Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[MP-R]

I’m very double sided about this unsettled spell. It’ll be nice for a change, and for a few days, but I think it’ll wear thin quicker than the drier conditions we’ve had of late. 

I’m also off to north wales from midweek so it couldn’t come at a worse time. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Regarding warm Septembers; the truth is that nobody really knows for certain how the following winter will pan out. Whilst it does seem that there is a bit of a correlation between warm Septembers and mild winters, we all know how unpredictable our climate can be. Winter is still over 2 months away and a lot can happen in that time.

Don't give up hope just yet! 

Edited September 25, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Penrith Snow]

22 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Regarding warm Septembers; the truth is that nobody really knows for certain how the following winter will pan out. Whilst it does seem that there is a bit of a correlation between warm Septembers and mild winters, we all know how unpredictable our climate can be. Winter is still over 2 months away and a lot can happen in that time.

Don't give up hope just yet! 

September 1978 was very warm........just saying!

[damianslaw]

52 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Regarding warm Septembers; the truth is that nobody really knows for certain how the following winter will pan out. Whilst it does seem that there is a bit of a correlation between warm Septembers and mild winters, we all know how unpredictable our climate can be. Winter is still over 2 months away and a lot can happen in that time.

Don't give up hope just yet! 

Last notably below average was September 2015 at 12.6 degrees, 1 degree below 61-90 average .. and look what happened in December!

Edited September 25, 2021 by damianslaw

[syed2878]

11 hours ago, sundog said:

Yes I think this warmth is effectively aborting this coming winter while it's still in the womb. We are going to get one long autumn till March.  Despite some musings of perhaps an early ssw and the fact that the pv looks like it will be very weak etc I will be surprised if we get a decent winter this year. This very warm September has set the tone. I hope I'm wrong  but I wouldn't  be surprised if we get one of the mildest winters on record. 

  Wow that must be a record for this forum a Winter’s over post in September how ever I can see where you’re coming from though I don’t think there’s enough data to actually say that a warm September will be followed by a mild winter. Anyway I do hope that we get a mother of all winters this up coming season

[Cheshire Freeze]

People trying to draw conclusions on the upcoming winter based on a data set so small it's statistically insignificant. Anyone can draw patterns from a pool of data so small. It's like taking the past 40 results of a roulette wheel and plumping on green after two red results because it has shown up twice after a run of two reds together each time.

I mean, you only have to go back 43 years to see an instance where the theory is completely disproved.

Edited September 26, 2021 by CreweCold

[Weather Enthusiast91]

5 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

September 1978 was very warm........just saying!

October that year was warmer than the seasonal average too, particularly during the first half with high teens and 20+ Celsius days recorded in many places (26 Celsius in central London on the 11th). It was also a fairly dry autumn. Just like with this year, autumn took quite a bit of time to get going. But then, the following winter however...

 

Edited September 26, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Penrith Snow]

3 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

October that year was warmer than the seasonal average too, particularly during the first half with high teens and 20+ Celsius days recorded in many places (26 Celsius in central London on the 11th). It was also a fairly dry autumn. Just like with this year, autumn took quite a bit of time to get going. But then, the following winter however...

 

The first half of November 1978 was exceptionally mild, indeed, by mid November autumn 1978 was one of the warmest on record, then on 21st November a cold front swept south introducing much colder North west winds with frost and snow showers. The rest is history ❄.  To write off winter due to a warm September is daft, many professionals and modelers got last winter wrong as many expect GW to make cold weather extinct and mild winters the default. Yes they are more likely now but a cold Winter of Discontent is coming which will do for Boris what winter 1978/79 did for Jim Callaghan. Let the show begin.......

[Glaswegianblizzard]

On 25/09/2021 at 22:44, damianslaw said:

Looking forward to the upcoming cold front, kicking the weather into action.. about time! I've been asleep all September so far!

You should have said!

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

The first half of November 1978 was exceptionally mild, indeed, by mid November autumn 1978 was one of the warmest on record, then on 21st November a cold front swept south introducing much colder North west winds with frost and snow showers. The rest is history ❄.  To write off winter due to a warm September is daft, many professionals and modelers got last winter wrong as many expect GW to make cold weather extinct and mild winters the default. Yes they are more likely now but a cold Winter of Discontent is coming which will do for Boris what winter 1978/79 did for Jim Callaghan. Let the show begin.......

I don't believe it's possible (at least, not with the knowledge/technology we have now) to call winter three months ahead of time. And that is why I gave up trying to do it many years back.

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Regarding warm Septembers; the truth is that nobody really knows for certain how the following winter will pan out. Whilst it does seem that there is a bit of a correlation between warm Septembers and mild winters, we all know how unpredictable our climate can be. Winter is still over 2 months away and a lot can happen in that time.

Don't give up hope just yet! 

