Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[Midlands Ice Age]

I think that the 7 day Animation chart is the best for watching the snow changes. 

 

It clearly shows the movement of the small low across Central Russia, that I mentioned at the weekend. 

Also the start of the snow in Iceland,with the extension of the snow in North America..

Temperatures are now falling steadily in the Arctic as shown by the DMI 80 degrees ECM composite  chart.

Many people suggest that 265K (about -8C (average)) is the kickoff for the rapid refreeze of sea ice.

We will see.....

 

MIA

 

Edited September 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[The Eagle]

For salt water surface temperatures should be sub circa -1.7c to start the freezing process. Not in bad shape so far this ice season relatively speaking. Hopefully a pick up in formation next few days.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Sea ice growth after the summer minimum begins in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago | polarbearscience

POLARBEARSCIENCE.COM

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The Arctic sea ice minimum was declared to have been reached on 16 September this year (4.72 mkm2), breaking no records. Ice extent can only go up from this point forward but at this time of year, it happens...

 

[Aleman]

Ice has started to fill in bays and grow out from the coasts of both Siberia and Alaska so the infill towards the main ice pack has begun.

Click on 5th option:

https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, Aleman said:

Ice has started to fill in bays and grow out from the coasts of both Siberia and Alaska so the infill towards the main ice pack has begun.

Click on 5th option:

https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

 

 

I had reached the same conclusions myself Aleman, but from the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.  (ASIF)

There a poster (Aluminium),  who produces a 3 day changed ice map of the Arctic, had produced the following chart for today -

 

Careful zooming in of the Russian coastline shows the ice gradually forming here. (movements)

This has been  confirmed by another poster  who has just see  another new low for the date (30/9) of -24C at a place called Delyankir. This follows on from quite a few lows recorded in Siberia over the last few weeks.

Forecast and actual temperatures around the Arctic can be watched in this link, where it shows widespread temperatures of -16C in many places overnight in Siberia. Together with temps around -8C in the Inner Arctic itself (Wrangle Island) for the next week. 

 

 https://en.allmetsat.com/weather-forecast/arctic.php?city=prince-patrick-island-ca-nt

By clicking on the various coloured dots one can travel Around the Arctic fairly easily. 

 

I did not find the reference to the Ice Portal above you supplied very easy to use, as I can find no mention of Option 5. I did manage to navigate it eventually to bring up the extent of the new ice by using the AMSR 2  facility, but if there is a quicker method of 'getting' there I would be interested. 

 MIA

Edited October 1, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I did not find the reference to the Ice Portal above you supplied very easy to use, as I can find no mention of Option 5. I did manage to navigate it eventually to bring up the extent of the new ice by using the AMSR 2  facility, but if there is a quicker method of 'getting' there I would be interested. 

 MIA

My apologies for being unclear. Tick the 5th box - Ice Chart (NIC,MIZ) and perhaps untick the others. Zoom in on the uppermost part of the image and all that (yellow) ice along the coasts of Laptev and East Siberian is new.

Polar View

WWW.POLARVIEW.AQ

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A website about Polar View and related services in the Antarctic

If you tick the top box, Sentinel-1, and pick the appropriate satellite image, you can very clearly see the new ice that you referred to growing along the coast, e.g. an East Siberian sea bay is seen here - it's about 100km across so that new coastal ice band probably extends to 10km from shore in places. Coastal ice looks looks to extend further from shore in other places further west, not covered by today's series of satellite images, but those places might be seen in coming days.

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2021 by Aleman

[nobble]

Could the current volcano in the canaries effect this winters weather if it continues ?

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 hours ago, nobble said:

Could the current volcano in the canaries effect this winters weather if it continues ?

Extremely unlikely...

It seems as though the La Palma volcano has started to output larger volumes of SO2 today (it produces blue smoke). That is a possibility  (though not very large) for changing the climate if it gets into the upper atmosphere, as it really is a small happening in eruption terms still.

While on here thought it may be worthwhile showing today's Masie extent output, for what is happening along the Siberian/ Russian coastline. This is a snapshot -

Screenshot 2021-10-02 17.32.46.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

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Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

I hope it can be seen OK, otherwise I will have to generate a copylink for it.

Masie has been increasing more quickly in extent the last couple of days and is now at 5,429K Km2  after increasing rates over the last 3 days of 21K,  29K and today 58K Km2.

ice is now forming more generally now and can be expected to increase in the next few days.

Snow is spreading now through out Siberia -

MIA

Edited October 2, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Norrance]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 days now since my update from Saturday.

Snow has continued to increase steadily in both Siberia and Alaska/Canada as shown by the 7 day time lapse below -

 

Sea Ice after remaining 'static' for a couple of days has now 'burst' through with a century increase of 150K Km2. This follows 2/3 days of small negative feedback as the ice has been pushed around by winds.

A week ago I suggested that a tipping point temperature of 265K had been suggested as the tipping point for ice refreeze. Well it happened on Sunday when the temperature dropped to around 264.2K  (-8C) according to DMI (uses ECM data)..

