August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[February1978]

17.0C and 79mm please

[J10]

16.7c and 85mm

 

[Derecho]

16.3C please

[Duncan McAlister]

18.5 for me please.

[davehsug]

Damn. 15.9c and 95mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries for August 2021 CET and EWP contests

CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order) _____________________ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order)

18.8 _ 64.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 01 ) ______________ 16.4 _ 71.0 _ Reef ( 32 )

18.5 _100.0_ Shillitocettwo ( 12 ) _______________________ 16.45_ 85.0 _ consensus

18.5 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 51 ) ___________________ 16.4 _ 75.6 _ 1981-2010 average

18.4 _ 43.0 _ Bobd29 ( 04 ) _____________________________ 16.3 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 21 )

18.0 _ 70.0 _ Earthshine ( 15 ) __________________________ 16.3 _ 82.0 _ Mulzy ( 34 )

17.6 _ 82.0 _ seaside60 ( 44 ) ___________________________ 16.3 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( 50 ) 

17.5 _ 90.0 _ BornFromTheVoid ( L1-3 ) _________________16.2 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 28 )

17.4 _ 85.0 _ Ed Stone ( 19 ) ____________________________ 16.2 _ 93.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 31 )

17.3 _ 76.5 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 27 ) __________ 16.1 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 14 )

17.2 _ 90.0 _ Don ( 38 ) _________________________________ 16.1 _105.0_ rwtwm ( 23 )

17.2 _ ------ _ Man Without Beard ( 39 ) _________________ 16.0 _ 97.0 _ stargazer ( 17 )

17.1 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 03 ) _______________________ 16.0 _126.0_ Summer18 ( 25 )

17.1 _112.0_ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _________________ 16.0 _ 72.0 _ weather-history ( 26 )

17.0 _ 77.0 _ Stationary Front ( 02 ) _____________________ 16.0 _ 99.0 _ Let It Snow! ( 42 )

17.0 _ 79.0 _ February1978 ( 48 ) _______________________ 16.0 _ 75.0 _ Feb91blizzard ( 43 )

17.0 _ 75.0 _ The PIT ( L1-4 ) ____________________________ 16.0 _ 80.0 _ sundog ( 37 )

16.9 _ 87.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 36 ) ____________________ 15.9 _ 96.0 _ Weather26 ( 20 )

16.9 _ 75.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 41 ) _________________________15.9 _ 80.0 _ Leo97t ( 22 )

16.8 _ 78.0 _ Steve B ( 09 ) ______________________________ 15.9 _ 95.0 _ davehsug ( 52 ) 

16.7 _ 92.0 _ Polar Gael ( 16 ) ___________________________15.8 _ 85.0 _ Jeff C ( 06 )

16.7 _ 90.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 18 ) _____________________________15.8 _ 88.0 _ Neil N ( 40 )

16.7 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 45 ) __________________________15.8 _ 76.0 _ daniel* ( L1-1 )

16.7 _ 85.0 _ J 10  ( 49 ) __________________________________15.7 _100.0_ East Lancs Rain ( 30 )

16.6 _ 83.0 _ Godber 1 ( 13 ) ____________________________ 15.7 _ 86.0 _ noname_weather ( 46 )

16.6 _ 69.0 _ snowray ( L1-2 ) ___________________________ 15.6 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 47 )

16.5 _ 85.0 _ Frigid ( 05 ) ________________________________ 15.3 _121.8_ Roger J Smith ( 24 )

16.5 _110.0_ Summer Blizzard ( 08 ) ____________________ 15.2 _115.0_ syed2878 ( 33 )

16.5 _ 75.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 29 ) ____________________ 15.1 _136.0_ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 11 )

16.5 _ 82.3 _ 1991-2020 average ________________________ 15.1 _ 32.0 _ virtualsphere ( 07 )

_________________________________________________________ 14.8 _105.0_ Timmytour ( 10 )

 

52 on-time entries plus four that were one day late (so far), 56 forecasts total,  consensus 16.45

=== ** ================================ - ================================ ** ===

=== ** ================================ - ================================ ** ===

EWP forecasts in order 

136_IRem ... 126_sum18 ... 121.8_RJS ... 115_syed ... 112_WWS ... 110_SB ... 105_Tim, rwt

100_shil, ELR ...  99_LIS ... 97_star ... 96_wx26 ... 95_dave ... 93_EG ... 92_PG ... 90_DR(S), Don, BFTV^

 88_NN ... 87_MIA ... 86_non ... 85_Frig, Jeff, EdS, J10 ... 83_godb ... 82.3_91-20 ... 82_sea, Mul ... 80_leo, sun

 79_Feb78 ... 78_Ste ... 77_SF ... 76.5_TWS ... 76_dan^  .. 75.6_81-20 .. 75_DRL, MrM, Feb91, PIT^ ... 72_wx-his

 71_Reef ... 70_Earth ...  69_snow^ ... 64_we91 ... 43_bob ... 32_virt

___________________________________

43 on time entries, plus four (so far) marked one day late ^ ... 47 total entries, consensus 85.0 mm. 

