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Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

It is that time of year where Winter discussion starts to become more prevalent on the forum..

I've opened this thread for those who wish to discuss the coming Winter season. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Great Post Nick...

As you will be no doubt aware ,the cold fanatics are already in winter mode

Crikey ,Christmas 24 film channel goes on air tomorrow!!

Anyway,  GW is of course the big elephant in the room as you suggest,but cold weather is still possible of course.

It's been a while since we had a cold November ,will be looking at zonal wind speeds over the next few weeks as Nov traditionally sees an aggressive Atlantic.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Autumn & Mild
  • Location: Essex

Anybody else dislike the snow now they are that much older? Loved it as a kid and i do like to see it falling but then it's the aftermath depending on how much has fallen. School closures, travelling to work. The beast from the east in 2018 was not enjoyable.

Edited by Weatherman_93
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
1 hour ago, Weatherman_93 said:

Anybody else dislike the snow now they are that much older? Loved it as a kid and i do like to see it falling but then it's the aftermath depending on how much has fallen. School closures, travelling to work. The beast from the east in 2018 was not enjoyable.

As a weather enthusiast (hence my name!) I do get excited at the prospect of snow as it doesn't happen very often in our country nowadays; there is also something magical about watching it gracefully fall from the sky. Whenever we do get settled snow, I must admit that after a couple of days it starts to lose its novelty for me. Snow is beautiful when it is nice and fresh, but later turns into ugly dirty slush. And as you have mentioned, it does come with its inconveniences.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Obviously usual caveats apply given that we're in September and looking at possible weather 3-4 months away.  Usually there'd be very little to no indication or skill in forecasting for the early part of winter at this very, very early timeframe, however;

-QBO and weak La-Nina seem pretty much a given going into the early part of winter. I'm hopeful that La Nina wont destructively influence the MJO like it did last winter in that it prevented progression into the Maritime Pacific, but that's something for shorter range forecasting. 

There is a lot of agreement within the longer-term seasonal models for a weaker than average SPV going into winter, something that does have skill at this range, particularly with a majority of models seemingly in agreement. 

At the moment, my current thinking is that the best chance of snow this winter will be during December with the first half of winter most likely to be below average featuring a -NAO more often than not. 

Into the later part of the winter, models see a connect between the Strat & Trop perhaps indicating of a more westerly, +NAO dominated second half, La Nina possibly strengthening by this point too could help prevent cold patterns becoming established over NW Europe/UK , similar to last winter. 

Front loaded winter for me. But these are some very very early musings, October is an important month in terms of snow expansion across the NH and of course seeing how the SPV begins to take shape.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
57 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Nope, appreciate the cold and snow more the older i get, really enjoyed last winter. 

Yes winter 2020/21 was decent, despite not much snow in the south. It did had longer periods of dry cold weather.

The Christmas period was the best for cold frosty weather, and London struggled to reach 3-4c that day. Felt colder in the wind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

Enhanced Risk for Significant Episodes of Blocking During Winter 2021-2022 | Eastern Mass Weather

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/enhanced-risk-for-significant-episodes.html

 

 

 

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Schermafbeelding 2021-09-22 195849.jpg

Schermafbeelding 2021-09-22 195903.jpg

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes winter 2020/21 was decent, despite not much snow in the south. It did had longer periods of dry cold weather.

The Christmas period was the best for cold frosty weather, and London struggled to reach 3-4c that day. Felt colder in the wind. 

Last winter reminded me a bit of 2008/2009. Although we did have a very decent fall in the February of that winter with some drifting with that brief easterly. Last winter we had a few lighter coverings but nothing as significant as that but in terms of cold it seemed similar to 2008/2009. The following winter though was just amazing here. Had decent snow coverings and cold in each winter month and dipped to -17C in January. A similar figure in Dec 2010..........2010 was a fantastic year for proper wintry weather at both ends.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 22/09/2021 at 19:55, Frost HoIIow said:

Last winter reminded me a bit of 2008/2009. Although we did have a very decent fall in the February of that winter with some drifting with that brief easterly. Last winter we had a few lighter coverings but nothing as significant as that but in terms of cold it seemed similar to 2008/2009. The following winter though was just amazing here. Had decent snow coverings and cold in each winter month and dipped to -17C in January. A similar figure in Dec 2010..........2010 was a fantastic year for proper wintry weather at both ends.

