Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Dorsetbred]

On 10/10/2021 at 14:47, Eagle Eye said:

Now that storm season is most likely over here's the best of it including some previously unseen material because I forgot to add it before 

Ah the joys of living in the storm zone, the SE of the UK is now very much an area for the storm chasers to enjoy, whilst others it has very much fallen away in to nothing. Certainly the case down here, when we would always get many summer thunderstorms particularly at night, now, they are very few and far between..

[Eagle Eye]

Not exactly a storm but a CB dropped these today it was amazing watching them swirl around for ages missed most of my lunch because of that though, it was definitely worth it

[Supacell]

Possibly some interest for Tuesday night and into Wednesday this week as an area of low pressure moves through the UK. Ahead of it will be some very warm, humid air along with an area of instability and some deep layer shear. 

A lot of time for it to change and details will need to be ironed out closer to the date, but worth keeping an eye on I think.

[Frosty hollows]

3 hours ago, Supacell said:

Possibly some interest for Tuesday night and into Wednesday this week as an area of low pressure moves through the UK. Ahead of it will be some very warm, humid air along with an area of instability and some deep layer shear. 

A lot of time for it to change and details will need to be ironed out closer to the date, but worth keeping an eye on I think.

The met office have been forecasting thundery weather for my area on Wednesday since the end of last week. Rarely see them forecast so far out

[Chris Lea-Alex]

3 hours ago, Supacell said:

Possibly some interest for Tuesday night and into Wednesday this week as an area of low pressure moves through the UK. Ahead of it will be some very warm, humid air along with an area of instability and some deep layer shear. 

A lot of time for it to change and details will need to be ironed out closer to the date, but worth keeping an eye on I think.

You had me at deep layer shear!

[Jamie M]

Estofex back with a messy map and an outlook:

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Oct 2021 06:00 to Wed 20 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Oct 2021 20:00
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland, UK and NW France mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A strong WAA currently taking place in western Europe, east of a deep Atlantic low which has created an impressive WCB. The associated atmospheric river that brings subtropical air in high latitudes up to N UK, will be the hosting environment of a few storms. A high-CAPE-low-shear set up in Ireland, W UK and NW France may result in a few damaging convective wind gusts. In addition, heavy rain is also expected, but most of it non-convective.
Lower geopotentials can be found in eastern Europe and Asia Minor, where a few short-wave troughs will act as the lifting mechanisms of locally unstable air masses, mostly close to Tunisia, Gulf of Mersin and eastern Black Sea, but these storms should remain non-severe.

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone

I wasn’t expecting to be posting in this thread today! But the U.K. Meto have just posted a yellow thunderstorm warning from 04:00 till midday tomorrow! ?⛈

Personally I think we might see something within the highlighted area… But I won’t hold my breath.

Either way… Still nice to see, especially in October! ?⛈

[Mapantz]

The warning is on the lowest point of their warning matrix. Coupled with their dreadful and over-zealous thunderstorm warnings in the past, I will ignore it.

The risk of high rainfall totals outweighs the thunderstorm risk, but there you go..

[Chris Lea-Alex]

So if I combine Dan's slight with Estofex's 1, and Met Office's yellow, we have an agreeance of South and Mid Wales and Exmoor. Good luck to those in with a convective sniff

 

Edited October 19, 2021 by Chris Lea-Alex

[Tn9]

On 19/10/2021 at 11:54, Mapantz said:

The warning is on the lowest point of their warning matrix. Coupled with their dreadful and over-zealous thunderstorm warnings in the past, I will ignore it.

The risk of high rainfall totals outweighs the thunderstorm risk, but there you go..

Love the way it cuts the south east right out , slap round the chops as usual

Edited October 19, 2021 by TN9

[Ben Sainsbury]

Potentially will be out chasing tomorrow if all conditions come together, a good post on UKWW explaining tomorrow's outlook!

[Eagle Eye]

On 19/10/2021 at 19:27, Ben Sainsbury said:

Potentially will be out chasing tomorrow if all conditions come together, a good post on UKWW explaining tomorrow's outlook!

Came up on me all of a sudden wish I wasn't in the south east for the first time this year

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Potentially will be out chasing tomorrow if all conditions come together, a good post on UKWW explaining tomorrow's outlook!

Is your vehicle supersonic!? The showers/storms will be moving very quickly!

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Is your vehicle supersonic!? The showers/storms will be moving very quickly!

Haha! We'll I better get in position quickly then, bit like US style!

[Eagle Eye]

On 19/10/2021 at 20:39, Ben Sainsbury said:

Haha! We'll I better get in position quickly then, bit like US style!

Will you point at a scud Reed style, in which case I need to see that? 

[Ben Sainsbury]

21 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Will you point at a scud Reed style, in which case I need to see that? 

If the moment is right then you never know

[Mapantz]

I think the main risk of electrical activity will stay out in the channel tomorrow evening/night. Strong DLS scraping southern counties, so the possibility of funnels/spouts etc. Rain and squally winds likely to be the main factor.

Just to add to that; I actually think the SE is more likely to get some thunder, late tomorrow night, in to the early hours.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Mapantz

[Argyle10]

Wow that was one storm

 

[Supacell]

Certainly is kicking off across the SW of England and South Wales. I have just headed out but not got far yet. Currently near Derby. Storms will be moving very fast today so I need to be positioned ahead of them. It will not be possible to catch them up.

[Guest]

Nice bowing element on the showery activity moving through east Devon and into Dorset. 

 

 

 

 

[SteveB]

Nice storm on the way in to work,  flashes of lightning every 5 mins or so, very heavy rain in the squall line too.

Edited October 20, 2021 by SteveB

[MP-R]

Nice wake up call this morning as SteveB alludes to. I’d say for a short time it was on flash every minute then torrential rain. Thunder sounded quite elevated.

[Eagle Eye]

Definitly a good day for those storm lovers in the southwest wasnt expecting much anywhere I'll be honest originally but I'm changing that now, is it really October? 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Still not entirely sure what my move is going to be today, probably will head to a good vantage point for this squall across CS England then possibly head a touch further north but still undecided. That break in the squall line has my eye on it.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Ben Sainsbury

[Daz Baker]

Thought I seen lightning around 6 this morning, Around 6.30 it hammered down and my department at work flooded due to poor structural and drainage, Has passed now probably it for here today.