Hurricane Henri

[matty40s]

Well he made it, spun off some very feisty weather across the US states and whipped up by the jetstream.

[karyo]

17 hours ago, matty40s said:

Well he made it, spun off some very feisty weather across the US states and whipped up by the jetstream.

The latest update from the NHC makes Henri a hurricane and most importantly takes him much closer to the northeast US. The GFS is even more excited than that with a landfall in the northeast!

The ECM on the other hand slowly dissipates the storm but it seems to be on its own.

[karyo]

The chances of Henri having direct impact to the northeast US have increased today. The NHC is playing catch up with the models and shifted the track further west.

[BrickFielder]

The wind shear hampering Henri's organization should relax later today, and as the storm passes over the Gulf Stream, forecasters anticipate Henri will become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

Certainly looks like Long Island direct hit now although could still be New York, Boston or even Philadelphia.  Regardless the storm surge for somewhere like Atlantic City looks like it could be quite bad. Think some of our experienced Tropical forecasters will be picking up on this soon.

 

 

 

 

Extracts from Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number  19

Quote

 

Satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen.

Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm later today through the weekend.  These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected into Saturday night.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

 

Extracts from Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A

Quote

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in southern New England.

 

 

 

[karyo]

Yes, the track has shifted westwards with every update. Regardless of intensity on landfall, Henri is expected to move very slowly over land so flooding could be major given also that the eastern states have seen a lot of rainfall recently.

[BrickFielder]

Hurricane Grace intensifying it cat 3 at the last minute before slamming Mexico shows how warm the waters are this year.

Hurricane Henri is thought to have speeded up and while convection has picked up significantly the organization of the eye is a little messy. Looks to me like it has exploded on its northern side with a new eye forming in the north west sector. If the eye is more closed in it would be my guess that the intensity will make a last minute surge like Grace. Greatest risk is the storm surge at the minute and flooding due to heavy rain and the forecast slowing as the storm moves inland.

[matty40s]

Heres a lovely Sunrise shot of Nantucket harbour today,...will be a different scene tommorow!!

[emmett garland]

But then again its the other REALM

[BrickFielder]

Looks like some enhanced convection in the South East quadrant. 

NHC Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23

Quote

The NOAA tail Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be forming.

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

On 21/08/2021 at 17:03, BrickFielder said:

Looks like some enhanced convection in the South East quadrant. 

NHC Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23

 

Gonna make a good attempt at Cat 2 methinks

[matty40s]

It's not got long left over the warm Gulf stream.

Good camera here....

https://www.livebeaches.com/webcams/nantucket-dreamland-harborview-webcam/

 

[Lauren]

Bearing in mind how much Sandy damaged NYC, could we be looking at similar here? Images of flooding already looking pretty terrible.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Not often you see a hurricane hit these parts! This will give NYC defences another big test. Some major rainfall to come out of this, maybe more than sandy. 

[Gowon]

Is this even a hurricane - I'm seeing wind gusts of 45mph inland and 67mph out to sea?

[matty40s]

6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Is this even a hurricane - I'm seeing wind gusts of 45mph inland and 67mph out to sea?

It's been downgraded to tropical storm, losing the Gulf Stream warmth sapped it quickly. It will still cause lots of problems though, especially the rainfall so soon after Fred

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

It's been downgraded to tropical storm, losing the Gulf Stream warmth sapped it quickly. It will still cause lots of problems though, especially the rainfall so soon after Fred

Thanks. I'm not downplaying the problem it'll cause with the amount of rainfall but let's not get carried away and call it a hurricane.

[matty40s]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Thanks. I'm not downplaying the problem it'll cause with the amount of rainfall but let's not get carried away and call it a hurricane.

It was, until it left the warming Gulf stream, now it isnt.

[Gowon]

25 minutes ago, matty40s said:

It was, until it left the warming Gulf stream, now it isnt.

That's my point 

[karyo]

Connecticut and Massachusetts will get many hours of heavy rainfall due to the slow movenent of Henri. Flooding is a certainty.

[matty40s]

 

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by matty40s

[matty40s]