Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

January 2010 a big exception! 

True - to be fair I was thinking more of the pattern since 2013, in which all even years have been mild and wet, and all odd years have been close to or maybe, in some cases, slightly colder than average with more varied synoptics.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Summer8906

[SqueakheartLW]

Who wants a bit of 2010 de ja vu anyone

Here's the chart from 19th October 2010 with a very brief Arctic blast

On this day we struggled to get into double figures temperature wise as our maximums in most places.

Guess what's showing on the models for Thursday this week, hmmmm

Almost to the date and day of the week in October too. Also predicted to have very similar maxes to the blast in 2010 too.

This only followed a day of bizarre warmth in the month too although not at the same point in the month

I remember this day well and just how warm the day felt. We had low 20's as our maxes on this day in parts of England and the SE had an overnight minimum of 18C if I recall correctly

Although not the same pressure pattern the situation has been similar today. Bizarre warmth like back in 2010 for that single day with low 20's as maxes. Tonight is predicted to be 16C in the SE but then they predicted mid teens back in 2010 on that warm day and it ended up 18C. Don't rule that out again tonight in the SE.

Just too much of a de ja vu situation here so far this October. I wonder where this might lead to. Can we even dare to think we could see a December 2010 repeat. After all we have a La Nina developing too and we are at the same stage of solar cycle 25  as we were back in 2010 during solar cycle 24.

[Wold Topper]

On 19/10/2021 at 20:43, Summer8906 said:

Yes, the xenophobic BS on one of those front pages is perhaps the prime thing that makes the Express only worthy of toilet roll material - if that.

I am amazed they are using Celsius though. The Express are normally obsessed with Fahrenheit - because anything which was widely adopted after 1970 in the UK is automatically evil and subversive in their eyes. I'm amazed they haven't tried to bring the non-decimal pound back.

And as for the mild winter thing - well it will make the Government's hole they've dug for themselves a little less deep. So of course they are going to promote it. Might happen, but might not.

The Express do have form, they do like a good dramatic weather headline, 'Snowmageddon next week' etc

I wouldn't wrap fish n chips in the Express but tbf that applies to most of the written press nowadays!

[Weather vane]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Don't forget the frost returning in April!

and May....

[MP-R]

On 19/10/2021 at 14:55, Summer8906 said:

 

Gut feeling, though, is mild and wet Jan (because it always seems to happen in even years - completely unscientific I know) with a colder end; a colder December than of late with frequent frosty and sunny weather, and a Feb which has a mix of mild and cold spells.

That's a good point I hadn't thought of that. Completely unscientific but true. I suppose if we end up with the Atlantic lingering on through January and February, let's hope it's akin to what we got in 2015 which was mostly of the cool to cold variety, and quite sunny. Just not a year like 2015 which seemed to have a constant nagging wind from somewhere (August & October excepted).

It generally gets harder to achieve long lasting mild wet conditions like in Oct-Dec after Christmas. There have been some real stinkers in December, but it seems from then on, any really mild weather is pretty shortlived unless of the anticyclonic variety, which lends itself more to February. Winter 18-19 a good example of that.

A bit like late June when a summer theme is often somewhat set (not consistently, but often), the same can be true for late December. Winter 15-16 is a good example. The horrific mildness largely came to an end at New Year, with only brief interludes of mild or very mild thereafter.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

That's a good point I hadn't thought of that. Completely unscientific but true. I suppose if we end up with the Atlantic lingering on through January and February, let's hope it's akin to what we got in 2015 which was mostly of the cool to cold variety, and quite sunny. Just not a year like 2015 which seemed to have a constant nagging wind from somewhere (August & October excepted).

It generally gets harder to achieve long lasting mild wet conditions like in Oct-Dec after Christmas. There have been some real stinkers in December, but it seems from then on, any really mild weather is pretty shortlived unless of the anticyclonic variety, which lends itself more to February. Winter 18-19 a good example of that.

A bit like late June when a summer theme is often somewhat set (not consistently, but often), the same can be true for late December. Winter 15-16 is a good example. The horrific mildness largely came to an end at New Year, with only brief interludes of mild or very mild thereafter.

Winter base states tend to set in around Christmas, true winter often doesn't commence until then..with exceptions though, 2010 an extreme example but there was a change to less cold just after Christmas. 

In November I look for cold cyclonic conditions as a possible indicator all may not be normal service through the winter. The diving trough scenario into Europe as typically low pressure systems should move west-east rather than dive SE. 2009 delivered one such case when the latter happened.. anticyclonic conditions with high pressure directly overhead I don't think are a good omen, they need to move to the NW or east.. indeed cold courtesy of unsettled in Nov is best.. just an observation. A trough coming unstuck against block to the east also good.. again think 2009.

