Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[damianslaw]

Early snow build up over Scandanavia is a good factor for feedback loop increasing chance of colder weather here I feel. 2009 saw a sudden build, also 2012 I think..

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 days since the last and another update....

Snow becoming more extensive in Siberia, but the snowfall in the plains of the US is now showing up and can be expected to expand rapidly on tomorrow's charts.

             

The 7day animation above for Russia and Alaska is quite revealing...

Despite many Arctic sea ice experts views on the ASI Forum, sea ice seems determined to cover the Russian Arctic in a very quick time.  

I mentioned  a possible ice 'flash'  freeze a couple of days back, but put forward the view that it was probably impossible due to the high SST's. (A view I had been given on the ASIF).   -   Well, well another theory bites the dust...

Masie has just updated and has increased by (+164K K2) on the day to 6,174K Km2. This follows a smaller than usual increase yesterday of +43K Km2. 

So Beaufort (+9 and -2K)  and Chukchi (+11 and -8K) went into reverse yesterday, contrary to the expert opinion.

However the ESS (-1 and +82K) suddenly went into flash freeze mode, and this seemed to encourage the ice next door in Laptev  to spring back eastwards towards it, (from its footholds around the Severnia Zemlya Islands main ice pack).  Laptev gained (+23 and +27K) over the 2 days. Both it and the ESS look primed now for large gains over the next 3 or 4 days.

 

Screenshot 2021-10-13 15.51.10.png

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Elsewhere along the coastline, Kara too burst into life with (-9 and +32K).

So, suddenly we have the Russian seas rapidly icing over and this was re-enforced by the Central Arctic which gained  (-1 and +17K) as the main ice pack marched southwards into the Jan Mayen Islands (see screenshot above).

Greenland continues to gain (+7 and +33K) as the Fram Current gets established.

However the NW American oceans remain the laggards,  with (CAA +4 and -8K) and Baffin (-1 and -16K) as winds continued to blow the ice around. 

 

So overall the sea ice extent as given by MASIE looks very strong and this is being backed up the JAXA series dat as shown below -

               

Above links copied from ASIF (with thanks).

MIA

Edited October 13, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Winter wonder]

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Lots of snowfall in Scandinavia and a big increase in Polar ice 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

12 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Lots of snowfall in Scandinavia and a big increase in Polar ice 

 

Snow now spreading out more widely. Our turn soon!!!

Meanwhile the Ice showed another very good day.

As shown above sea ice expanded rapidly, with Masie sea ice extent averaging 130K Km2 over the last 2 days, with the Russian front still very active.

Masie total extent now at 6.443K Km2 with increases of +70K and +199K Km2 over the last 2 days. 

US seas started to record increases with Beaufort (-6 and +6K), Baffin (-11 and +2K),  Hudson (0 and  a first showing of +1K)_and . CAA (+12 and +31K).

However,  it is slow compared to..

Chukchi (+1 and +3K), Laptev (+32 and +75K, (with another flash icing there)), ESS (33 and +48K (both growing inshore and meeting the Laptev out to sea)), Kara (+4 and +21K).

 Elsewhere Greenland grew south again (+5 and +_18K)  and the Central pack went slightly negative at (-9 and -4K).. 

All the above  mean that the DMI ice extent stats are now looking strong, and look to exceed the good refreeze season of 2017.

 

The detail over the individual ares are given in the link below..

MASIE Time Series Plots | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org)

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

 

Arctic DMI (above 80 degrees temperature)  plots are showing we are about 4C lower than last year at the same date, and this has resulted in about 800 - 1200K Km2 more ice..

 

The 10 day forecast chart from Climate Reanalyser shows further cooling with minimum temperature dropping widely below -30C in Siberia and below -50C in Greenland, and also with -30C extending on to the main polar ice sheet in the next 10 days as high pressure take hold in continuous darkness. 

