September 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[seaside 60]

15c

60mm

Please

[Mark Bayley]

14.3c please 

[Don]

I really haven't the foggiest but lets say 14.5C and 80mm.

[Kentish Man]

14.2c thanks

[February1978]

14.6c and 85mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries for September 2021

 

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order) _________________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order) ___________

17.0 _ 29.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 14 ) ___________________ 14.2 _ 68.6 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 12 ) _______

15.5 _ 65.0 _ syed2878 ( 23 ) _______________________ 14.2 _ 40.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 ) ________

15.3 _ 60.0 _ bobd29 ( 3 ) __________________________ 14.2 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 26 ) _____________

15.2 _ 42.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 29 ) ___________________ 14.2 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 53 ) _____________

15.1 _ 63.0 _ Ed Stone ( 62 ) _______________________ 14.2 _ 76.0 _ 1991-2020 average _____________

15.0 _ 60.0 _ The PIT ( 16 ) _________________________ 14.1 _ 89.0 _ Stationary Front ( 5 ) ____________ 

15.0 _103.0_ Emmett Garland ( 22 ) _______________ 14.1 _ ------ _ Leo97t ( 19 ) ____________________

15.0 _ 61.0 _ rwtwm ( 39 ) __________________________14.1 _ 90.0 _ summer blizzard ( 21 ) __________

15.0 _ 67.0 _ noname_weather ( 41 ) ______________ 14.1 _ 75.5 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 45 ) __________

15.0 _ 63.0 _ daniel* ( 48 ) _________________________ 14.1 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 49 ) _______________

15.0 _ 60.0 _ seaside60 ( 50 ) ______________________  14.0 _ 66.0 _ jonboy ( 34 ) ____________________

15.0 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( L2-1 ) ____________

14.9 _ 78.0 _ I Remember Atl 252 ( 27 ) ____________ 14.0 _ 93.0 _ weather-history ( 42 ) __________

14.9 _ 65.0 _ davehsug ( 46 ) _______________________14.0 _ 77.2 _ 1981-2010 average ______________

14.8 _ 65.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ( 4 ) ___________________ 13.9 _ 74.0 _ MrMaunder ( 36 ) _______________

14.8 _ 72.0 _ Weather26 ( 17 ) _____________________ 13.8 _ 80.0 _ Weather Enthusiast 91 ( 6 ) _____ 

14.8 _ 62.0 _ Captain Shortwave ( 31 ) _____________ 13.8 _ 76.0 _ NeilN ( 8 ) _______________________

14.8 _ 81.0 _ J10 ( 47 ) ______________________________13.8 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 13 ) _____________ 

14.7 _ 48.0 _ Reef ( 30 ) ____________________________ 13.8 _ 50.0 _ snowsummer ( 24 ) ______________

14.7 _ ------ _ Quicksilver 1989 ( 37 ) ________________ 13.8 _ 75.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 33 ) ___________________ 

14.6 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 28 ) _______________ 13.7 _ 55.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _______

14.6 _ 75.0 _ Mulzy ( 40 ) ___________________________ 13.7 _ 81.0 _ snowray ( 44 ) ___________________

14.6 _ 85.0 _ February1978 ( 54 ) __________________ 13.6 _ 68.0 _ Godber 1 ( 1 ) ___________________

14.6 _ 65.0 _ Frigid (late edit L3-1) _________________

14.5 _ 80.0 _ JeffC ( 9 ) _____________________________ 13.5 _ 61.2 _ Polar Gael ( 11 ) _________________

14.5 _ 92.0 _ summer18 ( 18 ) ______________________13.5 _ ------ _ Earthshine ( 38 ) _________________

14.5 _ 55.0 _ sundog ( 43 ) _________________________ 13.1 _ 45.0 _ Frigid ( 10 ) _edited 3rd Sep (14,6, 65)  

14.5 _ 80.0 _ Don ( 52 ) ____________________________ 12.8 _ 74.0 _ SteveB ( 2 ) ______________________ 

14.5 _ 66.5 _ consensus __________________________

14.4 _ 97.0 _ virtualsphere ( 7 ) ____________________

14.3 _ 46.0 _ summer8906 ( 20 ) ___________________

14.3 _ 49.0 _ stargazer ( 25 ) _______________________

14.3 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) ____________________

__________________________________________ _________________________________________

54 on-time forecasts, and one that is two days late, total 55. The consensus remains 14.4 C.

this changed to 53 on-time, one at two days late, one edit three days late, total still 55,

consensus now up to 14.5 C. 

