Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[Windysun1]

7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Great stuff guys, this is imo the result of the end of the last 3 x 20 year pulse of Atlanticisation of the Arctic Ocean (60 year cycle and no new pulse for 60 yrs).  Ended 2018/9 so lag takes 2020 into account.  The rebound looks good, with the La Nina (which I think a Nina footprint will be more apparent this winter).  Alaska already suffering colder temps and more snow due to the improvement of ice and Siberia registering serious early cold.

 

BFTP

Hald V Denmark down to - 40 for the last week or so. Quiet a drop.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all,...i don't normally post in here but comparing today to 2010 and i have to say the SAI up on that comparison...

the sea ice is doing rather well too compared to last year.

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

the sea ice is doing rather well too compared to last year.

 

Yes, better all round compared to last year.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Nice to see some of the people posting who normally give it a miss.

Masie today reflected the rapid turn of events to a more cyclonic and stormy spell of weather.

Today's extent was 8,695K Km2 an increase of just (+39K).

The 'new' environment for the ice freeze that I  spoke about yesterday has continued today, with no gains in the Russian waters (a slight loss in total of (-11K)),  with no real change except a slight loss of (-7K) in Beaufort.

In North America, however, we see (contrary to my post of yesterday) that Baffin added another (+35K) and joined up the ice out at sea   with Greenland itself..  (See screen shot below).

Screenshot 2021-11-03 16.55.21.png

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CAA continued to freeze and the ice added another (+14k). Hudson has not responded yet, but give it time, as cold air is now sinking across the area with the Lake effect snow in the Great Lakes already starting up.

At the moment the refreeze has entered a bit of a lull, with the refreeze now  ( having rapidly frozen internally within the basin}, and is now waiting for the ice in the more peripheral areas to start their refreeze.

With the loss of the high pressure over the area, the Arctic temperatures are also now stalling - 

 

Volume and extent of sea ice for October continued to be above recent years levels, being the 10th highest in the last 16 years.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ 

which gives the NSIDC monthly report for October.

Their summary statement -

'Overall, ice extent increased by 99,700 square kilometers (38,500 square miles) per day during the month of October. This rate of increase was larger than the 1981 to 2010 average of 89,200 square kilometers (34,400 square miles) per day.' it being about 12% higher than a normal recent October.

says it all really.

 

  The 'area' as shown alongside, has also increased for the Month of October.

 

MIA

Edited November 3, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

I may have  ' a get round' /solved the problem with the sea and snow charts which used/are to be published by NSIDC.

Where certain people are still unable to access the site for nearly 2 weeks now.

I have had more success when I use  Internet explorer rather than edge.

The difference? Explorer has an interface to ftp, whereas Edge does not.

It seems as though internally the NSIDC mainly use ftp as their file transfer and data storage mechanism. 

They seem to segregate their users into ftp capable or not, and direct them to different network ports.

Their network transmission program (TCP) allows different entry criteria for each port.

One of these ports has not yet been updated to allow http (non ftp capable)  access, correctly.

I seem to remember that they had a similar problem at the previous update.

Whether they will update it is questionable. 

Whether I am correct or not... It works on Explorer.

MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

You are not going to believe this????....

Its just started working again on 'Edge'......

MIA

[Turnedoutniceagain]

[Mapantz]

On 03/11/2021 at 19:31, Midlands Ice Age said:

I may have  ' a get round' /solved the problem with the sea and snow charts which used/are to be published by NSIDC.

Where certain people are still unable to access the site for nearly 2 weeks now.

I have had more success when I use  Internet explorer rather than edge.

The difference? Explorer has an interface to ftp, whereas Edge does not.

It seems as though internally the NSIDC mainly use ftp as their file transfer and data storage mechanism. 

They seem to segregate their users into ftp capable or not, and direct them to different network ports.

Their network transmission program (TCP) allows different entry criteria for each port.

One of these ports has not yet been updated to allow http (non ftp capable)  access, correctly.

I seem to remember that they had a similar problem at the previous update.

Whether they will update it is questionable. 

Whether I am correct or not... It works on Explorer.

MIA 

Hi MIA 

Google removed FTP support from Chromium, so Edge no longers supports it either. 

I think you can configure Edge to automatically open FTP links in Explorer, but I would probably use an FTP client like WinSCP, if you get anymore issues.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Hi MIA 

Google removed FTP support from Chromium, so Edge no longers supports it either. 

I think you can configure Edge to automatically open FTP links in Explorer, but I would probably use an FTP client like WinSCP, if you get anymore issues.

