Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 11th July onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Pete my boy..the 6z looks pretty good.. mind you it could be wrong,I could be wrong the moon could be made of cheese...who knows anymore.

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-282.png

gfs-1-276.png

Sadly Matt, I'm starting to believe this summer will the first since 2018 that doesn't reach the Hot 100! 

image.thumb.png.beef056ef61d75f8e0af7aefb9694b47.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
On 25/07/2021 at 13:39, MATTWOLVES said:

...my point as always been all data beyond that 10 day window becomes very uncertain,and there will always be that element of bias towards climatology the further ahead we go.


Erm ....
 

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-282.png

gfs-1-276.png



I must confess, im a little bit confused here Ted !
(meant as levity)..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:


Erm ....
 



I must confess, im a little bit confused here Ted !
(meant as levity)..

Yes mate and that still stands...I do usually point out its a long way off and subject to major corrections. But let's face it...you can't beat a little eye candy.

I confuse myself with my posts on a regular basis

@mushymanrob What are the noaa charts making of the Low pressure next mid week?

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
30 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes mate and that still stands...I do usually point out its a long way off and subject to major corrections. But let's face it...you can't beat a little eye candy.

I confuse myself with my posts on a regular basis

@mushymanrob What are the noaa charts making of the Low pressure next mid week?

I posted the latest last night, remember? you said you couldnt argue with it!..

They are being a bit inconsistent, but generally still predict a westerly upper flow, but by the look of it with pressure trying to build. Id have thought the outlook is average or slightly above. Of course being the mean chart for the period they cover wont show transitory features like a ridge or a shortwave low.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I was hoping to say it’s an ICONIC start to the 12z but then realised it’s closer to IRONIC?... ...anyway, at least it warms up longer term as we scoop up some continental air?....I’m just trying out some blue sky thinking.... ..outside the box   

A5FCC85D-8097-4DBD-AC8B-0F912047D2BD.thumb.png.8fec61f2c082e8337694ba308388674c.pngE0C1B999-12DD-4A71-AE76-FB830F6830FD.thumb.png.a06eede71a5e767380f98f0698512a59.png7C60640E-3EDE-4E7C-8BF5-26DB2659AF74.thumb.png.b5c13c4088015d74d5c13ea8b224ae11.png

Edited by jon snow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think the GFS maybe onto something with the pattern BUT IMO is trying to push it through a little too rapidly (say by 3-5 days too quick) I do feel the ECM is being somewhat too flat though with the pattern, its not been too flat all summer (hence the wetness in the south and into Europe due to diving lows getting stuck in quite a slack flow overall.) so I'm not too sure its going to become quite as flat as that either.

This leaves us IMO in a bit of a middle ground for the 2nd week, where I feel we will see influence both from an Azores high and also LP to our NW, with the exact dimensions and extent of each influence still yet to be decided. I do suspect that by the 16-21st August the Azores high will really start to more strongly establish particularly into the south but for now the ensembles seem to be unsure to what extent that occurs again.

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Just catching up with clusters - definite signs of an improvement by D8, the ECM op was actually one of the most pessimistic for the timescale:

image.thumb.png.a88f873bd85b4876d10c30afbcc3fba8.png

Some sort of mini-trough around by mid August, could spoil the party. Just can't get the heights up for any length of time over Europe!

image.thumb.png.d1ce8560ef042e337bf9bb94eca79f08.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Interesting to read the Exeter update regarding that Low next mid week..they seem to think it spreads SE later next week! It appears the GFS 12z is keen to keep it away,with better conditions holding on further South!

@mushymanrobsorry mate, yes i realise you posted them last night.. it appears me memory is going along with everything else now

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-0-228.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Interesting to read the Exeter update regarding that Low next mid week..they seem to think it spreads SE later next week! It appears the GFS 12z is keen to keep it away,with better conditions holding on further South!

