Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[It's a Philcast]

Just watching this cell developing south of me..I'm guessing its the one just over Winchcome.

[Had Worse]

11 minutes ago, It's a Philcast said:

Just watching this cell developing south of me..I'm guessing its the one just over Winchcome.

Suns out there, no heat here and slate grey skies.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Had Worse

[TJS1998Tom]

Some heavier rain popping up but don't think it'll turn into thunderstorms as the forecast suggests

 

[Tornadotitan]

Had some lovely whippys today in Essex

[TJS1998Tom]

About 200 J/KG Cape around according to the Ventusky app around 1am hmmmmm. Wishful thinking though

 

[Turquoise]

Another day of absolutely nothing despite being in warning zone. That's the 16th time in a row we havnt had a storm when it's been forecasted. Ridiculous to be honest. 

[Wold Topper]

The rains finally arrived on the east coast, tipping it down now, oh well will be a wet late night dog walk,

[Norfolk Sheep]

6 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Heard some distant deep rumbles earlier from that departing storm to my NE. 

Hoping that next week, we see that low pressure in the atlantic set up in a place to draw up some of that serious heat building up over Iberia. I would love a repeat of that night time show that happened last year over the North Sea in the early hours of the 21 August, but 100 miles further west! I’ve never seen such rapid development and electrification of storms as that night. What made it even more beautiful, was that the ambient sky was so crystal clear. I’m sure there would have been sprites generated from that too. 

Silent lightning storm gives impressive display over North Sea | ITV News Anglia

WWW.ITV.COM

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A silent lightning storm gave an impressive display over the North Sea | ITV News Anglia

 

What was so impressive was how it literally exploded into life in the North Sea (again!). 

[MikeUpjohn]

Torrential rain passing through Macclesfield at the moment, but no thunder. TheHundred cricket on Tuesday, so could do with this clearing off now if it's not going to give us a good lightning show!

[Chris.R]

75 mm of rain in the past 60 hours and no lightning within  50 km. A horrible few days.

[Chris.R]

Interestingly, comparing my data it seems Crosby has had only 25 mm in the past 60 hours. Shows you what moving inland does.

[The PIT]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

75 mm of rain in the past 60 hours and no lightning within  50 km. A horrible few days.

Over on this side of the Pennines just made 9.9mm as off this morning here some more since but a huge difference.

[Chris.R]

Another very heavy shower just gone through. That’s 22 mm for today already. And only 3.7 mm at my Crosby station. I hope this happens in the winter with snow.

[Chris.R]

Oh look here is the sun. Nearly forgot what it was.

[Allseasons-Si]

Sorry these are a bit late,...had a really late night last night

-------------------------------------

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 08 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 09 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:42 UTC Sun 08 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low continues to cover the UK/Ireland on Sunday, generally centred over Scotland while slowly filling. Multiple PV anomalies / shortwaves will rotate anticlockwise around the upper low through the forecast period. One such feature will drive an area of showery rain, with some embedded lightning, northwestwards over the North Sea towards Orkney and Shetland - although possibly with a weakening trend towards arrival. Elsewhere, outbreaks of rain are likely to affect parts of Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland initially, but will probably break up into heavy showers by the afternoon. Diurnal heating will lead to 400-800 J/kg CAPE, and a number of heavy showers are expected to develop - particularly across Cen S / SE England and East Anglia coinciding with a minor shortwave trough in the afternoon, but also over/to the east of the Pennines and within the slacker regime in central/southern Scotland. Here, the light steering winds could lead to localised surface water flooding, while stronger flow further south across England will enable individual cells to move quicker to the ENE with a greater chance of hail and gusty winds. As was the case on Saturday, fairly tall, skinny CAPE profiles with weak shear (mostly 5-10kts, locally higher) will tend to limit the amount of lightning activity while still producing heavy downpours.