              

It is also interesting to note that the 'blocking low' in the Bering Straits area is maintaining the cold in the Eastern Arctic and no real warmth is being drawn (or advected) in from the Atlantic.

Still looking like a very good refreeze season so far.

MIA

 

 

 

 

                                                                   b  

 

 

Edited October 15, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

As I have a bit more time tonight, I have decided to do a 'daily' update for you.

 Actually I lie,        the wife has Strictly on!!!

Continued expansion of the snow now.  Big area dumped in Scandinavia today.

Sea Ice expanded steadily with new 'peripheral' areas starting to show the first signs of refreeze.

Masie sea ice extent increased by (+119K Km2 ) to 6562K Km2.

All sea areas recorded a positive increase in ice today, with Beaufort (+19K) back in expansion , as  is Chukchi (+3K).

The Russian front continues towards a rapid freeze season with ESS (+34K),  Laptev (+11K), and Kara (+8K).

Both the ESS and Kara saw ice develop both at sea and in scattered patches out in the ocean. A sure sigh (to me) that a rapid freeze is imminent.

Greenland (+12K) saw a patch of ice on the coast (much further south than the main ice  pack), develop.

Baffin continued inits new growth mode with (+8K), but it is still the laggard.

The CAA (+15K) again grew  as ice formed  in many of the bays and islets. Next door, Hudson (+2K) followed the first sign of freeze yesterday,  with a further push south into the northern area of the bay.

That just leaves the Central pack which has continued to rotate slowly while expanding again.  (+1K).

Also of note is that the first ice has been recorded in Bering as the ice has crept southwards along both the Alaskan (Beaufort) and Siberian coastlines  (ESS).

 Temperatures are continuing to fall (though a bit more slowly - at the moment), and are now at 260K (about -13C) on average over the Arctic area. Plenty cool enough, with only light winds in general, to keep the freeze moving forward.

I have not mentioned volume for a while this season and this seems to be progressing steadily. Although with delays to PIOMAS being reported, I can only refer to DMI, which I attach below -

MIA

Edited October 16, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

This mornings NSIDC Charts for Alaska and Asia -

More snow  and particularly Ice gains --

        and just for interest        

 

Which is the situation for the same day last year.

JAXA has just recorded its second 150+K Km2 day on the trot now as the ice freeze up really boosts up. This follows 3 days when it averaged around (+100K) days.

DMI (above 80 degrees)  continues to fall steadily and is now below 260Kelvin. (-14C) - Promising more sea ice gains.

Again for comparison last year was still at or above 260Kelvin on the 13/11/2020. Though it had dropped below 260Kelvin for a short while around the 26/10. Also more positive is there is no sign of a 'warm up'  anytime soon.

        

Back later on with the Masie data.

MIA

Edited October 18, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[throwoff]

Today

Compared to the glory builder that was 2010

We are building snow in Scandi in a similar pattern and Ice coverage is to a similar scale.

Comparing to 2019, which for most of us was a total wash out when it comes to snow, we have a much more substantial ice build up.

[Midlands Ice Age]

As promised the review of Masie and a view of the refreeze so far....

Masie extent increased by (+165K Km2) today to a total of 6,797K Km2. 

Once again it is the 'Russian' sea areas (or next to them) in the Arctic Ocean, which are forging ahead.

Beaufort (+27K) is now forming open ocean ice and will link up Alaska  with the main pack in the next couple of days.

Chuckchi too pushed ahead (+22K) and will soon be 'full'.

ESS is still bounding ahead with another mass freeze (+69K), and will soon be linking up with the main pack right across the ocean.

Laptev (+32K) is now filling in along the coastline with all the large estuaries (more fresh water) now just about iced in, but heading towards the main ESS ice on the one-side whilst expanding towards Kara on the other..

Kara (+6K) itself is now icing along its coastline and seeing a slow progress of the main pack southwards.

Barents is seeing the first coastal ice forming (+1K). A bIt later than the average, but still not late. 