 

I hope to relive 2010 again. A wonderful year for winter lovers. Think it reached -15c on the 7th Jan 2010 and -14c on 20th Dec 2010 in my area, hasn't dipped below -7c ever since. We need a winter like the 80s, a decade filled with cold winters (excluding 88/89) and hopefully 2021/22 is the one! 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
10 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Great Post Nick...

As you will be no doubt aware ,the cold fanatics are already in winter mode

Crikey ,Christmas 24 film channel goes on air tomorrow!!

Anyway,  GW is of course the big elephant in the room as you suggest,but cold weather is still possible of course.

It's been a while since we had a cold November ,will be looking at zonal wind speeds over the next few weeks as Nov traditionally sees an aggressive Atlantic.

 

November 2016 was quite cold overall, not severe, but quite wintry. Novembers have been episodic in recent years, some very wet very mild ones such as 2009, some with notable cold such as 2010. The last few Novembers have seen weak zonal winds, which have then ramped into gear come December, 2016 and 2019 good examples. 2010 was an exception. 2009 was an oddity with the flip to major cold second week December onwards after the very mild exceptionally wet November - a sign all was not normal. I think November can give clues of the winter ahead, troughs diving south into Europe are a good sign all is not normal.. and we've had many of those this year..

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Obviously usual caveats apply given that we're in September and looking at possible weather 3-4 months away.  Usually there'd be very little to no indication or skill in forecasting for the early part of winter at this very, very early timeframe, however;

-QBO and weak La-Nina seem pretty much a given going into the early part of winter. I'm hopeful that La Nina wont destructively influence the MJO like it did last winter in that it prevented progression into the Maritime Pacific, but that's something for shorter range forecasting. 

There is a lot of agreement within the longer-term seasonal models for a weaker than average SPV going into winter, something that does have skill at this range, particularly with a majority of models seemingly in agreement. 

At the moment, my current thinking is that the best chance of snow this winter will be during December with the first half of winter most likely to be below average featuring a -NAO more often than not. 

Into the later part of the winter, models see a connect between the Strat & Trop perhaps indicating of a more westerly, +NAO dominated second half, La Nina possibly strengthening by this point too could help prevent cold patterns becoming established over NW Europe/UK , similar to last winter. 

Front loaded winter for me. But these are some very very early musings, October is an important month in terms of snow expansion across the NH and of course seeing how the SPV begins to take shape.

Winters 96-97 and 10-11 spring to mind..

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Frigid said:

I hope to relive 2010 again. A wonderful year for winter lovers. Think it reached -15c on the 7th Jan 2010 and -14c on 20th Dec 2010 in my area, hasn't dipped below -7c ever since. We need a winter like the 80s, a decade filled with cold winters (excluding 88/89) and hopefully 2021/22 is the one! 

Yes an amazing year. I really didn't think we'd see such snow and cold again but proved wrong. However I'm cautiously optimistic about this coming winter. At the moment we have a number of factors going our way but even that isn't a guarantee of bringing cold to our shores. We'll see anyway still early doors yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

I am hoping we'll get some cold frosty sunny days this winter, as opposed to the anticyclonic gloom rubbish.

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Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border

Looking at early signs from a Nature point of view,  prepping is taking place everywhere if you know what to look for. With Gas and fuel prices about to go through the roof, Sod’s law would indicate it’s not going to be a mild one.

dec/early Jan I would punt being pretty frigid overall

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
21 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Great Post Nick...

As you will be no doubt aware ,the cold fanatics are already in winter mode

Crikey ,Christmas 24 film channel goes on air tomorrow!!

Anyway,  GW is of course the big elephant in the room as you suggest,but cold weather is still possible of course.

It's been a while since we had a cold November ,will be looking at zonal wind speeds over the next few weeks as Nov traditionally sees an aggressive Atlantic.

 

ECMWF, UK Met and one of the German models (can't remember the name) last week were all going for a weakening of the zonal winds from November to into December and, to a lesser extent, January.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

From a coldie perspective, I think 2020-1 was a bit under-rated. Granted the south did not always benefit in the way the forecast models were predicting in terms of snowfall, which for some would be disappointing, however we did manage a full week of snow cover here in February and midlands northwards had multiple events. 

In addition, there were a fair few occasions where the marginality chips just fell the wrong way, so it could be argued that it was a little unlucky that there were not a few more events, that might have just tipped the balance and made it more of a 'classic' winter. 

