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Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    2nd attempt

    Convective Outlook - Tuesday 27th July 2021

    Issued Monday 26th July 2021

    Valid 10:00 BST to 23:00 BST Tuesday 27th July 

    Headline 

    High Risk of a very showery day across many Central & Northern parts of the UK.  Low to moderate risk of Surface Based Thunderstorms developing across parts of Wales, Central England, Midlands, Northern England, inland parts of Scotland. 

    General Situation 

    Broad Upper trough will cover the UK, Areas of High Positive Vorticity (spin) will move NE across the UK during the day.   Fairly Slack surface pressure covers the UK with convergence zones expected to develop across parts of Wales, West Midlands, Northern England, SW Scotland,  Central Scotland during the day and propagate slowly NE Wards during the afternoon.  During the evening a rearward sloping active shortwave 500/300mb upper trough will increase ascent across Wales, SW Scotland Northern England.   This will come with increased SE Shear and increased Vorticity.   Thunderstorms may linger well into the evening and will continue to produce significant threat of torrential Rain and increasing threat of Hail. 

    Detail 

    Broad upper trough will cover the UK during the next 2 days.  A broken occlusion moving into Ireland & SW England overnight into Tuesday will mean that Tuesday starts with frequent showers and isolated thunder across Ireland, SW Wales, SW England and the Channel Islands.   A Drier start across Central & Northern Parts.   During the day as the occlusion moves NE it will decay and break down, but as the upper 300-500mb trough gains more potency to the North and daytime heating occurs we can expect convection to fairly rapidly develop.  

    The Surface Pressure pattern will be quite slack inside this broad trough with surface convergence zones developing during the late morning and into the afternoon especially across Wales, Northern England, parts of the Midlands, Northern Ireland and a broad one stretching from the Pennines to Southern Uplands into the Highlands.   Thunderstorms will break out given the steepening low to mid level lapse rates . During the Afternoon a weak surface low is expected to develop over parts of N England with Light Easterly winds across NE England,  West to NW Winds into NW England and SW Winds converging into the Midlands.  A light Easterly into Eastern Scotland will meet a converging westerly wind across parts of W Scotland.  

    Thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon becoming quite heavy in places.  Models suggest a fairly high moisture content will remain in place so storms may not be hugely electrical but do offer the scope for significant downpours and leading to some torrential rainfall rates in places.    Risk of Hail increases later in the day in places too.  Storms will also be aided by topographical uplift across the Pennines and Uplands and Highlands of Scotland. 

    During the evening an active rearward sloping upper trough with significant 500mb Positive Vorticity and increased Vertical ascent will move into N Ireland and DLS will increase across SW Scotland then into Central Scotland. This increase in synoptic scale energy and forcing combined with a further steepening of Mid level lapse rates as 300-600mb temperatures cool further will allow for Heavy Showers and Thunderstorms to persist well into the evening across Scotland. 

    Suggest 30-50mm could occur in places where persistent convergence develops and isolated higher amounts in places.   Main Difference to Sunday is the Convergence zone is likely to propagate or move during the day therefore the very large amounts which were registered across parts of London and East Anglia should not be repeated.  However torrential downpours could produce some local issues. 

    Primary Risks - Heavy , possibly torrential rain in places, Hail, C/G Lightning and local flooding.    

    Fig 1 - GFS 500mb flow and vorticity showing the main upper trough over the UK and a rearward sloping shortwave and focussed vorticity on its ascending side 

    Fig 2 - EURO4 - Convergence zones which highlight multiple areas from Midlands north to Scotland.  

    Paul Blight 

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    midlands Northwards looks more favoured tomorrow and seems to get better as day goes on , may explain why no met office warning for south issued

    Edited by Gordon Webb
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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Do you have bad WiFi or something, never gone of here even from big storms except the one time I wasn't home for an import(although I did still get it) 

    Wifi never has been good here, always seeing open reach vans everywhere around here and has a mind of its own. One day there won’t be any problems then the next it will constantly disconnect

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
    16 minutes ago, Ciderwithrosie said:

    Yes i thought it's heading your way, cells  like that head to Yeovil. 

