Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[TJS1998Tom]

Would be nice if this happened, especially with nights getting darker earlier now

 

[Turquoise]

3 hours ago, dr weather said:

The Met Office have accordingly issued a thunderstorm warning for tomorrow.

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

I wouldnt bank on it, they have been wrong 21 times in a row in my area.

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, Azuremoon2 said:

I wouldnt bank on it, they have been wrong 21 times in a row in my area.

Come on, it's a very big yellow blob, there must be at least one storm in there to justify it.....

[Chris.R]

WRF is looking good again for me this afternoon. 700–900 J CAPE; -4 LI. MUCAPE lasting well into the night. Not much sheer though. Looking even better just to my SW. On the other hand Arpege shows nothing at all.

[A Face like Thunder]

Heavy rain in S Cheshire this morning, as forecast, but no sign of any thundery activity.

[The PIT]

Met office have removed the warning for storms today and the front looks weaker than expected.

[BrickFielder]

The storm threat today will most likely pale in comparison to Hurricanes Grace (hitting Mexico) and Henri (heading for long island). Temperatures are low for Good storm development and the risks are marginal. Forecast modelling differs in the detail so it is hard to identify areas at risk. South West , Wales and West Midlands look like being at risk of post frontal storms developing as a result of both steepening lapse rates and surface wind convergence. Squall line development seems less likely generally although some models develop a surface low early evening towards London ,and East Anglia. Tricky to say much more because models vary so much but the surface low suggested by one model does suggest moderate storm development which is difficult to identify the suggested causation.

One of those days where radar watching will give better ideas of the storm risk than the models.

 

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Heavy rain in S Cheshire this morning, as forecast, but no sign of any thundery activity.

It will be late this afternoon/evening after it clears. Would kick off very quick though if it happens. or nothing will happen at all.

[matty40s]

53 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Met office have removed the warning for storms today and the front looks weaker than expected.

However, they have replaced it with a heavy rain warning in the same general area....with thunderstorms expected too!!

[Chris.R]

Starting to brighten up here. Only had a bit of drizzle so far and a few bursts of moderate rain earlier. 5 mm.

Edited August 21, 2021 by Chris.R

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Local forecasts are a joke. Yesterday, Anglia news saying there would be thunder over EA. One question, where on earth is the energy coming from? There’s no diurnal heating and 850hpa temps are pretty tempered. 

[staplehurst]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Local forecasts are a joke. Yesterday, Anglia news saying there would be thunder over EA. One question, where on earth is the energy coming from? There’s no diurnal heating and 850hpa temps are pretty tempered. 

The main risk for East Anglia is this evening/overnight as the upper low over Ireland slides across southern Britain. There is a small chance for the likes of Yorkshire this afternoon with some weak mid-level instability, but the main interest is the post-frontal environment as cold air aloft overspreads the existing humid airmass in place.

 

On 19/08/2021 at 15:20, Azuremoon2 said:

well today is the 21st thunderstorm warning of the year for my area, how many storms have we had so far? ZERO. Yep. 20 times in a row a storm warning came to absolutely nothing, again today, another storm warning, absolutely nothing. we even in the 30% today and still nothing. I think they should get rid of warnings now and just release them as and when radar suggests something is going to happen.

Absolutely pathetic to be wrong 20 times in a row.

I don't recall the Met Office issuing a thunderstorm warning for Thursday, unless I missed it?

Edited August 21, 2021 by staplehurst

[Tn9]

Well it's neither here nor there ,like bf said it's look up ,or radar ,bit wishy washy,it has become a bit muggy but it's also like someone's chucked a wet dish cloth over us ,not a glimmer of the sun ,rain from front hasn't wet the floor ,so sort of left out in the ..well it's not really cold ,nor hot ,nor rainy ,nor nothing really

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

However, they have replaced it with a heavy rain warning in the same general area....with thunderstorms expected too!!

That ain't happening either. At the moment playing spot the rain drop while the sun tries and gets out.

[Chris.R]

Sun is trying to come out now.

[Argyle10]

Just had a torrential shower here with thunder after it had passed

Edited August 21, 2021 by Charlie Harnett
Spelling

[DIS1970]

Looking like the storm warnings were a little overcooked again today. Just a dull day with some light rain at times.

[TJS1998Tom]

Still saying storms tonight but another over cast day, always the case when storms are forecast

[The PIT]

17 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Looking like the storm warnings were a little overcooked again today. Just a dull day with some light rain at times.

Bit like the rain warnings. 0.2mm this before seven o'clock. I guess it will be siren warnings when we get a 1mm of rain lol.

[dr weather]

50 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:

Just had a torrential shower here with thunder after it had passed

I think those post-frontal showers are headed in my direction; if so they will probably hit in an hour or so. Be interesting to see how much they intensify (if at all).

[Turquoise]

Oh look a thunderstorm warning. I guess that means no thunderstorms then. 

[matty40s]

Yesterdays warning....

...and today's only lightning so far...

 

[Liam Burge]

3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Yesterdays warning....

...and today's only lightning so far...

 

Give it chance. The day is still young.

[Argyle10]

15 minutes ago, dr weather said:

I think those post-frontal showers are headed in my direction; if so they will probably hit in an hour or so. Be interesting to see how much they intensify (if at all).

You might have some more coming! My only two storms of the summer in one day! (I just had more thunder) 

[Raindrops]

Finally the shield broke over Dublin, some nice rumbles and heavy showers, nothing crazy, steady moving.