August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

I know this is before corrections, but the lowest daily figure is 15.2 and the highest 17.6.  Has there ever been a month with such little fluctuation?  Probably won't fluctuate much more between now and months end?

An exceptionally uneventful month on the cards temp wise in terms of deviation from the norm..

[Scorcher]

It's going to be around average in the end by the looks of it- and despite all the complaints over the last few weeks, statistically it's going to end up a notably warm summer.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has stalled at 53 mm and that's supposed to be the end of month total as virtually no rain is predicted through 1st of Sept 06z. 

Our monthly winner won't be known for certain until the 5th when a precise number is given, since we have WeatherEnthusiast91 at 64 mm and bobd29 at 43 mm (the latter is slightly closer to 53 mm). All other ranks are pretty much evident now since there's only one other forecast below 43 mm (virtualsphere has 32 mm which would be tied with forecasts at 75 mm at this point, will probably settle out of a tie one way or the other). 

The annual scoring remains similar, snowray is slightly ahead of Feb91Blizzard, then Reef has moved back into third, and fourth/fifth very close between virtualsphere and Don, with bobd29 in sixth. Will post some provisional scoring later this week. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It's going to be around average in the end by the looks of it- and despite all the complaints over the last few weeks, statistically it's going to end up a notably warm summer.

Notably warm summer without any notable heat.. an unusual summer in this regard, and for this reason, won't be remembered much. 

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Notably warm summer without any notable heat.. an unusual summer in this regard, and for this reason, won't be remembered much. 

We've still reached 30C here and the hot spell in July was certainly notable for northern and western areas. It will be a memorable summer for Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland I imagine.

The CET doesn't take it to account how memorable a summer is- it's purely a measure of how warm it's been. 

This is going to be a warm summer although admittedly not a sunny one for most of us.

Certainly a lot warmer than many were predicting after the cold May.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 16.5C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall still at 29.7mm 43.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 25th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th & 25th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much of a change from here on until the end of the month. May see a slight downward pull. With any downward corrections.. chance might end in the 15s.. but my guess is a very average 16.1 degrees. Apt for what will go down as an exceptionally average month overall despite the cool start. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.4C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 26th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

PRELIMINARY SCORING for AUGUST 2021 EWP 

The tracker is at 53 mm and is unlikely to change before end of the month. The final scoring will happen on the 5th when this estimate is changed to a more precise value in the tables. But based on 53.1 mm these would be the scores and the annual update for total scoring ...

^ (Aug scoring) one day late penalty, often jogs the ranks relative to size of forecast errors. For example, snowray was scored from third scoring interval with late penalty, Earthshine from fourth interval without penalty. The jog will not occur if the late penalty is combined with a third or fourth entry as those have not dropped full intervals before being scored.

Also * after forecaster name in annual scoring denotes one missed forecast, ** two missed, any more than that are shown with number in brackets for number of months entered, and these are ineligible for ranking in average error (only 7/9, 8/9 or 9/9 are ranked). 

( note this table has been updated on 5 September, see new post for revised scoring details)

AUGUST SCORING ____________________ ANNUAL SCORING

rank _ FCSTER ____ FCST ___ PTS ______ RANK _ FCSTER _____ PTS _ AVG ERR (rank)

01 _ Bobd29 _________ 43.0 _____ 10.00 ______ 01 _ snowray ___________ 67.26 __ 27.66 (1)

02 _ WeatherEnth91 _ 64.0 ______ 9.77 ______ 02 _ Feb91Blizzard _____ 63.92 __ 30.62 (3)

03 _ Earthshine ______ 70.0 ______ 9.32 ______ 03 _ virtualsphere ______ 59.14 __ 32.16 (7)

04 _ snowray^ _______ 69.0 ______ 9.24 ______ 04 _ Reef* ______________ 56.99 __ 29.80 (2)

05 _ Reef ____________ 71.0 ______ 9.10 ______ 05 _ bobd29 ____________ 56.70 __ 35.22 (13)

06 _ weather-history _72.0 ______ 8.87 ______ 06 _ Don ________________ 56.66 __ 31.36 (5)