So all the 'eastern'  ice seas are  either above average or are all well above for the time of year. It must be the first time for many years that this has happened.   (12?)

Also note that if we include the CAB (Central) (+9K today), it includes most of the main Arctic Ocean long lived ice, and this must be a positive. 

It is not the same in the western side however.

Greenland (+1K) and Baffin(+2K) both reported an increase, but are subdued at the moment.

CAA lost again today (-5K), as did Hudson Bay which are slower than recent years,  but will all melt out anyway next year.

 

However, the other 'outer' sea areas are now showing signs of icing up.

Ice is now forming in both the SOO (1K), and the Bering Straits (+1K) - earlier than most recent years. Again notice these are classified as 'eastern' sea areas. 

 The above is summarized in the DMI link below, and the graphs attached -.

MASIE Time Series Plots | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org)
Regional graphs - Arctic Sea Ice Graphs (google.com)

In addition the temperature is now falling more quickly than average. 

 

 

High pressure is continuing to dominate the Central Arctic Ocean. This is not allowing any 'warmer' air to penetrate into the central Arctic. Whilst this continues I cannot see any reduction in the rate of ice growth.

It is many years since we have had a similar Arctic weather profile.

MIA 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

A long finger of snow extending down the Urals, Northern Sweden well and truly dumped and Iceland too. Big increase in Polar Ice 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

12 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A long finger of snow extending down the Urals, Northern Sweden well and truly dumped and Iceland too. Big increase in Polar Ice 

 

Yep... Snow likely to expand to most of Northern Eurasia by the end of the week. 

 Things are moving into winter very quickly now in the 'East', but more slowly than recent years  in the 'West'.

 Perhaps this year is the year of a new trend.. 

 Today's Masie is a typical example...

Masie total extent increased by a further (+175K Km2) to a total of 6,972K Km2,

Beaufort (+35K) has just about sealed the pack ice to the mainland.

Chukchi is now slowly filling up (+10K).

 ESS (+70K) is now approaching total coverage.

But was beaten to day by Laptev (+80K). Which finally achieved 'flash freeze' status.

This whole area will be iced about 6 weeks before last years.

Elsewhere Kara(+24K), and Central (+8K) gained but the US sea areas had small losses losses  with a large loss in the CAA (-37K). 

Screenshot 2021-10-19 19.26.15.png

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 Volume is also responding well according to the DMI thickness and volume charts - being in 7/9th position in the last 15 years -

 

Of particularly interest is the sudden increase in thickness (reds, yellows and green  in the above chart), 2 - 4.5 meters depth - so soon after refreeze has started.

This will need watching over the next few weeks as it could be the basis for future multi-year ice increases.

 

MIA

Edited October 19, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Winter wonder]

      Central Asia gaining snow cover.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Fresh Cairngorms snowfall  

 

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Blozzel said:

      Central Asia gaining snow cover.

Could do with a good push west in the days ahead.. 

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Fresh Cairngorms snowfall  

 

Better than nothing! Suspect these same scenes tomorrow morning will be white. 

[Don]

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Could do with a good push west in the days ahead.. 

Yep, at the stage now when it needs to advance west quickly.  However, Scandinavia looks to be doing ok.

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, at the stage now when it needs to advance west quickly.  However, Scandinavia looks to be doing ok.

2012 brought a rapid advance in the last week of October. Some years though see a early advance that stutters as it reaches the Urals. A positive is the early snow cover over Scandi. 2009 did this..

[Frost HoIIow]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

2012 brought a rapid advance in the last week of October. Some years though see a early advance that stutters as it reaches the Urals. A positive is the early snow cover over Scandi. 2009 did this..

Looks like that classic stuttering near the Urals as it looks like Perm will be the last stop for snow, at least in Russia. Probably won't get much further west than this for the next 10 days. 

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I wonder if this will generate a pixel’s worth of snow in the latest map?

[Midlands Ice Age]

It is 2 days since my last update..