Given the background signals and the knack of colder, snowier winters tending to come in small groups of 2 or 3 in 21st Century, the prospects for this winter delivering could be considered better than average, although there are so many variables, it is impossible to have any confidence.

For any front loaded winter to occur, I'd be looking to avoid above average SSTs in the immediately vicinity as they tend to have a detrimental effect on dewpoints. Later in the season, we will probably be looking to the east as has become the norm as the battleground events that were a feature of my younger years, have become generally rarer in recent times.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cool & dry, with regular cold, snowy periods.
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England

Anything that isn't endless grey, gloom would do nicely. More cold, crisp & sunny days would be preferable, with the odd outbreak of colder, snowy weather. 

One remembers the mild Nov 2009, with flooding in Cockermouth; and driving up to Loch Ard, near Aberfoyle to watch some rallying; it rained all weekend. Yet barely a month later an extended cold period had started.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 hours ago, Stu_London said:

From a coldie perspective, I think 2020-1 was a bit under-rated. Granted the south did not always benefit in the way the forecast models were predicting in terms of snowfall, which for some would be disappointing, however we did manage a full week of snow cover here in February and midlands northwards had multiple events. 

In addition, there were a fair few occasions where the marginality chips just fell the wrong way, so it could be argued that it was a little unlucky that there were not a few more events, that might have just tipped the balance and made it more of a 'classic' winter. 

Given the background signals and the knack of colder, snowier winters tending to come in small groups of 2 or 3 in 21st Century, the prospects for this winter delivering could be considered better than average, although there are so many variables, it is impossible to have any confidence.

For any front loaded winter to occur, I'd be looking to avoid above average SSTs in the immediately vicinity as they tend to have a detrimental effect on dewpoints. Later in the season, we will probably be looking to the east as has become the norm as the battleground events that were a feature of my younger years, have become generally rarer in recent times.

 

 

 

Last winter was akin to 2008-2009 in many respects.. which marked the start of a period with a run of cold or very cold spells.  It was episodic just as last year was, the cold spells occured similar timescales.. opening in December, cold spell late Dec and early Jan, also early Feb. The cold was more entrenched in depth in the south in 08-09 and it was snowier.. in the north especially Scotland, last winter was colder and snowier. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
On 23/09/2021 at 09:02, Stu_London said:

From a coldie perspective, I think 2020-1 was a bit under-rated. Granted the south did not always benefit in the way the forecast models were predicting in terms of snowfall, which for some would be disappointing, however we did manage a full week of snow cover here in February and midlands northwards had multiple events. 

In addition, there were a fair few occasions where the marginality chips just fell the wrong way, so it could be argued that it was a little unlucky that there were not a few more events, that might have just tipped the balance and made it more of a 'classic' winter. 

Given the background signals and the knack of colder, snowier winters tending to come in small groups of 2 or 3 in 21st Century, the prospects for this winter delivering could be considered better than average, although there are so many variables, it is impossible to have any confidence.

For any front loaded winter to occur, I'd be looking to avoid above average SSTs in the immediately vicinity as they tend to have a detrimental effect on dewpoints. Later in the season, we will probably be looking to the east as has become the norm as the battleground events that were a feature of my younger years, have become generally rarer in recent times.

 

 

 

Have to agree with this. Scotland did get a good smothering of snow last winter in Jan and E England in Feb. Was more of a feel for a cooler winter rather than the complete Atlantic westerly washouts of last!

Cold air needed more of a nudge and that Russian high needed to vanish to give us what we wanted in January with a lot of missed opportunities but the month managed to keep below average. It certainly wasn't all that bad compared to recent years, just more on the side of bad luck for us in the south. 1 falling snow day to 11 falling snow days within 2 winters on the coast really isn't all that bad with the easterly into the 2nd week of Feb.

You'd have to wonder what it could have been like if the cold air wasn't restricted all winter since the Atlantic blocking really was quite something and SSTs not being a pain in the backside especially in Jan, had to wait till the wind was from the SE to allow snow to fall briefly here for a dusting on the 16th.

