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September 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Roger J Smith
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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

CET averages and extremes

(all September mean CET 1981-2020 shown, warmest 13 in bold, middle 14 underlined, coolest 13 italic type). 

22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)

21.4 ... warmest day in second half (21st, 2006)

16.8 ... warmest September (2006)

16.6 ... second warmest (1729)

16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

16.0 ... fifth warmest (tied 1795, 2016)

15.7 ... seventh warmest (1760)

15.6 ... eighth warmest (tied with 1780) 1999

15.4 ... tenth warmest (1895)

15.2 ... 2005

15.1 ... 2011, 2014

14.9 ... 1998, 2004

14.7 ... 1989, 1991, 2000

14.6 ... 1985

14.5 ... 1981

14.4 ... 2002

14.3  ... average 2001-2020 and 2003, 2019

14.2 ... average 1991-2020, and 1982, 1997, 2009

14.1 ... (last occurrence 1964)

14.0 ... average 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 and 1821-1850 (!!)

13.9 ... 2020

13.8 ... 2007, 2010

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2013, 2018

13.6 ... average 1961-1990, 1987, 1996

13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000, 2008, 2017

13.4 ... 1992, 2001

13.35... average 1659-2020 (13.351 so it rounds to 13.4)

13.2 ... 1988, 1990

13.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 ..  2012

12.7 ... 1994

12.6 ... average 1659-1700, 2015

12.4 ... 1993

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied (with 1829) 14th coldest (1986)

11.2 ... tied twelfth coldest (1860, 1877)

11.1 ... tied tenth coldest (1840, 1912)

11.0 ... tied seventh coldest (1672, 1687, 1691)

10.7 ... coldest September since 1807 and sixth coldest (1952)

10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)

10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

 6.7 ... coldest days in first half (13th and 14th, 1807)

 4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

____________________________________________________________________

Enter by the end of Tuesday, 31 August without penalty, or with increasing late penalties to end of Friday, 3rd September.

(add your EWP forecast if you wish, to the CET entry) ...

============================================================================

 

EWP data 1766 to 2020 (Hadley)

 

189.8 mm __ wettest September 1766-2020 (1918)*

139.9 mm __ wettest September 1981-2020 in 1981 

102.0 mm __ wettest 30-year avg (1772-1801)

 81.0 mm ___ average all data 1766-2020

 77.2 mm __ average 1981-2010

 76.0 mm __ average 1991-2020

 58.4 mm __ lowest 30-year avg (1888-1917)

 16.4 mm __ driest September 1981-2020 in 2014.

  _8.0 mm __driest September 1766-2020 in 1959**

_________________________________________________

* 1797 and 1799 were almost as wet in the Hadley series at 185.4 mm and 186.8 mm.

** second driest in Hadley series since 1766 was 9.5 mm in 1865.

__________________________________________________

Recent EWP __ 2020 .. 54.6 ___ 2019 .. 124.0 __ 2018 .. 67.0 ___ 2017 .. 106.2 __ 2016 .. 72.0 ___ 2015 .. 62.7 ___

____ ____ ____ 2014 .. 16.4 _____ 2013 .. 61.8 ___ 2012 .. 92.8 ___ 2011 .. 57.0 ___ 2010 .. 86.9 ___ 2009 .. 34.0 ___

Enter the EWP contest on same deadlines as CET 

... good luck !! ... 

  • Thanks 2
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Godber 1 Contributor

Godber 1

Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
Posted

13.6c and 68mm please.

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SteveB Veteran

SteveB

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
Posted

12.8c and 74mm please

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Bobd29 Enthusiast

Bobd29

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
Posted

15.3C and 60mm for me please.

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Weather Enthusiast91 Accomplished

Weather Enthusiast91

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
Posted

13.8 and 80mm for me please. 

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Polar Gael Rising Star

Polar Gael

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
Posted

13.5°C and 61.2mm for me please. 

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

14.2C and 68.6mm please 

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Shillitocettwo Explorer

Shillitocettwo

Posted
Posted

   Here's a curveball for yall. 17.0.C and 29mm. Yes warmest September on record. What will be even weirder is it will largely be a result of a totally unforseen prolonged heatwave during the Second half of the month, with an African/Spanish plume pushing temperatures to several date records in the low 30.Cs by day and high teens by night with September's first ever tropical night over 20.C in places late month at that. Get ready for a freakish Indian Summer! 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

14.2*C and 40mm for me please. A dry start a possibility with the current High Pressure trying to hold on, although have a feeling it could be quite a dry month overall. A mix of cooler and warmer spells (though I must admit, an Indian-style Summer month during September with the CET of 17*C would personally be very interesting!)

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

I'll go for 15C and 60mm of rain

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Summer8906 Accomplished

Summer8906

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted (edited)

14.3 and 46mm please. Expect dry with average temps, warmer days, cooler nights (based on the 'poor summers tend to be followed by dry autumns' observation which seems to often be the case, together with relatively frequent cool weather this year)

Edited by Summer8906
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

14.1C, 0.1C below average. 90mm.

Generally cyclonic and westerly, no strong signal for anything other than near average.

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted

For September I'm going with 15.5C and 65MM rain.  Thanks.

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