    If the plume was out the front of the house then I would have given it a chance . That much I have learned lol . 

    Is the one you photo earlier got any bigger 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill
  • Location: Bexhill
    18 hours ago, TN9 said:

    Well I'm here again (st Leonards )  ,and too be honest not much has happened so the locals say ,not much from where I come from either ,but in-between well ,flooding ,roads closed ,fire engines pumping water ,all between me and you ,lol 🤣

    1627246269598910995595522601332.jpg

    Hah we must be doing something wrong! Have you been doing the storm dances correctly? Your view point looks much better than my dash up galley hill in the rain 😂.. hey next time you head this way pick up the weather on route ⛈⚡

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France

    Very electrically active storm centred over Wincanton. Grown from nothing in about 30 minutes exactly on the convergence zone

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset

    Tried to take another photo but tablet playing up . Yes the head of it has shot up in the last few minutes . 

    That was in rep,y to Camturbo. 

    Edited by Ciderwithrosie
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

    Wifi never has been good here, always seeing open reach vans everywhere around here and has a mind of its own. One day there won’t be any problems then the next it will constantly disconnect

    Same here! Hardly the best advert for buying BT, is it?🩲

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Unbelievable the line of storms near Shaftesbury moving exactly 180degrees on the opposite direction to Saturday 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    Good thunderstorm here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
    18 minutes ago, Ciderwithrosie said:

    Tried to take another photo but tablet playing up . Yes the head of it has shot up in the last few minutes . 

    That was in rep,y to Camturbo. 

    Will see wot happens

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill
  • Location: Bexhill

    Now I’ve had my daily dose of the fun I’m about to miss whilst sitting inside melting I’m going to go sit outside and burn instead (this is the closest to thunder down here.. . a g(rumble))sorry I have to amuse myself  😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 minutes ago, mike5900 said:

    Good thunderstorm here. 

    Look lovely! Would chase it but gotta cook bloody dinner for the kids! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    On 26/07/2021 at 17:07, Alderc said:

    Look lovely! Would chase it but gotta cook bloody dinner for the kids! 

    I'm sure a quick fix-up of toast could work as dinner and then you can chase 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Portishead, North Somerset

     

    Latest pic of that cell in SE Wales.

    IMG_2350.thumb.jpg.1175d1a3523614185fdd4d26ea475413.jpg

    And something brewing in the other direction, on the Somerset/Wiltshire border.

    IMG_2352.thumb.jpg.80f3eda5874e6a4caf4efd1f58c9ee4b.jpg

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coopers Edge, Gloucester
  • Location: Coopers Edge, Gloucester

    Feels a lot more oppressive today in Gloucester. Hoping the cells to my west keep together 🤞 feeling seriously storm (and rain) starved 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    Storm after storm here

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool
  • Location: Pontypool
    26 minutes ago, dr weather said:

     

    Latest pic of that cell in SE Wales.

    IMG_2350.thumb.jpg.1175d1a3523614185fdd4d26ea475413.jpg

    And something brewing in the other direction, on the Somerset/Wiltshire border.

    IMG_2352.thumb.jpg.80f3eda5874e6a4caf4efd1f58c9ee4b.jpg

     

     

     

    9F33006A-73D7-4298-B8A2-7AFD96DF569B.jpeg

    CA715EAF-F1E2-413D-B5C4-CB0FD27CFDFE.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    None stop rumbles. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    Hail now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Looks like storms are forecast for us tomorrow morning, interesting to see if it plays out

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

    Rumbles after rumbles here not raining here but someones copping it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    Horrendous rain flooding very likely. 

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Very good and encouraging pictures coming in from Wales and parts of the SW. cracking convection. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

    Lightning every few seconds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    3hr totals already near 100mm now near Yeovil must be some huge flash flooding. 

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