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Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 hour ago, matty40s said:

    Screenshot_20210806-080542_Chrome.thumb.jpg.27dc76cbc31b417505db48c1e7c6c118.jpg

    We cancelled a kids mini camping festival over the weekend as the forecast was that bad, (and on Friday was showing rain every hour on Saturday!!). It lightly rained once, only Sunday has been consistently heavy showers. ....

    But no thunder at all

    Kids would have enjoyed it rain or shine. I'm sorry that you cancelled.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    2 hours ago, Azuremoon2 said:

    something is seriously wrong now...today was the 20th separate thunderstorm warning this summer for my town.....and none of the 20 warnings have brought a storm..in fact we have had 1 rumble of thunder since last August......how can they be so wrong all the time?

    I don't even bother taking any notice of warnings for thunder storms anymore. Its just a broad brush stroke that doesn't take in to account local topography. 

    Here in Weston-super-Mare we miss 95% of the storms, but only 10-15 miles East, South or North get all the action, and we get nothing, but still end up in the warnings. 

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

    Kids would have enjoyed it rain or shine. I'm sorry that you cancelled.

    It was more the wind and lightning risk....we had a big single storm last year, which had the kids dancing in a monsoon, but an all day rain and wind with no let up for 2 days forecast pulled it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan

    Budapest live webcam.... Earthcam ,    bit of lightning show starting up there for the storm starved 

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton
    1 hour ago, SteveB said:

    I don't even bother taking any notice of warnings for thunder storms anymore. Its just a broad brush stroke that doesn't take in to account local topography. 

    Here in Weston-super-Mare we miss 95% of the storms, but only 10-15 miles East, South or North get all the action, and we get nothing, but still end up in the warnings. 

    Yea I give up now too... Just frustrating when there are severe weather warnings for this area and it turns out to be a glorious sunny day with barely a cloud. It happens time and time again and the amount of times plans are cancelled because of the forecasted bad weather which never materialises. Just frustrating how the models can be so wrong up here. 

    It does seem this year its the same areas getting storms over and over again. Mainly Lincolnshire, London, East Scotland and Kent. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Day 1 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 09 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 10 Aug 2021

    ISSUED 07:20 UTC Mon 09 Aug 2021

    ISSUED BY: Chris

    A large trough of low pressure will extend southwards across much of Britain and Ireland and will slowly rotate eastwards through Monday. This combined with modest instability will lead to widespread showers and some thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and early evening. 

    Around 500 J/kg of CAPE will develop through the afternoon across much of Britain and Ireland, but particularly across the three SLGT areas. ELTs and therefore colder cloud tops will be marginally better in the Irish and Scottish SLGT areas, which are deeper into the upper trough, however mid-level lapse rates will be slightly steeper in the southern SLGT area. Shear is quite weak across Britain and Ireland, so convection is likely to be messy during the day, however with some weak surface convergence and orography that should be enough to give initial lift to parcels to help kick off convection, especially during the afternoon.  

    The main hazards will be localised flooding, particularly with slow-moving thunderstorms across parts of Scotland where 25-50mm of rain could fall in a short space of time. 

    http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-08-09

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    Last chance today for convective/thundery weather. From tomorrow onwards things are looking very boring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton
    3 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Last chance today for convective/thundery weather. From tomorrow onwards things are looking very boring.

    Last chance? London has already had one of the most thundery summers on record 

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex

    Some very heavy rain showers this morning but still no thunder!

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    16 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

    Last chance? London has already had one of the most thundery summers on record 

    Yes last chance, the rest of the week has nothing thundery to offer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    15 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    Probably down to being too far west in these Maritime W-E setups. Typically diurnal driven storms need a decent, uninterrupted land track/fetch over time to get to a decent maturing stage, hence most electrification taking place in counties such as Lincs, E/N Yorks, E Anglia and Kent.

    A South/Southeast or even an Easterly with warmth and instability suits your location far better, as the opposite from above occurs. Last year I was having to chase into the Midlands to get the best out of the storms, and would’ve been even better placed if I drove to places such as Stoke and beyond. Over in Norfolk, we was the breeding ground at best on an easterly, straight off the North Sea, and to get anything decent, we would be reliant on the odd rogue import out of Belgium/Netherlands which never normally made it across the chilly N sea. A few on rare occasions have though. 

    This is the crux of the matter; I know all too well from living on the west coast for most of my life. Before yesterday though there was a bit of a land fetch over Wales which didn’t seem to help even though on the 28th of July storms seemed to develop regardless whether they were over sea or land but I think that was due to the very low t500s.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    I wouldn’t get too hung up over warnings; they are just covering a potential outcome no matter how unlikely it is. Best to stick to the forecasts on here from the likes of Convective Weather, Nick F and the folks at UKWW and combine that with local knowledge model data and nowcasting. Also take note of the winds at surface and steering height because they play a massive role especially in NW England.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    29 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

    This is the crux of the matter; I know all too well from living on the west coast for most of my life. Before yesterday though there was a bit of a land fetch over Wales which didn’t seem to help even though on the 28th of July storms seemed to develop regardless whether they were over sea or land but I think that was due to the very low t500s.

