model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

I think more to the point, stating that unless the anomalies support an outcome, the outcome isn't happening, is rather careless. It's obviously worth keeping hopes and expectations in check but there's a whole lot more to consider. A few days ago, a Scandi high wasn't even in the picture to my knowledge, so all to play for in my opinion.

 

I agree: often, IMO, there's a multitude of ways in which the weather (and ordinary models) can conform to what the anomaly charts are showing; the 'envelope' the anomalies provide can be a relatively wide one?

Edited August 2, 2021 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Again the 6z continues with the more settled theme moving into next week and beyond..Going on that mean I would say much better conditions away from the far NW,where these areas could be more prone towards lower heights towards the Iceland area.

[mushymanrob]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree: often, IMO, there's a multitude of ways in which the weather (and ordinary models) can conform to what the anomaly charts are showing; the 'envelope' the anomalies provide is a quite a wide one?

Hmmmm .... well not really ... depends what you mean by a "wide envolope".

 

[Frosty.]

Just been looking through the GEFS 6z members...selective..moi??? !!! ...summers coming guys!

 

ps..wots an envolope?  

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by jon snow

[knocker]

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Let's be honest here,there have been a few times the noaa charts have not been in tandem with the Ops or means..The success rates of all of the data becomes less confident for the Summer periods in general.

Those noaa charts and the current means are completely at loggerheads again,and there's no way I will be ruling out a much better period next week based solely upon them!

Will be interesting to see what tonight's EC46 brings and the next run of means from the 6Z suite.

But for now I'm completely going against those noaa charts! We will see.

For obvious reasons there  is no way I'm getting involved in this debate but the highlighted comment is a tad disingenuous. The gfs/ecm ext mean anomalies and NOAA are all very much on the same page. All show the tpv ext and quite strong ridginig eastern Europe as the main players with a strong westerly upper flow weakening and diverging in the eastern Atlantic. This does allow the det runs quite a few options regarding the surface analysis pertinent to the UK

Edited August 2, 2021 by knocker

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Hmmmm .... well not really ... depends what you mean by a "wide envolope".

 

I take your point there, Rob . . . I was debating whether to add in the word 'relatively'. I should have done so!

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

The Scandinavian high was first shown starting to build on the NOAA charts 3 days ago, and has increased in size since. That may be viewed as suspicious and indeed with some validity, hence i went on to say that further runs were needed to confirm this.
In the 7 odd years ive been using the Anomaly charts, i have yet to see them fail to pick up a signal except when all the models have been completely wrong (twice if my memory serves me well). So saying "unless/until they do ", is, id suggest, perfectly valid as it doesnt preclude changes. What we do here (as you well know) is comment on what the models are showing..... that is exactly what i did. What i dont appreciate however, are responses that are no more than "blah" posts.. If anyone thinks the content of my post is wrong/inaccurate, then provide a reasoned supported counter argument - dismissing it just because it doesnt support what a member wants to happen just for the sake of it is rude, is not constructive and achieves nothing.

Id suggest that anyone not wanting to read my posts based on the anomaly charts, simply block my posts so they dont have to read them, meanwhile the others that do, can do without it descending into an argument.

No need to take offence as my comment wasn't a dig. Nobody's poo-pooing your ability and experience in analysis. Merely, pinning one's basis on one variable is rather narrow-minded, however accurate or not it's perceived to be.

Likewise, if you can't handle people questioning your posts, perhaps a blog would be better suited rather than a forum... Throwing a tizz is also not constructive and achieves nothing.

Moving on...

[mushymanrob]

17 minutes ago, MP-R said:

No need to take offence as my comment wasn't a dig. Nobody's poo-pooing your ability and experience in analysis. Merely, pinning one's basis on one variable is rather narrow-minded, however accurate or not it's perceived to be.

Likewise, if you can't handle people questioning your posts, perhaps a blog would be better suited rather than a forum... Throwing a tizz is also not constructive and achieves nothing.