 

Thanks Mapantz,,

You are correct, and I have configured my Edge to go to Explorer for ftp, but it uses it for file transfer quite correctly, but not for links or http protocols. 

As my next note above states it seems that someone has pulled a  switch somewhere,  as I now can access the files in question through my Edge interface.

I do remember that this also happened last time back in the spring when the  NSIDC upgraded, so it is probable that  they just forgot to do something. 

MIA

 

[Bradley in Kent]

On 03/11/2021 at 15:26, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all,...i don't normally post in here but comparing today to 2010 and i have to say the SAI up on that comparison...

the sea ice is doing rather well too compared to last year.

 

Good evening, like many coldies I always hope for a repeat of 2010 hence I also look out for similar circumstances to that year. 

A part of me does wonder though whether even since then we've pumped out enough greenhouse gases to water down such situation should it repeat. Since November 2010, we've increased the CO2 levels by almost 7% not including other greenhouse gases and water vapour. When you think about it, that's just over 4,000 days which is both incredible and scary! 

When you go further back it's no wonder winters in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed up!

I haven't calculated it but I'd guess since 1963 CO2 is about half of what it is now. A tad disconcerting that there's about a 40 year delay between atmospheric level and warming. 

As this isn't the CC thread I'll stop there, but I thought I'd mention as many, including myself, compare current conditions against cold winters of past. 

Take care all

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Good evening, like many coldies I always hope for a repeat of 2010 hence I also look out for similar circumstances to that year. 

A part of me does wonder though whether even since then we've pumped out enough greenhouse gases to water down such situation should it repeat. Since November 2010, we've increased the CO2 levels by almost 7% not including other greenhouse gases and water vapour. When you think about it, that's just over 4,000 days which is both incredible and scary! 

When you go further back it's no wonder winters in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed up!

I haven't calculated it but I'd guess since 1963 CO2 is about half of what it is now. A tad disconcerting that there's about a 40 year delay between atmospheric level and warming. 

As this isn't the CC thread I'll stop there, but I thought I'd mention as many, including myself, compare current conditions against cold winters of past. 

Take care all

 

 

Here one for the cold fans and comparisons to 2010..the only year i have not seen snow cover before my Birthday (12th) was Nov 2010..its does look like there will be no snow cover this year also..in fact this year autumn has been similar to 2010 thus far so who knows

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Good evening, like many coldies I always hope for a repeat of 2010 hence I also look out for similar circumstances to that year. 

A part of me does wonder though whether even since then we've pumped out enough greenhouse gases to water down such situation should it repeat. Since November 2010, we've increased the CO2 levels by almost 7% not including other greenhouse gases and water vapour. When you think about it, that's just over 4,000 days which is both incredible and scary! 

When you go further back it's no wonder winters in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed up!

I haven't calculated it but I'd guess since 1963 CO2 is about half of what it is now. A tad disconcerting that there's about a 40 year delay between atmospheric level and warming. 

As this isn't the CC thread I'll stop there, but I thought I'd mention as many, including myself, compare current conditions against cold winters of past. 

Take care all

 

 

 

2010 was a one off and nothing to do with your favorite topic - which is banned on here.

Are you linking 1962  to today?

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Here one for the cold fans and comparisons to 2010..the only year i have not seen snow cover before my Birthday (12th) was Nov 2010..its does look like there will be no snow cover this year also..in fact this year autumn has been similar to 2010 thus far so who knows

Although ground conditions  look similar between this year and 2010, the odds of a similar monster cold spell are very low, as the stratospheric conditions are not the same. (See below for a further discussion) Gosh I wish (how I wish) it would happen again.!!

Masie update today. 

Masie extent 8,789K Km2  up by (+94K)...

In general  the same conditions as per yesterday are still the primary drivers of the sea ice.

Much colder air is now driving down through Central North and North Eastern Canada and this has triggered the growth of the ice up there just in time to save the diminishing returns from the Russian oceans and to keep us on path for a good re-growth.

 Consequently we had gains again in Baffin(+25K), and especially again the CAA (+40K) and as the cold air reaches Hudson a positive value of (+11K) kicked off the refreeze in the North of the Hudson Bay.

All very positive and just the right time to take over from the nearly full Russian major oceans.

However there,  Beaufort rose (+5K)  and Chukchi (+14K),  both being attacked by the polar cap being driven forward by the Northerly westerly winds and low centered there. This has also allowed the ice to freeze over in Baring (+6K), which now looks ready to freeze over, very shortly.

These same winds blew the ice from the west in Kara and into Laptev, and pushed the ice back a very large (-50K) .

