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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    AEDD4996-05BB-4370-9A8E-C1F6B394C898.thumb.jpeg.0352ac5641d43705784a61fade9e8d18.jpeg0CB44846-B2AA-4FBC-9FF5-8A13BCFBA1E5.thumb.jpeg.4d4ba698ec1cca5d8280b6b677df2db3.jpeg

    Its another one that looks good on the SLP chart there but in reality isn’t great. All of this too far away to worry about in great detail now though! Weekend looks great!

    Id wager temps in the low to high 20s on most days on the ECM,in my book thats stunning 😍 👌 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles are nae bad:  t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png  🌞

    Going by the inter-run fluctuation, wind-direction could be a major factor, in these parts?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Stunning EC out to day 8 ...

    That will do for now...

    image.thumb.png.44bf460e774c2696b51ae95a57bc6a5f.png

    Yes, I’d be wary of putting too much faith in a complete breakdown in FI.  Also, I think longer term we are headed for a predominately high pressure situation punctuated by less settled incursions, so a thundery period or two would be my expectation along the way.  

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    image.thumb.png.6d9273cbbafa13480267e76ffaaab7ad.png
    Spot the block!

    The ML ridge looks very resilient on the ICON. Is the EPS being too progressive breaking it down?

    Perhaps it is... given the latest op...

    image.thumb.png.bf926c2dcba51cbd21db570cf73ee102.png

    What little breakdown there is takes the form of some powerful TS in NW Scotland.

    JMA, having been in there progressive breakdown camp for a few days, heads down the more thundery route, much like the GEM

    image.thumb.gif.de2fe0a9217a3e03cfa0e09185084a73.gif

    image.thumb.png.1e6b6068689f9f910634988da395fdf9.png
    That low to the SW is far from resolved and the split flow that spawns it is very very difficult for the models to fathom at this range. Let’s take a look at the EPS in a bit as they were rather progressive this morning... my guess is they’re slightly closer to the 12z op, we’ll see...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    After yesterday's fun and games to the west of London (and some remarkable weather in a very narrow area), a much quieter day today and a fine evening in lowland East London suggesting, with luck, several days of pleasant summer weather.

    If, as I expect, the HP lobe migrates NE, we'll pull in a pleasant E'ly stopping it getting oppressively hot and humid and after a 27c on Saturday, we settle back to a very comfortable 24-25c early next week.

    However, I like to look a little further ahead so tonight we'll drop anchor at T+216 (Thursday 22nd) and see what the 12Z output "suggests" may be in store:

    So we have the 500 charts from GFS OP, ECM, GEM, JMA and GFS Control

    image.thumb.png.1600ccc3baffe9711661958a1ba3a1cf.pngimage.thumb.png.65617964e5597a7f61655a67a7e4060c.pngimage.thumb.png.6906db515dc85fe2868ef14ab2049694.pngimage.thumb.png.2a65dad31fd80262a5210c51600af653.pngimage.thumb.png.2c9b2448ec80dcc69396c6fbd9759913.png

    and the corresponding 850s:

    image.thumb.png.f5ac84caa01c5f1dc5bb2efcb4494f59.pngimage.thumb.png.9a9f32befb90162fdcbb1b4c115b526b.pngimage.thumb.png.7f6b27c59790f6db9f93a2d822d00d88.pngimage.thumb.png.d7d1216fb4d59ed1044ee8a60c1b5b85.pngimage.thumb.png.f594ba2c05595884e4047a572df09526.png

    GEM is the closest to some serious heat while the others, though warm, keep the really hot air well to the south.

    GFS (both OP and Control) has a strong signal for the HP to either migrate north or decline leaving the way clear for the Atlantic trough to roll in and return us to more unsettled, cooler and wetter conditions. Other output is more cautious on the timing of any breakdown - GEM puts the LP further south and west allowing a plume of sorts to clip the south-east corner. JMA's evolution has a broader LP further west so the plume moves over the Low Countries and Germany and misses us.

    The most bullish for the continuation of a fine spell is ECM which keeps a broad but weak HP feature to the north east. Warmer air is threatening the south but nothing is happening quickly on that output.

