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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Seriously hot looking charts from the ECM 12z operational...Shirley this will become a hot 🥵 topic soon? 😉 😱 ☀️.. 

    4E9A11A1-C8C4-4FBC-90B2-4AC49A96FB47.thumb.png.a7ed414c76b1a91fc185f44f2ab7bfbb.pngED96839A-020C-47DF-8675-D428160D9963.thumb.png.bcb8d124fbb540d945b73d07b0114d39.pngF37FEF6E-B6E3-4F96-B128-A773529F788D.thumb.png.bae5a552bd7c9daf99aecc751697a65b.png9271133E-4267-4B51-8C97-B3FC2BAAC542.thumb.png.6d6e0c1182b20908150d3db1d9cca511.pngA2BBCDF6-39EA-4422-B1C5-252D4A3C970C.thumb.png.4e32af6c827b2c527f6dc9840c92a4d7.pngAAFF285D-FAB9-4F95-A7C8-A23E2DDA4924.thumb.jpeg.b26dbb07525955a286d7574299957a4a.jpeg

    Yes! The ECM finally comes up with a run that shuts out the North Sea from the weekend onwards, and consequently gets the *raw* temps into the 30Cs next week.

    Small, small margins, but a noteable heatwave is in grasp if the high/low combination falls correctly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Probably a hot outlier though.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Seriously hot looking charts from the ECM 12z operational...Shirley this will become a hot 🥵 topic soon? 😉 😱 ☀️.. it just did! 😹 😃 

    4E9A11A1-C8C4-4FBC-90B2-4AC49A96FB47.thumb.png.a7ed414c76b1a91fc185f44f2ab7bfbb.pngED96839A-020C-47DF-8675-D428160D9963.thumb.png.bcb8d124fbb540d945b73d07b0114d39.pngF37FEF6E-B6E3-4F96-B128-A773529F788D.thumb.png.bae5a552bd7c9daf99aecc751697a65b.png9271133E-4267-4B51-8C97-B3FC2BAAC542.thumb.png.6d6e0c1182b20908150d3db1d9cca511.pngA2BBCDF6-39EA-4422-B1C5-252D4A3C970C.thumb.png.4e32af6c827b2c527f6dc9840c92a4d7.pngAAFF285D-FAB9-4F95-A7C8-A23E2DDA4924.thumb.jpeg.b26dbb07525955a286d7574299957a4a.jpeg4E80F33C-E8AD-48E7-8012-F4AB444E28F6.thumb.jpeg.dd30d503ce7715ed27e0f53feb294848.jpeg

    Manchester with uppers of 17c should squeeze into 30c at very least. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Yes! The ECM finally comes up with a run that shuts out the North Sea from the weekend onwards, and consequently gets the *raw* temps into the 30Cs next week.

    Small, small margins, but a noteable heatwave is in grasp if the high/low combination falls correctly.

    While this is just one run seems like once again without any real warmth all summer and any real effort we could pull upper teens 850s and all of sudden be looking at max temps well into the 30s. 
     

    Additionally the ECM this evening would turn extremely humid, stagnant airmass and ground conditions in the south are bordering on saturated would be ripe for dew points potentially above 20C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ECM day 10 would probably deliver something close to the 35c mark towards the south east with a thundery breakdown developing later in the day. It would be a solid spell regardless if that came off.

    Looking at the ensembles the upper ridge does seem to drift east of the U.K. into next week so the chance of winds shifting towards the south east looks possible. However the position of the high through the U.K. initially will determine how quickly the surface conditions warm up for eastern areas in particular. A slightly flatter solution might not be too bad as long as you don’t bring fronts within touching difference of the north west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Thinking of the seemingly nutty prediction of 'the coldest August for many years', I thought I'd post these NH profiles. Doesn't look likely, does it?🤔

    npsh500mean-120.png npsh500mean-240.png   npsh500mean-384.png   😁

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    I took some flak last evening for daring to suggest the 12z outputs weren't a series of "belters" (whatever that means).

    To be fair, I was looking beyond the current settled and warm spell likely later this week and over the weekend. Let's see where we are at T+240 (Thursday 22nd):

    Charts from GFS OP,  GFS Control, JMA, GEM and ECM.

    image.thumb.png.8f775ccfba2aa1fb999a49fb70e209fd.pngimage.thumb.png.5f6504287f99a02be72f50d309950563.pngimage.thumb.png.e071c7449a8f716009438b0463db3e86.pngimage.thumb.png.8c2c9fc318ff8d051dd7c19688874068.pngimage.thumb.png.5b97380d1a49b7f0ab931c9817dba839.png

    It looks as though the very pleasant warm and settled spell due from Thursday onward isn't going to be prolonged - nor in truth do I see noteworthy heat but it will be very nice.

    Into next week, the heights which move to the NE decline or dissipate and LP threatens to move in again from the west. Now, depending on how that evolves, we might get a brief advection of hot air from the south (ECM puts the +16 isotherm across southern and eastern England at T+240 so that would be 30c or similar). 

    GFS OP just doesn't do that - the really hot air stays to the south and by the end of the run, to be fair, the +28 isotherm is over southern Spain (which is what you'd expect).