No snow and ice chart for today as USNIC are under-going maintenance.

 

However Masie sea ice extent is pretty spectacular with a rise of +247K Km2 (after (+106K) yesterday) to 7,325K Km2 total.

Whilst JAXA is remaining constant with increases around 175K Km2 on each day. 

Beaufort connected Alaska to the main pack with gains of (+7 and +25K Km2).  Chukchi was variable with (+21 and -19K).

The ESS is finishing its icing now, but recorded  (+9 and +37K).

But Laptev showed a huge gain again with (+61 and +105K) over the 2 days.  This is greater than the land occupied by the UK.

Remember that Laptev (due to its high SST's a month ago) was thought by experts  to be the area to hold out the ice for the longest period.!! 

 Chukchi is now progressing well with (+7 and +20K), whilst Barents for the first time recorded ice around Svalbard (+2 and +7K).

Greenland (+16 and +_12K), and CAA (+5 and +24K) both gained. 

Central (CAB) gained (-14 and +18K) as the main pack moved southwards.

Bering is also now showing up with an ice gain of (+2K) yesterday.

Screenshots below give an idea of the ice advance, both in Russia and Alaska.

Screenshot 2021-10-21 16.55.43.png

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2021 is now about 2,000K KM2 ahead of last year, and October looks as though it could be the 2nd highest in the last 10 years.

What has changed in the last 12 months?

MIA

[Winter wonder]

Beaufort Gyre?

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 hours ago, Winter wonder said:

Beaufort Gyre?

As I  am at home today,  with a bit of spare time, before the garden (If it doesn't rain) calls me. I thought I would try and 'dig' out a bit more about this. 

(prepare for a longish post) 

Starting in early July things looked fairly normal (as per the last 2-5 years) with the usual drop in sea ice extent and volume.

We then went into a period of very slack 'cool' depressions just hanging around and not moving much within the Central Arctic. They were not imported ones so in general did not bring in any warmer air, and just resulted in cold stagnant conditions..

These are ideal conditions for retaining ice, and ice melt duly stalled.

This lasted until early Sept when more vigorous depressions moved in and looked as if they might  cause a later than normal minimum, but they rapidly decayed and we had a 'normal' end date for the melt season.

Conditions then turned more anticyclonic, until the end of September, and we had a high Sept ice growth rate overall.

See the monthly extent chart below from the ASIF showing the effect.

Since then we have developed the anticyclone in a very good place for stopping any warmth/depressions from entering the Arctic. These conditions still exist today, (though possibly weakening slightly - see charts below)  with the blocking low in Bering Straits preventing any warmth from reaching from the Pacific, and the Atlantic (as we all know) in lockdown mode!. So the Atlantic also is not contributing at the moment.

This pattern has allowed the cold clear Arctic nights to take hold and the Arctic has cooled more readily than for many years.  

  

The chart above clearly shows how the critical Sept ice growth rate has oscillated over the period of record.

 Are we just climbing out of the clearly cyclic pattern of ice growth in September?

 

At that stage the sea ice volume did not give us much indication of a quick refreeze to follow.

Below I show what has happened to the thickness and the ice volume in the Arctic since mid August.

(DMI is the only one at the moment giving us a status of the daily ice volume as PIOMAS is having data issues with GOOGLE).

It may/perhaps give us an insight into what is currently happening.

            

So the first 2 charts show what happened over the minimum this year. Pretty normal - although at that stage (with ice volume about 8th in the 20 year record) it looked as if we had averted a catastrophic minima.

Moving on to mid Sept and we see that the ice is starting to grow,having passed the minimum.

But interestingly, at that stage, we can see no real thickness in Chukchi and Beaufort. ESS and Laptev still (as usual) for recent years - devoid of ice. 

Now move on a month to the current - we see that the ice seems to have thickened 'insitu' in Chukchi and Beaufort (around 2 meters already), and that this thicker ice is already spreading into the ESS and Laptev.   It also shows how thicker ice  has developed along the edge of the central ice pack above Jan Mayen Islands  and is now moving towards Northern Svalbard.

