August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.3C, -0.2C below average, Rainfall up to 29.9mm 43.5% of the monthly average.

Likely to be down to 16.2C tomorrow the drizzle showers today may add another 0.1 or 0.2mm to the total.

So generally average summer and on the dry side

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 30th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

The month has finished on 15.8 which seems like quite a downward adjustment from what the provisional estimates were saying (16.2 the final there). 

Glad to see the back of it. 

[Don]

25 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The month has finished on 15.8 which seems like quite a downward adjustment from what the provisional estimates were saying (16.2 the final there). 

Glad to see the back of it. 

Bang on the 61-90 average.

[damianslaw]

23 minutes ago, Don said:

Bang on the 61-90 average.

A forgettable month in every way. Barely any weather seemed to happen!

[Stationary Front]

I am right in the middle of the CET zone, and finished 16.5

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A forgettable month in every way. Barely any weather seemed to happen!

Yes, August 2021 will be a month one will struggle to remember weather wise!

[NeilN]

OMG - I actually guessed correctly! 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 15.8c August 2021 shares the same mean CET with August's:

1742

1748

1760

1770

1775

1783

1788

1797

1852

1858

1886

1895

1952

1958

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

At 16.3c on the 30th, I’m very surprised it’s dropped by 0.5c regarding these so called corrections, and especially how this months gone, I honestly thought it wouldn’t of dropped below 16c....but

Maybe someone’s being on the pop if you ask me

[Roger J Smith]

Here's the amount by which all 31 days went down (or up) ...

1-15 __ -0.4, -0.7, -0.6, -0.7, -0.2, -0.2, -0.7, -0.2, -0.2, -0.5, -0.6, 0.0, -0.7, -0.1, -0.5

16-31 _ -0.9, -1.0, +1.0, +0.2, 0.0, -0.9, -0.3, -0.1, -0.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.3, -0.6, -0.9, -1.2, +0.2

So three days went up, two remained the same and the other 26 went down, quite a few by more than 0.5.

The provisional ended up at 16.2 (from the 16.3 we had after 30 days) so the actual drop was 0.4 degrees. That's a bit larger than most months but not the largest ever seen. 

[Roger J Smith]

Here's your unofficial CET leaderboard for August, J10 will confirm these but the forecasts shown with late penalties would in reality rank about one place lower after the internal scoring adjustments, and this is how I count them for "best combined" (the EWP penalties are in the more simplified scoring system used there and have the same effect). As mentioned a few days ago, this month's EWP looks like stalling out around 53 mm, at the moment the best combined appears to be tied between daniel* and weather-history (adjusted slightly after EWP posted in tables on 5th). Feb91blizzard and Reef also had good combined forecasts. 

Rank __ Fcst __ (EWP) __ Forecaster (order of entry)

_01 __ 15.8 _ 85.0 __  Jeff C ( 06 )

_02 __ 15.8 _ 88.0 _ Neil N ( 40 )

_03 __ 15.8 _ 76.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) (4th place CET for best combined, 12th EWP _ best combined forecast

_04 __ 15.9 _ 96.0 _ Weather26 ( 20 )

_05 __ 15.9 _ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 22 )

_06 __ 15.7 _100.0_ East Lancs Rain ( 30 )

_07 __ 15.7 _ 86.0 _ noname_weather ( 46 )

_08 __ 15.9 _ 95.0 _ davehsug ( 52 ) 

_09 __ 16.0 _ 97.0 _ stargazer ( 17 )

_10 __ 16.0 _126.0_ Summer18 ( 25 )

_11 __ 16.0 _ 72.0 _ weather-history ( 26 ) __ 11th CET and 6th EWP _ just missed a tie for best combined forecast

_12 __ 16.0 _ 80.0 _ sundog ( 37 )

_13 __ 16.0 _ 99.0 _ Let It Snow! ( 42 )

_14 __ 16.0 _ 75.0 _ Feb91blizzard ( 43 ) __ 14th CET and 10th EWP, third best combined forecast

_15 __ 15.6 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 47 )

_16 __ 16.1 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 14 )

_17 __ 16.1 _105.0_ rwtwm ( 23 )