07 _ virtualsphere ____32.0 ______ 8.65 ______ 07 _ Midlands Ice Age __ 55.80 __ 32.00 (6)

08 _ DiagonalRedLine_75.0 ______ 8.42 ______ 08 _ noname_weather__ 54.13 __ 35.07 (12)

09 _ Mr Maunder _____75.0 ______ 8.30 ______ 09 _ davehsug __________ 52.31 __ 32.58 (8)

10 _ Feb91Blizzard____75.0 ______ 8.18 ______ 10 _ Relativistic* ________ 51.05 __ 31.19 (4)

11 _ The PIT ^ ________ 75.0 ______ 7.76 ______ 11 _ February1978 ______50.78 __ 36.02 (15)

12 _ ThunderyWintrySh 76.5 ____ 7.30 ______ 12 _ Godber 1 ___________ 50.74 __ 35.31 (14)

13 _ Daniel* ^ _________ 76.0 ____ 7.22 ______ 13 _ The PIT _____________ 49.61 __ 38.82 (21)

14 _ Stationary Front __ 77.0 ____ 7.06 ______ 14 _ seaside60 __________ 49.37 __ 36.04 (16)

15 _ SteveB ____________ 78,0 ____ 6.83 ______ 15 _ Mr Maunder _______ 47.62 __ 37.40 (17)

16 _ February1978 _____ 79.0 ____ 6.60 ______ 16 _ federico** _________ 47.41 __ 34.67 (10)

17 _ Leo97t ____________ 80.0 ____ 6.36 ______ 17 _ Roger J Smith _______ 45.85 __ 38.14 (20)

18 _ sundog ____________80.0 ____ 6.24 ______ 18 _ Leo97t _____________ 45.76 __ 42.29 (34)

19 _ seaside60 _________ 82.0 ____ 5.92 ______ 19 _ Ed Stone ___________ 43.61 __ 37.84 (19)

20 _ Mulzy _____________ 82.0 ____ 5.80 ______ 20 _ JeffC ________________ 43,14 __ 37.62 (18)

21 _ Godber 1 _________ 83.0 ____ 5.47 ______ 21 _ DR(S)NO _____________42.30 __ 39.31 (25)

22 _ Frigid _____________ 85.0 ____ 5.24 ______ 22 _ J10 ___________________41.30 __ 39.23 (23)

23 _ JeffC ______________ 85.0 ____ 5.12 ______ 23 _ Kirkcaldy Weather* __41.07 __ 42.46 (36)

24 _ Ed Stone __________85.0 ____ 5.00 ______ 24 _ SteveB _______________ 40.61 __ 41.93 (32)

25 _ J10 ________________85.0 ____ 4.88 ______ 25 _ Mulzy ________________ 40.54 __ 39.49 (26)

26 _ noname_weather _86.0 ____ 4.38 ______ 26 _ Frigid* ______________ 39.83 __ 34.90 (11)

27 _ Midlands Ice Age __87.0 ____ 4.16 ______ 27 _ Stationary Front _____ 39.79 __ 40.18 (27)

28 _ Neil N _____________88.0 ____ 3.95 ______ 28 _ DiagonalRedLine* ___ 38.81 __ 46.40 (43)

29 _ DR(S)NO __________ 90.0 ____ 3.72 ______ 29 _ BlastFromThePast*__ 38.62 __ 43.11 (37)

30 _ Don _______________ 90.0 ____ 3.60 ______ 30 _ Polar Gael ___________ 38.53 __ 34.58 (9)

31 _ BornFromTheVoid^ 90.0 ____3.18 ______ 31 _ Jonboy* ______________38.16 __ 39.19 (22)

32 _ Polar Gael _________ 92.0 ____ 3.07 ______32 _ BornFromTheVoid ___ 37.82 __ 39.27 (24)

33 _ Emmett Garland __ 93.0 ____ 2.85 ______ 33 _  Daniel _______________ 37.80 __ 42.38 (35)