No clue what this winter has in store but dreading the inevitable SST moderation if anything pops up in December. Could all line up beautifully but SSTs will let down the coasts like usual.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

prima onderbouwd verhaal over verschillende vormen van la nina
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/structural-nuances-in-la-nina.html

Mixed Type La Nina Offers Clue for Evolution of Current ENSO
When the large cooling anomaly occupies both the eastern Pacific and the central Pacific during the mature
 phase of development, we have what is referred to as a mixed type of la nina. These events usually mature on
 average in January, as opposed to December for EP and CP events, which coincides with the forecast NDJ
 tri monthly peak of this event. During the maturing stage, the cooling anomaly shifts rapidly from the east
 pacific to the central Pacific. This is precisely how this current event evolved over the 3 month period
 spanning from July 15, when there was no anomaly in region 4 or 3.4, to October 14, when the mean
 anomalies of the western ENSO region were over -1c. Thus this event must be considered what Zhang et all
 referred to as a mixed type of la nina.

Zhang cites 3 events as meeting this criteria, which are the la nina of 1970-71, 2007-2008 and 1999-2000. 
However, Eastern Mass Weather has modified this composite to also include the winters of 2010-2011
and now 2020-2021.

-------------------

In his opinion the Euro seasonal forecast is the most logical for this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Was going to post my 5th winter 2021/2022 CFS 00z 9 monthly update in the other thread but since I have noticed this new one come up I decided this would be a better place for it.

My first 4 updates have all produced something on the colder side of average overall so far but last weeks was the least cold one so far. What will this week's have in store. This one is based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 23/09/2021

December 2021

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We open December 2021 like this under high pressure and a slight easterly flow over southern parts. Not a particularly cold air mass here so temps very much near average.

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We see northern blocking attempting to get going here but the UK is still under a developing southerly from the low pressure to the SW unfortunately if you want cold.

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All that happens here is that we enter a period of zonality and the mildest part of December 2021 as well

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High pressure eventually builds back in and we attempt to get into a beasterly setup. We just end up with high pressure sitting close to the UK in the end so less mild but by no means that cold either.

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At last the first taste of cold in the month with a northerly and a potential snow shower risk in the N and E especially. Just perfectly timed before Christmas too.

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However this is quickly blown away by the polar vortex and the next low coming in from the Atlantic then back we go to mild SW winds again

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This is how we finish December 2021 on this particular run.

December 23/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.45C                     Max          7.71C               -2.26C
Av Min           5.45C                     Min           2.22C              +3.22C          0 Ice Days    
Av Mean        5.45C                     Mean       4.97C               +0.48C

As expected with a lot of zonality during the month we come out milder than average with a mean of 5.45C which is +0.48C above the 1991-2020 December mean. Not as mild as I thought it would come out as however and more or less matches the previous update from a week ago for December 2021 and maintains the milder than average December theme as a result. Not reading too much into this one as all the Decembers have followed the same pattern and the overall winter update has still managed to come out colder than average overall. Will we maintain this trend or will the rest of the winter be a write off. Time to bring on January 2022 and see.

January 2022

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This is how we see in the new year with a continuation of the mild zonality. Not a good start to the year if you are hoping for something colder.

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We continue with this mild zonality for really the first half of the month.

image.thumb.png.90da1543f8b0c53f05d609e09ee38e70.png

Eventually high pressure builds in to break us out of this Atlantic onslaught

image.thumb.png.a874aeadb0f1921f553cf39e9d4691a3.pngimage.thumb.png.fce135187ab2a0962e662a88cebee098.png

We start to see a battleground taking place here between the Atlantic and the cold block forming to the east. It does turn a bit colder here too which helps to bring down the mild CET value but at this stage there isn't anything severe on the cold side.

image.thumb.png.c43596c704e7c707e686e7209814875e.pngimage.thumb.png.dd074cf88d16fd1d2dde761702317a4f.png

This is how January 2022 closes out on this particular run with cold temperatures but nothing too severe at this stage. The block is ever present to the east now and could if it would align itself better unleash something much more severe.

January    23/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.55C                    Max          7.37C               -1.82C
Av Min           3.39C                    Min           1.95C               +1.44C          0 Ice Days
Av Mean        4.47C                    Mean       4.66C                -0.19C

What a let down for a January 2022 update and this is thanks largely to what happens in the first half of the month. All those mild days help to limit the overall mean of this month to 4.47C which is only very slightly below the 1991-2020 mean of 4.66C. This is by far my least cold January update so far and all the others have been more than 1C below average. So far this has turned out to be a winter update to forget for coldies but fear not. Wait till you see what February 2022 has in store on this run.