_18 __ 16.2 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 28 )

_19 __ 16.2 _ 93.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 31 )

_ 20 __ 16.3 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 21 )

_21 __ 15.3 _121.8_ Roger J Smith (24)

_22 __ 16.3 _ 82.0 _ Mulzy ( 34 )

_23 __ 16.3 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( 50 ) 

_24 __ 16.4 _ 71.0 _ Reef (32) 

_25 __ 15.2 _115.0_ syed2878 (33)

_

Edited September 17, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Report on Consensus and the two Normals in CET contest

For the CET contest, we do not officially score consensus or the two recent normals. (In the EWP contest they are tracked). So here's an update which shows how our consensus (median rather than mean) and the two normals have been doing. 1991-2020 played December as 1990-2019. All I can report here is their rank in each contest, as the other scoring parameters are a bit too complex for me to recreate after the fact. The rank shown is equivalent to the highest scoring forecaster at that temperature level, some others would have ranked lower (higher rank numbers). 

The number in brackets beside the rank is the number of forecasts submitted. 

 

Robotic forecaster ____ DEC rank __ JAN rank __ FEB rank __ MAR rank __ APR rank __ MAY rank__ JUN rank__ JUL rank__AUG rank __  average rank

Consensus ____________ 27th (97) __ 16th (78) __38th (80) __ 22nd (62) ___ 30th (62) __ 31st (64) __ 14th (66) __ 25th (58) __ 26th (56) ___ 25th (69)

1981-2010 normal ____ 27th (97) ___51st (78) __ 5th (80) ___ 36th (62) ___ 37th (62) __ 48th (64) __ 28th (66) __ 30th (58) __ 24th (56) ___ 32nd (69) 

1991-2020 normal* ___ 4th (97) ____56th (78) __ 3rd (80)___ 33rd (62) ___ 48th (62) __ 51st (64) __ 31st (66) __ 28th (58) __ 26th (56) ___ 31st (69)

Consensus error _______ --0.4 _______ --0.3 ______ --2.1 _____ --0.3 ________ +1.9 ______ +1.0 ______ --0.2 ______ --0.8 ________ +0.7 _____ avg abs 0.86

1981-2010 error _______ --0.4 ________ +1.3 ______ --0.7 _____ --0.6 ________ +2.1 ______ +1.6 ______ --1.0 ______ --1.0 ________ +0.6 _____ avg abs 1.03

1991-2020 error _______ --0.1 ________ +1.6 ______ --0.2 _____ --0.5 ________ +2.6 ______ +1.8 ______ --0.8 ______ --0.9 _________+0.7 _____ avg abs 1.02

mean bias of consensus is --0.06, mean bias of 1981-2010 is +0.21, mean bias of 1991-2020 is +0.47

ANALYSIS: Our consensus continues to be slightly better than the more random test of the two recent normals, but August flat-lined and all three had almost identical

and nondescript performances near the middle of the pack. The EWP scores for these three continue to be considerably better, in the range of 8th to 12th place. 

[Roger J Smith]

Confirming that EWP tracker settled at 53 mm ... any further scoring adjustments will happen after exact value revealed on 5th. 

A provisional table of scoring was posted a few days ago. 

[J10]

Excel -> August 21 CET.xlsx

PDF -> August 2021 Summary.pdf

Monthly
3 correct entries this month,
JeffC, NeilN and Daniel* 

In total 23 were within 0.5c.

Seasonal
emmett garland reamined in the lead from last month, and without the late downward adjustment would have had the maximum 500pts.

 rwtwm (2nd) and East Lancs Rain (3rd) make up the Top 3, up from 5th and 15th respectively.

Overall

 Stargazer retains the lead from last month.

 feb1991blizzard (2nd) and nonameweather (3rd) make up the Top 3, up from 7th and 6th respectively.  

It still remains close with at least the Top 5 in contention for the overall win.

[Dancerwithwings]

I Just want to say, 

Thanks to J10 & Roger and I must add SS for ones continuous updates  

 

[rwtwm]

Wow. Second's not bad for my first full season. Only downhill from here I think.

