Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[MP-R]

On 23/09/2021 at 23:14, damianslaw said:

Yes unusually May which is often our most blocked quiet non Atlantic month has been our most consistently unsettled. March here was also mostly unsettled until months end.

I've not known a September with barely any active frontal Atlantic activity. It's been very dry here and absolutely no wind to speak of so far. Sunday night should finally bring an active cold front and hopefully some much needed rain. 

This year has certainly been a year of abnormalities, September added to that list. 

I half expect unsettled weather in May down here but not from an active Atlantic. It’s our second most thundery month for a reason but low pressure is normally at least a slacker affair. We’ve had many a soaker in May from southerly lows, kinda like the early June 2019 one. Thank goodness seasonality returned in June with a surge of high pressure from the south! That tends to be one of the more reliable summer features, at least in the south.

Although we could do with some rain after what will have been a very dry 7 week period, I really hope we don’t go for the opposite extreme in October. An October like 2018 would go down a treat with late warmth and early cold with plenty of sunshine!

[SunSean]

Really surprising and dull start here. Met office said blue skies all day but its been endless grey since i woke up and no hint of blue on the horizon. Was hoping to enjoy the probable last bit of prolonged sunshine until Spring 2022 before i start work but unfortunately for me, the forecast was wrong. No doubt the sun might come out while i'm at work though, sods law.

[Wynn D Woo]

This September is going to live well in the memory, its been great weather throughout, not just usable but actually really nice. Love being able to be outdoors and not having to carry loads of wet weather gear whilst walking.

[Simon M]

Soon the weather will finally, finally change to something properly autumnal.  I can't wait to see the back of this weather, just a few more days of "warm sunshine" to suffer through.

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Wynn D Woo said:

This September is going to live well in the memory, its been great weather throughout, not just usable but actually really nice. Love being able to be outdoors and not having to carry loads of wet weather gear whilst walking.

Nice = no spice!

[Wynn D Woo]

37 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Nice = no spice!

Depends what you are doing in the nice weather I guess...

[Weather Enthusiast91]

More of the same. 

[Woollymummy]

Beautiful evening last night, open day at school so lots of visitors able to move around the site in still, balmy air, glorious sunshine and sunset, warm, dry, comfortable. Today, a whole day of meetings, performance management work and online assignments so no chance to really enjoy the gorgeous sunshine, but glad to see it was there and kids enjoyed a sunny day off. Next week though....

[matt111]

On 24/09/2021 at 15:10, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

More of the same. 

Maybe not for much longer...

As much as I like warm sunny weather, it hasn't been that warm here or sunny for that matter apart from the last couple of days. It's been a very boring spell here which has been typical of almost all year so far. 

[Wold Topper]

Lovely sunny morning on the yorkshire wolds, a few clouds about but plenty of warmth in the morning sun, might be a good day to get a few out door jobs done!

[Guest]

Sort of day where a surprisingly large amount of rain falls from despite the radar being clear. Also what’s the betting the clearance doesn’t reach the south coast until about 6pm? 

[Froze were the Days]

This will have consequences further down the line regarding winter if this warm weather continues...the continent must still be very warm (remember January this year and that not so cold easterly/north easterly)?. Personally I've had enough of the warmth, why couldn't we have had this in August or a continued spell of warm weather in the summer months? but looking at the mundane CET anomalies we've experienced this year this was going to happen eventually if not this month then towards the winter.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Sort of day where a surprisingly large amount of rain falls from despite the radar being clear. Also what’s the betting the clearance doesn’t reach the south coast until about 6pm? 

Weather cast told me it was going to be a sunny afternoon - So where is it then huh?! Need sun to dry my chicken coops when I clean it in a bit!

[Met.]

LMAO where's the warm spell? Cool and overcast with rain here.

[sundog]

52 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

This will have consequences further down the line regarding winter if this warm weather continues...the continent must still be very warm (remember January this year and that not so cold easterly/north easterly)?. Personally I've had enough of the warmth, why couldn't we have had this in August or a continued spell of warm weather in the summer months? but looking at the mundane CET anomalies we've experienced this year this was going to happen eventually if not this month then towards the winter.

Yes I think this warmth is effectively aborting this coming winter while it's still in the womb. We are going to get one long autumn till March.  Despite some musings of perhaps an early ssw and the fact that the pv looks like it will be very weak etc I will be surprised if we get a decent winter this year. This very warm September has set the tone. I hope I'm wrong  but I wouldn't  be surprised if we get one of the mildest winters on record. 

[Downburst]

39 minutes ago, sundog said:

Yes I think this warmth is effectively aborting this coming winter while it's still in the womb. We are going to get one long autumn till March.  Despite some musings of perhaps an early ssw and the fact that the pv looks like it will be very weak etc I will be surprised if we get a decent winter this year. This very warm September has set the tone. I hope I'm wrong  but I wouldn't  be surprised if we get one of the mildest winters on record. 

