingering cold from February is soon pushed away then we stay generally average or above average throughout the month until the very end when it turns colder again

Example charts from this month

Overall December 2021 - March 2022 based on CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 21/10/2021

Overall we came away with a mean on this run of 5.32C which is +1.38C above the 1991-2020 mean for December to March. This means we have come away here with my mildest update overall so far and it appears to be the start of a trend for the CFS. Generally as I have gone through my updates the shift from colder to less cold and finally milder is unmistakable. Very much a downer for those who want a colder winter as the CFS has backed away a lot from the colder outlook it did have back in August and September.

3 Updates latest trend

Here are the previous tri update means as well as the most recent at the bottom of the list

Update batch                  December 2021        January 2022        February 2022        March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 1, 2 and 3         4.17C (-0.80C)           3.11C (-1.55C)        2.76C (-2.13C)         4.02C (-2.72C)     3.51C (-1.81C)

Updates 2, 3 and 4         3.45C (-1.52C)           3.26C (-1.40C)        2.99C (-1.90C)         4.67C (-2.07C)     3.59C (-1.73C)

Updates 3, 4 and 5         4.58C (-0.39C)           3.61C (-1.05C)        2.88C (-2.02C)         5.03C (-1.71C)     4.02C (-1.30C)

Updates 4, 5 and 6         4.51C (-0.46C)           3.88C (-0.78C)        2.67C (-2.22C)         5.37C (-1.37C)     4.10C (-1.22C)

Updates 5, 6 and 7         5.70C (+0.73C)          4.84C (+0.18C)       3.51C (-1.38C)         5.16C (-1.58C)     4.80C (-0.52C)

Updates 6, 7 and 8         5.55C (+0.58C)          4.26C (-0.40C)        4.57C (-0.32C)         5.01C (-1.73C)     4.85C (-0.47C)

Latest                              December 2021       January 2022       February 2022      March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 7, 8 and 9       6.97C (+2.00C)          4.76C (+0.10C)      5.01C (+0.12C)       6.06C (-0.68C)     5.70C (+0.38C)

December 2021 - As noted in several updates December 2021 has generally come out as the mildest or least cold month overall and the 3 update rolling averages generally show it to be the least cold or mildest month but the overall trend has been to shift from colder to milder unfortunately and the latest update has pushed December 2021 to a recent average of +2.00C above the 1991-2020 mean

January 2022 - A bit more reliable to produce a colder outcome compared with December 2021 but the trend had been getting worse for coldies until last weeks update pushed the 3 update mean back into colder than average territory again although only by a modest negative anomaly though. The milder update this week has however put January 2022 back to the milder side of average again by a small +0.10C above the 1991-2020 mean.

February 2022 - This had been the most reliable month predicted to be cold but 2 weeks ago the very mild February 2022 update had really put a dent into that colder anomaly and despite this week producing another colder February 2022 the very mild update 2 weeks ago combined with only modest colder updates since has pushed February 2022 into the milder than average category for the first time overall at +0.12C above the 1991-2020 mean.

March 2022 - With producing colder anomalies for every update till last week it was no surprise that March 2022 came away with the coldest anomaly 3 update rolling mean. Perhaps we are going to get a back loaded winter and a very back loaded one too if CFS is to be believed at present. The milder update this week ended the colder run but due to all the cold anomalies before this this means March 2022 still comes away with a 3 update rolling mean of -0.68C below the 1991-2020 mean and could maintain this negative value if next week comes back colder again.

Overall - Generally just bad news overall for coldies as the 3 update mean just keeps getting milder every week and this week we have broken into the milder than average category for the first time with a mean of 5.70C which is +0.38C above the 1991-2020 December to March mean. This is starting to look less and less promising for those who want a colder outcome and it is now getting to the point where I hope the CFS has it all wrong. Maybe it is reacting to it's ENSO forecast for a strong La Nina.

[Ali1977]

Colder than average conditions for the start of winter? | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

In coming weeks you can expect to hear more in the media about the impacts on the UK’s late autumn and winter weather emanating from La Niña: part of a pattern of climate...

Interesting reading, looking quite positive for a cold last few months of the year ️

[Don]

49 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This is starting to look less and less promising for those who want a colder outcome and it is now getting to the point where I hope the CFS has it all wrong. Maybe it is reacting to it's ENSO forecast for a strong La Nina.

Could well be the case and if it's overreacting to the ENSO signal, this could easily throw it off course.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

What a selection. Which would you prefer?