    Would’ve definitely helped things. The temperatures aloft were very low on that day! The levels of shear would’ve also helped things too. 

    Just as I’m speaking, I’m sure I just heard a rumble from that heavy shower approaching Ely!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    So are we all excited then. I am sure you have seen the Fax chart and picked up on the Estofex Forecast.

    Quote

     

    Issued: Sun 08 Aug 2021 20:52
    Forecaster: TUSCHY

    What a forecast to talk about. 

    The first one is an upper low, which cuts off from the westerlies and creeps SE over the open NE Atlantic. The upper low offers an impressive negative geopotential height anomaly and so is the anomaly of the evolving LL depression, which features a transient shallow warm seclusion structure (with mixed signals in latest cyclone phase diagrams). This is a -4 to -5 sigma event regarding climatology for MSLP and probably around the climate extreme of the Mclimate (CFSR).

    Estofex.

     

    It is not obvious that a warm seclusion is really a 5 sigma event ( Extremely unusual) since many low pressure systems heading towards the UK go down this route. Let us take a step back and I will talk about cyclone types and transitions, well a very simplistic view ( somebody with better knowledge can perhaps run with this). Tropical storms tend to have warm cores and little frontal development whilst extra tropical (our neck of the woods) cyclones tend to have a cold core and have well developed frontal structures. Most tropical storms move North (Northern hemisphere) and transition from warm core to cold core. Occasionally a cyclone once transitioned will redevelop a sort of warm core or warm seclusion. These hybrid storms are usually abnormally low in pressure , can lead to sting jets and have tilt such that there is significant thunderstorm risks.

    Warm seclusions are also associated with some of the worst hurricanes where warm seclusion causes a rebuild and intensification of a hurricane. No we should not be expecting a hurricane or even a sting jet but this is early for this type of storm and the particular development may be driven by warm sea temperatures rather than cyclone history. It does mean we are stuck again in a blocked pattern instead of a mobile pattern and perhaps the demise of UK Thunderstorms is part of the pattern.

    May be somebody with better knowledge of cyclone cores and transitions will chip in here to explain why this particular environment is deviating from the normal so far that it might be considered a 5 sigma event.
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yes, this unsettled, showery spell since Friday has been surprisingly low in thundery activity considering how widespread the thunder often was from similar setups in May and July.  There have been some exceptions though, in particular it seems that the Glasgow area has had quite a few thunderstorms recently, including some sferics across the north of Glasgow today.  It makes a change as statistically Glasgow tends not to get that many on average.  North Norfolk also seems to have had quite a few.

    From a local perspective I had a dose of reality as it seemed that in May, June and July, Lincoln got a thunderstorm almost every time thunderstorms featured in the forecast.  I got a reminder that it isn't the norm for this to happen even in the more thunder-prone regions of the UK, and the run was bound to come to an end at some stage.  So I can't really complain about not getting any this time round.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy!
  • Location: Lincolnshire Coast

    Afternoon 

    Just had a small storm just to the Sth of Cleethorpes,  some decent rumbles. Seems to be picking up as it heads out into the Nth Sea if the Lightning detector is anything to go by. Seems to be alot more muggy now it's passed with the wet concrete in the garden from the downpour is drying already.

    Cheers

    Glenn

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
    49 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Yes, this unsettled, showery spell since Friday has been surprisingly low in thundery activity considering how widespread the thunder often was from similar setups in May and July.  There have been some exceptions though, in particular it seems that the Glasgow area has had quite a few thunderstorms recently, including some sferics across the north of Glasgow today.  It makes a change as statistically Glasgow tends not to get that many on average.  North Norfolk also seems to have had quite a few.

    From a local perspective I had a dose of reality as it seemed that in May, June and July, Lincoln got a thunderstorm almost every time thunderstorms featured in the forecast.  I got a reminder that it isn't the norm for this to happen even in the more thunder-prone regions of the UK, and the run was bound to come to an end at some stage.  So I can't really complain about not getting any this time round.

    Only thing I can add to that me being just east of Glasgow here last few days certainry had the rumbles but not much in the way of actual storms overhead today is much wetter tho with some torrential rain at times

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    Posted
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire
  • Location: Bromsgrove, Worcestershire

    Well that was a surprise lightning strike here in Bromsgrove on our doorstep a few streets away... scared the living poo out of our cats & they scattered in all directions 🤣🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    The line that’s produced a few strikes in SW London looks tasty as it goes past. No thunder heard though sadly.

    26CE67BB-7D6E-461E-B16A-FC68A52CAB09.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Surrey
    13 minutes ago, Harry said:

    The line that’s produced a few strikes in SW London looks tasty as it goes past. No thunder heard though sadly.

    26CE67BB-7D6E-461E-B16A-FC68A52CAB09.jpeg

    It was intense! No wonder people have been flooded by these downpours! Never had such intense rain for such a long period of time... Finally stopped here

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Can see the cell over Wells from here, through the gunk of lower cloud.

     

    FACC3B28-0FDA-476D-922B-BEC193B7564A.jpeg

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