Couldn’t agree more. Year after year we here this notion of front loaded winter and SSW, implying snowmagedon. But year after year less and less cold temps is the reality. October November December long range looking mild, good for peoples energy costs at least. 

[Don]

38 minutes ago, sundog said:

Yes I think this warmth is effectively aborting this coming winter while it's still in the womb. We are going to get one long autumn till March.  Despite some musings of perhaps an early ssw and the fact that the pv looks like it will be very weak etc I will be surprised if we get a decent winter this year. This very warm September has set the tone. I hope I'm wrong  but I wouldn't  be surprised if we get one of the mildest winters on record. 

This is my main concern for the coming winter, which is a pity as there seems to be a number positive signs currently. However, we will just have to hope that this year bucks the trend and we do not get a mild/very mild winter following a warm September!

[hillbilly]

6 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

This will have consequences further down the line regarding winter if this warm weather continues...the continent must still be very warm (remember January this year and that not so cold easterly/north easterly)?. Personally I've had enough of the warmth, why couldn't we have had this in August or a continued spell of warm weather in the summer months? but looking at the mundane CET anomalies we've experienced this year this was going to happen eventually if not this month then towards the winter.

I would rather have the warmth now than in December,January or February

[hillbilly]

5 hours ago, sundog said:

Yes I think this warmth is effectively aborting this coming winter while it's still in the womb. We are going to get one long autumn till March.  Despite some musings of perhaps an early ssw and the fact that the pv looks like it will be very weak etc I will be surprised if we get a decent winter this year. This very warm September has set the tone. I hope I'm wrong  but I wouldn't  be surprised if we get one of the mildest winters on record. 

There is no evidence to suggest a warm September will give a mild winter.Just a few years ago 2015 had a cool August and September and some commented it is a good run up to a cold winter  but how that changed to give us one of the mildest and wettest on record.

[sundog]

53 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

There is no evidence to suggest a warm September will give a mild winter.Just a few years ago 2015 had a cool August and September and some commented it is a good run up to a cold winter  but how that changed to give us one of the mildest and wettest on record.

I don't think a cool or average September means we will get a cold winter but it seems to give us a better chance. Cant think of any above average Septembers in the last 25 yrs or so that lead to anything other then a mild winter. Off the top of my head warm Septembers  like 1998,01,06,11,16 were  all followed by poor winters .Of course it could be said our winters are getting milder anyway  but imo warm Septembers dont seem to help.

Last winter wasn't great but I would rate it better then many winters of the last decade, last September was cool.

[Simon M]

It feels more like August than late September at the moment.  Quite humid and with little wind, this is the kind of weather I'd hoped to have seen the back of by now.

 

Winter had better be cold to make up for all this warmth...

[hillbilly]

49 minutes ago, sundog said:

I don't think a cool or average September means we will get a cold winter but it seems to give us a better chance. Cant think of any above average Septembers in the last 25 yrs or so that lead to anything other then a mild winter. Off the top of my head warm Septembers  like 1998,01,06,11,16 were  all followed by poor winters .Of course it could be said our winters are getting milder anyway  but imo warm Septembers dont seem to help.

Last winter wasn't great but I would rate it better then many winters of the last decade, last September was cool.

Actually with the exception of 1986  there have been no cold winters with a cooler than average September with 1981,1985,1989 and 2005 all on the mild side and 2009,20010 and 2012 all average

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, hillbilly said:

I would rather have the warmth now than in December,January or February

Fair play if you like a bit of early Autumn warmth...but if that continent remains warm and in the foreseeable it looks like it will it certainly takes one of the building blocks of cold for this country out of the equation for the first part of the winter, personally I'd like now to see some large Atlantic storms get going and spread some much fresher Pm air into Europe (but this doesn't even look like happening over the next week or so as the LP's head north east up towards the Norwegian Sea without affecting Europe to much).

Regards to Septembers, I believe 2016 was warm here and Winter of 2016/17 was closer to normal in my neck of the woods with a frosty/foggy January.

Edited September 25, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[hillbilly]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Fair play if you like a bit of early Autumn warmth...but if that continent remains warm and in the foreseeable it looks like it will it certainly takes one of the building blocks of cold for this country out of the equation for the first part of the winter, personally I'd like now to see some large Atlantic storms get going and spread some much fresher Pm air into Europe (but this doesn't even look like happening over the next week or so as the LP's head north east up towards the Norwegian Sea without affecting Europe to much).

Yes in this topsy turvy weather of modern times with the exception of 2010 winters dont get started until the end of January and tend to take up more of March and April instead of December.

[damianslaw]

Looking forward to the upcoming cold front, kicking the weather into action.. about time! I've been asleep all September so far!

Edited September 25, 2021 by damianslaw