It looks to me (assuming DMI is correct) that we are seeing ice thickening rapidly 'insitu' in these areas. From say last 2 years (although last year was a bad year in the same areas for ice growth) we can see that most of these same areas were still ice free.

         

 

So what has caused this rapid thickening?.

 I can only see the anticyclone perched right on top of the pole for a month now (and forecast to stay for a bit longer)  as the explanation. So in other words the state of the atmosphere is dictating the rate of growth of the ice.

Now if we assume that the current conditions are a one-off, then we will rapidly return (in the next melt season now) to a more usual melting pattern,  but if not then this year could be something of a changer.  Looking back on DMI (I'll leave you to do that! It seems to be the first year for many years that the 'eastern' sector of the Arctic has developed this quickly.

The next month or so will be quite critical to this growth season.

(Today and 10 days time - both sea level pressure and 2m average temps)

         

          

As can be seen very little is forecast (GFS) to change in the Arctic.

Will the current rapid ice growth continue under the higher pressure with the winds being pulled around from cold Greenland (perfect for keeping the cold in the East)? and 

Will the more Western areas join in?

If this pattern 'sticks' then what has caused it?

We will wait and see.

MIA

 

 

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

18 hours ago, Winter wonder said:

Beaufort Gyre?

Winter wonder...

So now back to your original proposal.

It cannot be ruled out as the charts (DMI for thickness and volume  for July/August 2021 I displayed above), even then showed  that for this year  that the extension of the Beaufort Ice to the ESS area is/was still there.

 If you now compare with the similar charts for 2019 and 2020 above, you can observe that no extension into even the Chukchi was present. 

So it is classic chicken and egg. 

Did the position of the low pressure in July allow the Beaufort Gyre to start up, or was it the lows themselves that got it moving?

Which ever way it does seem to be a part of a currently ongoing pattern.

Is it a more longer term change?

I had noticed a rapid increase in the sea ice in 2018 March(?) before the Beast from the East was let loose here, that before then there was a rapid thickening of the sea ice in a similar area (where the SSW Anticyclone set up shop for month) over the Arctic.I remember making a note in here about it.

       

Look at the way the volume reacted!!. 

Perhaps anticyclones over central Arctic are good for the ice in ice growth seasons, but not in the summer(!), whereas flat low pressure is good during periods of ice melt?.

I do not think we have had this sort of combination for quite a few years. 

 MIA                                                                             

Edited October 22, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Time for today's update from Masie...

Last from me for today.

Still USNIC is down. So no snow charts. Reports on ASIF that it could be serious as they are reporting no data at all.

I thought to give an idea of the current snow situation  I would display a screenshot from GFS  (Climate Reananlyser).

It is not as picturesque, and is much more difficult to view properly,than the USNIC version..

The zoom function helps a bit though.

Screenshot 2021-10-22 15.17.20.png

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So it shows a gradual expansion in North America and a continued dumping in Scandinavia, with the snow moving eastwards now to join the Siberian freeze-up.

Masie sea ice extent is fairly incredible today with the largest, so far this year, increase of 251K Km2 to a total of 7,576k Km2 . 

This has been caused by an increase of no less than +172K Km2 in Laptev.

That is the largest I can recall being seen in a single area.

Next door Kara (+20K) and ESS(+25K) look almost mundane.. But Kara like Barents (+15K) is setting up new refreeze areas and could well be ready to take over from Laptev and ESS when they are full.

Also more signs of refreeze activity in North America today with Greenland (+17K), Baffin (+6k),and CAA (+34K).

Of note is that Masie has seen a reduction today in Beaufort (-34K) and Chukchi(-10K)..

 I suspect that the wind may well have pushed the ice back off-shore,but the maps have not updated yet, to confirm.

 MIA 

[Winter wonder]

Thank you MIA for your research.