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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

NHC now going for a Cat. 4 landfall in Louisiana. Given the high potential for rapid intensification I don't think Cat. 5 at some point is out of the question.

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
33 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

NHC now going for a Cat. 4 landfall in Louisiana. Given the high potential for rapid intensification I don't think Cat. 5 at some point is out of the question.

I think it will become a cat 5 unfortunately, as soon as the models go for a cat 3 when a tropical storm hasn't even formed, that's when you know there is trouble, like with Hurricane Matthew and Michael.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Glorious.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The wordings even NOAA are unusually severe it seems to me, so a really severe hurricane looks to be on its way, winds, coastal flooding from storm surges and very high rainfall totals

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
5 hours ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

 

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The wordings even NOAA are unusually severe it seems to me, so a really severe hurricane looks to be on its way, winds, coastal flooding from storm surges and very high rainfall totals

I suspect that Katrina is very much on their minds.. Storm surge 11-15 ft (Katrina was 18-20)...cat 4 on landfall 

The damage to Biloxi was catastrophic 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DxTL4g8eK5rA&ved=2ahUKEwj8iZPPjNPyAhXBnVwKHYIKCFUQxa8BegQICRAF&usg=AOvVaw2et_j9v8741DloxPzq_I5Q

I watched a documentary last night on Katrina. In Biloxi it showed a three storey concrete apartment block.... Except previously there were two of them. 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Yes, Ida doesn't look as healthy today. Cuba has knocked her a bit. 

 

Let's see if she starts to intensify in the next update.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

The ImPerfect Storm!! Disaster compounded by Covid.

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Jeff is usually on Periscope for these events, a must watch!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Probably a bit tricky to forecast the intensity at the moment. Latest discussion suggests the eye survived intake crossing Cuba.

Quote

 

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number   7

Ida made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio around 2320 UTC with maximum sustained winds estimated to be around 70 kt. Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident.  In addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening.
It seems likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high.  

 

 

Latest Satellite loops suggest that deep rapid convection has disrupted the eye as Matty comments above.

Quote

This is probably why the latest VDM fixes by both the @NOAA_HurrHunter & @53rdWRS no longer indicate a closed eyewall with #Ida. It also suggests some reorganization will need to take place in the short-term before rapid intensification becomes more likely.

1000x1000.thumb.jpg.e7566d36a9f53ba12fb75596e78704f9.jpg

Regardless of the state of the Eye the hurricane has a fast spin on it which I think will cause intensification. It also looks likely to make landfall slightly West of New Orleans which due to the circular pattern of the winds will tend to drive waves into Lake Borgne. Seven to eleven feet surge could be a conservative estimate for New Orleans.

040048_peak_surge.thumb.png.09007ff4d44f06122e343c40c65fb6d6.png

We must not forget the flooding impact from this Storm especially since Tennessee is only just beginning to recover from earlier flooding (Just West of Nashville) 

040048WPCQPF_sm.thumb.gif.55f108482f5e2f20bd8c0d1bcd553cbb.gif

Quote

 

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 8

Just after the last advisory, the convective structure of Ida got a bit ragged, probably due to the residual effects of land interaction with Cuba and a tongue of dry air that wrapped into the eastern side of the circulation. However, latest radar images from Cuba show that the eye is becoming better defined, and satellite imagery shows cooling of the cloud tops in the eyewall. 
Ida is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light vertical shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures until it makes landfall. The only negative factor is the possibility that dry air may try to entrain into the system and slow the expected intensification. The SHIPS and LGEM models are showing a little less strengthening than previously. However, the HWRF and HMON models continue to forecast Ida to reach Category 4 intensity before landfall. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Both the ICON and GFS 6z downgrade Ida's strength somewhat. This is probably the result of the slight weakening following Cuba.

However, they can easily switch to something stronger in the 12z is she intensifies in the next few hours.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
0828idaWIND2.png
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Hurricane Ida has moved over Cuba and is now forecast to

I remember being the night shift for BBC World weather, doing recordings for 1min and 2:20 weathers to go out for Sunday 29th 2005.

