Weather in 2050

[samthefootball]

Do we think it will still be snowing in 2050 or will it still get hotter. I did read a article saying there might be a mini ice age. What do we think will happen

[I remember Atlantic 252]

guess is snow will not be possible at low levels anywhere in the UK, it's a struggle now, especially with E'lys, they're too mild

[noctrl]

20c in winter should be happening once every few years by 2050, snow will still probably happen but will be a rarer event, flash floods and floods in general will be increasingly common due to rising sea levels and more damaging windstorms.

[samthefootball]

What about cold weather

[cheeky_monkey]

will still be getting 7 months of winter here..if it gets warmer it will also get snowier here

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Interesting topic. Here are my predictions for summers and winters by the time we get to 2050:

*gets out the crystal ball...

Summer - 35 Celsius temps will be a lot more frequent by then and widespread across the whole of the UK, even up Scotland. AC will also be commonplace in UK homes by 2050. Perhaps even 40 Celsius will make its first ever appearance in the south. Unfortunately for us thunderstorm lovers, thunderstorms will be an extremely rare event indeed.

Winter - with the rising sea levels, winters will be milder and far wetter with snow being a very rare event; even just a slight dusting will be a rarity. 20 Celsius days in February (particularly the latter half) certainly will be nothing out of the ordinary by that point. As for frosty nights, those will be very few and far between.

Edited July 23, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[samthefootball]

Any other predictions, or anyone think that the weather won't really change that much

[noctrl]

1 hour ago, samthefootball said:

Any other predictions, or anyone think that the weather won't really change that much

Honestly it will definitely change but it looks like the UK temperature wise isn't getting affected as much as areas like North America. However, rising sea levels as a result of it will definitely impact us, especially as an island nation. I think you should take a look at this url, it's a partnership between the BBC and Met Office and it's the estimates for the future of our climate, displaying the warmest winter days, and how much it rains on average .etc

Link - 

What will climate change look like in your area? - BBC News

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The BBC and the Met Office have looked at the country's changing climate in detail.

 

[Weather-history]

Weather in 2050? What narks me are people who predict the extinction of weather types

Long term members will remember Stratos Ferric and their prediction, oddly disappeared  after January 2010. We have a recent benchmark on serious cold and that is December 2010, up to Christmas it was even colder and that was 11 years ago this December.How many in 2000 would have predicted a December that cold could occur again?

How many after April 2011 would have predicted that the frostiest April on record could still be shattered. (It was in 2021).

"guess is snow will not be possible at low levels anywhere in the UK,"  It snowed on 22 days this winter including Christmas Day  just gone for my location, it snowed and lay despite a few hours before it had been raining for hours and it was exceptionally mild, it even snowed in April this year. Are we saying 29 years time this would not be possible anymore?  It may become rarer but no way anyone can extrapolate over a very short period of climatic time and say no snow possible anywhere at low levels in the UK.  The low levels at Plymouth is not the same as the low levels at Wick.

The weather will do what the weather will do. Snow may become rarer, but the weather can produce surprises such as December 2010, March 2013, April 2021. So I would expect further surprises. 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Weather-history

[Optimus Prime]

Be honest, did anyone ever expect the possibility of a December 2015?

I wouldn't had thought so this side of 2040

[kold weather]

I suspect as others have said you'll still get anomalies that will be thrown up that will hark back to 'older times' much like Dec 2010 was a hark back to the 80s style winter.

However we do know a couple of things are likely:

1: Our overall baseline temperatures will increase. That means the previously marginal snow events are now the wrong side of marginal due to the increased background temps, 20c in winter becomes more frequent, though still probably not *that* often as it requires a very specific set-up to be reached even now. We probably will see an increase in those extreme heat days, particularly in the south. I'd guess 40c will probably have fallen by 2050 given we aren't that drastically far away even now.

2: Our winter patterns will get wetter, whilst summer patterns get more extreme with regards to precip (its harder to call due to the air being warmer = more moisture, but also we could see the whole subtropic belt of HP move north which would in theory dry things out somewhat, indeed we may end up with two alternating set-ups depending on the years background state.)

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

Be honest, did anyone ever expect the possibility of a December 2015?

I wouldn't had thought so this side of 2040

Aye, and expect a repeat sometime, certainly likely another winter month will happen again

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

Be honest, did anyone ever expect the possibility of a December 2015?

I wouldn't had thought so this side of 2040

No because it was a freak month. Even in a warming climate, it is still a freak month. If the December 2011-40 CET  average were say 6.0C, it is still 3.7C above that average.