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Yes, the xenophobic BS on one of those front pages is perhaps the prime thing that makes the Express only worthy of toilet roll material - if that.

I am amazed they are using Celsius though. The Express are normally obsessed with Fahrenheit - because anything which was widely adopted after 1970 in the UK is automatically evil and subversive in their eyes. I'm amazed they haven't tried to bring the non-decimal pound back.

And as for the mild winter thing - well it will make the Government's hole they've dug for themselves a little less deep. So of course they are going to promote it. Might happen, but might not.

A cold winter is likely to happen, since Boris and co are wishing for a mild one. Sod’s law!

[Tom Clarke]

On 18/10/2021 at 06:26, Tom Clarke said:

We've also got a briefing on Wednesday so will be interesting to see what is said - last year the guidance was broadly accurate as to how things played out.

So as others have alluded to the indication is for a very mild winter. The percentile chance of the winter being 'very mild' is the highest that the model data (that they are now using)  has ever shown. Not sure how long this has been used for as I've only been involved in these briefings for 3 years.

Any colder weather is expected early in the season and not to be long lasting.  Obviously this is seen as welcome news for all concerned (though not for winter weather fans!)

The likelihood is also for wetter than average conditions, especially in the North & West, with flood risks for 'normal' associated areas, though rainfall could be average for South East England.  Further afield , the expectation is for an exceptionally dry winter over Iberia & France which would lead to drought conditions going forward in these areas.

 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Tom Clarke said:

So as others have alluded to the indication is for a very mild winter. The percentile chance of the winter being 'very mild' is the highest that the model data (that they are now using)  has ever shown. Not sure how long this has been used for as I've only been involved in these briefings for 3 years.

Any colder weather is expected early in the season and not to be long lasting.  Obviously this is seen as welcome news for all concerned (though not for winter weather fans!)

The likelihood is also for wetter than average conditions, especially in the North & West, with flood risks for 'normal' associated areas, though rainfall could be average for South East England.  Further afield , the expectation is for an exceptionally dry winter over Iberia & France which would lead to drought conditions going forward in these areas.

 

Then again, would anyone want a repeat of 2019/20?

While a very cold winter would not be ideal this year, I suspect many would prefer an average (temp wise) winter with below average rainfall and above average sunshine.

After all the grimness of the past 2 years, I suspect another 19/20 winter with the endless damp and gloom would be a bit much for many.

The only hope is that a dry winter over 'France', depending on what we mean by 'France' (the whole country? Just the south and east of France?) might offer hope of a 1989-style winter, which (for those who remember that year) was many orders of magnitude less depressing than the horror show of 19/20.

It would be truly extraordinary if we did get a mild and wet winter in the south (and mild + wet normally means dull) because it would further extend the sequence of dull and wet months which have prevailed down here in the south for a long time now for only short interruptions. Surely the sequence has got to break soon? If Nov and Dec 2021 are also duller and wetter than average, then there must be a very good chance 2021 will be the dullest year on record across much of the south - and one of the wettest.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Summer8906

[Ali1977]

Santa Claus Village Arctic Circle Live video webcam - Santa Claus Village Rovaniemi Finland

SANTACLAUSVILLAGE.INFO

---

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I’ll just add this, snowing in Santa’s  village - watching this will do for now  I’ve moved on top of a hill to hope for scenes like this in future winters

Edited October 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Santa Claus Village Arctic Circle Live video webcam - Santa Claus Village Rovaniemi Finland

SANTACLAUSVILLAGE.INFO

---

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I’ll just add this, snowing in Santa’s  village - watching this will do for now  

Let's book our flights Ali!!!

[Don]

4 hours ago, Tom Clarke said:

So as others have alluded to the indication is for a very mild winter. The percentile chance of the winter being 'very mild' is the highest that the model data (that they are now using)  has ever shown. Not sure how long this has been used for as I've only been involved in these briefings for 3 years.

Oh well, there we are.....

[Sforzando]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Oh well, there we are.....

If it's going to be mild we might as well break some records. Mildest winter on record goes all the way back to 1868-69. Mildest January 1916. Mildest February 1779! Surely one of those has to go some time soon?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

53 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh well, there we are.....