 

Thanks very much to all those who keep this running.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Good to see below average months in this climate warming era.

Bring on a wintry season any day  

[Roger J Smith]

The final EWP is confirmed at 54.6 mm. This is just different enough from the tracker (53 mm) to scramble up a few scores here and there. I will repost the scoring in a while, in the next post. 

[Roger J Smith]

FINAL SCORING for AUGUST 2021 EWP 

The final value has been posted as 54.6 mm. This has jogged a small number of scores but has little effect on annual scoring as shown earlier.

This is the revised scoring table now ...

^ (Aug scoring) one day late penalty, often jogs the ranks relative to size of forecast errors. For example, snowray was scored from third scoring interval with late penalty, Earthshine from fourth interval without penalty. The jog will not occur if the late penalty is combined with a third or fourth entry as those have not dropped full intervals before being scored.

Also * after forecaster name in annual scoring denotes one missed forecast, ** two missed, any more than that are shown with number in brackets for number of months entered, and these are ineligible for ranking in average error (only 7/9, 8/9 or 9/9 are ranked). 

AUGUST SCORING ____________________ ANNUAL SCORING

rank _ FCSTER _______ FCST _____ PTS ______RANK _ FCSTER _________ PTS _ AVG ERR (rank)

01 _ WeatherEnth91 _ 64.0 _____ 10.00 ______ 01 _ snowray __________ 67.26 __ 27.49 (1)

02 _ Bobd29 _________ 43.0 ______ 9.77 ______ 02 _ Feb91Blizzard _____ 64.14 __ 30.46 (3)

03 _ Earthshine ______ 70.0 ______ 9.31 ______ 03 _ virtualsphere ______ 57.62 __ 32.32 (7)

04 _ snowray^ _______ 69.0 ______ 9.24 ______ 04 _ Reef* ______________ 56.99 __ 29.61 (2)

05 _ Reef ____________ 71.0 ______ 9.10 ______ 05 _ bobd29 ____________ 56.70 __ 35.39 (13)

06 _ weather-history _72.0 ______ 8.87 ______ 06 _ Don ________________ 56.66 __ 31.19 (4t)

07 _ DiagonalRedLine_75.0 ______ 8.64 ______ 07 _ Midlands Ice Age __ 55.80 __ 31.83 (6) 

08 _ Mr Maunder _____75.0 ______ 8.52 ______ 08 _ noname_weather__ 54.13 __ 34.90 (12)

09 _ Feb91Blizzard____75.0 ______ 8.40 ______ 09 _ davehsug __________ 52.31 __ 32.41 (8)

10 _ The PIT ^ ________ 75.0 ______ 7.98 ______ 10 _ Relativistic* ________ 51.05 __ 31.19 (4t)

11 _ ThunderyWintrySh 76.5 _____7.51 ______ 11 _ February1978 ______50.78 __ 35.86 (15)

12 _ Daniel* ^ _________ 76.0 ____ 7.43 ______ 12 _ Godber 1 ___________ 50.74 __ 35.14 (14)

13 _ Stationary Front __ 77.0 ____ 7.28 ______ 13 _ The PIT _____________ 49.83 __ 38.66 (21)

14 _ virtualsphere _____ 32.0 ____ 7.13 ______ 14 _ seaside60 __________ 49.37 __ 35.88 (16)

15 _ SteveB ____________ 78,0 ____ 6.83 ______ 15 _ Mr Maunder _______ 47.84 __ 37.23 (17)

16 _ February1978 _____ 79.0 ____ 6.60 ______ 16 _ federico** _________ 47.41 __ 34.67 (10)

17 _ Leo97t ____________ 80.0 ____ 6.36 ______ 17 _ Roger J Smith _______ 45.85 __ 37.98 (20)

18 _ sundog ____________80.0 ____ 6.24 ______ 18 _ Leo97t _____________ 45.76 __ 42.12 (34)

19 _ seaside60 _________ 82.0 ____ 5.92 ______ 19 _ Ed Stone ___________ 43.61 __ 37.68 (19)

20 _ Mulzy _____________ 82.0 ____ 5.80 ______ 20 _ JeffC ________________ 43.14 __ 37.46 (18)