34 _ davehsug _________ 95.0 ____ 2.64 ______ 34 _ weather-history ______ 37.58 __ 41.24 (29)

35 _ Weather26 ________ 96.0 ____ 2.42 ______ 35 _  sundog** ____________37.56 __ 44.44 (39)

36 _ stargazer __________ 97.0 ____ 2.20 ______ 36 _ Walsall Wood Snow __ 37,36 __ 41.70 (30)

37 _ Let It Snow! ________ 99.0 ____ 1.99 ______ 37 _ summer blizzard _____ 37.27 __ 42.02 (33)

38 _ shillitocettwo _____ 100.0 ____ 1.77 ______ 38 _ syed2878 _____________36.37 __ 44.12 (38)

39 _ East Lancs Rain ___ 100.0 ____ 1.65 ______ 39 _ Emmett Garland _____ 35.76 __ 41.82 (31)

40 _ Timmytour _______ 105.0 ____ 1.34 _______40 _ Weather26* _________ 35.43 __ 41.06 (28)

41 _ rwtwm ___________ 105.0 ____ 1.22 _______ 41 _ shillitocettwo _______ 33.15 __ 45.24 (40)

42 _ summer blizzard _ 110.0 ____ 1.00 _______ 42 _ Timmytour _________ 30.58 __ 47.11 (44)

43 _ Walsall Wood Snow 112.0 ____0.80 ______ 43 _ Neil N _______________ 29.05 __ 46.36 (42)

44 _ syed2878 _________ 115.0 ____ 0.60 _______44 _ Norrance (5) ________ 28.36 __ 52.64 (---)

45 _ Roger J Smith _____ 121.8 ____ 0.40 _______t45 _ I Rem Atl 252 _______ 28.34 __ 54.58 (48)

46 _ summer18 _______ 126.0 ____ 0.20 ________t45 _ Earthshine* ________ 28.34 __ 46.25 (41)

47 _ IRemAtl252 ______ 136.0 ____ 0.00 _________47 _ stargazer ___________ 28.30 __ 47.98 (45)

_________________________________________________ 50 _ summer18 _________ 26.15 __ 50.73 (47)

_________________________________________________ 52 _ WeatherEnth91(4)__ 22.45 __ 33.00 (----)

_________________________________________________ 54 _ Thundery WintrySh(4) 20.31 _ 27.48 (----)

_________________________________________________ 55 _ Let It Snow! ** _______ 20.05 __50.59 (46)

_________________________________________________ 58 _ rwtwm (4) ____________ 17.13 __ 33.30 (----)

_________________________________________________ 65 _ East Lancs Rain (3) ___ 13.65 __ 22.57 (----)

________________________________________________________________________________________

This completes the list for annual standings of anyone who entered August, six higher ranks in the annual 

contest did not enter August. 

SEASONAL LEADERS Summer 2021 Top 20 total scores

1. snowray _________ 23.93 ___________ 6. virtualsphere _________ 20.64 

2. Midlands Ice Age _22.36 ___________ 7. bobd29 _______________ 19.38

3, Mr Maunder _____ 21.18 ___________ 8.  Feb91Blizzard ________ 19.15

4. daniel* ___________21.16 ___________ 9. seaside60 ____________ 18.79 

5. noname_weather_ 20.94 __________10. February1978 ________ 18.72

(11, weather-history , 12 Don, 13 davehsug, 14 Leo97t, 15 B87 (2/3 entered). 

(16. DR(S)NO, 17 Reef (2/3), 18 Relativistic (2/3), 19. Ed Stone, 20. Godber 1)

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield remains at 16.4C -0.2C below normal Rainfall up 29.8mm 43.3% of the monthly average.

Final figure for us looks to be between 16.2C and 16.4C. No major rainfall forecast some light rain for 31st and that's it.

