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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

NHC have declared TD9. Forecast to develop rapidly and could hit the Gulf Coast as early as Sunday after a trip over Cuba tomorrow. UKMO, GFS, Euro operationals range from about 950mb to 980mb however HWRF (specialist intensity model for the tropics and highly accurate according to the NHC) has been punting in the 930mb range. 

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over west-central Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an increase in the organization of the associated convective activity, and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure and intensity. The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low- level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday and Friday night, with dangerous storm surge possible in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. The system is expected to produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. This system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER

60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

......

For a first advisory i don't most of you will be aware of just how agressive that is. The NHC are normally very conservative in their initial forecasts.

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Edited by Jo Farrow
upgrade hurricane
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

I think Ida will be retired as a name after this one. 

Is it possible for a moderator to pull in to this thread the pre depression posts from the last few days, this could be a very notable weather event.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
37 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I think Ida will be retired as a name after this one. 

Is it possible for a moderator to pull in to this thread the pre depression posts from the last few days, this could be a very notable weather event.

That's a good suggestion. It always feels a bit disjointed to lose the early posts once a storm thread is made. It makes it also easier to analyse how the models did with picking up the system before it developed.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
1 hour ago, karyo said:

That's a good suggestion. It always feels a bit disjointed to lose the early posts once a storm thread is made. It makes it also easier to analyse how the models did with picking up the system before it developed.

The models did very well with this one, as did Josh Morgerman who said 3 days ago he could put his passport away for the next biggie!!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The models did very well with this one, as did Josh Morgerman who said 3 days ago he could put his passport away for the next biggie!!

Well, they were all seeing development but most models were going for western Gulf hurricane with an eastern Mexico landfall. Gradually they shifted the track further north and east.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Until earlier the mid and low level vortex were displaced and the wave axis tilted and broad. The mid level vortex today has essentially developed sufficiently to push down the atmosphere and become the primary center. Since the mid level vortex was close to the northern trough axis this has resulted in the models (which base their forecasts on where they think the low level vortex is initialised) having to adjust north and therefore east at landfall.

 

Update - NHC will upgrade to TS Ida at the next advisory.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

HWRF comes in at 941mb.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Tropical Storm #Ida Advisory 3A: Center of Ida Passing Through the Cayman Islands. 

http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome

A Hurricane Watch for Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border including Metropolitan New Orleans

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0827caymanR.png

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

It looks like Ida will move through the Gulf of Mexico relatively fast. This is likely to limit somewhat its intensification. If she was moving slowly she would have more chance to become a cat4/5

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The NHC is now expecting Ida to make landfall somewhere in Louisiana as a category 3! 

I wonder if she will slow down a bit in forward speed as she grows larger.

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives

16 years ago to this weekend was Katrina.

Worringly some of New orleans pumps are out of action https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_2f508a9e-06b8-11ec-91fd-3f5d8662ebe7.html

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Kaboom....

 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Exploding into life now. A couple of days ago I knew this would likely be much bigger than a cat 2. Ida will be passing over the gulf loop current, at its warmest annual temperature with little shear. A recipe for an absolute bomb out. Very worrying at how little time people have to evacuate from the Gulf coast and how late warnings have been. Hoping not too many get caught short/out from this. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
On 27/08/2021 at 18:13, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Exploding into life now. A couple of days ago I knew this would likely be much bigger than a cat 2. Ida will be passing over the gulf loop current, at its warmest annual temperature with little shear. A recipe for an absolute bomb out. Very worrying at how little time people have to evacuate from the Gulf coast and how late warnings have been. Hoping not too many get caught short/out from this. 

I think the nhc have been very shy with forecasting strengths with the last couple of storm systems and seem abit late to the party

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

Edited by matty40s
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Oh dear...

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