 April 2011 was 3.9C above the 1961-90 average.  December 2015 was 5.0C above the 1961-90 average

It would not surprise me if by 2115, the December CET record still held by 2015. 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Weather-history

[Frost HoIIow]

Even in a warming climate think there must be a limit on heat in this country. After all we are a long way north (nothings going to change that) and so the window of opportunity to get heat is a more limited compared to say Spain etc who get hotter earlier in the year and it lingers later. Sun strength is a factor too and the fact we're a bunch of islands away from continental heat. I think we'll officially breach 40C sooner or later but much higher than that? I don't think so. But of course we'll likely get more vigorous LP systems along with alternating drought due to climate change. I think we are already seeing this now as we often get stuck in a rut much more than I can remember.

Edited July 24, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[IanR]

On 23/07/2021 at 18:59, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Unfortunately for us thunderstorm lovers, thunderstorms will be an extremely rare event indeed.

 

They already have become an extremely rare event here ,  They were a guaranteed part of the summer makup especially before the year 2000 say,     and even in spring 'thundery showers' was not that unusual,   but their frequency seems to have waned over the last few years ,  only heard distant thunder on one day from this location and its nearly August .   

[Rollo]

Kold’s reply re future winters is not encouraging at all,  I will not be around to see snowless winters winters becoming the norm ( I have to admit even in the North East some winters are getting close to it) but it makes me realise how fortunate I was to be around and young enough to appreciate the winters of 62-63, 78-79, 80-81 and there were of course others. 
I live in hope foe one more big freeze up—- perhaps 21-22!

[Ross90]

I think some people are describing the very upper limit of what could happen and it's probably more likely that those conditions won't be commonplace for at least 100 years.

 

There will still be snow in 30 years, it might be less frequent and the southern third of the UK might struggle to see any low level snow. The north will still have a few snow days per year although they will become more marginal with fewer days of lying snow. It'll become more stormy with more frequent strong winds. I'm thinking 80mph will become a once a year event instead of the current once every 5 years or so across most areas. There will be more flooding in winter and summer with more frequent heavy rain and long rainy spells during the winter. 40C will be broken every couple of years in the south with 30C likely being reached fairly regularly in the north. Infrastructure and houses will need to be built to different specs and building on flood plains or close by any rivers will be banned or at least more restricted.

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, IanR said:

They already have become an extremely rare event here ,  They were a guaranteed part of the summer makup especially before the year 2000 say,     and even in spring 'thundery showers' was not that unusual,   but their frequency seems to have waned over the last few years ,  only heard distant thunder on one day from this location and its nearly August .   

I would say thunderstorms were a dead cert up until 2006. 2007 was the period I noticed a massive reduction in thunderstorm activity. Even the early to mid 2000s provided some decent overnight storms. 

[Sunny76]

Snow in winter will still happen, even if we don’t get it for a few years at a time. Summers will still be good and poor. 

[kold weather]

On 24/07/2021 at 19:48, Frost HoIIow said:

. I think we'll officially breach 40C sooner or later but much higher than that? I don't think so.

Just for reference but June 2019 could have reached 41-42c based on the 850hpa of 24.8c and the very high thickness present. Of course it didn't because we had a bit of a cool undercut from the NE at the very lowest levels (from about 900mbs down) but the heat aloft was there and so we know that at least in theory those sorts of temperatures are do able even today in the perfect set-up.

I'd guess today something like 41-43c is probably the utter limit, about 4-5c above the current record. We've just seen this year Canada smashing its record by that sort of level and based on that near miss in late June 2019, that seems in the range of possibility. 

As for Dec 2015, that month is light years ahead of anything else even from recent very mild winters. I kinda would be worried if we get even reasonably close in the near future. Dec 2018 was quite a poor month overall and yet Dec 2015 was nearly 3c above even that!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I expect that there will be a further warming of the UK climate, somewhere around 0.7 to 1C, above what we have today.  That's the easiest part to predict - what happens as a consequence of that is harder to determine.  The following is what I envisage happening as a result of such further warming of the climate:

In summer, it will become harder to get a fine anticyclonic spell without excessive (mid-high 30s Celsius, probably the occasional 40C) or prolonged (high 20s/low 30s) heat.  I've been noticing this becoming an issue especially since around 2015, and it looks set to continue to intensify.  For spells of dry sunny weather without such heat, May may become the preferred month for many people.  Cooler changeable spells probably won't change much, except for being up to a degree warmer.  More intense rainfall events are likely, but I have low confidence in overall changes in summer rainfall.