==================================================================

EWP forecasts in order

103.0_EG ... 97.0_virt ... 93.0_wh-his ... 92.0_sum18 ... 90.0_SB ... 89.0_SF ... 85.0_Feb78 ... 81.0_snow, J10 ...

 80_we91, Jeff, Don ... 78.0_IRem ... 77.2_81-10 ... 76.0_91-20 ... 76.0_NN ... 75.5_MIA ... 75.0_DR(S), mul ...

 74.0_Ste, MrM ... 72.0_Wx26 ... 68.6_KW ... 68.0_godb ... 67.0_non ... 66.0_jon ... 65.0_Feb91, syed, dave, frig^

 63.0_EdS, dan ... 62_Capt ... 61.2_PG ... 61.0_rwtwm ... 60.0_bobd, PIT, sea ...  55.0_WWS, sun

 50.0_snowsum ... 49.0_star ... 48.0_Reef ... 46.0_sum8906 ...  42.7_RJS ... 40.0_DRL ... 29.0_shil

__________________________________

45 on-time forecasts consensus 67.0 mm

3 Sep this changed to 44 on time, one edit at three days late (^) consensus remains 67.0 mm.

===================================================================================

Forecasts posted after this will be into "one day late" time (0002h 1 Sep 2021)

 

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes 1772-2020

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max ____ min (records 1772-2020) ___ Extremes of daily running CET

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816) ________  21.8 (1780,1906) _ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816) ____________ 22.2 (1906) ______ 7.4 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908) _______21.4 (1906) ______ 7.6 (1816)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841) _____________20.2 (1906) ______ 7.9 (1816)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841) _____________19.3 (1906) ______ 8.2 (1816)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841) _____________19.0 (1906) ______ 8.4 (1816)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952) _____________19.0 (1906) ______ 9.1 (1816)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931) _______ 18.7 (1898,1906) __ 9.6 (1816)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912) _______ 18.5 (1898) _____ 10.0 (1816)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860) _____________18.2 (1898) _____ 10.3 (1816)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860) _____________ 18.1 (1865,1898) _ 10.4 (1816)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1816)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1816)

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.9 (1931)

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 _____ 20.1 (2020)* __ 7.9 (1986) ____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1807)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807) ______________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807) ______________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.5 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807) ______________ 17.9 (1865) _____ 10.3 (1807)

19 ___ 13.6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952) ______________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919) ______________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872) ______________ 17.5 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872) ______________ 17.2 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773) _____________ 17.1 (1865,2006) _10.3 (1807)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872) ______________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812) ______________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885) ______________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885) _________17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824) ______________ 17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

29 ___ 13.1 __ 14.1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918) ______________ 16.9 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808) ______________ 16.8 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

* previous record was 18.8 (1947, 2016) broken last year

==================================================

1991-2020 CET daily and cumulative values

01 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 __________ 11 ___ 14.9 __ 15.1 __________ 21 ___ 14.0 __ 14.6 __________

02 ___ 15.5 __ 15.3 __________ 12 ___ 14.6 __ 15.1 __________ 22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.5 __________

03 ___ 15.6 __ 15.4 __________ 13 ___ 14.3 __ 15.0 __________ 23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.5 __________

04 ___ 15.2 __ 15.4 __________ 14 ___ 14.1 __ 14.9 __________ 24 ___ 13.0 __ 14.4 __________

05 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 __________ 15 ___ 14.0 __ 14.9 __________ 25 ___ 13.0 __ 14.4 __________

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.3 __________ 16 ___ 13.8 __ 14.8 __________ 26 ___ 13.1 __ 14.3 __________

07 ___ 14.9 __ 15.3 __________ 17 ___ 13.5 __ 14.7 __________ 27 ___ 13.2 __ 14.3 __________

08 ___ 14.8 __ 15.2 __________ 18 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 __________ 28 ___ 13.5 __ 14.2 __________

09 ___ 14.8 __ 15.2 __________ 19 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 __________ 29 ___ 13.5 __ 14.2 __________

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.1 __________ 20 ___ 14.3 __ 14.6 __________ 30 ___ 13.1 __ 14.2 __________

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

14.4c to the 1st

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.4c on the 1st
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[Duncan McAlister]

15.0 please if it’s not too late

[Roger J Smith]

You're fine, the absolute deadline is Friday evening (midnight) so all day Friday still okay for anyone who forgot to enter. 

