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Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
18 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

Why are lows so much milder in the autumn compared to in the spring?
You’d think it would be the other way round considering the fact that the nights are longer in the autumn!

Heat lag from summer.  Conversely, you have cold lag from winter in spring, meaning it's much colder than autumn.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Really enjoyed the mild and settled start to Autumn myself. Thoughts inevitably turning to winter as the nights draw in. 

As others have mentioned, extreme cold spells this year have lost their appeal, mainly because of the energy and supply chain crisis. 

I'd still take a decent cold spell, over Christmas ideally. Then I'd be satisfied with average rainfall and above average temps for the balance of the autumn/winter.

Now watch us get snowed in for four months!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Number 23 said:

Really enjoyed the mild and settled start to Autumn myself. Thoughts inevitably turning to winter as the nights draw in. 

As others have mentioned, extreme cold spells this year have lost their appeal, mainly because of the energy and supply chain crisis. 

I'd still take a decent cold spell, over Christmas ideally. Then I'd be satisfied with average rainfall and above average temps for the balance of the autumn/winter.

Now watch us get snowed in for four months!

Mmm I've noted how 'crisis' times - well if the media are to be believed, we seem to be in a perpetual crisis of one sort or other.. have coincided with quite cold times in recent decades, exception the energy crisis of 1973-74 mind.

78-79, 81-82, 90-91, 08-10 all came during 'hard' economic times. Even last winter whilst not especially cold, coincided with 'hard' times - depths of the pandemic. It would be sod's law this winter is a hard one in this respect!

If mild is the theme, please can it be of the dry calm variety, not the storm, flooding category - the latter is the last thing we need!

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm I've noted how 'crisis' times - well if the media are to be believed, we seem to be in a perpetual crisis of one sort or other.. have coincided with quite cold times in recent decades, exception the energy crisis of 1973-74 mind.

78-79, 81-82, 90-91, 08-10 all came during 'hard' economic times. Even last winter whilst not especially cold, coincided with 'hard' times - depths of the pandemic. It would be sod's law this winter is a hard one in this respect!

If mild is the theme, please can it be of the dry calm variety, not the storm, flooding category - the latter is the last thing we need!

Totally with you on that!

Although the promise of a '91 type spell (my personal favourite) would make up for the elevated gas bill! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
9 hours ago, TheOgre said:

Why are lows so much milder in the autumn compared to in the spring?
You’d think it would be the other way round considering the fact that the nights are longer in the autumn!

SSTs, and in autumn the northern hemisphere in general has more heat left over from the summer months.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

SSTs, and in autumn the northern hemisphere in general has more heat left over from the summer months.

October is milder than April and many a time a par with May.. a fact that surprises most people.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

That's why I much prefer swimming in the sea in autumn. Warm(ish) water and low UV compared to colder water and strong UV

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 16/10/2021 at 00:28, Don said:

Heat lag from summer.  Conversely, you have cold lag from winter in spring, meaning it's much colder than autumn.

Indeed, and it's the opposite for highs. Warmer highs as spring progresses and vice versa, with inversions become more common by November (fat chance in most Novembers mind lol).

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Indeed, and it's the opposite for highs. Warmer highs as spring progresses and vice versa, with inversions become more common by November (fat chance in most Novembers mind lol).

Yes, it seemed that cold inversions used to be common in November when I was a lad.  I always associated Novembers with cold and frosty/foggy weather.  Not these days!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 16/10/2021 at 12:07, Don said:

Yes, it seemed that cold inversions used to be common in November when I was a lad.  I always associated Novembers with cold and frosty/foggy weather.  Not these days!

It still happens, I have many memories of cold frosty spells in November too, but since I started my own weather records November and December have been the most reliably Atlantic-dominated months. Have had some decent inversions in December and especially January over the years. Winter 05/06 was great for this with inversion highs in all months, even Feb when they're less common.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It still happens, I have many memories of cold frosty spells in November too, but since I started my own weather records November and December have been the most reliably Atlantic-dominated months. Have had some decent inversions in December and especially January over the years. Winter 05/06 was great for this with inversion highs in all months, even Feb when they're less common.

Would be nice to have some inversion-type weather in November. So far, Autumn has been quite mundane here, no fog, one slight frost, a bit of rain here and there, and some sunny spells. The sunshine has been very pleasant, I’d like to see more foggy and frosty weather as we edge towards winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 16/10/2021 at 12:30, stainesbloke said:

Would be nice to have some inversion-type weather in November. So far, Autumn has been quite mundane here, no fog, one slight frost, a bit of rain here and there, and some sunny spells. The sunshine has been very pleasant, I’d like to see more foggy and frosty weather as we edge towards winter. 

Agreed. I’ve not minded the mild autumn so far as spring was so chilly, and although April was very sunny, May was much more October like than this month is being 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Been lots of nice days at home in Devon recently, 7 of the last 8 have been mostly sunny... up here in Lancaster we've just had 1 sunny day (yesterday), and a lot of grey.

Tomorrow looks like a write off with drizzle the whole day while it looks nice at home again. I guess they do say it's grim up north lol.

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Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire
  • Location: South Derbyshire
21 hours ago, MP-R said:

It still happens, I have many memories of cold frosty spells in November too, but since I started my own weather records November and December have been the most reliably Atlantic-dominated months. Have had some decent inversions in December and especially January over the years. Winter 05/06 was great for this with inversion highs in all months, even Feb when they're less common.

There was a week of near constant fog here in November 2015 I think it was. Can’t remember any other time with so much fog.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 17/10/2021 at 10:15, TheOgre said:

There was a week of near constant fog here in November 2015 I think it was. Can’t remember any other time with so much fog.