February 2022

image.thumb.png.dccdaef4284f909e1d9cce89ad56f06a.png

Here's how we open up February 2022. Notice the increasing blocking signal to the NW near Iceland and Greenland. This is a big sign of what this month has in store

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We enter our first proper easterly of the winter here and our first cold spell of this month. Snow becomes an increasing threat here, especially in the east.

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We swap the cyclonic easterly for a more anticyclonic one here so we lose the snow threat but remain generally cold and frosty

image.thumb.png.38d9935db9620e0d7304a67f32d11190.png

We enter what turns out to be a very brief less cold moment here but this doesn't last long at all, just a couple of days before ...

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We start to bring in increasingly cold air from the E and NE and snow showers start to become an increasing threat again.

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This is how February 2022 closes out on this run and these 8 days are the most severe cold of the winter on this run. Just about all of these days are ice days and have severely cold nights as well with penetrating frosts and with low pressure dominating too then a lot of snow could potentially fall here too

February 16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          2.39C                  Max          7.92C               -5.53C
Av Min           -0.25C                 Min           1.85C                -2.10C            5 Ice Days
Av Mean       1.07C                   Mean       4.89C                -3.82C

After what looked like a poor winter 2021/2022 so far for coldies February 2022 has certainly rescued that one from the bin. The mean on this run came out at a cold 1.07C which is a decent -3.82C below the 1991-2020 mean. The month is bookended by cold spells with a very brief less cold few days in the middle of the month. The colder spell late in the month is impressive with sub zero daytime maxes and very cold nights as well despite low pressure in charge. I just wonder how severe the nights would have come up on this run if it were high pressure dominated. Hope that impressive cold spell ends up happening. How will March 2022 fare on this run?

March 2022

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We open up March 2022 where we left off in February with the continuation of that severe cold spell although not as extreme as it had been

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This cold spell is about to end however as the polar vortex is making its comeback once more and a frontal system is no doubt pushing into all of this cold to produce a transitionary snow event.

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Once this is through we turn less cold here and very wet under this low pressure. After all the snow from the cold spell combined with the higher temps and the rain this could pose another issue here with the potential for flooding

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Finally the Atlantic kicks back into gear and the mild SW winds return so winter finally ends and we see our first spring like conditions of the year.

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A very brief ridge of high pressure breaks us out of the Atlantic onslaught here but also brings the less cold/ milder run to an end too.

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Another potential battleground situation is forming here with the last possible taste of winter coming back into Europe but will it make it to the UK?

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We end March 2022 back in a mini beasterly of sorts. Nothing like as severe as the February one but still cold enough to bring a late taste of winter with the potential for more snow here, especially at night.

March    23/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                         
Av Max          6.42C                  Max          10.39C             -3.97C
Av Min           3.55C                  Min           3.08C               +0.47C             0 Ice Days
Av Mean        4.98C                  Mean        6.74C              -1.76C

A relatively decent March 2022 update here. Colder than last weeks and this is largely thanks to the very cold start to the month as well as that late March beasterly getting going. The mean on this run is 4.98C which is -1.76C below the 1991-2020 mean. So after the doom and gloom December and January on this run it seems the February especially and to an extent the March too have rescued this update from the bin.

Overall 5th winter 2021/2022 CFS 00z 9 montly 23/09/2021 run update

Overall    16/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                      
Av Max          4.95C                  Max          8.35C                -3.40C
Av Min           3.03C                  Min           2.28C                +0.75C            5 Ice Days Overall
Av Mean        3.99C                  Mean       5.32C                 -1.33C

Overall winter 2021/2022 on this 5th update comes out colder than average again which is the main thing and in fact turned out colder than last weeks update despite the milder start. The December to March mean on this run comes out at 3.99C which is -1.33C below the 1991-2020 December to March mean.

A back loaded winter is featured here with generally milder and more zonal conditions in December and January with a couple of brief colder interludes helping to limit the CET values to near average before the true winter cold comes in February and lingers into early March. March itself isn't anything special in terms of severity but due to how cold the start of the month is as well as the beasterly at the end it comes out colder than average too.