Elsewhere the wind moved (+30K) into the Greenland Seas, and Barents increased slowly by (+7K).

 So quite a bit of variability in ice growth now that low pressure is dominating the Arctic.

      

These same low pressures will soon start to drive the cold weather out of the area, in the form of fairly powerful cold Northerly outbreaks in more temperate latitudes.

Talking about the stratosphere (as above)  has prompted me to look at that for the first time this year.

Antarctica, this year, has seen a very large Ozone hole develop, due to the very cold winter they have experienced.

A reminder that temperatures below -80C can destroy Ozone. Even though temperatures are now more fairly normal for the time of year, the damage in the stratosphere has been extensive.

The Arctic stratosphere normally shows hardly any changes at this time of year as normally there are few atmospheric waves around to push the Ozone into the Arctic.

 However this year we have seen the arrival of a  huge 'wave' of Ozone into Canada, from the South West,  across the Baring Ocean from off the Asia continent.

 

The  above worldwide chart of Ozone shows both of these totally opposing events in the extremity.

It will be interesting to see whether or not the effect of this 'wavefront' of Ozone has any effect in promoting warmth into the stratosphere. If it does, then  it could cause a classic 'Canadian warming' (and high pressure)  as occurred in 1962.

For those new to Ozone chemistry it is very reactive to Ultra violet light (we have an excess in a low sun scenario as in this cycle) , and will combine with many of the trace gasses that are up there to create, among other things,  heat.

Let see if this takes us anywhere.

 MIA

 

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[throwoff]

The build up of ice is fantastic to see. 

The golden rule is always, get the cold in and the snow will follow. A nice big ice build up gives us a place to build a real pool of cold air.

[Midlands Ice Age]

A couple more days of somewhat subdued sea ice growth.

Masie extent now at 8,882K Km2 after increases of (+8K and +85K) in the last 2 days.

Once again mainly slack low pressure is dominating the Arctic itself, but as I suggested the colder air is now seeping out southwards. 

Consequently North America is entering full freeze mode, with Baffin (+40K) over the 2 days,  CAA (+36K) and Hudson (+12K) all moved forward, although about a week later than recently.

 Of some interest is that the lake snow effect on Lake Michigan is still visible on the satellites.

                  (NASIDC working for me again!)

In the Arctic itself, both Beaufort (+5K) and Chukchi (+26K), grew as the pack continued south eastwards,

By now the colder air is also reaching  the Pacific coastline with Bering (+18K) and SOO (+3K) both infilling the bays in preparation for a major push from the north to freeze the oceans.

Of interest is that Eastern Siberia is still in the grip of a major freeze with minimum temps of around -30C for long periods even during the day.  

The one area struggling is Kara for now, where strong winds from the west are still pushing the ice back in towards Laptev with losses of (_50K, -20K and -18K) over the last 3 days.

Next door,  Barents (+2K and +16K) has avoided the worst of the conditions and is continuing to grow slightly, unlike Greenland which lost (-23K).

No real change in the Ozone so far in the Northern hemisphere although the levels have dropped in Central Northern Russia, while intensifying slightly over the Baring Sea -.

Weather models are all over the place at the moment so I decided not too look at Climate Reanalyser (GFS), until things settle down again.

 MIA.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie comes up with a sudden Ice Fest, with all areas increasing.

Masie today  increased by  (+237K Km2) to 9,119K Km2.

- Led by North America again with  Greenland (+39k), Baffin(+27K), CAA (+25K ) and Hudson a large promising kick at (+24k).

Add in Baring (+20K) and SOO (+2K) and it is obvious the second  phase of the sea ice refreeze has started.

Also a very early start for Baltic (+1K) indicates that Northern Scandinavia is also cooling down. 

Beaufort (+15K) and Chukchi (+25K) are now headed for completion, and Kara (+32K) changed its recent losses, and this also allowed Barents (+21K) to join the second phase refreeze.

Temperatures also fell after their recent spike. 

                    

   

Low Pressure  has re=started to  dominate the Russian coastline  as high pressure again trues to  establish itself  over Northern Canada, and is sealing in the newly established cold there.

An interesting week is coming up.

MIA

Edited November 7, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[DavidS]

Big expansion of snow cover into Mongolia and Northern China.  Would like to see the Russian snow cover, re start it’s rather stalled move westward.  We may see this in the next few days.

[throwoff]

15 hours ago, DavidS said:

Big expansion of snow cover into Mongolia and Northern China.  Would like to see the Russian snow cover, re start it’s rather stalled move westward.  We may see this in the next few days.

