Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Eee]

Some other photos.

[Eee]

Nice distant rainbow and rain curtain.

[P-M]

Disappointing day here in the North east for storms but I have just captured this at Roker Beach in Sunderland when out with the dogs. 

[Eee]

Better shot of anvil.

[Rush2019]

2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Nothing going on here, throwing in the towel. A pile of crap
tomorrow looking better.

Still have warnings out through tonight, like you I'm doubtful.  Been some strong bursts of sunshine this afternoon, lots of cumulus congestus but with no significant vertical growth.  Very wet tomorrow, with a chance of something electrical, wonder if your towel gets thrown again.

[Ryukai]

Got this amazing beauty to my south, looks to be the cell over Stone.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Got this amazing beauty to my south, looks to be the cell over Stone.

Aye, it will be! same anvil to my north

[Ryukai]

On 06/08/2021 at 19:33, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, it will be! same anvil to my north

Anvil progression update (It's disappearing behind the side of the house now though T_T )

[aaliyah]

some lovely rumbles in the distance

[Andy Bown]

There is a narrow line from Wincanton-Reading which had nearly 2 inches of rain in only a few hours this afternoon. Some of the storms had rainfall rates around 150mm per hour for brief periods!

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Here was a dying cell from Croydon.  Gotta take what I can now it's August...

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Chris Lea-Alex

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m up early and decided to get some cheeky work done on the sly.

Lightning would be nice

[sunnijim]

Narrow band of convective rainfall from the isle of wight running up into SE London.

Not altering its path and the 'rain train' is putting down some decent totals.

M.O app has it turning thundery late morning too.

We shall see.

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Narrow band of convective rainfall from the isle of wight running up into SE London.

Not altering its path and the 'rain train' is putting down some decent totals.

M.O app has it turning thundery late morning too.

We shall see.

I'm a little surprised the met haven't put out a warning, its probably already put 20-30mms down in some parts and that train still looks reasonably solid as well.

I've seen less given a warning before.

[sunnijim]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm a little surprised the met haven't put out a warning, its probably already put 20-30mms down in some parts and that train still looks reasonably solid as well.

I've seen less given a warning before.

Having looked back at their video weekend forecast issued yesterday,the situation we see this morning is not even forecast.

Looks to me as though the wave shown on the midnight fax chart in the channel has edged further north than anticipated?

[Supacell]

It looks like it has started to spark too around Woking. An early start to the thundery activity today.

[Tom Quintavalle]

2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

Narrow band of convective rainfall from the isle of wight running up into SE London.

Not altering its path and the 'rain train' is putting down some decent totals.

M.O app has it turning thundery late morning too.

We shall see.

Don't often post in this Thread but felt compelled to, this Morning.

Can concur with sunnijim's post above. Just down the road from him, here in Lee, it's been bucketing down on and off, since around 5.30.

It's certainly been some of the heaviest rain I've heard in quite a while, and almost sounds thundery by nature.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by TomSE12

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 07 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 08 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:22 UTC Sat 07 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Quasi-stationary upper low continues to sit over the UK/Ireland on Saturday, providing the focus for another convective day across many areas. An occlusion, and associated rain, will swing eastwards across England and Wales during the day, but even this is likely to break up by the afternoon - albeit providing an eastwards-moving corridor of cloud and subdued surface temperatures. Ahead, a pre-frontal trough will spread showers or showery outbreaks of rain from the Channel Islands across Cen S England into SE England and East Anglia during the morning, and this feature may contain some sporadic lightning in places - although the extent/coverage is a little uncertain. Also, behind the occlusion increasing surface heating will aid numerous showers from Cen S England through the Midlands, northern England, southern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland, and these will likely migrate eastwards into east / southeast England later in the day. Republic of Ireland and into Wales is rather messy, with areas of cloud and outbreaks of rain generally reducing the coverage of heavy showers and casting some uncertainty as to how much lightning may actually occur. 

For the most part tall, skinny CAPE with rather weak shear at 5-10kts (locally higher), will likely result in a rather messy pulse-type mode. Some localised surface water flooding will be possible across Scotland and Northern Ireland in particular, where storm motion will be rather slow - regardless of whether there is much lightning or not. Storm motion may be a little faster across England and Wales, especially further south where some slightly better organisation may be possible with increased cell longevity.

Attempts have been made to highlight areas at greater risk of some sporadic lightning, however given the very messy setup it is certainly plausible that both (a) lightning could occur outside of the SLGT areas, and (b) large portions of the SLGTs could also remain void of lightning. Most lightning activity will fade through the evening, although another shortwave sliding eastwards through the English Channel could produce a few isolated lightning strikes near the Channel Islands during the night.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[StormLoser]

2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Don't often post in this Thread but felt compelled to, this Morning.

Can concur with sunnijim's post above. Just down the road from him, here in Lee, it's been bucketing down on and off, since around 5.30.

It's certainly been some of the heaviest rain I've heard in quite a while, and almost sounds thundery by nature.

Regards,

Tom. 

I heard the rain around 6 this morning in Reigate. Now been around our garden and it was an absolute inundation. So much rain that it pulled the canvas awning down off our metal pergola! (Now that's a new one for me). The pond got filled up to overflowing and everything is awash with water.

I thought I'd catch up with the Met Office's video forecast. That was a mistake. Out of date, inaccurate and overly jolly as always. (Off stage swearing, left)

Thanks Dan for your forecast! 

[Chris.R]

I wish this occlusion would bugger off! Things didn’t clear up fast enough yesterday and that ruin yesterday.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I wish this occlusion would bugger off! Things didn’t clear up fast enough yesterday and that ruin yesterday.

Story of the year methinks. Wet mess after wet mess

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Thunder heard just a minute ago confirmed with strike on live map on lightning maps.

[karyo]

I took the train from London at 9:30 with soaking rain. From Milton Keynes to Birmingham dry with some sunny spells and now about to enter the next band of rain on my way to Manchester.

[BrickFielder]

Pretty much in line with Dan's forecast.

Some low level wind convergence and the remnants of the occluded front bringing a pretty moist air profile and triggering some possible storms.

Mid level cloud is scooting along whilst surface winds are low so perhaps some updraft downdraft separation and longer lived storms but moist profile is likely to give messy convection. Weak instability and low surface temperatures unlikely to drive severe storms. Some disk of back building storms and localized very heavy rainfall.

[Chris.R]

Thankfully seems to be starting to clear up now.