OVERALL FIGURES

These were the overall figures after the first 4 updates

Month                    OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 4 RUNS

Dec 2021               91-20     4.97C

                                Runs      5.29C

                                Anom     +0.32C                                

Jan 2022                 91-20     4.66C

                                Runs      2.93C

                                Anom    -1.73C                                  

Feb 2022                91-20     4.89C

                                Runs      3.12C

                                Anom    -1.77C                                  

Mar 2022               91-20     6.74C

                                Runs       4.57C

                                Anom    -2.17C                                  

 

Dec to Mar            OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 4 RUNS

                                91-20     5.32C

                                Runs      3.98C

                                Anom    -1.34C                                   

Now here are the updated figures to reflect the new 5th update.

Month                    OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 5 RUNS

Dec 2021               91-20     4.97C

                                Runs      5.32C (up +0.03C)

                                Anom     +0.35C                                

Jan 2022                 91-20     4.66C

                                Runs      3.24C (up +0.31C)

                                Anom    -1.42C                                  

Feb 2022                91-20     4.89C

                                Runs      2.71C (down -0.41C)

                                Anom    -2.18C                                  

Mar 2022               91-20     6.74C

                                Runs       4.65C (up +0.08C)

                                Anom    -2.09C                                  

 

Dec to Mar            OVERALL AVERAGE AFTER 5 RUNS

                                91-20     5.32C

                                Runs      3.98C (No change)

                                Anom    -1.34C                                   

I will be bringing update number 6 next week for the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 30/09/2021 to see where the CFS stands on winter 2021/2022 next time around. Hope it can maintain an overall colder than average position but become more severe again compared with this run.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
21 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Last winter was akin to 2008-2009 in many respects.. which marked the start of a period with a run of cold or very cold spells.  It was episodic just as last year was, the cold spells occured similar timescales.. opening in December, cold spell late Dec and early Jan, also early Feb. The cold was more entrenched in depth in the south in 08-09 and it was snowier.. in the north especially Scotland, last winter was colder and snowier. 

In Glasgow and Central Scotland last winter was probably better than 2008/09 for snow, we got it pretty frequently here, although not as good for bouts of significant cold. It was in its own league I guess. Interesting that these early blocking signals are suggesting something more akin to 2010 although like last winter, I doubt this one will follow the pattern of any previous.

For here at least Dec 2009 started pretty mild and dry (IIRC) and only later in the month did more severe cold come in around Xmas and New Year. It was November into December 2010 that more severe cold returned. We had -18c at the airport mid morning one day in the middle of December that year.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
6 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Was going to post my 5th winter 2021/2022 CFS 00z 9 monthly update in the other thread but since I have noticed this new one come up I decided this would be a better place for it.

My first 4 updates have all produced something on the colder side of average overall so far but last weeks was the least cold one so far. What will this week's have in store. This one is based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 23/09/2021

December 2021

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We open December 2021 like this under high pressure and a slight easterly flow over southern parts. Not a particularly cold air mass here so temps very much near average.

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We see northern blocking attempting to get going here but the UK is still under a developing southerly from the low pressure to the SW unfortunately if you want cold.

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All that happens here is that we enter a period of zonality and the mildest part of December 2021 as well

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High pressure eventually builds back in and we attempt to get into a beasterly setup. We just end up with high pressure sitting close to the UK in the end so less mild but by no means that cold either.

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At last the first taste of cold in the month with a northerly and a potential snow shower risk in the N and E especially. Just perfectly timed before Christmas too.

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However this is quickly blown away by the polar vortex and the next low coming in from the Atlantic then back we go to mild SW winds again

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This is how we finish December 2021 on this particular run.

December 23/09/21 CFS 00z    CET Means 1991-2020    Anomalies                                        
Av Max          5.45C                     Max          7.71C               -2.26C
Av Min           5.45C                     Min           2.22C              +3.22C          0 Ice Days    
Av Mean        5.45C                     Mean       4.97C               +0.48C

As expected with a lot of zonality during the month we come out milder than average with a mean of 5.45C which is +0.48C above the 1991-2020 December mean. Not as mild as I thought it would come out as however and more or less matches the previous update from a week ago for December 2021 and maintains the milder than average December theme as a result. Not reading too much into this one as all the Decembers have followed the same pattern and the overall winter update has still managed to come out colder than average overall. Will we maintain this trend or will the rest of the winter be a write off. Time to bring on January 2022 and see.

 

Interesting in comparison to how many different resources are going for a FRONT end loaded winter yet using you prognosis it looks to be a tail end loaded winter. All to play for on that basis then..Thanks for the time and effort you put in to produce this prognosis, let's see who comes put the winner then..

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