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Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
On 13/08/2021 at 12:56, Azuremoon2 said:

No heatwave or plume on horizon, a very disappointing summer for us, one rumble of thunder heard in over a year now

I'm wondering whether Saturday night into Sunday might produce something more interesting for those of us in Cheshire. The weather fronts forecast for the weekend certainly seem to be much more active than those we have seen in the past few days, but the question is where will the fronts go?  

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Probably won't happen like this, but the theme continues of some possible interest for Sunday.

image.thumb.png.137b30311173e61beb759248300fa5c8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Models not really in agreement about convective risk tomorrow, but Satellite imagery suggests to me that it is possible.

 

satelite.thumb.png.8dec9bafa52860e86449f48f3fbfd1bc.png

 

The UKV model suggests some convective activity might be possible from Northern and Central Wales and perhaps up to Cumbria moving across the Country. 

nmmukprate.thumb.png.c5dd2d50fd0c9ee951e5e069048824e0.pngnmmukwind.thumb.png.8c48eb5f406185694d807af5fa573ce1.png

 

Upper Level dynamics confirmed by Satellite analysis suggest upper level low ,with some convective activity suggested on satellite imagery .

gfs_pvort_eur39.thumb.png.8d069c206ed61d0ccb65c4fff6629a62.png

Still looking marginal , but forecast jetstreak in the region makes this worth watching closely.

hgt300.thumb.png.1cc23312e475c4b715364cc7e79a84cf.png

Probably need a few more model runs to get a real grip on whether storm potential will materialize tomorrow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Some models show a Kent Clipper Saturday night. The Aperge stalls the low/associated cold front enough to keep a lot more of us in with a shout, but not much support for that elsewhere.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Still looks like there is a small window of storm possibility for Northern Wales through to  Hull area.  The area could stretch north to Cumbria or South to Central Midlands with perhaps a key area being somewhere like Manchester early afternoon. Perhaps some heavy showers from a low level wind convergence zone across the south west, perhaps getting to storm conditions as they drift across to London late afternoon.

gfs_el_eur15.thumb.png.04d013266086c7e103297d9b1f8c9ca8.pnggfs_pvort_eur15.thumb.png.65bb49f39fd6f13c56619fa0fc313a77.png

Not really convinced about cloud top heights as the window is small and the jet stream around the south of the upper low brings warmer air.

sound-WestMidlands-12.thumb.png.50f9fe93f788f7aefad4c09c739ba6ee.pngukcapeli.thumb.png.0bff5e19c373a1a2de1a6799913dc407.pngsatellite.thumb.png.7c4449da5d7e3c7fa9b1668fdd8185f8.png

Cloud cover and low surface temperatures will limit storm severity even though there is some low level wind shear and strong upper winds near to the jet streak.  Estofex forecast in agreement but has there storm area a bit far south.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

In 2022 can they just put “10% chance of storms, anywhere, at any particular time” and be done with it?

I really can’t believe the number of storm risk warnings I’ve seen this year considering I’ve only seen three actual storms, two of which being tiny and the other being one I had to drive to.

What is going on? Season is nearly over!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

WRF is very bullish with CAPE here for later this afternoon but I get the feeling the risk is already passed and I don’t think it’s projected 20°C temperatures will materialise, only 17.1°C now..

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
On 19/08/2021 at 13:22, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

In 2022 can they just put “10% chance of storms, anywhere, at any particular time” and be done with it?

I really can’t believe the number of storm risk warnings I’ve seen this year considering I’ve only seen three actual storms, two of which being tiny and the other being one I had to drive to.

What is going on? Season is nearly over!

Somewhere, someone's having a storm party. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Heavy showers around now. Up to  18.3°C.

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire

well today is the 21st thunderstorm warning of the year for my area, how many storms have we had so far? ZERO. Yep. 20 times in a row a storm warning came to absolutely nothing, again today, another storm warning, absolutely nothing. we even in the 30% today and still nothing. I think they should get rid of warnings now and just release them as and when radar suggests something is going to happen.

Absolutely pathetic to be wrong 20 times in a row.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
6 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

well today is the 21st thunderstorm warning of the year for my area, how many storms have we had so far? ZERO. Yep. 20 times in a row a storm warning came to absolutely nothing, again today, another storm warning, absolutely nothing. we even in the 30% today and still nothing. I think they should get rid of warnings now and just release them as and when radar suggests something is going to happen.

Absolutely pathetic to be wrong 20 times in a row.

Could be worse...  you could have had 2 tiny storms and one that you had to travel to

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
8 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

I think they should get rid of warnings now and just release them as and when radar suggests something is going to happen.

Isn’t that called Blitzortung?

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Could be worse...  you could have had 2 tiny storms and one that you had to travel to

we have had one rumble thunder in over a year

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8 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

we have had one rumble thunder in over a year

We have had no rumbles this year. Each time you see a warning just fire off to see the rain radar (you can add lightening strikes) which is brilliant. I prefer them being really far away than just missing us by 10 to 15 miles which seems to be the case and you cant really chase them as they are moving. The static storms in London were really annoying as they were moving at about 4 mph in our direction but were too far away to get to us. Not sure whether it has something to do with the chitern hills but we really dont seem to get much at all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

1st strike near Shrewsbury.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Now also east of Wrexham

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Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

Some heavy stuff just passed to my SW ... a couple of lightning strikes have shown up on the Met Office observations. 

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Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire

21st storm warning of this summer for my area, and still not a single storm. 30% chance of thunderstorms and hail today, heavy rain forecast.....didnt even get a single drop of rain. Its incredible how bad the forecasts are. Ridiculously bad. 

TWENTY ONE storm warnings this year, and we have had one distant rumble of thunder since August last year. Pathetic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

You are all taking warnings and computer-generated forecasts too literally.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
28 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

What do you suggest when its forecast outlook is only looking three hours ahead not days or tomorrow?

UKWW not even turning to look today, so I’m not expecting anything. maybe a shower

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Forward speed of the low pressure bringing rain on Saturday means any Storm threat that was forecasted for Sunday moves to Saturday afternoon and will most likely be limited to the south West, Wales and the Midlands.  

gfs_el_eur42.thumb.png.0f2908cf8624d7466430963854c30c15.png

Looks like there might be two bands of upper air vorticity which could trigger convection, but low level wind convergence below these seems to be the forecast trigger.  Possible convective line developing at the rear of the front or just behind it followed by a further band of storms.  These could trundle right across to the east of the country later on.

gfs_pvort_eur39.thumb.png.2bfcc113a3191d4b225621ebd64567fc.pnggfs_pvort_eur42.thumb.png.c4e56ea707c71168e78700e9d8022a96.png

Will probably get a clearer picture tomorrow but Eumetsat satellite imagery is consistent with the forecasts and shows convection in areas consitent with there being a storm threat tomorrow.

nmmuk3hrprecip15.thumb.png.b8224ddc47d6aa2e93cbc16205b9514a.pngnmmuk3hrprecip18.thumb.png.9127898ed43063aaa9b32b0034f58bf4.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

The Met Office have accordingly issued a thunderstorm warning for tomorrow.

 

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WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

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