1. A year like 2010 which starts off with a severely cold December then gets less cold and then milder by February
2. A 1962/63 which starts off fairly cold then just gets more severe as we get into new year with sub zero CET's
3. A mix of 2010/11 and 1962/63 where we have December 2010 followed by January and February 1963

A variation of 1) but with a colder and snowier January, and drier and sunnier February. So something like December 2010, January 1985, and February 2008.

So an intense but short winter which gives way to spring-like mildness in Feb.

Definitely prefer Dec and Jan cold/snow, as if it's mild in Dec and Jan it tends to be wet, dull and miserable. Feb mildness by contrast is often fine, sunny and spring like, though there are horror-show exceptions like 2020.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

9th winter 2021/2022 update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 21/10/2021

As per usual we have reached my winter update time again and after the return to a colder than average prediction last week can the CFS maintain this or is it going to make coldies fear that winter will be written off this year. Time to have a look at what each month came back with in turn

December 2021

On this particular run for December 2021 the fears of a December 2015 repeat came back to haunt me and no doubt the minds of every cold fan on here. This was a total horror show and a write off of a month on this update. A lot of the days and nights stayed in double digits, especially early on in the month and even a few cooler days around mid month did little to lower the CET value this update returned for December 2021. It came in at a staggering 8.44C which is a big +3.47C above the 1991-2020 mean and if it were not for a few cooler days mid month it would have been a December 2015 repeat. This was by far my mildest December 2021 update by some margin. Not a great start if looking for a colder overall update.

Example charts from this month

Generally dominated by winds from the S, SW or W throughout apart from a cooler short high pressure spell around mid month. You may be able to notice the blocking forming to the east at the end of the month. Take note of what happens in January.

January 2022

Last week January 2022 came back with a colder than average signal like it has done on most occasions so far during these updates. How did today compared. The bad news is that this update returned the mildest January 2022 update so far with a CET of 6.26C which is +1.60 above the 1991-2020 mean. This mild return does however mask what actually happens during this month on this particular run. The opening days of January 2022 here come with a notable cold spell which is then drowned out by a return to the conditions in December 2021's part of the update further into the month.

Example charts from this month

February 2022

Overall February 2022 had come out consistently colder than average until a couple of weeks ago when we got our first milder than average February 2022 update. Last week we returned to colder than average and the good news is that we remain colder than average on this update with a CET of 4.04C which is -0.85C below the 1991-2020 average. This cold anomaly could have been more if it were not for the fact that the first half of the month was fairly mild overall before the second main cold spell arrived later on in the month.

Example charts from this month

March 2022

March 2022 has up to now been the only month in my updates to return a colder than average anomaly. It had to end eventually and today it did. This update produced a spring like March for the first time in all my updates as it returned a CET of 6.74C which is +1.32C above the 1991-2020 mean. Overall the lingering cold from February is soon pushed away then we stay generally average or above average throughout the month until the very end when it turns colder again

Example charts from this month

Overall December 2021 - March 2022 based on CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 21/10/2021

Overall we came away with a mean on this run of 5.32C which is +1.38C above the 1991-2020 mean for December to March. This means we have come away here with my mildest update overall so far and it appears to be the start of a trend for the CFS. Generally as I have gone through my updates the shift from colder to less cold and finally milder is unmistakable. Very much a downer for those who want a colder winter as the CFS has backed away a lot from the colder outlook it did have back in August and September.

3 Updates latest trend

Here are the previous tri update means as well as the most recent at the bottom of the list

Update batch                  December 2021        January 2022        February 2022        March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 1, 2 and 3         4.17C (-0.80C)           3.11C (-1.55C)        2.76C (-2.13C)         4.02C (-2.72C)     3.51C (-1.81C)

Updates 2, 3 and 4         3.45C (-1.52C)           3.26C (-1.40C)        2.99C (-1.90C)         4.67C (-2.07C)     3.59C (-1.73C)

Updates 3, 4 and 5         4.58C (-0.39C)           3.61C (-1.05C)        2.88C (-2.02C)         5.03C (-1.71C)     4.02C (-1.30C)

Updates 4, 5 and 6         4.51C (-0.46C)           3.88C (-0.78C)        2.67C (-2.22C)         5.37C (-1.37C)     4.10C (-1.22C)

Updates 5, 6 and 7         5.70C (+0.73C)          4.84C (+0.18C)       3.51C (-1.38C)         5.16C (-1.58C)     4.80C (-0.52C)

