Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Jamie M]

Sharp nasty shower earlier with this beautiful structure to it just before it hit. I do like these showery days because you tend to get some good structures here on the coast especially if they cross the sea from Sheppey.

[mike57]

Just had a hefty shower and 4 rumbles of thunder.

[Nick F]

Evening, looks interesting tonight for southern areas, as a sharpening upper trough moves in from the west and causes strong ascent, low level SWly jet ahead of this trough likely to induce a convective squall line that will move across S England early hours. 

Strong vertical shear (deep layer and low level) and storm-relative helicity at midnight across the south suggests a tornado threat if there's sufficient low level instability:

Strong low-level jet forecast by GFS at 925mb, strong convective gusts forecast for southern England.

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 4TH/TUES 5TH OCT 2021

Issued 2021-10-04 16:31:22
Valid: 04/10/2021 1700 - 05/10/2021 1200

Forecast Details

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING:

Localised damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph

Isolated tornadoes

Localised flash-flooding

C-G lightning

Discussion

Upper trough moving in from the west will sharpen as it moves across the British Isles over the next 12 hours, eventually disrupting into a cut off low as it moves east of the UK on Tuesday. As this occurs, surface low over Ireland Monday evening will deepen in the left exit of a strong jet streak on the rear side of the trough as the low moves east across England during Tuesday morning. Ahead of this deepening low, increasing large scale ascent of moist airmass and cooling aloft ahead of approaching sharpening upper trough will be marked by a band of increasingly heavy rain with embedded strong convection, with potential to produce localised severe weather, which will move east across England and Wales tonight before clearing E into the North Sea by mid-Tuesday morning.

Ongoing scattered heavy showers moving NE across England and Wales will continue to produce isolated lightning strikes into the evening. Then, the aforementioned band of heavy rainfall, some of it convectively driven, will spread east across Wales/SW England/Midlands this evening, before spreading further E across the rest of England in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Tongue of moist air lifted along occluding cold front and by forced ascent of sharpening upper trough moving E across southern Britain overnight is forecast to produce strong squall line convection that will shift E, driven by a strong low level SWly jet. The strong winds in the low-level jet may be brought to the surface in downdrafts within the squall line convection, leading to a localised risk of damaging wind gusts (50-60mph). Where breaks occur in the line convection, there is also potential, given strong storm-relative helicity and low-level shear forecast, for an isolated tornado. Localised flash-flooding is also likely from intense convective rainfall. Lightning is possible with the squall line and heavy showers ahead and behind it, greatest risk of lightning in SW and southern coastal areas.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Eagle Eye]

Looks interesting tonight 

[Eagle Eye]

Lightning

Edited October 4, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[LightningLover]

Just had a surprise batch of storms in the channel that were close enough to produce some bright flashes and occasional distant peels of thunder

[Eagle Eye]

Decent pictures here

[matty40s]

On 04/10/2021 at 21:07, Eagle Eye said:

Decent pictures here

That looks like Crick DIRFT from about 10 miles away every night.

[Jamie M]

Love some distant lightning in October.

[Callie]

A few distant flashes of lightning earlier over the far eastern side of East Sussex

[Dreckly]

This just knocked the satellite out, torrential

 

[Mapantz]

On 04/10/2021 at 22:03, Dreckly said:

This just knocked the satellite out, torrential

Had that occur on Saturday as well. I was watching an old version of strike it lucky at the time!

[Eagle Eye]

Decent lightning here from earlier

 

[Storm_Sikher]

Something to watch on a Monday night, A distant storm in the North sea lighting up, I estimate it to be around 45 miles from me.
 

[Mapantz]

There's some knarley rain rates embedded in there..

A weather station in Newton Poppleford recorded 188 mm/hr. 

[Frosty hollows]

Wind is really picking up here ahead of the rain

[Hirudine]

Having some incredibly intense rainfall and strong winds these past 10-15 minutes in Birmingham city centre as this line passes through. The poor roadies trying to load up the lorries after a gig are drenched to the bone.

[Mapantz]

Well that was completely underwhelming! No torrential rain, and a few wind gusts just over 30mph.  

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Not so often a depression has such a visible centre just from rainfall radar patterns, but this is today's little feature:

Quite impressive I thought.

 

[mike57]

1 hour ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

Not so often a depression has such a visible centre just from rainfall radar patterns, but this is today's little feature:

Quite impressive I thought.

 

Looks like there have been a couple of lightning strikes around the Durham area, in that rain band running up towards Newcastle.

Looks to be moving South - South East now

[Windblade]

Textbook cb an hour ago at Crayford. Came over and dumped a load of rain. No thunder of course, but that's par for the course around these parts 

[A Face like Thunder]

Quite serious flooding in parts of Newcastle, Gateshead, South Shields and Sunderland, with over 40mm of rain falling.

[Eagle Eye]

Now that storm season is most likely over here's the best of it including some previously unseen material because I forgot to add it before 

Haven't shown this, possible wall cloud before that 2am score in June

 

[Mapantz]

On 10/10/2021 at 14:47, Eagle Eye said:

Now that storm season is most likely over

Did it ever start?

These days, I'm more likely to hear thunder in winter, rather than summer.

[Eagle Eye]

On 10/10/2021 at 15:43, Mapantz said:

Did it ever start?

These days, I'm more likely to hear thunder in winter, rather than summer.

Lol to be fair your probably right there