Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Atmogenic]

yay overcast skies...

[Guest]

Ugh - drizzlefest this morning. Was hoping things would start to clear by now. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Classic anticyclonic gloom conditions over here in my neck of the woods. Doesn't really bother me that much, just as like as the sky clears overnight so that we can have some nice thick fog and possibly a ground frost or two. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Beautiful high pressure! Just like everyone wanted ... Glorious!

[damianslaw]

Drab overcast wet skies here. The tropical maritime airstream rarely if ever brings clear skies here. Instead cloaked by low cloud and drizzle or light rain. On this occasion moderate pulses. 

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Beautiful high pressure! Just like everyone wanted ... Glorious!

I know! Isn't it ironic. And I think it's going to be like thus for a loooong time.

Still only a matter of a few weeks before the Atlantic roars back into life for the rest of autumn and winter. 

[MattStoke]

Damn. I'm so gutted I'm not being soaked and frozen and falling ill whilst having all my outdoor plans disrupted.

[MP-R]

Mostly cloudy with occasional sunshine. Warm though. All a bit wasted though with all this cloud.

[Summer8906]

A very disappointing day, was hoping for a drier warm feed but instead we get Tm muck. Mist and drizzle this morning, less dull afternoon but no sunshine. Was this expected? I am sure there was more of an indication of warm and sunny weather, maybe the feed has more of a westerly component than expected?

I saw a BBC weather forecast at lunchtime (was in a pub, sound was down) and highest temps for London are 20 today and tomorrow. Mild, but not exactly exceptional warmth for October.

The trouble is, there seems to be a general rule that if the air is so moist that it drizzles (as it did this morning), then the cloud tends not to disappear at all until there is a change in airmass. So to be honest, I don't hold out much hope of the sun appearing here for the next couple of days, though the Met Office forecast is suggesting a weakening cold front over the weekend so it might get brighter beyond that.

At this time of year (or most times of year aside from summer, to be honest) a southwesterly injection into a high is the death knell for sunshine as the high just gets filled up with stagnant cloud. Most of the really nice spells of weather at this time of year have come with an initial polar maritime airmass (as yesterday) remaining in place as pressure builds (so no clag build-up), and then the high eventually draws in warm air from the SE by moving eastwards without ever allowing the wind to become southwesterly. The spells of early October 1994 and 2016 were notable for impressive sunshine totals, and both kept the clean polar air in for a good few days. This is what we need. Likewise, a spell in mid-September 1998 (a generally unsettled month) again had an initial polar feed and then the wind went right round to the SE without a southwesterly phase, hence it warmed up without any cloud.

This reminds me more of what happened immediately prior to ex-Ophelia in 2017. A much-hyped warm spell became a cloudfest and only half a day (the Sunday afternoon) was decent.

Unfortunately the GFS I looked at this morning suggests no real injection of northerly or northwesterly air into the high, which is what we really need to get any decent sunshine. Too much air from a southwesterly quarter, always bad for sunshine here. And then what looks like a biblical rainfest in two weeks' time with a trough stuck over southern England for days, although obviously that's unlikely to verify.

I do hope I am wrong. Aside from April and September, this seems to have been a very dull year in this area, if it doesn't improve in the next month or two this must surely challenge for dullest calendar year on record locally. And that's following a largely dull (apart from, again, September) final 7 months of 2020.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

On 07/10/2021 at 15:50, Summer8906 said:

A very disappointing day, was hoping for a drier warm feed but instead we get Tm muck. Was this expected? I am sure there was more of an indication of warm and sunny weather, maybe the feed has more of a westerly component than expected?

The trouble is, there seems to be a general rule that if the air is so moist that it drizzles (as it did this morning), then the cloud tends not to disappear at all until there is a change in airmass. So to be honest, I don't hold out much hope of the sun appearing here for the next couple of days, though the Met Office forecast is suggesting a weakening cold front over the weekend so it might get brighter beyond that.

At this time of year (or most times of year aside from summer, to be honest) a southwesterly injection into a high is the death knell for sunshine as the high just gets filled up with stagnant cloud. Most of the really nice spells of weather at this time of year have come with an initial polar maritime airmass (as yesterday) remaining in place as pressure builds (so no clag build-up), and then the high eventually draws in warm air from the SE by moving eastwards without ever allowing the wind to become southwesterly. The spells of early October 1994 and 2016 were notable for impressive sunshine totals, and both kept the clean polar air in for a good few days. This is what we need. Likewise, a spell in mid-September 1998 (a generally unsettled month) again had an initial polar feed and then the wind went right round to the SE without a southwesterly phase, hence it warmed up without any cloud.

This reminds me more of what happened immediately prior to ex-Ophelia in 2017. A much-hyped warm spell became a cloudfest and only half a day (the Sunday afternoon) was decent.

Unfortunately the GFS I looked at this morning suggests no real injection of northerly or northwesterly air into the high, which is what we really need to get any decent sunshine. Too much air from a southwesterly quarter, always bad for sunshine here. And then what looks like a biblical rainfest in two weeks' time with a trough stuck over southern England for days, although obviously that's unlikely to verify.

I do hope I am wrong. Aside from April and September, this seems to have been a very dull year in this area, if it doesn't improve in the next month or two this must surely challenge for dullest calendar year on record locally. And that's following a largely dull (apart from, again, September) final 7 months of 2020.

 

 

 

 

There was a warm sunny spell around this time in October 2008 too with a similar evolution, but somehow managed to remain largely cloudfree, especially across the south. Makes such a difference, and 22C was the high. Perhaps that time the high built NEwards slightly more to the west of this one so the moisture supply was somewhat cut off.

