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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The most likely scenario is a gradual rise in average temperatures but we have no reliable way of knowing when there could be brief interruptions in that trend as we saw around 2009-10. There is also some possibility that with the increase will come greater variability. That might broaden the range of outcomes which combined with the upward shift might give a sort of continuation of the current colder third of outcomes but add to that a warmer third than we see nowadays. My guess is that there will still be the occasional cold and snowy interval even if the averages increase by 1 to 1.5 C as seems likely.

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

My prediction is simple. Any noticeable warming will not occur until after 2050 if anything we are likely to see a slight cooling with at least one if not two significant winters before then. Once the solar cycles return to the level of cycles 20/21/and 22 then the warming will kick in

Snow is not something that will have disappeared by 2050 and unlikely to disappear from the uk ever

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
13 minutes ago, jonboy said:

My prediction is simple. Any noticeable warming will not occur until after 2050 if anything we are likely to see a slight cooling with at least one if not two significant winters before then. Once the solar cycles return to the level of cycles 20/21/and 22 then the warming will kick in

Snow is not something that will have disappeared by 2050 and unlikely to disappear from the uk ever

Well your prediction is already wrong because we are seeing a noticeable period of warming already, irrespective of solar cycles which seems to keep popping up again and again.

Yes we may see some cold winters but changes in atmospheric circulation don't suddenly take out the increasing levels of heat building up across our planet due to CO2 emissions. Where else do you expect that heat to go?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The most likely scenario is a gradual rise in average temperatures but we have no reliable way of knowing when there could be brief interruptions in that trend as we saw around 2009-10. There is also some possibility that with the increase will come greater variability. That might broaden the range of outcomes which combined with the upward shift might give a sort of continuation of the current colder third of outcomes but add to that a warmer third than we see nowadays. My guess is that there will still be the occasional cold and snowy interval even if the averages increase by 1 to 1.5 C as seems likely.

Yup, that's mentioned in the Christmas video however which as a cross between a meteorologist and climatologist I thought was pretty good in all fairness.

I still think winters like 2010 are still possible in the future. Just that if they do occur there will be greater positive temperature anomalies elsewhere compared to past spells with similar synoptics. As cold as 2010 was here it was the warmest year globally at the time. 

Globally I can't see anything stopping future temperature rises with the exception of a brief blip or 2 from a major volcanic eruption or we turn to geo-engineering. Though regionally in the winter months there may be more variations depending on what the overlying atmospheric circulation does. 

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well your prediction is already wrong because we are seeing a noticeable period of warming already, irrespective of solar cycles which for some bizarre reason keep popping up again and again.

Yes we may see some cold winters but changes in atmospheric circulation don't suddenly take out the increasing levels of heat building up across our planet due to CO2 emissions. Where else do you expect that heat to go?

If atmospheric circulations don’t suddenly take out warming what causes the massive temperature swings we have seen in the past the obvious one is volcanic activity but what else? Something else most drive changes in temperature other than emissions. Ocean currents and solar activity seem the obvious contenders . 

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, seabreeze86 said:

If atmospheric circulations don’t suddenly take our warning what causes the massive temperature swings we have seen in the past the obvious one is volcanic activity but what else? Something else most drive changes in temperature other than emissions. Ocean currents and solar activity seem the obvious contenders . 

Well for that we have to look at much longer timescales and that mechanism is Milankovitch cycles, namely changes in the Earth's tilt, precession and eccentricity. These take place on timescales of thousands of years. Technically we should be heading into an ice age due to the way these cycles are heading but such is the rise in greenhouse gases, that cooling signal is being offset.

Other changes such as the Younger Dryas, come as a consequence of massive changes to the AMOC which if it shut down would have a massive impact on global atmospheric circulation patterns and would leave some areas of the northern hemisphere several degrees colder whilst the warming in the southern hemisphere would be greatly accelerated. I'll go through something I mentioned a while back but here would be the net change in temperatures globally if the AMOC collapsed (so not factoring increasing CO2 emissions):

image.thumb.png.98fb88a4b3aa9440cabb995706e4b973.png

and here is a quote from what I wrote:

" I expect the drop in winter temperatures across the northern hemisphere would be staggering if the AMOC went into full blown collapse. It would be catastrophic. Summers I believe could turn even warmer across many areas of the northern hemisphere. Winters and perhaps into much of Autumn and Spring would be far far colder that would far outweigh it, as the moderating influence of the Gulf Stream is taken away. It would be seasonal climate variability on steroids. "

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well your prediction is already wrong because we are seeing a noticeable period of warming already, irrespective of solar cycles which seems to keep popping up again and again.

Yes we may see some cold winters but changes in atmospheric circulation don't suddenly take out the increasing levels of heat building up across our planet due to CO2 emissions. Where else do you expect that heat to go?

