Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Karl83]

34 minutes ago, dr weather said:

Great video! What speed is the timelapse at? Was this the storm that was active around 1730-1845?

Yes it was indeed that storm. Shot from Rolls-Royce in Patchway. I had it set to auto so not sure on the speed.

When I left work the clouds were visibly rotating everywhere so a timelapse confirmed what was going on up there. I was hoping for a funnel to drop out.

[Dangerous55019]

Just seen this on the U.K. Meto app.

It’ll probably change by then, but in the meantime it’s something to look forward too. ?⛈

[<<Ryan>>]

WOW WOW WOW. Extreme amounts of rain between Tenterden and Appledore. Fast flowing muddy water everywhere. 

[Jamie M]

On 03/08/2021 at 11:57, &lt;&lt;Ryan&gt;&gt; said:

WOW WOW WOW. Extreme amounts of rain between Tenterden and Appledore. Fast flowing muddy water everywhere. 

Was about to come on here and mention it. Had someone message me about 'biblical rain' in Woodchurch and those guesstimates look nasty! 

[Jamie M]

My report for Tenterden

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Tenterden, Kent

Bit wet in Tenterden

[<<Ryan>>]

Around 3 inches fell in less than an hour. The fast flowing water had large pieces of tarmac and even 3 parts of a brick trundling down the hill. Short clip of how things were after it had calmed down just a little. 

... That was fun  

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by <<Ryan>>

[dr weather]

2 hours ago, Karl83 said:

Yes it was indeed that storm. Shot from Rolls-Royce in Patchway. I had it set to auto so not sure on the speed.

When I left work the clouds were visibly rotating everywhere so a timelapse confirmed what was going on up there. I was hoping for a funnel to drop out.

Yeah, I watched the same rotation for about 30 mins, from about 7 miles away. It looked like it would do something but nothing happened. Funnily enough, this is almost exactly the same location at which I filmed a ropey funnel cloud a few years ago.

[Fresco1985]

A few bigger Cumulus clouds building over South West London..

[UnderTheAnvil]

can anyone in the lincoln area confirm whether that big cell on radar is electrically active or not?

[Allseasons-Si]

A discrete cell has popped up just west of here and there is more building just south of it.

 

[Guest]

Snap! @Allseasons-si

 

[Had Worse]

Nothing here on Scratby beach. The drive home on Friday though could be quite eventful. 

[Allseasons-Si]

First sferics to the west of here.

[karyo]

It looks like another boring day in the London area. The sky looks quite stable and devoid of convective activity.

[Tony M]

Those storms between Manchester and Sheffield appear to be growing without hardly moving.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

On 04/08/2021 at 11:35, Tony M said:

Those storms between Manchester and Sheffield appear to be growing without hardly moving.

 

Yes flooding is the main concern as apposed to electrical activity with maybe a funnel cloud or two thrown in...

------------------------------------

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 04 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 05 Aug 2021

ISSUED 06:54 UTC Wed 04 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A slack surface pressure pattern dominates once again across much of the UK/Ireland, with subtle mid-level troughing. As with previous days, cool air in the mid-levels combined with surface heating through the day will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE in an environment with modestly-steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered showers are likely to develop in places, tied to low-level convergence (such as sea breeze) and orographic forcing. Lower surface dewpoints in a zone from Cambridgeshire - Northamptonshire - Humber and across parts of southern Scotland could lead to a relative minima in shower coverage in these areas. For much of England and Wales, convection will tend to be limited by a capping inversion around ~650mb (~13,000ft) as warming aloft occurs in advance of the Atlantic frontal system arriving overnight; therefore areas that retain colder air in the mid-levels for longest will have the greatest potential for deeper convection and some sporadic lightning strikes, i.e. north Midlands / northern England. That said, even here convection could still be a little restricted in depth. Flow will be weak through much of the cloud-bearing layer resulting in slow storm movement which could lead to prolonged heavy downpours on a local scale, bringing the risk of localised surface water flooding. Therefore the main hazard will be locally high rainfall totals, even in the absence of much in the way of lightning. Some evidence of backed low-level winds, coupled with vorticity stretching along convergence zones, could lead to a couple of funnel clouds. 

Across Scotland and Northern Ireland, stronger southwesterly flow aloft should allow individual cells to move slightly faster, but back-building or multiple cells running parallel in the flow could still lead to locally high rainfall totals - especially along northern coastal parts of Ulster and Caithness/Sutherland. Again, the main hazard will be locally high rainfall totals, regardless if there is much in the way of lightning or not.

 

During the overnight period, strong shear will develop across southern, central and western Ireland, with backed low-level winds and perhaps overlapping with a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Frontal rain will spread northeastwards during the night, but it is possible later that should any surface-based deep convection manage to develop then this could produce some sporadic lightning and pose the risk of an isolated tornado - but confidence is rather low.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Atmogenic]

Already got bubbly cumulus clouds here, hopefully see some action later

[Guest]

Skies filling in nicely here. Some dark bases as cumulus tries to develop further. 

That being said, wouldn't be at all surprised if we avoided the precipitation today and it stayed out west. Want the garden watering though.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[toggerob]

That was unexpected, finished work early this morning and wasn't anticipating much in the way of convection today (forecast was supposed to be sunny spells all day) then around 10am I was woken by the sound of hail and peeked out the window to see a few CU clouds but thought nothing much about it. Some 30 minutes later on I was woken again by the familiar sound of a loud thunder-rumble, quickly jumping out of bed and now catching up on what's going on.

[sheikhy]

21 degrees here and i can see storm clouds to the north and west!!!!beautiful!!

[marksp]

radar looks good, storms seem to be all around the peak district but not penetrating the peak park boundary haha

[alexisj9]

43 minutes ago, Tony M said:

Those storms between Manchester and Sheffield appear to be growing without hardly moving.

 

Yep hence the rain warning that's out. If you get one of these, they will hang around, it's a slow mover day.

[toggerob]

Localized reports of flooding around the High Peak from parts of Chapel-en-le-Frith, Hayfield, Chinley, and the A6 Bypass affected. Add on the midday & holiday traffic and i'm glad I didn't need to travel out the house to watch it all unfold.

[BrickFielder]

Pretty much agree with Dan's forecast. Timing of upper air warmth limiting cloud tops looks to be slightly wrong on modelling so perhaps better chance of storms than originally forecast.

Key areas north Midlands , Yorkshire, Merseyside along with parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Eyes are then drawn to Friday.

 

Temperatures are limited so severe storm possibility is limited but an interesting scenario. Scenario is likely to change as we get closer to Friday.

I did notice some instability for Iceland , Norway today which is likely to enrage the no storms club.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Thunder to my N/NE,sadly i have to dash off for work.