Winters will be milder and probably wetter overall.  Synoptics that currently bring snow events and temperatures of 0 to 1C will bring rain or sleet in 2050, but synoptics that bring snow at sub-zero temperatures will still be cold enough for snow in 2050.  The mean annual frequency of lying snow will probably reduce to about half of what it is today, so for example reducing to a mean annual frequency of 3 to 5 days in eastern England from Norfolk northwards, and about 2 days for much of southern England, and less than 1 day in many low-lying parts of the south-west.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Just for reference but June 2019 could have reached 41-42c based on the 850hpa of 24.8c and the very high thickness present. Of course it didn't because we had a bit of a cool undercut from the NE at the very lowest levels (from about 900mbs down) but the heat aloft was there and so we know that at least in theory those sorts of temperatures are do able even today in the perfect set-up.

I'd guess today something like 41-43c is probably the utter limit, about 4-5c above the current record. We've just seen this year Canada smashing its record by that sort of level and based on that near miss in late June 2019, that seems in the range of possibility. 

As for Dec 2015, that month is light years ahead of anything else even from recent very mild winters. I kinda would be worried if we get even reasonably close in the near future. Dec 2018 was quite a poor month overall and yet Dec 2015 was nearly 3c above even that!

I think with Canada though they are part of the huge N American landmass which more readily heats up in summer so these kind of extremes are more easily doable. Here though we're a relatively small group of islands surrounded by water so I'd be extremely surprised if our current record got obliterated like it did in Canada. Not saying it won't but it'll be much harder to achieve than over there as there's often something that gets in the way like what happened in 2019. And after all it took 16 years for our 2003 record to be broken and this was only by a whisker.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[Weather-history]

Will we still be talking about the 13th June anomaly.......?  

[kold weather]

5 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think with Canada though they are part of the huge N American landmass which more readily heats up in summer so these kind of extremes are more easily doable. Here though we're a relatively small group of islands surrounded by water so I'd be extremely surprised if our current record got obliterated like it did in Canada. Not saying it won't but it'll be much harder to achieve than over there as there's often something that gets in the way like what happened in 2019. And after all it took 16 years for our 2003 record to be broken and this was only by a whisker.

Yes it does take a very specific set of circumstances here in the UK to pull that sort of thing off. With that being said should we pull in a decent SE airflow there is only a fairly small channel gap to pull across which effectively makes us part of a more continental style airmass for a time, especially those directly NW of that part of the channel (such as E.London for example).

Anyway as I said earlier, we nearly *did* destroy our record a couple of years ago (the month before we broke the record). to give a little context, on that day in July 2019 we had 850hpa temps somewhere between 22-23c. In late June we peaked at 24.8c! Not to mention a higher thickness. It was worked out using a Skew T chart that had it translated to the surface as I said it would have given a 41-42c temperature. Unfortunately we pulled in a ENE airflow at the very bottom layer which screwed it up. Had that airflow been ESE for example we'd have gone past 40c that week almost certainly, but that ENE kept maxes restrained to about 25c despite the monster warmth above.

Due to that very exact circumstances needed to really break a record here I tend to agree it will get broken in small incremental jumps. What has been noticeable though in recent years is how much easier it has been to record 35c+ type temperatures. These days it feels like even a glancing blow of a hot airmass from Europe gets us into that sort of range

[summer blizzard]

While there are some very good points like the potency of heat I also think some are perhaps a bit too excited about summer prospects.

If we assume continued warming then firstly I think the primary impact between Aug-April is likely to be a enhanced thermal gradiant at the mid-lattitudes and a +NAO/stronger sub-tropical high. In Sep-Oct and Feb-April this is likely to result in more UK blocking than at present and potentially a warmer, sunnier and drier pattern. In the core Nov-Jan period stronger zonality would result.

For the May-Aug period while heat potency increasing is not in question the dominant pattern is. We know from analysis that the best UK summers typically occur when relative GLAAM is high during Nina to Nino flip years, moderate to strong El Nino summers are actually typically poor for the UK so a warmer tropics does us less favours here. Equally a warmer tropical Pacific increases downstream subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. Finally a warmer Artic with less ice generates a weaker thermal gradiant and stronger blocking at high lattitudes. We may well see more potent spells and and an increased frequency of hot months but there's fair theory that westerly, wet summers could still be very dominant.