Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still remember 1st Oct 2010, one of worst washouts, perhaps rivalling 24/25 Sept '12

[damianslaw]

Thinking back to the colder winters of 2008-09, 09-10, 10-11 and if you include March 12-13, all delivered either cold northerlies at some point in October, most notably 2008, but also 2010 and 2012 late in the month, or warm anticyclonic conditions that became progressively colder, 2009 and 2010. What brings them together is the weak jet - Atlantic was often meridional in flow... sometimes October delivers clues for the winter. Equally all apart from December 09 brought a cold end to Nov and start to Dec. 2009 saw the cold delayed until about 10th...

We have a rather meridional jet now.. we have had it all year. 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 all featured a southerly jet for long periods and much cyclonic or trough dominated spells interspersed with anticyclonic ones.. 2021 has been very similar to these 4 years so far... 

Edited October 2, 2021 by damianslaw

[Guest]

Over 30mm now here since 8am, shocking day.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Is it me or are trees taking longer to turn than usual this year? Doesn't really surprise me though, thanks to the warm September.

Back in the spring, trees took a while to bloom. And now they are taking a while to turn.

[audiotech]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Is it me or are trees taking longer to turn than usual this year? Doesn't really surprise me though, thanks to the warm September.

Back in the spring, trees took a while to bloom. And now they are taking a while to turn.

Locally, some species of trees had started turning about 10% of their leaves yellow by the end of the dull August here. Then when the warm sunny September came along they didn't progress any further so at this point in time I think they are greener than normal now. Some of those yellow leaves dropped off making them look greener again. Very late start with the cold spring though,

[Snowyowl9]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Is it me or are trees taking longer to turn than usual this year? Doesn't really surprise me though, thanks to the warm September.

Back in the spring, trees took a while to bloom. And now they are taking a while to turn.

Late spring may was cold,looks like its balanced out late september chilly and wet now.

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still remember 1st Oct 2010, one of worst washouts, perhaps rivalling 24/25 Sept '12

But of course October 2010 as a whole was arguably one of the best Octobers of recent history (as came up in the model thread).

Some models are suggesting we might follow that year. In 2010 warm sunny weather arrived on the 8th, then the high retrogressed and we had first easterlies (sunny but cooler days) and then northerlies (sunny or very sunny with occasional frontal interruptions from the north or northwest). Eventually the high retrogressed so far into the Atlantic that the lows started descending from Iceland restoring the unsettled weather - but overall a very good month indeed if you like sunshine and interesting synoptics. 2003 and 1992 also showed similar retrogressions, though both started much drier and more settled than 2010.

Back to the current spell - despite some really nasty days (28th, 30th, and especially yesterday) the one good thing is we are getting 'true' Pm, rather than rPm, which means that we are getting some decent sunshine and good visibility in the gaps between the frontal systems. This means that it isn't quite as grotty as it could be; contrast late Sept-early Oct 2019 which was plain vile with damp, dull, humid weather in between the lows, due to rPm rather than 'true' Pm.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Summer8906

[stainesbloke]

After a dreary morning at Heathrow, the skies have cleared beautifully Lovely afternoon, hopefully 

[Simon M]

Quite a few showers today, and we've just had a huge crack of thunder from a shower just passing to our south.  Certainly is eventful weather.

[draztik]

October looks like being a snoozy month given the NH profile, and the forecast into day 10 at least. Zero to get excited about! Ahh, the days of the seasons actually being seasonal seem to be over! 

[LetItSnow!]

While I’m sure many are salivating at the mild, sunny days that will be had with this, my focus is on those beautiful chilly, foggy (maybe even frosty in places) nights. I would imagine under a ridge, even with mild air aloft, we should be well into single figures with that. Living in a house that seemingly stays warm all the time, I was disappointed in the lack of an autumnal feel in September, so I’m really liking this output. 

[Sunny76]

It will be interesting to see how the La Palma volcano affects the winter, and possibly summer 2022 and beyond. 
 