    So, at this stage, three options on the table into next week - ECM prolongs the settled spell, GEM and JMA bring in a slow breakdown from the west and south west as the HP declines slowly east but that in turn offers a tantalising (for those who like that sort of thing) prospect of heat. GFS is having none of it and brings a much more unsettled evolution through by midweek.

    I don't know how this will turn out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    UKV 15z really cranking up the heat this evening for the weekend with 30°C looking like a real possibility on Sunday.👀🔥

    15_120_max_temp.thumb.png.77a08afeafba3dc0c1fa92f2b00d9ab1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    Another nice way of picking up on what many others are commenting on. Accumulated total precipitation charts from GFS 12z show an extended dry spell, with hints of more unsettled weather only in the less reliable timeframe.

    Other than today’s showers to 1am tonight (+12h)…….

    5E0DC599-4DD1-404E-8B4A-8B06AD19A22C.thumb.png.5a1922beeaede40b8e36d65e192c58cd.png


    ….pretty much as you were with very little rain anywhere in UK or Ireland for the next 7 days (+168h)….a glorious full week of summer weather….(not such a good week for parts of the near continent though!)

    00CEBAA2-6D71-4797-9C9A-73174553B505.thumb.png.df3e73cc4ec358f6bd6ed92a249c4d8a.png

     

    A bit different 48 hours later (+216h), some heavy rain coming up from the south.

    2A3E6848-4C7F-4D16-A5E9-FEEDF6F8159D.thumb.png.9f6e7c241a4426a4f4f1240fb8b2fe0a.png

     

    The equivalent charts from the ECM 12z - similar to GFS for 12h and 168h, but by 216h looks a much less striking outcome, more like some showers and more moderate rain from the northwest, a quite different solution all round at that stage, and so perhaps no great reason for confidence in either outcome at this range, could well stay largely dry throughout.

    6A595566-5A08-4848-9A53-4B3ACC5BF590.thumb.png.fc9e2699de083592d9470d0e7ebda067.png 88B90E25-6F84-4217-AAFD-1189E7DC82A8.thumb.png.7db2dacf10e0ecee64afb093c5c26a71.png 5A241E7E-72F0-4C12-878A-A8AEDEC2C5CC.thumb.png.d6b1a6b7311833f8554a4b3f1d5e7098.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I don't know which model to trust at the moment, are we heading for a draw? I think they should have a penalty shootout, but don't let the UK MO take part.😉

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    19 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

    UKV 15z really cranking up the heat this evening for the weekend with 30°C looking like a real possibility on Sunday.👀🔥

    15_120_max_temp.thumb.png.77a08afeafba3dc0c1fa92f2b00d9ab1.png

    weird looking chart youd expect 30c for London not Yorkshire 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I'm expecting 30C to be breached this Weekend...Sunday perhaps the day...Midlands area and perhaps into N/NW England strangely enough..perhaps someone could get a pick the highest temps day going....it as up until this point been pretty mundane...usable yes..but uninspiring shall we say...but at least now we get a little more excitement.. 😉

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021071312_123_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modcan_2021071312_123_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2021071312_123_18_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I'm expecting 30C to be breached this Weekend...Sunday perhaps the day...Midlands area and perhaps into N/NW England strangely enough..perhaps someone could get a pick the highest temps day going....it as up until this point been pretty mundane...usable yes..but uninspiring shall we say...but at least now we get a little more excitement.. 😉

    xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2021071312_123_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modcan_2021071312_123_18_1.png

    xx_model-en-330-0_modusa_2021071312_123_18_1.png

    Love that 29 degrees smack bang over Liverpool 😍 pity I'm working until 6. Might have to have a post work bike ride to celebrate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    35 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    Love that 29 degrees smack bang over Liverpool 😍 pity I'm working until 6. Might have to have a post work bike ride to celebrate.

    No doubt Liverpool Airport will record 35C while no other station within 30 miles records 30C...

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Far better looking GFS rolling out. High looks better positioned and staying warm throughout Tue and Weds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    UKMO day 4 and 6

    image.thumb.gif.43b2fe7f0314e2324054682568e22043.gifimage.thumb.gif.6ce30c89f225ce1433192e1a5c07c5f5.gif   
     

    Solid enough, light winds across the country so feeling very warm just above everywhere. Just coastal sea breezes. The GFS however tries to bring a trough down into Central Europe that introduces cooler air.

