Hurricane Ida

[BrickFielder]

The exact Category will not matter and I suspect that effects will be significant. There are reported  winds gusting over 100mph in remote slightly elevated outer areas. There are some reports from remote areas of sea levels rising 2 feet in hours even before full proper landfall.  These may be extremes but but give an ominous outlook.

Whenever I see a forecaster say this is unusual I tend to take notice.

Quote

 

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 12

Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of 120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane.

 

I am not an expert but vertically deep might suggest robust and keeping strength longer after landfall.

When hard core storm chasers start taking precautions you know things could get tricky.

Quote

642AM: Our chase team is abandoning/evacuating Larose, LA and heading north. This town is not survivable in a high-end Cat 4+ hurricane. Town is "sticks and tin" (wood and tin construction) and will be full of flying debris. Lots of folks did not evacuate and are still in town.
-- Texas Storm Chasers (@TxStormChasers) August 29, 2021

Flash flooding across multiple states looks a possibility as well.

 

[matty40s]

Storm surge now hitting Leeville

 

[crimsone]

The people of twitter seem to have a bit of a split going on. Some are saying "Pressure is down... but the wind speeds didn't seem quite as high - cour be an EWRC", while others suggest the winds might rise to match.

A surprise unexpected EWRC wouldn't be a bad thing for LA right now. God knows it doesn't need it strengthening any more.

Edit:
VORTEX confirms pressure at 932 mb. Eye closed and circular, though it's expanded to 20 nautical miles from 15 earlier.

Edited August 29, 2021 by crimsone
Concentric and circular not the same thing. I know that, you know that. Let's pretend that never happened.

[Cleeve Hill]

When we lived in Antigua in 2017. Hurricane Irma passed us by 35 Miles. Barbuda was devastated. The Islands of St Maarten, BVI, USVI & Turks took the biggest hit. IRMA was a CAT 5++ with sustained winds of 180 MPH although a small centre. I haven't checked in the last few hours but IDA looks like it will be similar to IRMA and Katrina from 16 years ago. A disaster is in the making, sadly. 

[matty40s]

 

[summer blizzard]

Edited August 29, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Howie]

 Very interesting yet very sobering 

[crimsone]

Eye now 16 nm, so tightening up again.
Still 932 mb by sonde.
10 second wind of 149.6 mph observed in NE.

[crimsone]

Hope Jeff doesn't get himself into trouble again.

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Eye now 16 nm, so tightening up again.
Still 932 mb by sonde.
10 second wind of 149.6 mph observed in NE.

Did the pressure rise back up from 928? I wasn't expecting that, doesn't show any signs of weakening

[crimsone]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

Did the pressure rise back up from 928? I wasn't expecting that, doesn't show any signs of weakening

928 was an extrapolated pressure in HDOBs... it could well be called at 928, but on the other hand, 932 is what the sonde measured on that latest vortex, so is probably the most accurate thing to go on. 

[crimsone]

EarthCam - New Orleans Cam

WWW.EARTHCAM.COM

Corner of St Peters and Bourbon in the french quarter. When I checked a moment ago, someone was walking her dog.

[Howie]

29 minutes ago, crimsone said:

928 was an extrapolated pressure in HDOBs... it could well be called at 928, but on the other hand, 932 is what the sonde measured on that latest vortex, so is probably the most accurate thing to go on. 

Right 

[crimsone]

Dropsonde in the NE eyewall. Oh dear.


Edit: Ah. A handy direct link to the observation.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2021&product=sonde&identifier=Ida&aircraft=3&month=08&day=29&mission=WB&agency=NOAA&ob=08-29-1316-31-951-162-140

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by crimsone

[Badgers01]

31 minutes ago, crimsone said:

EarthCam - New Orleans Cam

WWW.EARTHCAM.COM

Corner of St Peters and Bourbon in the french quarter. When I checked a moment ago, someone was walking her dog.

Well why not it’s only gusting to 30 mph - looks like hopefully the worst will stay away from the most populated urban areas of NOLA ….

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[attheallotment]

Couple of Louisiana University webcams at a marine research station at Chauvin Cocodrie which unfortunately looks to be in the firing line: https://lumcon.edu/weather-cams/

plus associated weather stations -

WeatherStations

WEATHERSTATIONS.LUMCON.EDU

about 45mph sustained at the moment.

Edited August 29, 2021 by attheallotment
typo

[crimsone]

Army Corps of Engineers are seemingly confident about the levee system, which is absolutely a change from 16 years ago, and a positive one at that.
 

 

[crimsone]

Live from Grand Isle. The eye is heading right for it.

Hoping this is a camera left behind, and not a camera attended.
 

John Humphress2 svrweather.com is chasing an impressive storm live on SevereStudios. Watch Live:

WWW.SEVERESTUDIOS.COM

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by crimsone

[AderynCoch]

On 29/08/2021 at 16:29, crimsone said:

Live from Grand Isle. The eye is heading right for it.

Hoping this is a camera left behind, and not a camera attended.
 

John Humphress2 svrweather.com is chasing an impressive storm live on SevereStudios. Watch Live:

WWW.SEVERESTUDIOS.COM

 

I don't see that lasting very long...

[Soaring Hawk]

Reason for edit: causeway link showing terrible driving conditions didn’t work. Causeway will be closed at 11am. 
 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Soaring Hawk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D7pQxnOIjI

[The PIT]

Seems to have stopped strengthening so cat four at landfall.

[crimsone]

5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Seems to have stopped strengthening so cat four at landfall.

Yup.

The Texan pilot and "The little plane that could" from Florida (Holy crap did that one do a lot of work) both seem to be bugging out now too.

Another mission heading in from texas - it'll probably get one, maybe two passes before landfall.

[The PIT]

Well the cams I'm watching seem to be showing rain more than anything. One storm chaser has gone drive about but apart from the rain not a lot happening yet.

[Jo Farrow]

NWSNHC FB live now