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 2nd

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3 c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

A major rise on the cards from tomorrow on. How high will it go? 

[Frigid]

On 22/08/2021 at 02:33, Frigid said:

13.1 and 45mm rain for me. Expecting the coolest September since 2015. 

Looking at the outlook it looks largely mild. Changing to 14.6C and 65mm

Edited September 3, 2021 by Frigid

[Dancerwithwings]

3 hours ago, Frigid said:

Looking at the outlook it looks largely mild. Changing to 14.6C and 65mm

It’s difficult enough to guess the outcome, but one thing I’ve learnt over the years...is never change ya first ...? C

[Roger J Smith]

I changed that one in the table of forecasts, hope that Frigid understands that he will take a three day late penalty on his scores, which is about equivalent to four rankings -- what that means is that your revision must improve your outcome by a little more than half the differential to maintain rank, for example in this case I think Frigid went up from nearly coldest forecast to about 20th warmest (out of about 55), so the outcome must be higher than 36th warmest to guarantee a better score, and from 37th warmest to the original forecast point, it's a guaranteed loss of points, albeit rather a small drop from 37th to about 41st. I think if you were convinced it had to be pointing towards mid 14 or warmer, this is a good change to make despite the penalty. I have never tried to keep track of the results of revised forecasts either before or after late penalty, but have the feeling it works out more often than not because people tend to abandon extreme warm or cold forecasts that seem to have little chance closer to the start of the month and a bigger sample of that month on view in the last model run. There was a month way back, I think Jan 2008, when a lot of people got caught out by model runs that were very cold looking right into the first of the month and suddenly that cold was yanked off the table and the month turned out very mild. That was probably the largest single average forecast error other than Dec 2015 which was just a case of most people underestimating a mild trend by 3-4 deg. 

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 3rd

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.3c on the 3rd
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has nothing to show yet, the ten-day GFS estimate is fairly dry too, with perhaps 10 mm by 14th. 

I didn't bother to look at the output for days 11-16 because Larry could probably go anywhere by about then, so would just say that the low total by 14th could perhaps change if Larry forces the issue, or could stay low if not. 

Final report on August EWP due after 0600h when they update the tables. 

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 4th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.5c on the 4th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.5c to the 4th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.5c on the 4th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

Up she goes.....

[LetItSnow!]

A very warm entrance to September, but certainly not a guarantee of a warm month. With the hurricane season wreaking havoc with reliability, who really knows what's going to happen. I'm personally buying a very warm September but you never know. Only last year were we looking at a warm September until the second-half of the month destroyed that. Further back, Sep. 1919 is an extreme example of a September of two halves. Hot first-half then extremely cold second-half, even with snow. Get yer snow boots ready, ya never know 

[Don]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

A very warm entrance to September, but certainly not a guarantee of a warm month. With the hurricane season wreaking havoc with reliability, who really knows what's going to happen. I'm personally buying a very warm September but you never know. Only last year were we looking at a warm September until the second-half of the month destroyed that. Further back, Sep. 1919 is an extreme example of a September of two halves. Hot first-half then extremely cold second-half, even with snow. Get yer snow boots ready, ya never know 

Well, I for one am hoping that September won't be very warm overall, but what will be will be......  And yes, September last year was generally warm until the final week when it turned much cooler, lowering the final CET to near average!

[LetItSnow!]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Well, I for one am hoping that September won't be very warm overall, but what will be will be......  And yes, September last year was generally warm until the final week when it turned much cooler, lowering the final CET to near average!

I actually meant to type not buying it, which I’ll have to edit. Haven’t seen latest model output yet though so we’ll see. I’m hoping for 2021s trend of cooler than average months to continue plus I’m ready for the comfort of chilly autumn mornings with mist and fog and the first frosts. Nonetheless, nature will do as she pleases. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.4C  -1.3C below normal. Rainfall 0mm 0% of the monthly average.

There's only one dry day so far this month but none of it measurable.

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 5th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.0c on the 5th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

[Earthshine]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.0c to the 5th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 16.0c on the 5th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st

Warm.