A mild winter would be a blessing in disguise with the current problems we are facing. 
 

It will be just our bad luck to experience a cold or very cold winter this time round. I have a feeling it’s going to be a chilly one, especially after the last one, which had longer periods of colder weather.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't believe it's possible (at least, not with the knowledge/technology we have now) to call winter three months ahead of time. And that is why I gave up trying to do it many years back.

Something similar to 1978/79 is probably unlikely, but a February 1991, January 1987, December 2010 will happen again. 

[Sunny76]

People banging on about how this is the warmest September is laughable. Yes it’s been nice and warm, but I remember a good number of Septembers just as warm.

I for one, have enjoyed this recent spell of long sunny dry spells, which is something we’ve needed in the south, after the dismal summer.

[stainesbloke]

13 hours ago, Simon M said:

It feels more like August than late September at the moment.  Quite humid and with little wind, this is the kind of weather I'd hoped to have seen the back of by now.

 

Winter had better be cold to make up for all this warmth...

This is making up for the crap August endured by many, hang on in there

[White Horse]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

People banging on about how this is the warmest September is laughable. Yes it’s been nice and warm, but I remember a good number of Septembers just as warm.

I for one, have enjoyed this recent spell of long sunny dry spells, which is something we’ve needed in the south, after the dismal summer.

Except it literally is pretty much the warmest on record...

 

[MP-R]

On 26/09/2021 at 10:05, Sunny76 said:

People banging on about how this is the warmest September is laughable. Yes it’s been nice and warm, but I remember a good number of Septembers just as warm.

I for one, have enjoyed this recent spell of long sunny dry spells, which is something we’ve needed in the south, after the dismal summer.

Another month propped up by high minima. Here, the daytime maxima have been 1 degree above average, but the minima have been 2.8 degrees above average. That’s probably partly why it doesn’t feel like it’s been that remarkable. Not helped of course by the comparatively modest amounts of sunshine.

[Scorcher]

43 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Another month propped up by high minima. Here, the daytime maxima have been 1 degree above average, but the minima have been 2.8 degrees above average. That’s probably partly why it doesn’t feel like it’s been that remarkable. Not helped of course by the comparatively modest amounts of sunshine.

Maxima have been well above average here- averaging 21.2C with 17 days above 20C before today. I'd say the maxima have been just as notable. Also the 28.2C here on the 8th is the highest September temp I can find in the records for this area.

[Frigid]

On 26/09/2021 at 11:27, Scorcher said:

Maxima have been well above average here- averaging 21.2C with 17 days above 20C before today. I'd say the maxima have been just as notable. Also the 28.2C here on the 8th is the highest September temp I can find in the records for this area.

I'd say September 2011 was more remarkable due to that late heatwave at the end of the month. Seems like September is becoming more of a summer month; even last year, September reached 27C here.

[sundog]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

People trying to draw conclusions on the upcoming winter based on a data set so small it's statistically insignificant. Anyone can draw patterns from a pool of data so small. It's like taking the past 40 results of a roulette wheel and plumping on green after two red results because it has shown up twice after a run of two reds together each time.

I mean, you only have to go back 43 years to see an instance where the theory is completely disproved.

Not talking about 40 + years ago. More so the last 25 years.  Which of course is a small period of time but the climate is changing  therefore relevant imo. 

[Guest]

Despite a disappointing day yesterday today still feels summery, sunshine and a warm feel to things and temps up to 21C now. Going to be a while before we feel it like this again. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

This is making up for the crap August endured by many, hang on in there

Mean max is for September is currently 22.3C here, compared to June 20.6C, July 22.4C and August 20.8C. Awesome September, dreadful summer.

[MP-R]

On 26/09/2021 at 11:27, Scorcher said:

Maxima have been well above average here- averaging 21.2C with 17 days above 20C before today. I'd say the maxima have been just as notable. Also the 28.2C here on the 8th is the highest September temp I can find in the records for this area.

Oh yes there have certainly a few notable days! The 07th in particular down here.

My average max is the same as yours, but obviously that’s more above average for you than me. I think it would’ve been higher if there had been more sunshine. Instead it’s often been on the cloudier side, hence the high minima. More similar to 2011 in that respect, although of course that month was wet.

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Feeling desperately sad that this might be it for 6 months. I can already feel the chill in my bones next week. Not looking forward to it one bit. 

[Christopher]

Weather station in my garden is at 21c with a strong southerly wind and a shower is just blowing in.

Was quite the shock when I stepped out into the garden.

I think this will be be the most pleasant temps until next year now. 

Roll on the cold front to transition us into the cooler months ahead.

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

This is making up for the crap August endured by many, hang on in there

I agree. It’s our turn for some nice weather. 
 

The coldies had their way when all that damp muck dominated August, and it was depressing.