    Day 5

    image.thumb.png.88242899e6c8311053bf7eeb06ea4000.png
     

    This feature is present on the UKMO, but is slower and less pronounced. As such it is less likely to impact the U.K. even if it was just the introduction of cooler conditions. The GEM is sort of in the middle of the two solutions above.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    As @Captain Shortwave says above, a couple of new changes now appearing as a possibility for next week.

    GEM drops a very small upper trough into the north at the start of the week:

    image.thumb.png.6f7c49232c75521b4c40d4ac56587c0b.pngimage.thumb.png.9f62034fe1a619d8e0b50032ea354fdc.png

    GFS has more of the energy to the east of the UK, but it still destabilises things enough for some showers:

    image.thumb.png.ef05910500c819b89d109500b1ee569e.pngimage.thumb.png.46fd3f5fc8b2271566e40de62a02c705.pngimage.thumb.png.f727ca8191bb7b028089708d7c2bdacf.png

    UKMO is wondering what all of the fuss about....keeping the trouble out of the way, while maintaining the high and strong 500mb heights throughout, which keeps it settled:

    image.thumb.png.cec847329fd476337becb99d03f7cf5e.pngimage.thumb.png.d8a8e40d095aaf6b77a3fdd5ceac2a4f.png
     

     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Hmmm....ECM also going down the GFS route. Drops some energy down the eastern flank of the high which messes things up on Monday with cloud and showers.

    image.thumb.png.9db6a21f79e07000a17c2a14b197a4c6.pngimage.thumb.png.0b91062bc097b23e5759f77bcf239fbc.png

    image.thumb.png.a71f88bea80d3affd6c06f0b29965c70.pngimage.thumb.png.4184c43aa9e56156c78e9131cd2b4d10.png

    At the moment Sunday is looking to be the best day of this drier and warmer spell, with temps in the mid to high 20s:

    image.thumb.png.853ef4dfd72fb557ac890209144c18f5.png

    Cooler pool of air gets drawn down on Tuesday, which really drops the temperatures:

    image.thumb.png.6a6cdf5131e936ac6be61837b62733c6.pngimage.thumb.png.fd080296acf66a37d2a6c82b9a866e05.png


     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Still some uncertainty for me after next Monday, but the weekend looks sure to be a fairly hot one now - generally mid to high 20s for most - very outside chance of the first 30C of the year but that high still needs a little kick to the east before the North Sea mixes in, which isn't out of the question by Monday/Tuesday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.0ddabd7c55483d981e17f3b50bb5dd6d.png

    Not sure if ARPEGE is barking up the wrong tree, but it shows 30c on Saturday afternoon in the Midlands.

    For a bit of comparison - in my area for Saturday the BBC has 23c, ECM 24c, GEM 24c, GFS 25c, Met Office 25c, UKV 26c ARPEGE 27c.....who'd be a forecaster eh!

    For comparison - latest UKV has a UK wide max of 27c in numerous locations:

    image.thumb.png.571408eefc36c671b13cdb04fb89552b.png
     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Pretty much none of the models are no great shakes after Monday, ECM quickly drops a shallow upper trough down Monday night and then piles in another trough from the west Wednesday/Thursday. Let’s hope the weekend doesn’t start to get chewed into….

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Just remember one thing guys before we start slating the gfs it was the gfs that picked up on the annoying trough dropping down from norway and now ecm is the one following it and lagging behind!!make the most of the heat over the next 5 days!!after that it still looks pretty good but not the heat and humidity some are looking for!!remember it could still end up like the scorching ukmo and the trough could end up further east again!!!im putting the 00z ukmo as the outlier this morning!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Deleted

     

    Edited by Timmytour
    Sorry guys....wrong thread! Trying to post and listen to a Webinair at the same time!
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This morning's GFS 00Z looks a little different. But there's still plenty of fine and warm weather in the offing: 🌞

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And the corresponding GEFS ensembles are also better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick?😁

    t850Suffolk.png   t2mSuffolk.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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