My prediction is my prediction I don't go round saying yours are godswallop so don't do it to mine. I don't remind everyone that the predictions of 10 years ago of no artic ice or catastrophic failure of Antarctic ice  have failed to materialise. So I stand by my prediction and equally why  

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, jonboy said:

My prediction is my prediction I don't go round saying yours are godswallop so don't do it to mine. I don't remind everyone that the predictions of 10 years ago of no artic ice or catastrophic failure of Antarctic ice  have failed to materialise. So I stand by my prediction and equally why  

The consensus amongst the scientists was the first summer technically free of Arctic Sea ice was the 2030s with 1 or two extreme ensemble members suggesting the late 2010s if 2012 style synoptic patterns kept repeating themselves. That's like picking an extreme mild outlier from a bunch of GFS ensemble members, it was an extreme variation of what the model consensus was going for.

Antarctic Sea Ice is a more complicated matter due to the geography of Antarctica and the position of the jet in the southern oceans means it is easier to keep the cold air contained over the Antarctic continent. This quote sums it up:

" Sea ice extent is affected by winds and ocean currents as well as temperature. Sea ice in the partly-enclosed Arctic Ocean seems to be responding directly to warming, while changes in winds and in the ocean seem to be dominating the patterns of climate and sea ice change in the ocean around Antarctica. "
 

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Why is Arctic sea ice decreasing while Antarctic sea ice is not? Answer

CO2 emissions emissions however are increasing past or close to the worst case scenarios. Given this increase in warmth across the planet, the potential for rising sea levels due to thermal expansion, melting sea ice. The risk of deadly heatwaves and flooding, we can't dismiss the risks posed by climate change. Something needs to be done and a push to renewable technologies would help our air become cleaner too.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Thanks for the reply quicksilver 

So what are we to expect with the Jet stream as we all know that drives our weather.

Do we expect it further North , more elongated so extremes hot and cold either side of the of where blocking sets up?

Or not much change and a gradual warming world wide ?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Thanks for the reply quicksilver 

So what are we to expect with the Jet stream as we all know that drives our weather.

Do we expect it further North , more elongated so extremes hot and cold either side of the of where blocking sets up?

Or not much change and a gradual warming world wide ?

Well that is one of the difficult questions to answer. If the AMOC doesn't change we can expected the jet to move further north and see more in the way of mild south-westerly winters. This was something that was speculated a lot about in the 1990s to mid 2000s with all the strong +NAO winters.

Then 2010 came along and produced some of the most spectacular blocking in recent decades, particularly December 2010.

If the jet moves further north then we can expect warming to accelerate further across much of Europe and Eurasia. Think back to December 2015 for example (though it wouldn't surprise me if that record remained for a while yet, given how extreme that month was). The areas that I think would see a reduced warming in this scenario are probably the North Atlantic, western Greenland, northern Africa and perhaps south-west Asia.

If we ended up in a much more blocked regime for future winters mid-latitudes would still see major cold spells at times, there would be a slight negative feedback from this in terms of global temperatures but the tropics (especially the tropical Atlantic) would become much warmer as well as parts of Africa.

However this is just in reference to the winter months. Outside of these, connections between temperature and atmospheric circulation are weaker and convoluted so regardless of what atmospheric circulation does, there would probably be a consistent warming signal overall. Unless for some unknown reason we get northerlies all the time (which would just initiate further warming elsewhere).

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

Isn't it time that we started to plan for the warmer world and the consequences be it more rainfall or more extremes. The world will not reduce its C02 levels to pre industrial levels. Population levels will peak in the next 20 years and then decline a very fact of an affluent world and equality between men and women.

Plan for the future manage the resources available to you and don't pollute whether that is particulates, soot etc and plant more green

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
21 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Isn't it time that we started to plan for the warmer world and the consequences be it more rainfall or more extremes. The world will not reduce its C02 levels to pre industrial levels. Population levels will peak in the next 20 years and then decline a very fact of an affluent world and equality between men and women.

Plan for the future manage the resources available to you and don't pollute whether that is particulates, soot etc and plant more green

Yup can't argue with much of that. I think geo-engineering has to be a short term solution to future global temperature increases until we can get the technology to help really drive down CO2 emissions to become commonplace. The problem is, how much damage will be done by the time this is achieved?

We should really have started this in the early 1990s when concerns about climate change were beginning to grow but some impacts are locked in now.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The consensus amongst the scientists

i like these quotes...."work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics"... "In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus."

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
42 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i like these quotes...."work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics"... "In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus."

You are exactly right, science isn't about consensus. It is about improving our understanding. A consensus emerges however when a conclusive result is obtained that is unable to be disputed. A great scientist pushes the boundaries of knowledge based on what is already there and developing it further. Every idea has to start with some solid ground beforehand. A great scientist isn't a contrarian just for the sake of it. Imagine if someone said the earth was flat with no evidence, doesn't make them a good scientist does it?

