September 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

The current EWP is around 25 mm and appears headed for only the low 30s now, which would mean that our lowest forecast (29 mm) from shillitocettwo would take top spot. On the CET front, he's at 17.0 there and can finish as high as first (CET 16.3 or higher), or as low as 20th (CET 15.8).

Everyone else already knows within one position where they are likely to finish in the CET as second highest forecast is 15.5 (syed2878) and it seems unlikely that September\s CET would drop below that. There are numerous predictions of 15.0 so outcomes around 15.9 to 16.1 can have a big impact on where shillitocettwo finishes. 

Also at stake would be best combined forecast, as shil could do as well as first in both, while I am somewhat more locked in to third or fourth CET and third EWP. I'll be quite happy to see a bold forecast do well. 

[Roger J Smith]

Just to maintain the continuity ...

17.1c to the 20th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

(2.5 above the 91 to 20 average)

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Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[Shillitocettwo]

On 20/09/2021 at 21:58, Roger J Smith said:

The current EWP is around 25 mm and appears headed for only the low 30s now, which would mean that our lowest forecast (29 mm) from shillitocettwo would take top spot. On the CET front, he's at 17.0 there and can finish as high as first (CET 16.3 or higher), or as low as 20th (CET 15.8).

Everyone else already knows within one position where they are likely to finish in the CET as second highest forecast is 15.5 (syed2878) and it seems unlikely that September\s CET would drop below that. There are numerous predictions of 15.0 so outcomes around 15.9 to 16.1 can have a big impact on where shillitocettwo finishes. 

Also at stake would be best combined forecast, as shil could do as well as first in both, while I am somewhat more locked in to third or fourth CET and third EWP. I'll be quite happy to see a bold forecast do well. 

   I'm surprised the CET is still at 17.0.C or so this late on. I dont expect much attrition to it this week, however the last 4 days if we get the Jet stream sending polar maritime air at us could clobber it and dump rain. I think the CET will hold above 16.0.C even with downward correction however how much above that is the real question. I could take 1st on both or be pushed well down depending on the last 4 days of September!

[Roger J Smith]

Regardless of what happens you had a pretty good idea about the type of month we would see. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 17C Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 21st

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.9C  +2.0C above normal. Rainfall 9.4mm 14.3% of the monthly average

Our warmest September on record is 2006 with 16.3C and is looking like that will be beaten WE are in third place in regards to rainfall behind 1959 with 1mm and 1986 with 6.4mm Fourth place is 2014 with 14.4mm in 10th place is 1979 with 23.1mm so a very good chance of a top ten driest entry.

Edited September 22, 2021 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

The current EWP end point is around 50 mm (currently 24 mm). This has to be qualified with considerable uncertainty as there's now a rather powerful low expected to form near the Irish Sea on the 28th-29th bringing considerably more rainfall to Ireland, so any changes in details could increase that outcome.

These developments will probably mute any colder turn next week and keep the average in the low 16s before corrections, so 15.8 to 16.2 looks to be the most likely finishing range for CET now. 

I won't post any EWP scores until we see what actually happens, but on 50.1 mm the scoring I see in my file changes the annual leader from snowray to feb91blizzard, probably any outcome below 65 mm would have that effect, and Reef would move up fairly close to second (that would drop back a bit for every mm above 50 as Reef said 49). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.8C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall now up to 9.6mm 14.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 22nd

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[Scorcher]

The CET may well hold steady from tomorrow until Monday and then will probably fall in the remaining 4 days of the month. It may well be touch and go whether we finish above 16C after corrections. I'd be shocked if it goes any lower than 15.9C now though. 

Looks to be a good chance that the final value will beat August now.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Scorcher

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP projection has fallen to 40 mm as the 28th-29th system is scaled back a bit, and this makes scoring fairly easy, only one forecast is below 40 mm (once again it's shillitocettwo). Agree with scorcher on the CET but the adjustment is anybody's guess, few frontal passages and mostly cloudy skies should mean a smaller than average adjustment though. Maybe 16.3 to 16.1? 

[Summer Sun]

16.8c to the 23rd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.7C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall 9.6mm 14.6% of average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.7C still +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 9.6mm 14.6% of average.

Using the local forecast this suggests finishing at 16.5C for us. However they tends to underestimate the temperature so I'll go for a 16.5 to 16.7C either way a new record for us.

[Summer Sun]

16.8c to the 24th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.8c to the 24th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

One of the warmest Septembers on record on the cards, and a dry one to boot, though rainfall totals will increase quite a bit in the new week which could bring totals closer to average for some. Here it has been exceptionally dry so far. Turning into a topsy turvy year CET wise, warmth and cold cancelling each other out.

 

[BruenSryan]

Wasn't sure where to post this but fun fact...

If this September comes out warmer than August for the CET, 2021 will join a very quirky exclusive club of years where April was colder than the preceding March and September warmer than the preceding August in the same calendar year. The only other year since 1659 that has happened was 1750. However, March 1750 was exceptionally mild (8.2C) rather than April being particularly cold (7.7C) relatively speaking.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.7C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Scorcher]

It's been a remarkably consistent month so far- 17 days above 20C here and today is likely to make that 18. Manchester Airport has only had 4 nights in single figures as well. That may change from tomorrow on but it's been notable how warm the mornings have been.

[Summer Sun]

16.9c to the 25th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

September often warmer than June.. statistically the case. The much higher minima reason why despite longest day on 21st June. Seems counter intuitive but soil temps and SSTs are at there highest in September whereas in June there is a long lag from the still chilly Spring condition.

October sees a rapid decrease in temps aided by the weakening sunshine and longer nights. 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

This September is warmer than the August. Doesn't happen very often.

[Scorcher]

18 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.9c to the 25th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

Great to see a rise so late in the month- quite something given we're at such a high figure already.

[Roger J Smith]

The current top values for highest minimum daily CET in September belong to 1949 (13.4 its coldest) and 2006 (13.0). Note those are mean daily temps, not monthly minima. So far the lowest mean daily provisional is 14.1. So it's now up to either this coming four days and/or final revisions to settle this record.