Just the grim feeling (not that BBC World service would be where the people on the ground would be watching but) seeing that Cat5 grinding towards the north Gulf coast in the  loneliness of that night shift at TVC White City.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Looks like Ida is beginning to develop a new eye. Despite the developing towers around and the speed of wrap, time is beginning to get short for intensification. It does have a better symmetrical look and lightning detected in the eye wall does mean it is picking up.

27f8761f-5e76-4f03-b592-60870d1efe30.thumb.jpg.8ce5f028cd1cb5df21a0d1d40c3041eb.jpg

 

Some recent comments picked up on twitter.

Quote

 

From Storm2K Forum in the US.

And just a heads up from on the ground here Between Baton Rouge and New Orleans... Even if people wanted to leave from my area, they cant. No gas to be found anywhere. No plywood to board windows. And shelves of the Walmart in Walker, La are stripped clean

Yes, the mayor doesn't want to evacuate New Orleans. Pro Mets were having a field day on twitter about this decision.

Very latest Vortex Data Message from @53rdWRS shows #Ida's eyewall now open to the NW, a 180-degree change from the NOAA pass an hour or so ago. This indicates instability in the eyewall from the hot towers pinwheeling around the center. Should close off and symmetrize soon.

Satellite shows that #Ida is getting better organized with an eye trying— look at the cloud tops getting colder with more symmetry. All signs point toward rapid intensification soon.

 

 

What better time could there be for issues with drainage and pumps in New Orleans.

 

AnWcE4p.thumb.jpg.9206e015e55bdbb01369789b484d242c.jpg

 

If true then somebody will not be popular if this is still the case when the Ida passes over.

If I remember correctly Hurricane Katrina had about 5 hot towers develop just before the intensity increased significantly, might be worth watching out for more of these as it looks like Ida might developing them.


 

Quote

 

Nasa  Hurricane Katrina Notes

TRMM spotted another pair of hot towers inside Hurricane Katrina on August 28. One tower near the eyewall and the other in an outer rainband of the storm reached over 15 km (more than 9 miles) high. The towers were spotted just before Katrina intensified to a Category 5 hurricane. These thunderclouds are like the cylinders of an engine, releasing enormous quantities of heat energy and helping to spin up the winds inside the storm.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
1 hour ago, BrickFielder said:

 

 

What better time could there be for issues with drainage and pumps in New Orleans.

 

AnWcE4p.thumb.jpg.9206e015e55bdbb01369789b484d242c.jpg

 

If true then somebody will not be popular if this is still the case when the Ida passes over.

 


 

 

 

That was my thought then I read up about the hurricane defence system they had put in place post Katrina and storms in 2018/19 spending $14.5 bn dollars 

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

 

That extra warm blob in the Gulf waters is particularly worrying. One of the weather channels tweeted out that this particular pool of very warm water also extends to a greater depth than usual so cooling upwelling won't be a "thing". If Ida slows over that puppy, she could be a Cat 5 at landfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 12z gfs makes a slight adjustment east in the track. Intensity slightly down compared to earlier runs.

The 12z ICON broadly the same as the 6z.

Edited by karyo
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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
On 28/08/2021 at 17:50, Fiona Robertson said:

That extra warm blob in the Gulf waters is particularly worrying. One of the weather channels tweeted out that this particular pool of very warm water also extends to a greater depth than usual so cooling upwelling won't be a "thing". If Ida slows over that puppy, she could be a Cat 5 at landfall.

That's the Gulf Loop Current I think. Many a hurricane has strengthened rapidly passing over it (Camille, Katrina and Rita spring to mind).

The eye is really clearing out now on satellite imagery. I imagine the wind field is expanding. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

Watching Reed Timmer's drive south towards Louisiana in his Dominator beast. 
He's noted the clear eye of the storm, rapid intensification now and slightly NE of the forecast track. Could mean this runs closer to New Orleans. 

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