21 _ Godber 1 _________ 83.0 ____ 5.47 ______ 21 _ DR(S)NO _____________42.30 __ 39.14 (24)

22 _ Frigid _____________ 85.0 ____ 5.24 ______ 22 _ J10 ___________________41.30 __ 39.07 (22)

23 _ JeffC ______________ 85.0 ____ 5.12 ______ 23 _ Kirkcaldy Weather* __41.07 __ 42.46 (36)

24 _ Ed Stone __________85.0 ____ 5.00 ______ 24 _ SteveB _______________ 40.61 __ 41.77 (32)

25 _ J10 ________________85.0 ____ 4.88 ______ 25 _ Mulzy ________________ 40.54 __ 39.32 (26)

26 _ noname_weather _86.0 ____ 4.38 ______ 26 _ Stationary Front _____ 40.01 __ 40.01 (27)

27 _ Midlands Ice Age __87.0 ____ 4.16 ______ 27 _ Frigid* ______________ 39.83 __ 34.71 (11)

28 _ Neil N _____________88.0 ____ 3.95 ______ 28 _ DiagonalRedLine* ___ 39.03 __ 46.21 (43)

29 _ DR(S)NO __________ 90.0 ____ 3.72 ______ 29 _ BlastFromThePast*__ 38.62 __ 43.11 (37)

30 _ Don _______________ 90.0 ____ 3.60 ______ 30 _ Polar Gael ___________ 38.53 __ 34.41 (9)

31 _ BornFromTheVoid^ 90.0 ____3.18 ______ 31 _ Jonboy* ______________38.16 __ 39.19 (25)

32 _ Polar Gael _________ 92.0 ____ 3.07 ______32 _ Daniel _______________ 38.01 __ 42.21 (35)

33 _ Emmett Garland __ 93.0 ____ 2.85 ______ 33 _ BornFromTheVoid ___ 37.82 __ 39.10 (23)

34 _ davehsug _________ 95.0 ____ 2.64 ______ 34 _ weather-history ______ 37.58 __ 41.08 (29)

35 _ Weather26 ________ 96.0 ____ 2.42 ______ 35 _  sundog** ____________37.56 __ 44.23 (39)

36 _ stargazer __________ 97.0 ____ 2.20 ______ 36 _ Walsall Wood Snow __ 37,36 __ 41.53 (30)

37 _ Let It Snow! ________ 99.0 ____ 1.99 ______ 37 _ summer blizzard _____ 37.27 __ 41.86 (33)

38 _ shillitocettwo _____ 100.0 ____ 1.77 ______ 38 _ syed2878 _____________36.37 __ 43.96 (38)

39 _ East Lancs Rain ___ 100.0 ____ 1.65 ______ 39 _ Emmett Garland _____ 35.76 __ 41.66 (31)

40 _ Timmytour _______ 105.0 ____ 1.34 _______40 _ Weather26* _________ 35.43 __ 40.88 (28)

41 _ rwtwm ___________ 105.0 ____ 1.22 _______ 41 _ shillitocettwo _______ 33.15 __ 45.08 (40)

42 _ summer blizzard _ 110.0 ____ 1.00 _______ 42 _ Timmytour _________ 30.58 __ 46.94 (44)

43 _ Walsall Wood Snow 112.0 ____0.80 ______ 43 _ Neil N _______________ 29.05 __ 46.19 (42)

44 _ syed2878 _________ 115.0 ____ 0.60 _______44 _ Norrance (5) ________ 28.36 __ 52.64 (---)

45 _ Roger J Smith _____ 121.8 ____ 0.40 _______t45 _ I Rem Atl 252 _______ 28.34 __ 54.41 (48)

46 _ summer18 _______ 126.0 ____ 0.20 ________t45 _ Earthshine* ________ 28.34 __ 46.06 (41)

47 _ IRemAtl252 ______ 136.0 ____ 0.00 _________47 _ stargazer ___________ 28.30 __ 47.81 (45)

________________________________________________ 50 _ summer18 _________ 26.15 __ 50.57 (47)

________________________________________________ 52 _ WeatherEnth91(4)__ 22.68 __ 32.63 (----)

________________________________________________54 _ Thundery WintrySh(4) 20.52 _ 27.10 (----)

_______________________________________________ 55 _ Let It Snow! ** _______ 20.05 __50.37 (46)

_______________________________________________ 58 _ rwtwm (4) ____________ 17.13 __ 32.93 (----)

_______________________________________________ 65 _ East Lancs Rain (3) ___ 13.65 __ 22.07 (----)

________________________________________________________________________________________

This completes the list for annual standings of anyone who entered August, six higher ranks in the annual 

contest did not enter August. 