Updates 6, 7 and 8         5.55C (+0.58C)          4.26C (-0.40C)        4.57C (-0.32C)         5.01C (-1.73C)     4.85C (-0.47C)

Latest                              December 2021       January 2022       February 2022      March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 7, 8 and 9       6.97C (+2.00C)          4.76C (+0.10C)      5.01C (+0.12C)       6.06C (-0.68C)     5.70C (+0.38C)

December 2021 - As noted in several updates December 2021 has generally come out as the mildest or least cold month overall and the 3 update rolling averages generally show it to be the least cold or mildest month but the overall trend has been to shift from colder to milder unfortunately and the latest update has pushed December 2021 to a recent average of +2.00C above the 1991-2020 mean

January 2022 - A bit more reliable to produce a colder outcome compared with December 2021 but the trend had been getting worse for coldies until last weeks update pushed the 3 update mean back into colder than average territory again although only by a modest negative anomaly though. The milder update this week has however put January 2022 back to the milder side of average again by a small +0.10C above the 1991-2020 mean.

February 2022 - This had been the most reliable month predicted to be cold but 2 weeks ago the very mild February 2022 update had really put a dent into that colder anomaly and despite this week producing another colder February 2022 the very mild update 2 weeks ago combined with only modest colder updates since has pushed February 2022 into the milder than average category for the first time overall at +0.12C above the 1991-2020 mean.

March 2022 - With producing colder anomalies for every update till last week it was no surprise that March 2022 came away with the coldest anomaly 3 update rolling mean. Perhaps we are going to get a back loaded winter and a very back loaded one too if CFS is to be believed at present. The milder update this week ended the colder run but due to all the cold anomalies before this this means March 2022 still comes away with a 3 update rolling mean of -0.68C below the 1991-2020 mean and could maintain this negative value if next week comes back colder again.

Overall - Generally just bad news overall for coldies as the 3 update mean just keeps getting milder every week and this week we have broken into the milder than average category for the first time with a mean of 5.70C which is +0.38C above the 1991-2020 December to March mean. This is starting to look less and less promising for those who want a colder outcome and it is now getting to the point where I hope the CFS has it all wrong. Maybe it is reacting to it's ENSO forecast for a strong La Nina.

EDITED, sorry misread March.

That said, from those charts, Jan looks synoptically interesting at times with a 'battleground' easterly scenario, and Feb looks frequently anticyclonic. Dec is by far the least interesting.

Though I do find March has a tendency for cold forecasts, whereas in reality, in most years (2013 and 2018 being notable exceptions, 2016 slightly so) it tends towards mild.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Summer8906

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

At least Jan is close to average. It's a shame March is the coldest month, as many of us just want spring by then!

Though I do find March has a tendency for cold forecasts, whereas in reality, in most years (2013 and 2018 being notable exceptions, 2016 slightly so) it tends towards mild.

For the south it usually is but March up here still very much winter like especially before the spring equinox. Spring doesn't usually get going until April but even then that's not always a given - look at last April. Had snow cover here on the 10th.

[virtualsphere]

Re. ENSO, here's some analysis I did last year comparing the historical Nino 3.4 / 1+2 region data for the October to December period with the following winter CET which could be worth sharing again.  This would seem to suggest it's El Nino we definitely don't want for a colder winter, and while neutral is fine, a slightly stronger La Nina signal may not be a deal breaker, especially in the 1+2 region.  Strong La Nina can certainly lead to very warm winters, but doesn't rule out cold - the strongest El Nino does seem to result almost exclusively in warm winters.

According to this, most forecasts currently going for between -0.5 and -1.0 for OND which is pretty much where we want to see it, if we want a chance at a colder winter from an ENSO perspective.  (source: 

IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | October 2021 Quick Look

IRI.COLUMBIA.EDU

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

While I agree, December last year felt seasonable even with some mild weather mid-month, statistically it was milder than average, though bang on average for 1991-2020 and even slightly below 1971-2000. I don’t think it was the coldest overall since 2010 though as 2012 and 2017 were colder in the C.E.T. record. The point stands true though that it has been a long time now since a notably cold December. 

It beats the previous longest gap I can remember between 1981 and 1990 when, if I remember right, we had 8 mild, and often very mild, Decembers in a row (if I remember right none were even near average).

December 1990 wasn't a record breaker but I do remember it being consistently cold until around the 18th or so, when it turned mild and wet. Still firmly in the colder than average category though, unlike any year since 2010.