Yes the opening few days were very foggy here after the positively springlike first day. Oddly, it was a mild fog.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Yes the opening few days were very foggy here after the positively springlike first day. Oddly, it was a mild fog.

Recent Novembers have brought a mixed bag..some cold frosty weather at times. 2016 notably so.. a key factor why there is less fog in general in the winter months now than say 30 years ago even is down to much cleaner air - less pollutants from industry.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
On 16/10/2021 at 10:26, damianslaw said:

October is milder than April and many a time a par with May.. a fact that surprises most people.

Though probably more equable as well - certainly we seem to get less days above 20 in October compared to April, though less below 10 too.

And of course (regarding the May comparison) 25C+ is very uncommon in October, but very common in May - perhaps it even happened this year, at the very end of the month.

Another factor in spring's favour is what you're used to. 15C in March feels warm bordering on hot, 15C in September feels cold bordering on freezing! Sun strength, significantly greater in spring, exacerbates the warmer feeling of the spring season too; the first 21C day, normally in April, feels decidedly hot, and like full-on summer as it's accompanied by a strong sun. A 21C day in October while feeling balmy and pleasant would rarely feel hot.

And of course there are no days in spring when the sun sets at just after 16:00 local time, as it does at the very end of November! Indeed at the end of May it might just make it past 21:00 local time here.

Generally I think it's fair to say April is the more 'interesting' of the two: more chance of summer-like conditions, and also more chance of snow. More chance of prolonged settled sunny weather and less of dull, damp Atlantic clag too!

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Recent Novembers have brought a mixed bag..some cold frosty weather at times. 2016 notably so.. a key factor why there is less fog in general in the winter months now than say 30 years ago even is down to much cleaner air - less pollutants from industry.

Though probably less settled winters compared to the 1980s is a factor, remembering that fog is associated with settled weather generally. Many 80s winters were relatively settled: only 1983/4 and 1987/8 stand out as both mild and wet overall. And even with those, I seem to recall Feb 1984 as pretty anticyclonic, the sort of month that would probably have thrown up quite a bit of fog.

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Yes the opening few days were very foggy here after the positively springlike first day. Oddly, it was a mild fog.

Not sure how November 1st can be called springlike! 

Indian Summer-like at a pinch (I do remember in some parts the temps were truly extreme, but here it was just dull and misty) but in no way could that time of year be compared to spring. I always think of around Jan 21st as the earliest that you can start comparisons to spring: the days have to be drawing out (so that it's noticeably lighter than recent weeks) and there needs to be at least some signs of spring in nature (snowdrops, crocuses perhaps if they're early).

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire

Current GFS 06Z a bit more interesting than Friday's runs.

This week an absolute grotfest (until Wednesday, perhaps Thursday depending on how quickly the clearer N or NW winds get in)  but - the final week of October has fairly high pressure in the south, so while very cloudy, I'm sure, at least it could be dry and maybe not too dull. With high temps for the time of year it might therefore not be too unpleasant. Then a northerly plunge at the turn of the month.

Also the disturbance for next weekend looks like a slacker trough/low, so while it will no doubt give some rain, it might not be too unpleasant particularly if its centre slides south of here and we're on the northern edge. I often find that rain on the northern edge of a slack low isn't too bad, primarily because it's not too heavy and the cloud base isn't too low.

The knife-edge at the moment is will it keep out of the way during Saturday daylight hours.

Friday looks a relatively good day. There seems to be an infuriating S*'d's law that the weather is always much better on Friday than the following weekend!

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Though probably less settled winters compared to the 1980s is a factor, remembering that fog is associated with settled weather generally. Many 80s winters were relatively settled: only 1983/4 and 1987/8 stand out as both mild and wet overall. And even with those, I seem to recall Feb 1984 as pretty anticyclonic, the sort of month that would probably have thrown up quite a bit of fog.

Here in the Lake District, low level cloud in the valleys resembles fog anyway..  a thick mist.. today is an example. Dire weather..

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Here in the Lake District, low level cloud in the valleys resembles fog anyway..  a thick mist.. today is an example. Dire weather..

One of those days when you're glad you live in the south.. though I am not so sure later in the week, when you'll be in the clear polar air while we're still stuck under the frontal system.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
On 17/10/2021 at 13:31, Summer8906 said:

Not sure how November 1st can be called springlike! 

Indian Summer-like at a pinch (I do remember in some parts the temps were truly extreme, but here it was just dull and misty) but in no way could that time of year be compared to spring. I always think of around Jan 21st as the earliest that you can start comparisons to spring: the days have to be drawing out (so that it's noticeably lighter than recent weeks) and there needs to be at least some signs of spring in nature (snowdrops, crocuses perhaps if they're early).

I say springlike because there had been some cool/chilly weather at times during the October and some unsettled windy wet weather in the final week, then the weekend of the 31st Oct / 01st November threw up a weekend that felt very similar to that first spell in March or late Feb when it's warm but the sun isn't overly strong. Too late in the year to feel at all summery.

Jan 21st is of course is much closer to the shortest day than Nov 01st.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
On 17/10/2021 at 21:35, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Genuine taste of Autumn this morning when I rolled back the curtains. Gloomy. Wet. Not really all that cold but depressingly a taste of things to come for the next four months. 

I saw the same, at least in terms of appearance this morning and it was drizzling and very overcast. Looking out the window, It looked like late autumn in the UK if you ignored the exotic plants - palms, banana. bougainvillea etc.

Steeping outside though it was close to 20C at 9am with the full overcast cloud cover. Inside the house it was still quite dark and needed a side lamp on.  The thick cloud gradually thinned a bit eventually to occasionally allow very brief filtered sun but it stayed very cloudy pretty much throughout the day.. It still got to 24/25C this afternoon despite the thick cloud and felt like sup tropical velvet

Edited by Tamara
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