@mushymanrobsorry mate, yes i realise you posted them last night.. it appears me memory is going along with everything else now

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-0-228.png

Mmm crucial summer time being eaten away rapidly.. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm crucial summer time being eaten away rapidly.. 

That more settled mid month period perhaps becoming final 3rd! I suppose could have a decent September though.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

According to the UKMO perhaps we could have a more direct influence from Low pressure towards the end of next week.

12_144_500hpa_height.png

12_168_500hpa_height.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

That more settled mid month period perhaps becoming final 3rd! I suppose could have a decent September 

The typical calm down in September that comes too late.. like a northerly in early March!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Meanwhile, back at the ranch..according to the GEFS 12z it may not be long before something called high pressure pays the u k a welcome visit?! ☀️ ...should see some blue sky!

FDE88838-2A23-44F8-91E7-778834B92BB2.thumb.png.8b4c61777e2e67aaf34952004adb2d4d.pngC74FA5F0-6A83-4969-AFC0-20642D06BDF8.thumb.png.d5b2c5d905b2f050749359ac37d0d8cd.png92C90DE3-830C-4352-A525-95EB55CC3E9E.thumb.png.276099229bec241898e0a126ef4879ae.png70C2B1DD-08B8-4390-A79F-B450E9B1F5EF.thumb.png.819510187ad73ba23e4858079a80f3e1.pngFF7BEC55-8F54-453B-9BED-3DA53E42AA78.thumb.png.911d4332f3c0af0518ac8272c404f740.png1E3C67A1-2358-4FE3-A8CA-B2D80F25130F.thumb.png.c5e79c072503972ef34432defd1f1cc4.pngBCE48FD3-D7BE-474B-A3B0-98AF5C14CAA7.thumb.png.7c740ba49b49b569255e53cce410982d.pngF30DF5CE-3B0D-4C20-B634-65235F725C5F.thumb.png.8bea2b6069a9500cee14a06b72944139.png42E5C0D0-C53D-4B18-82E9-ED0AEFEB8607.thumb.png.7db288113d7ed784f067bbb116515277.png7B8F89A2-4293-4F51-97ED-51631849498A.thumb.png.274ec3aca8d34eb4f61b91a9c1594dab.png7EFAFEC4-BC4D-4177-8BF1-AD831E7DD588.thumb.png.cc595fbbf2d86063024311d699b45a7c.png8A15657B-8DED-42FD-BE91-A96A36C42887.thumb.png.189db396951fdae2d950f213abd4ea2b.png

 

Edited by jon snow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I’m not overly surprised that the settled stuff isn’t really materialising in a strong manner. The met office have also canned this in their latest update today, which isn’t a big surprise either. Just the odd nice day here and there, but I can’t see anything like the back end of July happening again this month.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, mb018538 said:

I’m not overly surprised that the settled stuff isn’t really materialising in a strong manner. The met office have also canned this in their latest update today, which isn’t a big surprise either. Just the odd nice day here and there, but I can’t see anything like the back end of July happening again this month.

Very warm a low chance apparently! Just a few days back and it was hot spells quite probable! Always a concern when a backtrack begins...wouldn't be suprised to see some decent spells at times though...but tbh my confidence in Hot is starting to wane a tad.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very little optimism even from those who are way more positive than me. 

A strong build of heights looking like we’ll be lucky to scrap a transient ridge.

Almost certainly nailed on to be the wettest summer since 2012 down here, certainly the least warm spells since then as less. Only one half plume and little chance of anything in the first half of August reaching 25C, maybe apart from sheltered parts of the east. It’s rapidly turning into absolute flop. I think it’s becoming increasingly easy to build an argument that 2021 when you consider the unusably cold April followed by one of the worst Mays in recent history is worse than anything 2007/11/12 offered up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
27 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Very little optimism even from those who are way more positive than me. 

A strong build of heights looking like we’ll be lucky to scrap a transient ridge.