2011-20 has produced a few near average, though, while 1982-89 were all - I think - mild.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

6 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

For the south it usually is but March up here still very much winter like especially before the spring equinox. Spring doesn't usually get going until April but even then that's not always a given - look at last April. Had snow cover here on the 10th.

Yes, early spring is one of the seasons where I am glad I live in the south - not sure about midwinter though!

Note as I said I slightly misread the update, the comment on March being cold I made (and later deleted) was related to the averages rather than the latest update.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

It’s interesting to muse, and we have some of the building blocks taking shape with some certainty (QBO, ENSO, SST precursors) but it is still too early. We need another 4 weeks before the mists will clear a little, and therefore all forecasts or probabilistic guesses are not worth being concerned about - whether cold or mild in nature. The only thing we can say with certainty is that eQBO statistically provides some pro cold outbreak bias, and that avoiding an extreme ENSO signal means raging zonality also drops in likelihood. These are obviously good foundations for coldies.

On a personal level I note a reasonably cyclonic profile in the North Pacific at present but also a tendency for cyclonic conditions over Scandy to take hold as we move through the rest of this month. One good signal, one less good I think. But blocking in the right place requires the right jet profile and the transference of energy from tropics to extra tropics to produce conditions conducive to warm blasts into the vortex or at least eddies in the flow that encourage a reversal in the flow….and this is sooooo difficult to see at medium/long range. We need to get a feel for conditions over east Asia and any tendency for spiking torque and pacific jet extension (last winter saw a helpfully active pacific jet) and alongside that the MJO passage, broadly predictable in position but very unpredictable in amplitude.

And so…..we must sit tight a while longer before getting a feel beyond the foundation basics at the top of this post. For my own part - MJO position and amplitude, North Pacific ensemble 500hpa forecast alongside SSTs, blocking (or not) over Eastern Europe and ENSO strength are my areas of focus as the next 4 weeks unfolds. 

 

SSTs over Atlantic throughout are uniformly high. This I think should weaken the jet theoretically and promote ridging over mid Atlantic.. 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all some very interesting reading regarding this coming winter forecast.

A definite sign from Glosea 5 of something on the dry side and cold for November,

Interesting to see if we have improved on long range forecasting but the powers that be 

have without a doubt picked up on something long range.We wait with bated breath.

[sebastiaan1973]

Seems to me that EC46 shows a quite typical La Nina early winter pattern 

[syed2878]

6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Colder than average conditions for the start of winter? | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

In coming weeks you can expect to hear more in the media about the impacts on the UK’s late autumn and winter weather emanating from La Niña: part of a pattern of climate...

Interesting reading, looking quite positive for a cold last few months of the year ️

 Thank you for that @ali1977 makes a very interesting reading let’s hope it comes to fruition come late November early December and onwards. Well guys get ready for sensational winter headlines on our papers in the coming weeks I’ve no doubt this blog is given the reporters on most papers wet Dreamz. ?‍ 

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

It beats the previous longest gap I can remember between 1981 and 1990 when, if I remember right, we had 8 mild, and often very mild, Decembers in a row (if I remember right none were even near average).

December 1990 wasn't a record breaker but I do remember it being consistently cold until around the 18th or so, when it turned mild and wet. Still firmly in the colder than average category though, unlike any year since 2010.

2011-20 has produced a few near average, though, while 1982-89 were all - I think - mild.

I remember December 1990, and it was the cold cloudy dry variety. 
 

Decembers in the 90s were quite chilly, in between some mild ones.

1991-93 all had cold spells, 94 was very mild, 95 and 96 were cold, 97-98 very mild.

Not sure about 99, as I was out of the country.

Interesting to see there was a long run of mild Decembers in the 80s, during a time of more frequent cold snowy spells.

December 83, 87,88, and 89 were all very mild, and I don’t think 1980 was cold either.

December 2020 may have been bang on average or just slightly milder, but it did feel quite cold, especially the Christmas period. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Sunny76

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember December 1990, and it was the cold cloudy dry variety. 
 

Decembers in the 90s were quite chilly, in between some mild ones.

1991-93 all had cold spells, 94 was very mild, 95 and 96 were cold, 97-98 very mild.

Not sure about 99, as I was out of the country.

Interesting to see there was a long run of mild Decembers in the 80s, during a time of more frequent cold snowy spells.

December 83, 87,88, and 89 were all very mild, and I don’t think 1980 was cold either.