[Summer8906]

43 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I know! Isn't it ironic. And I think it's going to be like thus for a loooong time.

Still only a matter of a few weeks before the Atlantic roars back into life for the rest of autumn and winter. 

To paraphrase the song, if that happens, wake me up when February ends.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

There was a warm sunny spell around this time in October 2008 too with a similar evolution, but somehow managed to remain largely cloudfree, especially across the south. Makes such a difference, and 22C was the high. Perhaps that time the high built NEwards slightly more to the west of this one so the moisture supply was somewhat cut off.

I remember that one, though only vaguely remember its evolution. I seem to remember (could be wrong) that the high built with rPm air in place. rPm isn't great for sunshine either, but not quite as bad as Tm, so the air was that bit drier presumably.

October 2008 was a good month on the whole. Generally mild and often sunny and then that extraordinary cold and sunny spell (with night-time convection) at the end. It started with a bright cold NWly, then a brief unsettled spell at the first weekend (with the rain coming in several hours earlier than expected on Saturday afternoon... meaning I got soaked) and a further unsettled spell the week before the cold.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Summer8906

[MattStoke]

The end of October 2008 cold spell is one that sticks firmly in my memory. Walking from my uni dorms in Hatfield, Hertfordshire, to a friend's house in an unexpected winter wonderland after the evening BBC weather forecast said 'A cold night with outbreaks of rain and some sleet over the hills'. 

[SunSean]

Cor, what a waste of a 20 degree October day! Nothing but dull grey rubbish all day.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

The end of October 2008 cold spell is one that sticks firmly in my memory. Walking from my uni dorms in Hatfield, Hertfordshire, to a friend's house in an unexpected winter wonderland after the evening BBC weather forecast said 'A cold night with outbreaks of rain and some sleet over the hills'. 

holiday week, but this low down, heavy proper snow, but didn;t lie at all, high ground event

[Lincs Observation]

Evening all very nice usable day today, a thought for you all keep watching them there models because I think it will be a brutal winter, my reasoning gas prices going in to hyperspace and weather wise nature has a way of kicking us when we are down in this country

LO

[andreas]

At times the UK can seem like a septic tank or an appendix - depending on your choice of metaphor - for stagnant warm moist air...

 

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by andreas

[Atmogenic]

2 hours ago, andreas said:

At times the UK can seem like a septic tank or an appendix - depending on your choice of metaphor - for stagnant warm moist air...

 

 

unpopular opinion but it's nice to see the UK being the warm one for once and not every country in Europe having the nicer weather (though today was a dull day)

Edited October 7, 2021 by Atmogenic

[MP-R]

On 08/10/2021 at 00:02, Atmogenic said:

unpopular opinion but it's nice to see the UK being the warm one for once and not every country in Europe having the nicer weather (though today was a dull day)

Yes, although that's also the dewpoint map, so there are actually many areas of Europe warmer than us but with lower dewpoints.

[andreas]

Fair points and I was being a bit tongue in cheek. But - with some caveats e.g. summer in the Sahara is sometimes below freezing - I do find dew points tend to give a better indication than temperature about how 'warm' the air feels (in the shade). Maybe that's just me.

Edited October 8, 2021 by andreas

[Summer8906]

5 hours ago, andreas said:

Fair points and I was being a bit tongue in cheek. But - with some caveats e.g. summer in the Sahara is sometimes below freezing - I do find dew points tend to give a better indication than temperature about how 'warm' the air feels (in the shade). Maybe that's just me.

I think there's truth in that. I have spent time in Northern Greece most seasons of the year now (Pieria county, near Olympus) and what is striking is how it usually 'feels' colder than the equivalent temperature in the UK, due to the low DP. High summer is the exception when it just feels very hot!

Last winter it was frequently 10-12C during the daytime there, which I think is fairly typical for winter. Such a temperature would feel oppressively humid here in Dec and Jan, there it felt cold out of the sun - more like 6 or 7C back home. Likewise I've felt a little cold during September evenings when it was around 21 or 22C.

For much of the year, certainly autumn/winter/spring, low DP seems to correlate very well to 'good' weather - more so than day max temperature.

So in summary, it seems that the UK and immediately adjacent regions of France had some of the worst weather in Europe yesterday! (besides the low over Italy which I am aware of)

Edited October 8, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Predictably, the cloud has persisted today, though a mid-level sheet rather than the low-level gloom of yesterday. 'Feels' cooler so I'd guess the DP has dropped (see above).

I suspect we need to get rid of this airmass (via the cold front over the weekend?) before it gets brighter. Talk of frosts next week does raise hope of sunny conditions during the day.

[Stabilo19]

It feels like 2021 has been the year of cloudy highs and sunny lows. Just another reason why the UK has one of the worst climates in the world IMO.

Bring back the Atlantic storms so we can get some clear and sunny weather IMBY!! 

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

It feels like 2021 has been the year of cloudy highs and sunny lows. Just another reason why the UK has one of the worst climates in the world IMO.

Bring back the Atlantic storms so we can get some clear and sunny weather 

Injection of polar air is what we need! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

49 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

It feels like 2021 has been the year of cloudy highs and sunny lows. Just another reason why the UK has one of the worst climates in the world IMO.

Bring back the Atlantic storms so we can get some clear and sunny weather IMBY!! 

YES!!!!!!!!!!!I have never wanted rain before but it looks like it does just clear things! High pressure is fast becoming the enemy ...