 

[al78]

On 02/10/2021 at 12:49, Alderc said:

Absolute washout, disgusting day. To make it worse I have a leaky roof following having some work down. Radar looks horrendous and I’m worried for my ceiling!!! 

Yes, Saturday was very poor, at least today has had some usable weather. Hope this isn't the start of another series of weekends of poor weather, we had enough of that in the summer here in the SE.

[lassie23]

Reading the above posts, it looks like we are in for an odd winter.  October Fog Index looks interesting this year, snow shoes, shovels, sledges at the ready.

[Crackerjack]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Reading the above posts, it looks like we are in for an odd winter.  October Fog Index looks interesting this year, snow shoes, shovels, sledges at the ready.

I can see the headlines now ‘ Severe shortage of Grit, Snow shovels, sledges and carrots ‘

[lassie23]

23 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

I can see the headlines now ‘ Severe shortage of Grit, Snow shovels, sledges and carrots ‘

The great carrot crisis of winter 2021/2022 people queueing for them. Thankfully, I have loads growing in my garden. Or should that be the grated carrot crisis

Edited October 4, 2021 by lassie23

[Tom Quintavalle]

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

The great carrot crisis of winter 2021/2022 people queueing for them. Thankfully, I have loads growing in my garden. Or should that be the grated carrot crisis

Loving it Lass!!

Will you be doing an October Carrot Index, grated or otherwise!!

Was just getting up at 4.30 A.M., when my locale was hit by a torrential downpour.

It was so heavy, I was expecting a flash of lightning/crack of thunder but they didn't materialise.

A quick gander at the Radar, shows a train of Showers making their way up to the London area, from the South Coast.

With Channel S.S.T.'s at about their highest, it's pretty common to experience some lively, showery airstreams, at this time of Year, when the atmosphere is very unstable, and the flow from a Southerly point.

On quite a few occasions, our extreme Southern coastal locations have experienced violent T/Storms, and even a short lived tornado.

Right must get back to calculating the Returns from Yesterday Afternoon's, Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.

Thought you might have been "on" Lass, as it was your kind of price?

BTW, does a German trained "Arc" Winner, correlate to a severe Winter?

Not if the 1975 win of Star Appeal is anything to go by. A stormy and wet start to that Winter, with a dry and pretty mild end,

Chucking it down again, as I end this post.

Regards,

Tom.

[Freeze]

Loving this October so far, lots of sunshine, apart from the 2nd, and plenty of heavy squally showers for interest. Cooler temps too but still fairly warm in any sun. Proper autumn weather.

[damianslaw]

23 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

But of course October 2010 as a whole was arguably one of the best Octobers of recent history (as came up in the model thread).

Some models are suggesting we might follow that year. In 2010 warm sunny weather arrived on the 8th, then the high retrogressed and we had first easterlies (sunny but cooler days) and then northerlies (sunny or very sunny with occasional frontal interruptions from the north or northwest). Eventually the high retrogressed so far into the Atlantic that the lows started descending from Iceland restoring the unsettled weather - but overall a very good month indeed if you like sunshine and interesting synoptics. 2003 and 1992 also showed similar retrogressions, though both started much drier and more settled than 2010.

Back to the current spell - despite some really nasty days (28th, 30th, and especially yesterday) the one good thing is we are getting 'true' Pm, rather than rPm, which means that we are getting some decent sunshine and good visibility in the gaps between the frontal systems. This means that it isn't quite as grotty as it could be; contrast late Sept-early Oct 2019 which was plain vile with damp, dull, humid weather in between the lows, due to rPm rather than 'true' Pm.

Agree good injections of polar air inbetween the systems have been a feature of recent days, blowing away the cobwebs and bringing welcome clear blue skies and fresh air. When we have tropical maritime followed by returning polar maritime we end up with a gloom fest here. Conditions that ruined many a month and unfortunately have been more likely in recent years with little variation.

[Summer8906]

44 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Agree good injections of polar air inbetween the systems have been a feature of recent days, blowing away the cobwebs and bringing welcome clear blue skies and fresh air. When we have tropical maritime followed by returning polar maritime we end up with a gloom fest here. Conditions that ruined many a month and unfortunately have been more likely in recent years with little variation.