Massive expansion of snow that. Be nice to see some more pixels developing into western Europe as well.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another virtually double century for the sea ice extent as North America takes over the running. 

 

Masie moved up to 9,300K Km2 with an increase of (+182K) today.

Characterized by J.I.T. increases  starting up in North America just as the ice refreeze in the Arctic in Russia hits the extent buffers. Thickness, though, continues to grow nicely  at slightly above normal rates -

 

 

Back to extent -

Greenland (+26K) and Baffin (+51K) sprinted ahead and Baffin now connecting by the ice from Greenland to Canada.

CAA had a consolidation day, but Hudson Bay (northern section) is now undergoing its  refreeze as it adds (+11K).

Screenshot 2021-11-08 17.07.24.png

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Of interest is that the polar bears in Churchill are queuing up to get back onto the ice!! It is claimed that they know when the ice is coming ..   

Chukchi (+17K) is now expanding rapidly towards the Baring pennisula, but Beaufort opened up a gap Just out to sea (-16K).

Barents (+13K) continues to expand in towards Svalbard, whilst Kara got back the ice it lost in the last 3 days (+57K), and is now lapping onto Novaya Zemlya again having pulled back by by 50-100miles. 

Screenshot 2021-11-08 17.09.20.png

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I found this on the A.S.I.Forum and thought it is of interest as to what happened to the ice two or three days ago when we had a sudden drawback of the ice especially in Beaufort and Kara, when the sudden deep Arctic depression formed over Chukchi and ESS -

  It depicts the ice flow movement and direction.

DMI temperatures have now fallen below their previous lows at 255.6K, This is 6C lower than last year for the same date.

The effect on the ice this year has been dramatic in the Russian sector, where most of this ice has formed.

 The current ice position as graphically depicted by Masie shows the impact 

 

       

The last 2 graphs above show that the eastern side of the polar ice is  likely to keep powering ahead. Refreeze having started earlier than for the last 5 years.

Whilst the 3 graphs below show that the North American ice sheets are growing  normally now  after a very slow start.

       

What is in store for the next week I intend examining in my next review. 

 MIA

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

More and more similarities between ice and snow cover in 2010 and today!!

It couldn't could it?

Its getting uncanny now.  (2010 vs 2021)

 

                       

 

and 

                   

Slightly more ice in Bering, Chukchi and surprisingly Baffin and Hudson Bay this year.

A little  less ice in the south of CAA and parts of Beaufort next to the coastline, also the pack is not quite as far advanced in Barents 

Snow coverage is a lot more extensive this year in both central southern Russia / Asia , and also surprisingly in  North America. 

Despite all this - 2010 was a once in a hundred years event - so that  dictates it will go wrong!!! ???

MIA

 

 

[Northernlights]

On 08/11/2021 at 20:59, Midlands Ice Age said:

More and more similarities between ice and snow cover in 2010 and today!!

It couldn't could it?

Its getting uncanny now.  (2010 vs 2021)

 

                       

 

and 

                   

Slightly more ice in Bering, Chukchi and surprisingly Baffin and Hudson Bay this year.

A little  less ice in the south of CAA and parts of Beaufort next to the coastline, also the pack is not quite as far advanced in Barents 

Snow coverage is a lot more extensive this year in both central southern Russia / Asia , and also surprisingly in  North America. 

Despite all this - 2010 was a once in a hundred years event - so that  dictates it will go wrong!!! ???

MIA

May well happen. Same time in solar cycle as in 2010 plus in my opinion the added extra of the reduction of pollution from aircraft /vehicles with a bit of a lag effect just like the solar cycle.  Maybe I"ll be wrong with that theory.

 

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

More and more similarities between ice and snow cover in 2010 and today!!

It couldn't could it?

Its getting uncanny now.  (2010 vs 2021)

 

                       

 

and 

                   

Slightly more ice in Bering, Chukchi and surprisingly Baffin and Hudson Bay this year.

A little  less ice in the south of CAA and parts of Beaufort next to the coastline, also the pack is not quite as far advanced in Barents 

Snow coverage is a lot more extensive this year in both central southern Russia / Asia , and also surprisingly in  North America. 

Despite all this - 2010 was a once in a hundred years event - so that  dictates it will go wrong!!! ???

MIA

 

 

We had two once in 100yr rain fall events in the space of 6 years! Nov 09 and Dec 15.. 

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

We had two once in 100yr rain fall events in the space of 6 years! Nov 09 and Dec 15.. 

3 in 10 if you count Jan. 2005 as well, so who's to say what's possible or not

[Wheezer]

[Wheezer]

[daz_4]

Barents and Kara should cool down nicely in the coming days.