Wasn't it much the same mild outlook last winter but at least up here in Scotland it was often below average temperatures, the significant snow event that I'd certainly class as a beast and -20C and similarly cold temperatures were recorded in more than one location. Why these seasonal predictions (which nearly always go mild) are thought of as gospel by some does bewilder me in a way, mother nature and the world climate don't look at them and think that's how the weather must pan out, there will always continue to be surprises, it could be the mild winter they mention but just as much chances it could be a colder winter. 

[Anthony Burden]

Good evening everyone,south today weather forecaster just stated that a dry cold period is now looking

more probable over a period from November 2021 to January 2022.A very unusual and positive statement 

to make,will make huge response across the weather maternity.

 

[northwestsnow]

Well it's not what I wanted to hear but there is clearly a strong signal.

Wonder what exactly is driving this signal ..

It sounds like a +Ebo...strong vortex...

[Anthony Burden]

Hi possible easterly QBO,along with some very positive inclination of DRY Northern blocking.

exciting times ahead for cold lovers with lots to talk about.I would imagine this site will become 

very busy.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sforzando said:

If it's going to be mild we might as well break some records. Mildest winter on record goes all the way back to 1868-69. Mildest January 1916. Mildest February 1779! Surely one of those has to go some time soon?

No thank you!

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wasn't it much the same mild outlook last winter but at least up here in Scotland it was often below average temperatures, the significant snow event that I'd certainly class as a beast and -20C and similarly cold temperatures were recorded in more than one location. Why these seasonal predictions (which nearly always go mild) are thought of as gospel by some does bewilder me in a way, mother nature and the world climate don't look at them and think that's how the weather must pan out, there will always continue to be surprises, it could be the mild winter they mention but just as much chances it could be a colder winter. 

Tom said in his earlier post that the guidance for last winter was broadly accurate as to how things played out, so it doesn't sound like the outlook was the same.

[Summer8906]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

No thank you!

Tom said in his earlier post that the guidance for last winter was broadly accurate as to how things played out, so it doesn't sound like the outlook was the same.

+1, if it's going to be a mild winter let's make it 0.1C above normal.

One of the big problems of excessively mild winters (2015/16 for instance, or 2019/20) is how they bring the spring flowers out too early, while it's still dark and gloomy outside - which it usually is in these extreme winters. Such nonsense as daffodils and plum blossom starting to flower at the end of January. Means that not only is winter dreary but spring is spoiled too!

It really is just as well March and April 2016 were below average, otherwise spring would have finished way too early.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Summer8906

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wasn't it much the same mild outlook last winter but at least up here in Scotland it was often below average temperatures, the significant snow event that I'd certainly class as a beast and -20C and similarly cold temperatures were recorded in more than one location. Why these seasonal predictions (which nearly always go mild) are thought of as gospel by some does bewilder me in a way, mother nature and the world climate don't look at them and think that's how the weather must pan out, there will always continue to be surprises, it could be the mild winter they mention but just as much chances it could be a colder winter. 

You see ecmwf and the met office and the rest give probability seasonal forecasts and in the latest there is a 60 to 70% chance of 0.5 - to 1.0c above median for these parts. And with that I’m out after many years reading in here as it’s clearly not for me.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well it's not what I wanted to hear but there is clearly a strong signal.

Wonder what exactly is driving this signal ..

It sounds like a +Ebo...strong vortex...

It's quite surprising, given the tendency for blocking (albeit often blocking which has frequently had lows centred close to Southern England) for much of the past 12 months. It would be a huge pattern change compared to what we've been used to, on a par to what happened mid-2013 when July was unexpectedly hot and sunny following a lengthy cold and changeable period early in the year and in the preceding year - and then anything resembling cold barely came back until (weakly) in 2015.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, Downburst said:

You see ecmwf and the met office and the rest give probability seasonal forecasts and in the latest there is a 60 to 70% chance of 0.5 - to 1.0c above median for these parts. And with that I’m out after many years reading in here as it’s clearly not for me.

Though to be fair that's not 'very mild' Rather, it's a high probability of mildish.

[topo]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, topo said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

Interesting reading

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, topo said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

Goes against the Met forecast. Suggests more southerly tracking jetstream and heights over N Europe which would bring cold dry weather to UK with little Atlantic activity. 

Going back to the met forecast mentioned nearly every met contingency forecast I've  ever read has gone mild or very mild.. for so long now it's a foregone conclusion. 

Last year only the Beijing climate model was going for something nearer average at least.

Last year we had La Nina, and ended up near average and a bit colder in the north especially. It is just one factor. SSW's are an unknown and we are in chaotic times weatherwise and I would urge people to take any forecast with a massive room for high margins of error.

Edited October 20, 2021 by damianslaw