Almost certainly nailed on to be the wettest summer since 2012 down here, certainly the least warm spells since then as less. Only one half plume and little chance of anything in the first half of August reaching 25C, maybe apart from sheltered parts of the east. It’s rapidly turning into absolute flop. I think it’s becoming increasingly easy to build an argument that 2021 when you consider the unusably cold April followed by one of the worst Mays in recent history is worse than anything 2007/11/12 offered up. 

On a positive note I would be seriously shocked if next year is a repeat! Its not been too wet here overall,so I'm not going to overly complain..but only 1 plume event so far this Summer is a negative,especially as they were becoming quite commonplace. I wouldn't write the obituaries just yet though,not until the final 3rd anyway...but yeh,you lot down on the South Coast would be expecting one hell of a lot better at this time of the year!

Absolutely hammering it down here now...

@Tamaraget my room ready...im coming

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hey guys, how’s it going? 

An improvement from the current fayre - but steady as she goes, after viewing the 12z runs, let’s look at the T168 output from the main models:

B2F9D7E7-8C79-4C2A-AA93-F3CB0821CD23.thumb.png.38dec4bb19af881895feb50d8aa01e1d.png4979403F-B0BD-478A-8E57-246FAEC8915C.thumb.png.57b9a1dfbec64336c5a5e6cff554b5c5.png5EFDAC3A-EB64-4C2B-AF28-204A397B91CB.thumb.png.55c297c3d56bf28d82ced8e887d3107b.pngFF30C487-C16A-43BA-B3E4-83C4BA039325.thumb.gif.c5a9af50cf12109f644fbbfcd2f3f4b1.gif4AFBA5D6-ED04-498F-A2B8-BE989CF1D880.thumb.gif.066c0e33bf3c189695208e9f49315ad1.gif

Pick the bones out of that.  There is some real uncertainty there with GFS, ECM and JMA making the best push with high pressure but for totally different reasons!  You’ve got to feel that until this uncertainty is resolved, it is not worth looking too far ahead on the op runs, ECM for example at T240, has this:

C9AE7999-5916-4424-B09A-C415A964C962.thumb.gif.a40394efb72e4f29519cff2170f8ba36.gif

Interesting.  

I think longer term prospects are mixed, but by no means the washout some suggest.  

Finally a look at SST anomalies, I’ve gone for the global plot this time:

CFF76A41-E420-41CD-836A-ADA18028B9AA.thumb.jpeg.0a9dbeeb255f8a778644f37c74fb0802.jpeg

Warm anomaly in most of N Atlantic and UK, should promote UK temperatures higher than average for the rest of summer all other things being average (which they won’t be of course!).  

But further forward, I couldn’t help noticing, after that dreadful winter a few years ago, that the Indian Ocean Dipole (highlighted) is looking negative.  Phew! 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The typical calm down in September that comes too late.. like a northerly in early March!

How about a northerly in September. 

cfs-0-858.png

Then a northeasterly later in the month...

cfs-0-1218.png

Great winter synoptics, and not beyond the realms of possibility in a La Nina autumn.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The typical calm down in September that comes too late.. like a northerly in early March!

The difference is 0C - i.e. snow potential!  In March the chance of proper snow recedes into the distance, unless exceptional synoptics (2018).  Whereas September can give and give in terms of summer like weather, it just isn’t quite as hot and the days are shorter.  I’ve always said to anyone wanting to arrange an outdoor event well into the future, when asked the question when is the best chance of fine weather - second week in September!

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

I posted the latest last night, remember? you said you couldnt argue with it!..

They are being a bit inconsistent, but generally still predict a westerly upper flow, but by the look of it with pressure trying to build. Id have thought the outlook is average or slightly above. Of course being the mean chart for the period they cover wont show transitory features like a ridge or a shortwave low.

And thats 3 consecutive runs now on the 8-14 day that has a mean westerly upper flow with no ridging or troughing over the UK in that timeframe.

However there are signs of a surface weak positive pressure anomaly.

 

So above average but unsettled?

 

Sorry, theres still no lengthy hot spell, but no monsoon either

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...