Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Nick L]

39 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Nick it's an interesting comment, as over the last couple of months we have seen many (not citing you) forecasters in the Northern Hemisphere say "Signs are there for a front end loaded winter...". I do wonder how much longer these people will keep going with as time is really running out now.

I will add that long range forecasting is far from my forte! But you can't argue with current output. 

The minimum temperature anomaly for the last few months must be exceptionally high, it's been such a struggle to even get cool nights, let alone cold ones.

[MP-R]

On 20/10/2021 at 10:58, Nick L said:

Sat by the lake in freshers week at uni in low sunshine and high 20s, with bottles of cider. What a week.

The warm evenings with it dark by 8pm were quite surreal. More like holidays in the Med!

[Arctic Hare]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

End of September you mean, into October. Stunning spell of weather it was.

Oh yeah, one of the better known statistical "near misses" too, with a new UK October record max of 29.9 °C at Gravesend on 1st October. Absolutely extraordinary few days.

[mb018538]

Another nice day here now after the deluge earlier. Very mild at 18c and some sunny spells too.

This autumn has been a bit of payback for the cold spring we had this year. I'm glad we're nearly through October and it hasn't been cold yet!

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another nice day here now after the deluge earlier. Very mild at 18c and some sunny spells too.

This autumn has been a bit of payback for the cold spring we had this year. I'm glad we're nearly through October and it hasn't been cold yet!

Would much prefer it to have been reversed! 

Having said that, now the rain and showers have cleared it's a reasonable afternoon. Much clearer and crisper with some decent cloudscapes in the sunshine.

[Sforzando]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I will add that long range forecasting is far from my forte! But you can't argue with current output. 

The minimum temperature anomaly for the last few months must be exceptionally high, it's been such a struggle to even get cool nights, let alone cold ones.

Given all the record cold minima in April it feels like a weird kind of payback.

[Freeze]

Warm muggy and windy here, 17c and sunny spells after a few morning showers. 

[MP-R]

Much fresher here today hovering at 14 degrees. The highest temp today was in the early hours again.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

When we had high pressure it was overcast. Now that we have low pressure the sun is out.  

Only in the UK.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[mb018538]

This cell on the radar around lunchtime gave a likely tornado in the Widnes area. Footage on social media of quite a fair bit of damage.

Various agencies like TORRO etc forecast the possibility of a tornado today, and they weren't wrong! 

[Mapantz]

I reckon after this current batch of rain, October will be the wettest month I've recorded this year, strangely.

[Simon M]

There's a real difference in the feel of things now, much cooler and fresher with clearer air which is in sharp contrast to the almost soupy humidity of last night.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I reckon after this current batch of rain, October will be the wettest month I've recorded this year, strangely.

It’s only rained a handful of times. Personally I prefer this. A couple horridly wet days followed by three weeks of dry whether. Much better than days of drizzle.
 

Actually if we could arrange for 50mm overnight every other Sunday it only needs to 26times a year to give us more than enough to get by and I’d never look like a drowned rat again like I do now after running back to my car after work …

[Simon M]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s only rained a handful of times. Personally I prefer this. A couple horridly wet days followed by three weeks of dry whether. Much better than days of drizzle.
 

Actually if we could arrange for 50mm overnight every other Sunday it only needs to 26times a year to give us more than enough to get by and I’d never look like a drowned rat again like I do now after running back to my car after work …

Well personally I hope it's unsettled and blustery for the next few weeks, with a big change sometime in mid-November with a huge drop in temperature with the arrival of wintery weather that persists until some time in the following March.

[Summer8906]

A surprisingly humid day today, particularly in the morning when around 0900-1000 it was decidedly oppressive - more in fact than yesterday. Last night's front did little to make things fresher - though the air was at least clearer than yesterday. Reminiscent of an unsettled, but not especially cool, spell in early August.

