model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Iceman2606]

ECM 12z going for some potentially very hot weather as we go into next week. 850hpa temps getting close to 20°C in the south which would bring surface temps well into the thirties if it verified.

An extreme outcome & 10 days away so unlikely for now.

[sheikhy]

Latest icon 18z has high pressure further south and west compared to last run!!still good but high not directly over the uk!!something to watch maybe?!!

[ribster]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

People were looking well beyond 144 hrs for this upcoming spell?

If it's there in the modelling it's there to be discussed.

Indeed, only yesterday there was talk of this not being a few days affair, instead 10 to 14 day hot spell I believe. Which is no more guaranteed than 10 to 14 days of the opposite. So if +144 can be discussed for that, then surely it can be discussed when presenting an alternative view?

Edited July 12, 2021 by ribster
Typo

[Mike Poole]

Well I just cant fault the GFS 18z so far, up to T186:

And anything beyond that ( or, well, even before that ) is FI, so it is looking good.  Let’s look for the breakdown in a weeks time, rather than now, hey?

Edited July 12, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

Steady as she goes this morning. UKMO and especially GEM a pretty good match against last nights ECM. GFS turns cooler a bit more quickly however the Op run is a sharp outlier in removing the warmth. 
 

Looking at the detail, GEMs a great run a gives us 7days of 27C down here in the central south & south west, overnight mins start getting warm too with them staying into the 20s over large parts of the south by the end of the run. 

Edited July 13, 2021 by Alderc

[mb018538]

Looks as if there is a growing trend for the high to drift east into  the early to middle part of next week as a trough approaches from the SW. This has the effect of drawing an airmass more typically associated with hot UK weather from the S/SE. Different models vary with the position/timings of this of course, but one to keep a keen eye on:







 

 

Edited July 13, 2021 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 0h becomes increasingly anticyclonic and warmer,  great charts from the 0z across the board!!...and, I think I’ll bank T+144 hours! ? Shirley worth a Boom??...or even Boom! Boom!!!....I think this is going to be an amazing period for model watching..and sun-worshipping   !!   

 

Edited July 13, 2021 by Jon Snow

[sheikhy]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The Ukmo 0h becomes increasingly anticyclonic and warmer,  great charts from the 0z across the board!!...and, I think I’ll bank T+144 hours! ? Shirley worth a Boom??...or even Boom! Boom!!!....I think this is going to be an amazing period for model watching..and sun-worshipping   !!   

 

Cmon gimme that boom 144 hour chart from ecm!!!!!!

[sheikhy]

Ukmo best of the bunch this morning!!ecm still good but not as scorching as ukmo!!didnt expect to see a trough to dry and drop in from norway on gfs!lets hope that dont gather pace!!

[mushymanrob]

If we arent supposed to look beyond t144 then both myself and @johnholmes would have nothing to talk about, because the anomalies start at t144 !!! lol.

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo best of the bunch this morning!!ecm still good but not as scorching as ukmo!!didnt expect to see a trough to dry and drop in from norway on gfs!lets hope that dont gather pace!!

The GFS is disappointing but is out on its own this morning with that trough.

ECM looks great until Wednesday but nothing like last night for the rest of the week unfortunately- hopefully just an outlier from Wednesday onwards.

[Frosty.]

Even by T+240 hours the ECM 0z operational would still produce approx mid 20’s c depending on sunshine amounts of course...wow, how disappointing..lol!

 

 

[Guest]

A weird ECM run with some very surpressed temps and no Big Bang breakdown, lots of different scenarios out there currently but everything looks good until at least Tuesday next week.
 

[Bradley in Kent]

Good morning all,

RE: FI, I'd agree 144hrs is a good time to go by, but if we're in an Atlantic pattern I'd extend that up to say 240hrs. Conversely if a non-Atlantic set up is on the cards (cold spell in winter or hot spell in Summer), I'd bring it closer to 120hrs or even 72hrs given how often the wheels come off such spells last moment!

I'd say it's simply because the Atlantic is the dominant force meaning easy to model when in power, not so easy to model when it's not in power or potentially about to lose it. 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A weird ECM run with some very surpressed temps and no Big Bang breakdown, lots of different scenarios out there currently but everything looks good until at least Tuesday next week.
 

It's been very pessimistic throughout this upcoming spell on temperatures. Aggressive with cloud amounts. I've just checked the ECM data versus actual forecasts here and it's below pretty much all the way.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z ensemble mean, like the op suggests some flattening out of the pattern towards day 10 with fresher conditions from the west but still on the warm side...however, that’s well into FI and will chop and change, hopefully the high summer conditions will be extended but just look at these mean charts in the reliable timeframe and further ahead!...July has frankly been a bit meh so far, but there’s a superb spell of settled summery weather right around the corner!

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Having looked through the Models here's what I think is in store for the next week and a bit, getting more generalised as we get along. 

GFS

In the GFS we get the theme of the Atlantic high that is here to stay however we do see the weakening of the Atlantic fed high from around 190 hours onwards which allows for a low to go through without any real boundary such as the weather has been recently. 

GEM

GEM however doesn't weaken the Atlantic high and so as it moves across it becomes a Spanish Plume and begins interacting with that weaker DAM creating a boundary for storms forming there. 

As we are getting into the territory with Spanish Plumes that there are less and less chances of it happening with good Thunderstorms finishing it off with only really 2 months remaining of good Spanish Plume territory it is beggining to become nervous watching the Models, however they are now closer in sight on some of the Models like GEM. 

[summer blizzard]

Although there are differences in how it happens it's interesting that the models today fo shift the high by day 9 so what breakdown we get has moved a day forwards.

[sheikhy]

Good news on 06z gfs the annoying trough is gone near norway now!!!so high centred over the uk and 850s stay between 10 and 12 degrees widely!!

[Scorcher]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good news on 06z gfs the annoying trough is gone near norway now!!!so high centred over the uk and 850s stay between 10 and 12 degrees widely!!

I think we all knew it was going to be way off the mark with that feature- the GFS really has been all over the place with its op runs over the last few days.

The ECM has been rock solid mostly with a few smaller differences between runs.

[Guest]

GFS 06Z pretty good until next Tuesday/Wednesday in the south, mid-high 20s widely through the weekend, 30C possible Mon/Tues then the breakdown is very meh and we just fall back in the same old north westerly pattern. Hopefully this is not what happens and plenty of time for this to change.

[summer blizzard]

Day 9 chart again does suggest the breakdown so it does look like like next Thursday is the day to monitor.

 

[Guest]

GFS Ops was pretty aggressive with its breakdown through the middle of next week. Many of the ensembles hang to the warmth through most of next week.

[Frosty.]

Here’s a small sample from the GEFS 6z mean, as you can see, it’s showing a very settled summery spell well into the outlook period!!!.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I have a feeling this is going to be one of them occasions where the breakdown will keep being pushed back. 
Prepare for a lengthy hot spell lasting for at least two weeks as I dont think a ridge so strong and intense as the one coming is going to crumble as quickly as GFS makes out.