Edited August 1, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Daniel*]

Urgh late 15.8C and 76mm thanks 

[snowray]

Late one from me, don’t time fly. 16.6c and 69mm please. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Late again.
17.5C and 90mm, thanks.

[The PIT]

Oops I'm late 17C and 75mm of rain.

[Summer Sun]

15.8c to the 1st

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.8c to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Average and Extreme values of the CET 1772-2020 with 1981-2010 averages

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2020 __ MIN 1772-2020 ___ Running CET extremes 1772-2020

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888 ________ 24.9 _ 1995 ____ 11.9 _ 1888

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822 ________ 24.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.2 _1822,1865

_03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 24.3 _ 1995 ____ 11.7 _ 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 23.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.0 _ 1865

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 22.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1865

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860 ___ 21.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1812

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 ________ 21.5 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892 ________ 21.3 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 24.0 2020 _____ 10.8 1902 ________ 21.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 25.1 2020 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 21.0*_ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881 ________ 21.0*_ 1975 ____ 12.7 _1812, 1912

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912 ________ 20.8 _ 1975 ____ 12.6  _1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 ________ 20.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888 ________ 20.4 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 ________ 20.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 1912

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 ________ 20.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.7 2019 ____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864_ 20.0 _1995 ____13.0_1912

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8.8 1864 ________ 19.9 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890 ___ 19.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919 ________ 19.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 ________ 19.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1804&2008__ 9.5 1890 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

  

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912

__________________________________________________________________

* The highest running CET reached in 2020 was 19.7 (12th, 13th) below the 1975 records.

The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. 

1991-2020 daily averages and running means 

_01 __ 17.4 __ 17.4 _____ 11 __ 17.0 __ 17.2 ___ 21 __ 16.6 __ 16.9 ___ 31 ___ 14.8 __ 16.5

_02 __ 17.2 __ 17.3 _____ 12 __ 17.1 __ 17.2 ___ 22 __ 16.7 __ 16.9 

_03 __ 17.3 __ 17.3 _____ 13 __ 16.3 __ 17.1 ___ 23 __ 16.5 __ 16.9 

_04 __ 17.2 __ 17.3 _____ 14 __ 16.5 __ 17.1 ___ 24 __ 15.8 __ 16.9 

_05 __ 17.6 __ 17.3 _____ 15 __ 16.7 __ 17.1 ___ 25 __ 16.0 __ 16.8  

_06 __ 17.6 __ 17.4 _____ 16 __ 16.4 __ 17.0 ___ 26 __ 15.9 __ 16.8

_07 __ 17.3 __ 17.4 _____ 17 __ 16.7 __ 17.0 ___ 27 __ 15.4 __ 16.7

_08 __ 16.9 __ 17.3 _____ 18 __ 16.7 __ 17.0 ___ 28 __ 15.4 __ 16.7

_09 __ 16.9 __ 17.3 _____ 19 __ 16.6 __ 17.0 ___ 29 __ 15.0 __ 16.6

_10 __ 17.0 __ 17.2 _____ 20 __ 16.6 __ 16.9 ___ 30 __ 15.1 __ 16.6  

Edited August 2, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

15.8c to the 1st

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 15.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.8c to the 1st

Expecting a very different start to last August, which was one of the hottest starts on record I think.. this one looking cool.

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 2nd

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 15.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.5c to the 2nd

[Summer Sun]

15.4c to the 3rd

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 15.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

Edited August 4, 2021 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 4th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 15.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[damianslaw]

Can only see it falling in the days ahead, low maxima but somewhat cancelled out by milder minima. A cool start to August. Notably so for some.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can only see it falling in the days ahead, low maxima but somewhat cancelled out by milder minima. A cool start to August. Notably so for some.

It has been much more anomalous on continent. Coldest opening to August in France since 2002… 4C below normal.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.7C -1.0C below normal. Rainfall 4.3mm 6.3% of the average.

Continuing the overall low rainfall of the summer here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

First report on the EWP this month ... about 8 mm so far (3 mm to 4th, about 5 mm grid average on 5th). 25-30 mm estimate for ten days and another 20-30 suggested for days 11-16 (heavy rainfall potential near end of the run may not have much credibility at this point though). 

That would take the EWP to around 60 mm by the 23rd.

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 5th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 15.8c to the 1st
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[damianslaw]

On 05/08/2021 at 23:23, Daniel* said:

It has been much more anomalous on continent. Coldest opening to August in France since 2002… 4C below normal.

That is a NW -SE split!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.9C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 5.8mm 8.4% of the monthly average.

Probably around average by next Friday

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 6th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.0c to the 6th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 15.9 -0.8C, Rainfall 9.9mm 14.4% of the monthly average.