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 27th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

Assuming the EWP ranks are settled, the best combined forecast will depend on where CET ends up. My estimate is that the preliminary value will end up near 16.3 and the adjusted final value near 16.1. But from 15.8 to 16.6, these would be the best combined forecasts: 

16.6 _ snowray (3rd CET, 4th EWP), 

16.5 _ Reef (5th CET, 5th EWP)

16.4 _ Reef (1st CET, 5th EWP)

16.3 _ Reef (6th CET, 5th EWP)

16.2 _ Reef (11th CET, 5th EWP) weather-history (10th CET, 6th EWP)

16.1 _ weather-history (5th CET, 6th EWP)

16.0 _ weather-history (3rd CET, 6th EWP) (Feb91Blizzard 5th CET, 10th EWP)

15.9 _ weather-history (6th CET, 6th EWP)

15.8 _ weather-history (11th CET, 6th EWP) daniel* (4th CET, 13th EWP)

(note that for CET I apply a one-rank deduction for late forecasts, the official list may show snowray and/or daniel* one rank higher but after the penalties are applied within the scoring system, it amounts to a one or even two rank adjustment). 

Our three top scoring EWP forecasts all had CET estimates in the 18.0 to 18.8 range. 

Edited August 28, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

On 25/08/2021 at 22:15, damianslaw said:

Notably warm summer without any notable heat.. an unusual summer in this regard, and for this reason, won't be remembered much. 

Definitely not in London and south both summer 2020 and 2019 warmer (Heathrow). Mean temps are broadly 1C below tmax is significantly below average here by 2C this August meanwhile nights +0.2C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.3C  -0.3C below normal. Rainfall 29.8mm 43.3% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 28th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.3C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall unchanged

Looking like 16.2C will be the landing spot. Just noticed provisionally we've recorded the warmest nights for the summer since our records began.

[damianslaw]

Static CET.. be interesting to note how many other months have produced such minimum variation as August 2021. 

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 29th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[Sunny76]

On 15/08/2021 at 19:33, North-Easterly Blast said:

Here is a list of Augusts that had a warmer second half than the first half, in reverse order since World War 2:

2019, 2017, 2016, 2008, 2005, 1987, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1976, 1971, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1955, 1949, 1947.

It is striking what a rare event warmer second halves of August than the first half has been since the 1980s, whereas it had happened statistically, roughly over a third of the time prior to 1987 since World War 2.  That said it has happened a few times since 2005 whereas not at all between 1987 and 2005 - which is very much an incredible statistic!

 

1987 seems to be the marker of when things started to shift. Milder winters, warmer than average months, and the warmer second half of Augusts didn’t happen again until 2005. 
 

As a teen, I remember some warm or hot days in the second half of August,  but it was probably my memory deceiving me. 1990 and 95 had hot August days, but the best weather must have happened in the first two weeks. 

[Sunny76]

On 29/08/2021 at 02:44, Daniel* said:

Definitely not in London and south both summer 2020 and 2019 warmer (Heathrow). Mean temps are broadly 1C below tmax is significantly below average here by 2C this August meanwhile nights +0.2C.

London and the south have had a cool cloudy summer, with humid cloudy spells. It’s been a rotten summer. 
 

 

[Sunny76]

On 26/08/2021 at 07:16, Scorcher said:

We've still reached 30C here and the hot spell in July was certainly notable for northern and western areas. It will be a memorable summer for Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland I imagine.

The CET doesn't take it to account how memorable a summer is- it's purely a measure of how warm it's been. 

This is going to be a warm summer although admittedly not a sunny one for most of us.

Certainly a lot warmer than many were predicting after the cold May.

For you yes. For people down south, it’s been atrocious. 

[Relativistic]

On 26/08/2021 at 19:48, damianslaw said:

Not expecting much of a change from here on until the end of the month. May see a slight downward pull. With any downward corrections.. chance might end in the 15s.. but my guess is a very average 16.1 degrees. Apt for what will go down as an exceptionally average month overall despite the cool start. 

A thoroughly uninteresting month, especially when the rest of the year has been such a see-saw. First month this year that will come in close to average CET-wise.

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Relativistic said:

A thoroughly uninteresting month, especially when the rest of the year has been such a see-saw. First month this year that will come in close to average CET-wise.

Yes seems to have swapped places with September this year when I often use the refrain 'wake me up when September ends'..