  

Extent seemed to respond quite quickly.

 

Masie sea Ice extent now stands at 5,526K Km2, a gain of (+152K Km2) in the day, after a loss of (-59K) and a gain of (+4K) in the previous 2 reporting days.

Most of the extent gains were recorded pretty extensively with the Russian Arctic with Chukchi(+21K),  ESS(+24K),  Laptev(+8K), Kara(+5K) all increasing;  and  Greenland(+27K),  the Canadian Arctic(+26K) and the CAB (Central Arctic) (+24K)  finally bursting into life.

 With the temperature now falling more,  large gains can be expected as we enter the main refreeze season.

MIA

  

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Latest offering. Decent build up

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Latest offering. Decent build up

 

Now are into October, we need a rapid expansion of snow .

[Midlands Ice Age]

Further snow and ice expansion today.

Nice build up of snow in South Western Canada (pushing into more central areas now - towards the Great Lakes) and steady slight gains into Central Siberia.

See it  on the latest 7 day animation below as the temperatures continue to fall in the Arctic (80 degrees). The latest average temperature is 263.3K or almost exactly -10C over the polar ice sheets now.

 

           

Sea ice on Masie has increased steadily by 82K Km2 to just over 5.600K Km2 over the last 2 days. With no gains in Beaufort and Chukchi, but further expansion in the ESS,  Kara and Greenland. The central Arctic is now gaining ice quite nicely and has just gone over the 3,000K Km2 for the first time this year. 

I was thinking back to the small differences at this stage from last year.

If you remember we had a string of low pressure stretching from the West Bering Sea  to Svalbard for about 3 weeks covering most of October and these brought up very mild winds from the Pacific straight across the Russian Arctic ocean to Svalbard and totally halted ice production in the Russian sectors. This was heavily reported by BFTV at the time. 

This years charts (see below) are now developing in a similar manner!!

There is one subtle difference though >>>>>

The low over Bering is laying east to west at the entrance and this is forcing the wind around the southern portion to run in over the very cold (for time of year) western portion of the USA and Canada. This is cooling the air and by the time it reaches the Arctic itself it has been considerably cooled off. This seems to be helping the ice to form off the Russian coastline.

 

    and      

 

This is forecast to persist, and in 10 days time will look like this -

   and    

So it shows how just a slight orientation difference in these lows could well  produce a hugely different weather effect within the Arctic circle. It is also showing the development of a quite powerful anticyclone from Greenland over the central Arctic  ---- No sign yet of the polar vortex appearing.

Just of interest really to see what will happen.

 MIA

Edited October 7, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

As was being suggested ...

Yesterday looks like finally that the snow and ice both got their act together and steam ahead... 

Winter has arrived in the Arctic

 

JAXA records a century increase plus in sea ice , and massive snowfalls across North Eastern Canada and Northern Russia, 

MIA

Edited October 9, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

As was being suggested ...

Yesterday looks like finally the snow and ice both got their act together and steam ahead... 

Winter has arrived in the Arctic

 

JAXA records a century increase plus in sea ice , and massive snowfalls across North Eastern Canada and Northern Russia, 

MIA

Thanks for the updates, MIA; I find them to be very informative.

But, what intrigues me most is a possible inverse correlation between Arctic sea-ice and late Autumn/early winter snowfalls, especially along north-facing coasts(?)

It seems readily apparent to me (though a fair amount of what I find 'obvious' turns out to be fairy dust!) that, with ever-growing (over the long-term) amounts of open water around, whopping snowfalls will be more likely to occur than previously?

And, will not heavier/more widespread snowfalls turn areas some way inland colder than would've been the case?

Or am I being swayed by my recollections of 2012-13?

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Thanks for the updates, MIA; I find them to be very informative.

But, what intrigues me most is a possible inverse correlation between Arctic sea-ice and late Autumn/early winter snowfalls, especially along north-facing coasts(?)

It seems readily apparent to me (though a fair amount of what I find 'obvious' turns out to be fairy dust!) that, with ever-growing (over the long-term) amounts of open water around, whopping snowfalls will be more likely to occur than previously?

And, will not heavier/more widespread snowfalls turn areas some way inland colder than would've been the case?

Or am I being swayed by my recollections of 2012-13?

Pete...

Yep I do agree, I think that heavier snowfalls can be expected in the future, in areas aligned to more open water..

It certainly is showing above.

MIA

 

[Aleman]

This source is getting very interesting now that scattered ice is filling in new ice is expanding along various coastlines. Try ticking 5th, 6th and 7th boxes to get maps of the different densities and types of ice. (Hover over the icons next to the boxes to get the relevant keys/legends.) There is lots of subtle information to be had if you go through the various boxes and compare to the satellite images.

Polar View

WWW.POLARVIEW.AQ

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A website about Polar View and related services in the Antarctic

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Finland, Northern Sweden - first snowfalls.