SEASONAL LEADERS Summer 2021 Top 20 total scores

 1. snowray _________ 23.93 ________________ 11. weather-history _ 18.61

 2. Midlands Ice Age _22.36 ________________ 12. Don _____________ 18.58

 3. Mr Maunder _____ 21.40 ________________ 13. davehsug _______ 17.63

 4. daniel* ___________21.37 ________________ 14. Leo97t __________ 17.47

 5. noname_weather_ 20.94 ________________ 15. B87 (2 of 3) _____ 17.14

 6. Feb91Blizzard ____ 19.37 ________________ 16. DR(S)NO ________ 16.83

 7. bobd29 ___________ 19.15 ________________ 17. Reef (2 of 3) _____ 16.28

 8.  virtualsphere _____19.12 ________________ 18. Relativistic (2/3) __16.06

 9. seaside60 _________18.79 ________________ 19. Ed Stone _________15.67

10. February1978 ____18.72 _________________20. Godber1 _________15.00

 

 

[JeffC]

On 01/09/2021 at 23:15, Roger J Smith said:

Here's your unofficial CET leaderboard for August, J10 will confirm these but the forecasts shown with late penalties would in reality rank about one place lower after the internal scoring adjustments, and this is how I count them for "best combined" (the EWP penalties are in the more simplified scoring system used there and have the same effect). As mentioned a few days ago, this month's EWP looks like stalling out around 53 mm, at the moment the best combined appears to be tied between daniel* and weather-history (subject to adjustments after EWP posted in tables on 5th). Feb91blizzard and Reef also had good combined forecasts. 

Rank __ Fcst __ (EWP) __ Forecaster (order of entry)

_01 __ 15.8 _ 85.0 __  Jeff C ( 06 )

_02 __ 15.8 _ 88.0 _ Neil N ( 40 )

_03 __ 15.8 _ 76.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 ) (4th place CET for best combined, 13th EWP _ tied best combined forecast

_04 __ 15.9 _ 96.0 _ Weather26 ( 20 )

_05 __ 15.9 _ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 22 )

_06 __ 15.7 _100.0_ East Lancs Rain ( 30 )

_07 __ 15.7 _ 86.0 _ noname_weather ( 46 )

_08 __ 15.9 _ 95.0 _ davehsug ( 52 ) 

_09 __ 16.0 _ 97.0 _ stargazer ( 17 )

_10 __ 16.0 _126.0_ Summer18 ( 25 )

_11 __ 16.0 _ 72.0 _ weather-history ( 26 ) __ 11th CET and 6th EWP _ tied best combined forecast

_12 __ 16.0 _ 80.0 _ sundog ( 37 )

_13 __ 16.0 _ 99.0 _ Let It Snow! ( 42 )

_14 __ 16.0 _ 75.0 _ Feb91blizzard ( 43 ) __ 14th CET and 10th EWP, third best combined forecast

_15 __ 15.6 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 47 )

_16 __ 16.1 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 14 )

_17 __ 16.1 _105.0_ rwtwm ( 23 )

_18 __ 16.2 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 28 )

_19 __ 16.2 _ 93.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 31 )

_ 20 __ 16.3 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 21 )

_21 __ 15.3 _121.8_ Roger J Smith (24)

_22 __ 16.3 _ 82.0 _ Mulzy ( 34 )

_23 __ 16.3 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( 50 ) 

_24 __ 16.4 _ 71.0 _ Reef (32) 

_25 __ 15.2 _115.0_ syed2878 (33)

_

Been away, only just seen this, wow, I got it right!!

Next stop euromillions!