December 2020 may have been bang on average or just slightly milder, but it did feel quite cold, especially the Christmas period. 

Yep.

A feature of the 80s ,from my limited memory of a distant past is colder weather tended to come after Christmas ,or after NY..

[SLEETY]

19 hours ago, Yarmy said:

"The best year of comparison for the run-up to winter is (don't be alarmed) 1962, when almost all factors that played a role in the weather were the same as they are now. The comparison year that follows is 2010." 

Loved reading that Article,always a chance we can get a severe cold spell in the winter,despite most seasonal forecasts going for mild every winter.

Not exactly hard to frecast mild when most winter past 30 years have been!!

Seasonal forecasts didnt pick up the cold spring this year though ,even 7 days before as Jules2016 pointed out earlier.

So wouldnt take much notice of them anyway

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep.

A feature of the 80s ,from my limited memory of a distant past is colder weather tended to come after Christmas ,or after NY..

Exactly, and furthermore the textbooks, and school geography lessons, always told us that December was relatively mild and Jan and Feb often cold and frosty. In the 80s, except 1981, that was pretty true.

Since - well as said above, 1990-2010 saw quite a few cold Decembers, but very marked since 1988 is the dominance of mild, zonal weather in Jan, and mild (but sometimes drier) weather in Feb. This does seem to have been a marked climatic change.

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember December 1990, and it was the cold cloudy dry variety. 
 

Decembers in the 90s were quite chilly, in between some mild ones.

1991-93 all had cold spells, 94 was very mild, 95 and 96 were cold, 97-98 very mild.

Though 1993 had very, very limited cold in the south, comprising one brief northerly outbreak one weekend around mid-month and a three-day cold spell which just happened to co-incide with Christmas. Likewise, 1994 also had a short cold spell so I see those two as much of a muchness, though 1994 was less wet.

1997 despite being generally very mild did give a rare lying-snow event in southern England. An unusual synoptic setup: an anticyclone with average day temps and frosty nights gave way to a brief very cold easterly, and then the 'thaw' system moving from the SW produced several hours of snow (unusual for the south when this type of setup normally just gives rain). Then wet, a brief mild foggy spell, then very stormy. Not a good month overall though.

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Not sure about 99, as I was out of the country.

Mild and wet. Again like 1997, though, there was a brief snow-lying event in the south on the 18th. We did dodge a bullet with the Lothar and Martin storms late in the month which went south over France; I remember the Christmas period as being wet, but not that windy, presumably on the northern edge of those storms, while the strong winds were to the south.

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Interesting to see there was a long run of mild Decembers in the 80s, during a time of more frequent cold snowy spells.

December 83, 87,88, and 89 were all very mild, and I don’t think 1980 was cold either.

Yes, December 1987 is perhaps notorious as being the month that started the mild winter phase that has dominated much of the time since, except 2009-13. I remember one weather forecast in which the forecaster (was either Michael Fish or Ian McCaskill) said that the night-time temps were way in excess of the normal expected day max, late in the month. Something like 12 or 13C. If I remember right Dec 1987 wasn't unlike 2015, but less extreme. Strangely the calendar repeats every 28 years too...

Edited October 22, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Seems to me that EC46 shows a quite typical La Nina early winter pattern 

Does the pink mean very mild, or very high pressure? (sorry if it's an obvious question to some)

Given the shape of those pink blobs, I suspect the latter - which is good news in the medium term if you want dry weather!

[sebastiaan1973]

It shows anomaly of pressure

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

December 2020 may have been bang on average or just slightly milder, but it did feel quite cold, especially the Christmas period. 

Missed Dec 2020 having escaped the country before lockdown, but the impression I got was of a coldish (dull and damp) start and cold (but sunnier) end, but two weeks of very mild and very wet in the middle.

Perhaps a bit like Dec 2012, except in that case the cold was in the first 13 days, while the very mild and very wet lasted from the 14th-31st.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Summer8906

[mountain shadow]

36 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Does the pink mean very mild, or very high pressure? (sorry if it's an obvious question to some)

Given the shape of those pink blobs, I suspect the latter - which is good news in the medium term if you want dry weather!

It shows anomaly of pressure, however, you have to be careful here, it does not necessarily show high pressure in those areas, particularly the first two charts. The average pressure around those areas might be 990mb, but the forecast is higher say 995mb, it is still low pressure but pressure is higher than normal, hence the above average anomalies.

The only high pressure anomalies i take interest in are the off the scale black hole ones. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by mountain shadow