Moving on...

eh? i wasnt offended... lol.. merely pointing out when the scandi high was first shown

I use the anomaly charts as a starting point, as in my experience they are the most accurate data base over that period of time. Then i "fit" the rest around them, the reason i like them and use them is because there is so much data available to view, and most of us havnt the time to analyse every source , these charts are possibly the simplest and quickest way to get closest to the solution.

I do blog.... and its a fast growing highly successful and popular site.


I covered your other point in my last reply.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Absolutely laughable the difference between the 6z and the 12z at a similar timeframe! If that's backed up by the mean I will bow down!

[Frosty.]

Houston we have a problem!..or at least the Gfs 12z op does... ...anyway..do I look worried?..of course not, you can’t see me!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Houston we have a problem!..or at least the Gfs 12z op does... ...anyway..do I look worried?..of course not, you can’t see me!  

My guess is mate it's gonna be a major outlier! 

[Eagle Eye]

Don't worry heat lovers, I'm sure this will just be an outlier... 

*Sweats and looks nervously away*

 

[Methuselah]

Phew! Just in time for mid-month:    

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Don't worry heat lovers, I'm sure this will just be an outlier... 

*Sweats and looks nervously away*

 

GFS does what it does best! Makes us look stupid...takes away our presents!! Then says sorry lads here are your just deserts!

[mushymanrob]

36 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Absolutely laughable the difference between the 6z and the 12z at a similar timeframe! If that's backed up by the mean I will bow down!

If its any consolation Matt, i dont think the Anomalies support that either! lol.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here's my take guys...There is some ensemble support for the op..but more support for a more settled outlook.And the op does seem to be quite a bit at the most extreme end. The mean around day 9 looks quite promising.

Thanks @mushymanrob that made me laugh..I suppose a sense of humour is needed in this forecasting lark...especially when your a passionate wanna be like me.

Edited August 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

Spot the snot:     

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The mean is looking decent. Perhaps intrusions into the far NW at times from those lower Heights anchored over the Iceland locale. But for sure you would say going on the latest means perhaps some decent spells further South towards mid month and beyond at times. Not to say those means are correct or that I've got this analysis correct...so let's see how this plays out folks.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z cheered me up..turns into a GEM!!! ...  

 

[Guest]

Been away for a few days and sat at the airport and thought I’d look at the models for the first time since Thursday. Looks pretty rubbish for at least 7-8days, any pattern change looks 50/50 and little chance of anything warm, sunny and prolonged. Mean GFS dragged upwards by a couple of big outliers. Average to below in reality, will be hard to escape a 4th straight month of poor conditions in the south.

 

 

ECM at day 9 not looking great, negatively tilted high is really only going to lead to one thing.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Alderc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Been away for a few days and sat at the airport and thought I’d look at the models for the first time since Thursday. Looks pretty rubbish for at least 7-8days, any pattern change looks 50/50 and little chance of anything warm, sunny and prolonged. Mean GFS dragged upwards by a couple of big outliers. Average to below in reality, will be hard to escape a 4th straight month of poor conditions in the south.

 

Glad to have you back mate,you've already cheered up the place.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, day 10 is ..erm, erm, yeah, day 10!  ...next, nothing to see here, move along...

Edited August 2, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, day 10 is ..erm, erm, yeah, day 10!  

I wonder if this will have support though from the ens later? I'm looking forward to tonights EC46 moving forward..if all this goes t@ts up I'm retiring till the winter chase.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I wonder if this will have support though from the ens later? I'm looking forward to tonights EC46 moving forward..if all this goes t@ts up I'm retiring till the winter chase.

Both GFS and ECM have the same basic theme though, would be surprised is they are too far from means. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Both GFS and ECM have the same basic theme though, would be surprised is they are too far from means. 

Chris..the GFS op was a wild outlier just before mid month.