Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

I have to say that there was a beautiful autumnal feel to the start of the day at 04:30 this morning.

Single digit minima, heavy dew on the car, and the first signs of the mist just starting to form across the fields on my drive into work.

[summer blizzard]

Most negative -QBO value since August 2018. 

Least negative ONI value since JJA 2020.

Most negative July PDO value since 2012.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

20 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Most negative -QBO value since August 2018. 

Least negative ONI value since JJA 2020.

Most negative July PDO value since 2012.

What does that mean in layman's terms for the UK sb?

[stainesbloke]

Foggy and chilly morning here in Prague, feels quite autumnal and a taste of the upcoming season. Some nice daytime temperatures in the mid-20’s °C to come though.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn's roaring ahead in the garden. Had our first blackberries yesterday - sweet and juicy !!

Plums, pears and apples are swelling by the day. Hawthorn and sloes and just about to turn and show us some colour. Lords & Ladies in the undergrowth.

Nearly there.....

[Azazel]

If we get some nice settled mellow days in Autumn, I love it - but if it's windy and wet following this miserable summer, I'm gonna puke.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

If we get some nice settled mellow days in Autumn, I love it - but if it's windy and wet following this miserable summer, I'm gonna puke.

Agree, settled, sunny by day, foggy/frosty by night weather in autumn is lovely. I hope any severe windstorms keep away until most of the leaves have fallen

[summer blizzard]

20 hours ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

What does that mean in layman's terms for the UK sb?

Nothing directly because no one thing ever dominates all others but generally speaking a -PDO has a weak correlation to a -AO. A -ONI correlates to a -PDO and greater late Autumn/early winter -AO. A -QBO has a weak correlation with weaker zonal winds. A -QBO/-ONI typically enhances Atlantic hurricane activity in peak season.

Basically it's a good sign for a blocked Oct-Dec period.

Edited August 6, 2021 by summer blizzard

[cheeky_monkey]

although it was 33c yesterday .....the leaves are starting to turn here 

[summer blizzard]

39 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

although it was 33c yesterday .....the leaves are starting to turn here 

How can leaves be turning or have you had a notable cold/frosty period already between heat. Are we sure it's not drought stress.

Edited August 6, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Turnedoutniceagain]

12c and murky this morning. September is 23 days away and I can almost smell it

[cheeky_monkey]

On 06/08/2021 at 09:02, summer blizzard said:

How can leaves be turning or have you had a notable cold/frosty period already between heat. Are we sure it's not drought stress.

its not entirely drought stress..there are two trees in a nearby seniors home garden that always turn first ..usually notice it somewhere between the 15-20th August..maybe the dryness this year has meant they have turned a week or so earlier than normal..lots of trees start to turn anyway by the 3rd & 4th weeks of August 

Edited August 9, 2021 by cheeky_monkey

[summer blizzard]

23 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its not entirely drought stress..there are two trees in a nearby seniors home garden that always turn first ..usually notice it somewhere between the 15-20th August..maybe the dryness this year has meant they have turned a week or so earlier than normal..lots of trees start to turn anyway by the 3rd & 4th weeks of August 

Is that normally due to temperature drops during the period, i would have thought Canada was still warmer (or perhaps those trees are softer than many here).

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Is that normally due to temperature drops during the period, i would have thought Canada was still warmer (or perhaps those trees are softer than many here).

growing season is much shorter here..i have noticed the grass stops growing from about mid September even if the weather remains warm well into October..also the weather can descend rapidly from summer into winter in a matter of days sometimes..Sept 2018 was a classic example it had an average temp of just 5.5c with snow and frost prevalent..so surely would make sense for trees etc to loose their leaves much earlier than the UK

[Daniel*]

Feels extremely autumnal in London today not first such days either 16C and very damp a further 17mm today on washout summer, really noticing the loss of light in evenings the cloud makes it so much worse.

[Christopher]

Drawing in quickly here in the central belt of Scotland.  

The rain of the last few days have made the dullness after 8:30pm so much more noticeable. 
Sunset at 21:06 but by the end of the month 53 minutes earlier. Its creeping up fast.

A couple of tree’s here are slowly showing their autumnal colours but I believe this is due to infection.

I enjoy all seasons but the colours of Autumn and those misty mornings are a great sight to see

[Azazel]

Autumn started in May here. 

[East Lancs Rain]

16 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

growing season is much shorter here..i have noticed the grass stops growing from about mid September even if the weather remains warm well into October..also the weather can descend rapidly from summer into winter in a matter of days sometimes..Sept 2018 was a classic example it had an average temp of just 5.5c with snow and frost prevalent..so surely would make sense for trees etc to loose their leaves much earlier than the UK

We get warmer months in winter in the UK sometimes!   No sign of autumn here, trees still green, although it's more of a dark green that you typically get in late summer. The temp did get down to 5C on one night last week here, and Thursday - Sunday was very dull, very wet and very cool, an inch of rain of Sunday with maxes only 15-17C.

[simshady]

Please, please, please, weather gods, let autumn come early this year.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, simshady said:

Please, please, please, weather gods, let autumn come early this year.

Has felt autumn since Saturday here!

[summer blizzard]

As I saw Crew discussion the prospects in another thread I thought I’d provide him the second year ONI analogies for Q4 (so roll the winter forward)..

Weak

1974

2008

Moderate

1955

1971

1984

1999

2011

2017

 

And QBO years in Q4 with -1 standard deviation since 1979.

1979

1984

1989

1996

1998

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2012

2014

2017

1984, 2011 and 2017 notable here.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

16 days to go, nearly there troops. Could be a bit of a mini-heatwave over the BH at the end of the month, but apart from that, Autumn's in full swing here, even had our first Daddy Long-legs last night !!

 

Just waiting on my first autumnal mist in the valley behind us.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 09/08/2021 at 18:37, cheeky_monkey said:

its not entirely drought stress..there are two trees in a nearby seniors home garden that always turn first ..usually notice it somewhere between the 15-20th August..maybe the dryness this year has meant they have turned a week or so earlier than normal..lots of trees start to turn anyway by the 3rd & 4th weeks of August 

Yeah happens to some trees here the same time every year- late August they start to turn. Yet some people refuse to believe it to be the case. It happens every year, no idea why it comes as a shock to some people. It's the inverse of budding that happens late Feb/beginning of March.

Edited August 15, 2021 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

Started to note subtle change afoot in mother nature.. the slow descent out of summer into autumn.. the key trigger is rapidly diminishing daylight which becomes noticeable from here on in. 

It's not though until around the equinox the weather shakes off the final embers of summer.

[East Lancs Rain]

On 11/08/2021 at 20:59, simshady said:

Please, please, please, weather gods, let autumn come early this year.

Well autumn has been here since Saturday. Apart from Monday it's been damp, overcast and drizzly with temps in the mid teens. Actually had to put the fire on this morning!  

 

August often just feels like a warmer version of autumn a lot of the time.