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August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    C.E.T. averages and extremes

     

    The averages are shown for the past forty years 1981-2020, and the warmest third are bold type, middle third italic and coolest third underlined.

     

    25.1 ... warmest August day (12th, 2020)

    24.9 ... previous warmest August day (1st, 1995)

    19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

    18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997

    18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

    18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

    18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

    18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

    18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

    18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

    17.8 ... tied 10th warmest 1736, 1899

    17.6 ... tied 12th warmest (with 1976 and earlier years) 1984, 2004 and 2020

    17.3 ... 1983

    17.1 ... 1991, 2019 

    17.0 ... 2002, 2016 

    16.9 ... 2013 

    16.8 ... 2001 

    16.6 ... 1989, 2000, 2009, 2012, 2018 

    16.5 ... average of 1991-2020, and 2001-2020, and 1996 

    16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 

    16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1981, 2005, 2008 

    16.1 ... 1999, 2006 

    16.0 ... 1994 

    15.9 ... 1998, 2015 

    15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

    15.7 ... average of 1659-2020 (15.651) and 1982

    15.6 ... 1987, 2017

    15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, and 2007, 2011 

    15.3 ... 1992, 2010

    15.2 ... 1988

    15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

    14.9 ... 2014

    14.6 ... 1985, 1993 

    13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- tied 16th coldest

    13.6 ... tied 10th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922)

    13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

    13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)
    13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)
    12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

     9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

     8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

    _________________________________________________________

    Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Saturday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Tuesday, 3rd of August.

    =======================================================================================

     

    EWP forecasts 

    192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2020 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

    156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2020 (2004) 

    125.2 mm __ August 2020

     83.1 mm ___ average for all years 1766 to 2020

     82.3 mm ___ average for 1991-2020

     75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010

     14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947)

     _ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2020 (1995) 

    _____________________________________________________________________

    Recent years: 2019 _ 86.8 mm ... ... 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ____

    ... ... ... 2013 _ 66.1 mm ... ... 2012 _ 94.2 mm ... ... 2011 _ 91.4 mm ... ... 2010 _ 107.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.5 mm ... ... 2008 _ 116.5 mm

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category.

    Good luck !! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Gonna try something a bit different here - going in really early - doubt it will be final entry but hope it will.

    16.8c and 90mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    18.4C and 43mm for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    15.8  C and 85 mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

    Tough one to call at present, I'm going to risk a total bust by going for the rather unusual dry and cool combination - 15.1C and 32mm please.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Very low confidence this month as my methods basically conflict punting for 15.4C and 17.5C.

    I shall pop in the middle and go for 16.5C but 110mm.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    16.8c and 78mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    14.8C and 105mm please

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      August won't be a wall to wall heatwave but I predict regular warmer than average spells interspersed by the odd Low cooling. This will send August to a warm 18.5.C but the Lows will be thundery at times so will wring out 100mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    16.6c and 83mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    16.1c cheers 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    16 hours ago, Earthshine said:

    16.2°C and 110mm please.

    I want to update my guess to 18.0°C and 70mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    16.7°C and 92.0mm for me please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    16.7c and 90 mm thank you please

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I'll plump for 17.4C and 85mm of rain thanks, Roger.

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