 

I do get the impression that compared to the 80s, rPm seems much more common and 'true' Pm less common these days. Likewise in the 80s proper ridges of high pressure in Atlantic setups seemed to be more common. Overall result is that 80s winters seemed to be colder and sunnier than those of the past 20 years or so - even if you ignore the really cold ones (1981/2, 1985, 1986 and 1987).

Likewise, the frequency of rPm seems to be to blame for the really dull nature of a lot of recent summers - August 2008, June 2012 and June 2016 being notable examples. Recent unsettled summer months have been notable for CETs which haven't been that low - but low daytime maxima and high cloud amounts. Given rPm tends to stay cloudy at night while 'true' Pm clears, that would result in warmer nights and hence higher CETs. You read of some really cool summer months from the 1960s, and you wonder whether these months (July 1965 is one, I think) might have been more pleasant than something like June 2016, because daytime temps would be about the same, but at least you'd get sun early and late and clear starry nights.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Summer8906

[Wimbledon88]

5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Loving it Lass!!

Will you be doing an October Carrot Index, grated or otherwise!!

Was just getting up at 4.30 A.M., when my locale was hit by a torrential downpour.

It was so heavy, I was expecting a flash of lightning/crack of thunder but they didn't materialise.

A quick gander at the Radar, shows a train of Showers making their way up to the London area, from the South Coast.

With Channel S.S.T.'s at about their highest, it's pretty common to experience some lively, showery airstreams, at this time of Year, when the atmosphere is very unstable, and the flow from a Southerly point.

On quite a few occasions, our extreme Southern coastal locations have experienced violent T/Storms, and even a short lived tornado.

Right must get back to calculating the Returns from Yesterday Afternoon's, Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.

Thought you might have been "on" Lass, as it was your kind of price?

BTW, does a German trained "Arc" Winner, correlate to a severe Winter?

Not if the 1975 win of Star Appeal is anything to go by. A stormy and wet start to that Winter, with a dry and pretty mild end,

Chucking it down again, as I end this post.

Regards,

Tom.

Great to see you back posting again Tom. 

Been a while.

[Mapantz]

Only 4 days in to October, and already surpassed 60mm of rain, with more to come later.

[lassie23]

9 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Loving it Lass!!

Will you be doing an October Carrot Index, grated or otherwise!!

Was just getting up at 4.30 A.M., when my locale was hit by a torrential downpour.

It was so heavy, I was expecting a flash of lightning/crack of thunder but they didn't materialise.

A quick gander at the Radar, shows a train of Showers making their way up to the London area, from the South Coast.

With Channel S.S.T.'s at about their highest, it's pretty common to experience some lively, showery airstreams, at this time of Year, when the atmosphere is very unstable, and the flow from a Southerly point.

On quite a few occasions, our extreme Southern coastal locations have experienced violent T/Storms, and even a short lived tornado.

Right must get back to calculating the Returns from Yesterday Afternoon's, Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.

Thought you might have been "on" Lass, as it was your kind of price?

BTW, does a German trained "Arc" Winner, correlate to a severe Winter?

Not if the 1975 win of Star Appeal is anything to go by. A stormy and wet start to that Winter, with a dry and pretty mild end,

Chucking it down again, as I end this post.

Regards,

Tom.

I was woken by heavy rain as well but no thunder, the second time in 4 days. A zero score on the fog index so far , but the carrots are coming up a treat.

[MP-R]

On 04/10/2021 at 15:35, lassie23 said:

I was woken by heavy rain as well but no thunder, the second time in 4 days. A zero score on the fog index so far , but the carrots are coming up a treat.

Lots of high pressure incoming so maybe some fog on the horizon.

Weird to think that the only fog I saw in September was during the heatwave.

[AderynCoch]

Lovely day here, 24C and sunny. More of the same tomorrow before a big temperature drop on Wednesday accompanied by rain.

I wonder how many warm days October can eke out before autumn takes hold for good.