    All this is still a very long way from resolution to be fair.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, stodge said:

    It looks as though the very pleasant warm and settled spell due from Thursday onward isn't going to be prolonged - nor in truth do I see noteworthy heat but it will be very nice.

    Into next week, the heights which move to the NE decline or dissipate and LP threatens to move in again from the west. Now, depending on how that evolves, we might get a brief advection of hot air from the south (ECM puts the +16 isotherm across southern and eastern England at T+240 so that would be 30c or similar). 

    GFS OP just doesn't do that - the really hot air stays to the south and by the end of the run, to be fair, the +28 isotherm is over southern Spain (which is what you'd expect).

    All this is still a very long way from resolution to be fair.

    Your view, or are the models indicating it?  Any breakdown is well into FI

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Tonight’s outs.. ecm moreso should brighten the mood🙏🤦‍♂️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿😟.. fantastic outs and no doubt.. the 1st 30/30+ imminent!.. HP- it’s COMING HOME 🤘

    ACEDF0BD-6875-43BF-BC55-858CF4A8A7FD.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Your view, or are the models indicating it?  Any breakdown is well into FI

    Well, yes, if you consider FI to be T+144, that's valid.

    I've gone out to T+240 and I'm discussing that output which to me doesn't suggest a prolonged dry and settled spell.

    I did also say there was a lot to be resolved.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, stodge said:

    Well, yes, if you consider FI to be T+144, that's valid.

    I've gone out to T+240 and I'm discussing that output which to me doesn't suggest a prolonged dry and settled spell.

    I did also say there was a lot to be resolved.

    No-one would question you if you said HP and heat will dominate until September. That's the nature of this thread.

    FWIW I think maybe 7 days of warmth and dry weather will be about right. ECM mean at day 9/10 certainly doesn't preclude a thundery breakdown.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Well, yes, if you consider FI to be T+144, that's valid.

    I've gone out to T+240 and I'm discussing that output which to me doesn't suggest a prolonged dry and settled spell.

    I did also say there was a lot to be resolved.

    Well FI is 144 in most people’s definition. And even 144 is pushing it sometimes!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    Well FI is 144 in most people’s definition. And even 144 is pushing it sometimes!

    People were looking well beyond 144 hrs for this upcoming spell?

    If it's there in the modelling it's there to be discussed.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    No-one would question you if you said HP and heat will dominate until September. That's the nature of this thread.

    FWIW I think maybe 7 days of warmth and dry weather will be about right. ECM mean at day 9/10 certainly doesn't preclude a thundery breakdown.

    Oh yes they would!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    People were looking well beyond 144 hrs for this upcoming spell?

    If it's there in the modelling it's there to be discussed.

    I agree with that - we all look beyond 144, but usually just for fun!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Posted (edited)

    I would say we have the best warm spell coming up so far this Summer...so let's enjoy it and worry about any breakdown  closer to the time...Very warm at times and perhaps an increased risk of thundery activity towards day 10...but it should be remaining warm throughout...So heres the ECM mean and graphs guys.

    @Jon Snow you beat me to it you bad boy 🤟🤣

    EDM1-120.gif

    EDM1-144.gif

    EDM1-168.gif

    EDM1-192.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    graphe0_00_286_104___.png

    graphe1_00_286_104___.png

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    I would punt at somewhere like Gloucester perhaps. However if the ECM is right then that might be academic given the charts for the start of next week. The heat reaching further and further east. The first ECM run that toys with a pretty significant heatwave if it comes off. Three straight days with the 16c isotherm across the south with slack east to south east winds. Low thirties easily.

    I do wonder if the current wet (locally soaking) conditions in parts of the S/SE could hold back maxima at least initially. It’s going to take several fully sunny days to dry out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    No-one would question you if you said HP and heat will dominate until September. That's the nature of this thread.

    FWIW I think maybe 7 days of warmth and dry weather will be about right. ECM mean at day 9/10 certainly doesn't preclude a thundery breakdown.

    I’d love to see the reaction if you made the reverse of that comment in January!  All I know is that is turning settled, and with high pressure floating around the UK, things will happen slowly thereafter, the decent spell looks longer to me, but reading between the models with thundery interludes.  

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    latest anomalies support a shallow trough to our southwest/biscay, with high pressure to our near east .... imho that gives support the the ECM 12z and GFS 06z for day ten.

     

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Variations upon a theme tonight but the GFS, GEM and Euro operations all once again try break the pattern around day 10 albeit the GFS does not strengthen the primary jet the same way as GEM/Euro.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    latest anomalies support a shallow trough to our southwest/biscay, with high pressure to our near east .... imho that gives support the the ECM 12z and GFS 06z for day ten.

     

    814day.03.gif

    That looks a beauty if heat and sun is your thing!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    People were looking well beyond 144 hrs for this upcoming spell?

    If it's there in the modelling it's there to be discussed.

    Don't tell me you never look past 144 hrs in winter Crewe...😜

    I bet if there was a Beast from the East showing at 168 hrs you would be all over it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Don't tell me you never look past 144 hrs in winter Crewe...😜

    I bet if there was a Beast from the East showing at 168 hrs you would be all over it!

    Mate a beast at t300 hours and everyone would be all over it😜🤣!!!!

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