Any cells lingering across southern England during the evening hours may be able to utilise the strengthening mid-level flow. There is a risk of a few lightning strikes in NE Northern Ireland too, but cloud cover and outbreaks of rain casts too much uncertainty to introduce a SLGT. During the evening and and overnight period, the next PV anomaly will swing from SW Ireland across the Celtic Sea towards SW England / English Channel. This will lead to an increase in shower activity spreading eastwards with time, and while a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible in S Wales / Bristol Channel / SW England / English Channel and adjacent coasts, the risk in any one location is considered generally too low to warrant specific SLGT areas - the only exception is S Wales where a low-end SLGT has been introduced when considering climatology in similar setups, however confidence that lightning will occur is rather low. Nonetheless, the strongest cells could produce some hail and gusty winds.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

and Estofex has this,...type 2 tornadoes for Ireland and Scotland

A level 1 was issued for parts of Ireland and parts for Scotland mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for Type-II tornadoes...

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just thought I’d have a ride out! This was the storm that hit NW Norfolk half an hour ago. 

[cbish8]

Hello, spent the weekend in Northumberland and there were plenty of showers, particularly heavy today. The drive on the M1 after J28 was very precarious. Surprised to hear no thunder despite following thunderstorm warnings around the country!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ugh, cloudscapes.

Still... cloudscapes

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

17 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

What was so impressive was how it literally exploded into life in the North Sea (again!). 

Honestly couldn’t believe what I was seeing literally straight after I noticed the first intense grey pixels flag up on the radar just off Lowestoft/Yarmouth, looked out to the east from my house and could see indirect very frequent flashing from some 150 miles away!! Took a trip out in the open fens, and my god!! It was mind blowing. Only looked about 40-50 miles away if I wouldn’t have known any better. Sat for hours watching it. At its peak, it was flashing every 1-2 seconds! I’ve still got lots of footage of it. 

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, cbish8 said:

Hello, spent the weekend in Northumberland and there were plenty of showers, particularly heavy today. The drive on the M1 after J28 was very precarious. Surprised to hear no thunder despite following thunderstorm warnings around the country!

Maybe the convective experts can answer this but were the Met Office warnings for thunderstorms, justified, going off the data?    There were hardly any thunderstorms. There were 3 days of thunderstorm warnings as well for some areas.

[matty40s]

28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Maybe the convective experts can answer this but were the Met Office warnings for thunderstorms, justified, going off the data?    There were hardly any thunderstorms. There were 3 days of thunderstorm warnings as well for some areas.

We cancelled a kids mini camping festival over the weekend as the forecast was that bad, (and on Friday was showing rain every hour on Saturday!!). It lightly rained once, only Sunday has been consistently heavy showers. ....

But no thunder at all.

Edited August 8, 2021 by matty40s

[Turquoise]

something is seriously wrong now...today was the 20th separate thunderstorm warning this summer for my town.....and none of the 20 warnings have brought a storm..in fact we have had 1 rumble of thunder since last August......how can they be so wrong all the time?

[Dorsetbred]

23 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

something is seriously wrong now...today was the 20th separate thunderstorm warning this summer for my town.....and none of the 20 warnings have brought a storm..in fact we have had 1 rumble of thunder since last August......how can they be so wrong all the time?

Practice!

[Guest]

On 08/08/2021 at 19:00, Azuremoon2 said:

something is seriously wrong now...today was the 20th separate thunderstorm warning this summer for my town.....and none of the 20 warnings have brought a storm..in fact we have had 1 rumble of thunder since last August......how can they be so wrong all the time?

A warning is not a guarantee though. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

58 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

something is seriously wrong now...today was the 20th separate thunderstorm warning this summer for my town.....and none of the 20 warnings have brought a storm..in fact we have had 1 rumble of thunder since last August......how can they be so wrong all the time?

Probably down to being too far west in these Maritime W-E setups. Typically diurnal driven storms need a decent, uninterrupted land track/fetch over time to get to a decent maturing stage, hence most electrification taking place in counties such as Lincs, E/N Yorks, E Anglia and Kent.

A South/Southeast or even an Easterly with warmth and instability suits your location far better, as the opposite from above occurs. Last year I was having to chase into the Midlands to get the best out of the storms, and would’ve been even better placed if I drove to places such as Stoke and beyond. Over in Norfolk, we was the breeding ground at best on an easterly, straight off the North Sea, and to get anything decent, we would be reliant on the odd rogue import out of Belgium/Netherlands which never normally made it across the chilly N sea. A few on rare occasions have though.