Big increase in Polar ice too 

[Arch Stanton]

5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Finland, Northern Sweden - first snowfalls.

Big increase in Polar ice too 

Iceland looks caked in snow according to that - I wonder if thats unusual so early on in the season?

[Northwest NI]

It is quite unusual. I was there this time two years ago and there wasn’t any snow except on mountain tops. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Finland, Northern Sweden - first snowfalls.

Big increase in Polar ice too 

 

Snowfall is early in Iceland this year. I have been watching developments on the Iceland Volcano Forum as well as some postings from Kirkaldy Weather.

Been checking the sea ice increases, and they have been picked up by JAXA, ( a double century in the last 2 days) but MASIE has turned all 'shy' on us and did not publish yesterday. Perhaps she wants to hide her blushes! 

I am hoping that today's update about now will give us the 2 days of data.

In the meantime the 7 day animation (from USNIC, with thanks)  will have to do.

It shows a lot of ice increases, but especially those in the last 24 hrs  in the ESS, Chukchi and Kara, and even shows unexpected sporadic ice growth which is developing out in the Laptev Ocean. 

Other years this has been a prelude for a 'flash' ice out, but surely with the SST's being relatively high in Laptev  this cannot happen at this time of the Ice growth season?. The SST's in the rest of the Russian coastline are all low this year.

 Will be back with conformation (or not) when MASIE finally updates, and I can then see in more detail whether this 'ocean newly formed ice' is real..

MIA

Edited October 11, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

ys

15 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Snowfall is early in Iceland this year. I have been watching developments on the Iceland Volcano Forum as well as some postings from Kirkaldy Weather.

Been checking the sea ice increases, and they have been picked up by JAXA, ( a double century in the last 2 days) but MASIE has turned all 'shy' on us and did not publish yesterday. Perhaps she wants to hide her blushes! 

I am hoping that today's update about now will give us the 2 days of data.

In the meantime the 7 day animation (from USNIC, with thanks)  will have to do.

It shows a lot of ice increases, but especially those in the last 24 hrs  in the ESS, Chukchi and Kara, and even shows unexpected sporadic ice growth which is developing out in the Laptev Ocean. 

Other years this has been a prelude for a 'flash' ice out, but surely with the SST's being relatively high in Laptev  this cannot happen at this time of the Ice growth season?. The SST's in the rest of the Russian coastline are allow this year.

 Will be back with conformation (or not) when MASIE finally updates, and I can then see in more detail whether this 'ocean newly formed ice' is real..

MIA

Masie has just updated her datasets, but has not lifted her skirts and shown us her graphs and maps yet!!!. 

However it is obvious that a large 'refreeze' has occurred.

Masie's  total sea ice extent of 5.967K Km2, that is an increase of (+357K Km2) in the last 3 days. 

As suggested the Russian coastline really led the attack.

Beaufort continued along filling in with (+11K and +15K), but Chukch(+27,+12K),  ESS (+19, +22K), Kara(+6,+11K), and finally Laptev (+6, +22K) provided a general front.  So it looks as if the 'flash ocean icing' in Laptev could well have started.

Elsewhere Greenland (+7, +13K), the CAA (+10, +5K), and especially the Central Arctic (+25, +20K) all joined in the fun.

The only 'soft spot' was Baffin (+9, -16K), which showed a decrease.

Will post the charts when they have been updated.

MIA

[Aleman]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

ys

Masie has just updated her datasets, but has not lifted her skirts and shown us her graphs and maps yet!!!. 

However it is obvious that a large 'refreeze' has occurred.

Masie's  total sea ice extent of 5.967K Km2, that is an increase of (+357K Km2) in the last 3 days. 

As suggested the Russian coastline really led the attack.

Beaufort continued along filling in with (+11K and +15K), but Chukch(+27,+12K),  ESS (+19, +22K), Kara(+6,+11K), and finally Laptev (+6, +22K) provided a general front.  So it looks as if the 'flash ocean icing' in Laptev could well have started.

Elsewhere Greenland (+7, +13K), the CAA (+10, +5K), and especially the Central Arctic (+25, +20K) all joined in the fun.

The only 'soft spot' was Baffin (+9, -16K), which showed a decrease.

Will post the charts when they have been updated.

MIA

Large refreeze of patches away from the ice pack and coast. I believe we had this last year. The sea temperature has edged below 0C and lows running along the Siberian coast have dumped loads of snow all over. If lots of snow lands on sea at -1C and falling, it tends not to melt and initiates a freeze up on water that would have started freezing without snow in a few days anyway. The more snow, the more widespread and faster it freezes - a flash freeze as you say.

[Aleman]

A more widespread snow event has started on the US High Plains, with up to 18 inches predicted in parts over the next few days, and maybe 40 inches on mountains. Snow often starts up there this time of year but that's a fair old quantity predicted.

Https://mybighornbasin.com/bighorn-basin-to-be-smothered-by-one-foot-of-snow-this-week/

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by Aleman

[Northwest NI]

Iceland 11/10/21