Perhaps temps are slightly lower but the air is more saturated with moisture.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

11 hours ago, Downburst said:

Thursdays northerly is a blink and you'll miss it affair, ridge soon back in and followed a setup that builds into a sustained long fetch south westerly well into next week, bottom chart is next Thursday 850's ECM

Might be a very sustained spell of wet weather for some unlucky people with the associated font there, although obviously too far out, but general picture is the point. 

 

Aside from if and where the rain comes, I'd be surprised 20c isn't achieved next Thursday. If I am not mistaken most recent Octobers I have scrapped frost off the car at least once, not this year.

Mind you, given it's the end of October will it not be way too cloudy in that setup to get close to 20C? We'd need a direct southerly or SE-ly I'd have thought, to get the clear skies necessary for spectacularly high temps.

Just hope this isn't the start of something like Nov/Dec 2015. Though to be fair there are other years where mild and dull gave way to cold and frosty in Nov e.g. 1998, 2005, 2013. Granted the three winters following this were a bit 'mixed' to say the least, but I'd take a repeat of 2005/06.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Summer8906

[danthetan]

looking at the latest radar I see scotland has had its first widespread snowfall 

[damianslaw]

Turning into a fairly forgettable October.. roll on November please!

[Mapantz]

On 20/10/2021 at 20:18, Alderc said:

It’s only rained a handful of times. Personally I prefer this. A couple horridly wet days followed by three weeks of dry whether. Much better than days of drizzle.
 

Actually if we could arrange for 50mm overnight every other Sunday it only needs to 26times a year to give us more than enough to get by and I’d never look like a drowned rat again like I do now after running back to my car after work …

10mm just fell in 15 minutes here. October currently matches July as the wettest month this year, 145.4mm.

[richie3846]

10 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

Oh yeah, one of the better known statistical "near misses" too, with a new UK October record max of 29.9 °C at Gravesend on 1st October. Absolutely extraordinary few days.

Worth mentioning that Lyneham weather station recorded the hottest day of the year that day after an abysmal summer. Hottest day of the year in October? The odds on that must be miniscule.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In 1985, 1 October was the hottest day of the year in some parts of the country, but yes it's extremely rare.

[LetItSnow!]

13 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

In 1985, 1 October was the hottest day of the year in some parts of the country, but yes it's extremely rare.

Apologies for off topicness, but if you think that's rare, in 1965 many places recorded either their warmest temperature of the year in May or October. Trevor Harley posted that Spadeadam in Cumbria had its warmest day of the year on Oct. 5th, 1965 and even 22+C was recorded as late as the 22nd. So the three warmest spells of the year... Have to wonder how us moaners would cope if a 1965 style summer were to happen again.

[MattStoke]

What a relief today's bright and cool weather is. No being soaked through to the skin by rain whilst losing half my body weight in sweat. No having to carry a rucksack that's fit to burst with changes of clothes, towel etc. No risk of being made ill. No disruption to outdoor plans. Wonderful! Just wish the miserable, boring, nuisance, wet and windy rubbish would do one forever. 

[mb018538]

12 hours ago, Alderc said:

It’s only rained a handful of times. Personally I prefer this. A couple horridly wet days followed by three weeks of dry whether. Much better than days of drizzle.
 

Actually if we could arrange for 50mm overnight every other Sunday it only needs to 26times a year to give us more than enough to get by and I’d never look like a drowned rat again like I do now after running back to my car after work …

I was going to post this too.

Just seems to have happened a lot this year! We seem to keep getting absolute deluge days that dump a months worth of rain down, and then nothing much in between. Must have hade 4/5 of these events now in the last few months here. I'm sure other places are the same.

28mm recorded here, which pales into insignificance compared to other areas in the UK which have seen double. But certainly pretty wet by this very dry part of the UK's standards. 

[stainesbloke]

Severe weather warnings here in Prague today, with wind gusts forecast to reach 65mph. These strong winds affected France last night and have moved over to C Europe. It’s already blowing a hoolie with leaves being ripped from the trees, but it’s quite sunny and warm with it (currently  18°C after an exceptionally warm day yesterday where it reached a very pleasant 23°C). 

Edited October 21, 2021 by stainesbloke