All this dispute takes me back to the BEST study by the University of Berkeley. In this instance a small group of sceptical scientists decided to analyse the global temperature dataset and come up with an independant estimate of global temperatures, their global temperature data was almost exactly in line with CRU, GISS and NOAA. Anthony Watts said prior to this study:

"I'm prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong."

t_logo_300_black.png
GREEN.BLOGS.NYTIMES.COM

A study intended to address critiques of climate science by skeptics confirmed that “global warming is real” and the world’s average land temperature has risen since the mid-1950, but critics were not satisfied.

Yet he went quiet about it afterwards. I wonder why?

A consensus is based on our best understanding of the available science to us. Science pushes that understanding, but when the conclusions become so overwhelming, a consensus emerges, like the consensus against the flat earth theory, the consensus in support of anthropogenic influence on global temperatures etc. It isn't political. Thermometers don't have a political agenda.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex

Who knows.

I read recently the gulf stream is at its slowest speed in 1,600 years. It's possible it could stop, and as a result, we'd get much colder winters, and much drier ones too. Probably slightly warmer or drier summers as well. You can see that some pretty extreme cold weather has happened recently in this warming climate, like this winter in Texas and Spain. 2018-2022 according to the Met Office, is a periodw here we will see rather large tempreature anomalies. This period is coming to an end. I'm not a climate scientist, and so I'm skeptical about the very simplistic explanation that suddenly reducing greenhouse gases will stop tempreature rises or even cool the planet, doesn't this take, like years? Either way, the UK is in an enviable position as far as climate change is concerned, I imagine floods will be the biggest risk. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
4 hours ago, qwertyK said:

I'm not a climate scientist, and so I'm skeptical about the very simplistic explanation that suddenly reducing greenhouse gases will stop tempreature rises or even cool the planet, doesn't this take, like years? 

That is indeed correct, it's a state of damage limitation now which will of course be reduced by cutting emissions. There are some impacts we will have to prepare for unfortunately but how many more additional impacts do we want to deal with?

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

An interesting thread with some interesting answers. For me, personally, being that most forecasts are hardly what I’d call accurate, I don’t think anyone has a hope in hell of predicting our weather 29 years hence. Not a clue. Get them right 5 days out first before trying to make 30 year ones

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
18 hours ago, seabreeze86 said:

If atmospheric circulations don’t suddenly take out warming what causes the massive temperature swings we have seen in the past the obvious one is volcanic activity but what else? Something else most drive changes in temperature other than emissions. Ocean currents and solar activity seem the obvious contenders . 

Heat from below? Geothermal vents? After all we only know 5% of our ocean. It’s a distinct possibility that heat come from within from geological activity

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 hours ago, jonboy said:

My prediction is my prediction I don't go round saying yours are godswallop so don't do it to mine. I don't remind everyone that the predictions of 10 years ago of no artic ice or catastrophic failure of Antarctic ice  have failed to materialise. So I stand by my prediction and equally why  

I don't recall any such predictions, jonboy . . . at least none that would cause those effects, by 2021?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
56 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Heat from below? Geothermal vents? After all we only know 5% of our ocean. It’s a distinct possibility that heat come from within from geological activity

But wouldn't any large areas of anomalously warm SSTs show up on infrared radar scans?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't recall any such predictions, jonboy . . . at least none that would cause those effects, by 2021?

James Hansen in 1988 predicted temperature increase of between 4-6c by 2010-20. In 2007 American scientist were predicting summer ice free artic by 2013. In 2009 Gore predicted an artic free ice by 2014. In 2013 this had moved to 2015. In 1988 the UN predicted the Maldives would be totally under water by 2018 and James Hansen equally predicted that that parts of New York would be under water by 2019.

In all this time CO2 has continued to rise so forgive me for being sceptical about the impact of this gas on our climate.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 hours ago, jonboy said:

James Hansen in 1988 predicted temperature increase of between 4-6c by 2010-20. In 2007 American scientist were predicting summer ice free artic by 2013. In 2009 Gore predicted an artic free ice by 2014. In 2013 this had moved to 2015. In 1988 the UN predicted the Maldives would be totally under water by 2018 and James Hansen equally predicted that that parts of New York would be under water by 2019.

In all this time CO2 has continued to rise so forgive me for being sceptical about the impact of this gas on our climate.

And so have been global temperatures, though not as fast as some of the more extreme-end forecasters have posited. You might benefit from running a simple experiment: see how much light of differing wavelength passes through CO2. It is certain that, as is the case with the speed of light in a vacuum, the results will always be the same. Unless, of course, a 'warmist' has sabotaged your equipment!

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