model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term ECM 12z operational, as far as the south is concerned there’s a good recovery in progress, most of the gunk is out of the way and once the trough to the NW departs, northern areas would improve too, the general alignment looks good, the Azores high / ridge looks primed...I think the general trend is back towards summery beyond the mixed period!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Last one from me.(I do have a life you know)

All looks good on the mean..August in like a lion and out like a beast

[summer blizzard]

Models to day 10 tonight.

As alluded to the Euro does try lift out in about a weak but forms a high over Scandinavia. This maintains a zonal westerly flow over the U.K. albeit north of recently.

GFS is similar but more cyclonic.

 

GFS amplifies the flow for a plume, currently an outlier.

 

[Frosty.]

No idea how I missed this from the Gfs 12z op! ..I blame model fatigue..yeah yeah any excuse Frosty! ...anyway, better late than never!...actually some of the recent perturbations have been showing a plume..so you never know!...but I will just be happy to see summery weather return whether it’s sunny and hot or thundery, hot and humid..or preferably BOTH! ⛈ ...perhaps I need more blue sky thinking!  

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Long way out to the 10 day range, but it's safe to say GFS and ECM  do not agree at all, chalk 'n cheese really, GEM more like ECM.

Bit too early for the i told you so and back slapping.

[snowsummer]

3 hours ago, swfc said:

Greatings folks. Bit unsettled atm but if you look back on this thread tammara called a settled warm spell mid month ie August. I'm not quite sure how she does it but it's knocking on the door for sure. Hope you are all well ad healthy. I had a covid episode and then a stroke but looking forward to the rest of this year and the new one weather and personally wise.

Once again the weather watching is put into perspective.  Hope youre well and truly  on your way to recovery, and looks like the weather may recover too giving you the chance to rest and recuperate  in the sun 

[Scorcher]

32 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

 

Bit too early for the i told you so and back slapping.

You know all about that- you're one of the best at it in the CET thread!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

38 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Long way out to the 10 day range, but it's safe to say GFS and ECM  do not agree at all, chalk 'n cheese really, GEM more like ECM.

Bit too early for the i told you so and back slapping.

This is where the ensembles come into play beyond the 5 day period..The extended mean out to day 14 remains above 1013mb which is normally the benchmark of measuring barometric pressure.

The signs look more positive..I think I will congratulate myself now,and if the trend is still my friend tomorrow...I may give myself a big slap on the back too..

Edited August 1, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECM 12z ensemble mean just keeps improving...and I expect it will continue to keep improving!  

[Allseasons-Si]

On 01/08/2021 at 18:15, swfc said:

Greatings folks. Bit unsettled atm but if you look back on this thread tammara called a settled warm spell mid month ie August. I'm not quite sure how she does it but it's knocking on the door for sure. Hope you are all well ad healthy. I had a covid episode and then a stroke but looking forward to the rest of this year and the new one weather and personally wise.

So sorry to here that mate and i wish you a sincere full recovery

and as @MATTWOLVES and @jon snow have mentioned there could be light at the end of the unsettled tunnel(well i hope so anyway),the gfs has been a mild outlier of late but i am residing on @Tamara's post's too that there will be finer settled weather from mid-month

here is the ten day EPS height,MLSP and temp anomalies and it is an improvement on recent's with a low to our NW hopefully lifting out >NW and so it looks like a NW/SE split type of scenario to me with the SE favoring the better/finer weather

i did mention the other day"watch this space" for a Scandi high to develop and this is gaining traction now

finally looking at the day nine EPS tactile and it does show higher pressure to our NW(red ens)

what ever the weather,...i hope this cheered you up @swfc and the rest of you

take care all

[Frosty.]

For sure it’s NOT a done deal that it will eventually settle down (Gfs 0z op for example)... but it will certainly try to settle down beyond the current mixed period. The GEFS 0z mean does slowly improve as the Azores high starts to wax but it doesn’t look straightforward, there are plenty of unsettled members which can’t be ignored!...BUT...seeing as I, and the majority desire a return of very warm summery weather, there is decent support for it..for sure!  

 

[Faronstream]

ECM shows where the cabinet shall stand, GFS0z drops the idea of high pressure dominated weather in both middle and long range. No inviting 850 temps either 

[Frosty.]

The ECM 0z operational longer term kind of proves the point I was making in my previous post, the weather is a wild beast and won’t do what we say it will do...and certainly not at day 10 + range!  

Heres a comparison between last nights 12z day 10 and this mornings 0z..we’ve taken a backward step!...but this doesn’t preclude a return of very summery weather, it could just be those Monday morning blues!  

[minus10]

42 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The ECM 0z operational longer term kind of proves the point I was making in my previous post, the weather is a wild beast and won’t do what we say it will do...and certainly not at day 10 + range!  

Heres a comparison between last nights 12z day 10 and this mornings 0z..we’ve taken a backward step!...but this doesn’t preclude a return of very summery weather, it could just be those Monday morning blues!  

The Azores high will not be getting any medals for its performance lately. When it comes down to it it is seemingly reluctant to pay us a proper visit thus allowing trough activity to gain ground  . Lets hope it can improve its performance to be at least in with a bronze chance...?

Edited August 2, 2021 by minus10

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS ensembles, though rather messy (pattern change?) clearly depict a warming trend, even a potentially very warm spell:

    

Edited August 2, 2021 by Ed Stone

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I detect some twitchy fingers in here this morning! Personally I feel the ops are doing there customary thing in showing various options...The means both look good for an improving picture! So I will remain confident until they begin to wobble.

Edited August 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Another great post from Matt ...I must admit my reactions to the 0z operational runs was a bit knee jerk!, the means look much better, and the ECM 0z ensemble mean day 10 in particular is better than yesterday!....so, I’ve slapped my wrist for being a negative Nelly! ...ouch... ..  

Edited August 2, 2021 by jon snow

[mushymanrob]

Well this will go down like a lead balloon (again)

But the current NOAA 8-14 day mean does not confirm some of the ops high pressure dominated outlook.  Whilst a couple of days early next week MIGHT be warm and summery, if this chart is correct (and it usually is) then any settled summery spell will be short lived.
The culprit is the building Scandinavian high, which wasnt expected, a feature that large and strong will shunt the Atlantic energy further South, over the UK instead of allowing it to exit to our North/Northeast.
For the period 9th - 15th, the mean upper flow is a moderate Westerly, but at least theres no strong negative pressure anomaly... to me this suggests pretty normal, average, unsettled but not overly wet for the mid month period.
Any route to sustained warmth/sun/heat would need the Scandinavian high to build Southwards and Southwestwards , and/or the Azores high to ridge to join with the Scandinavian high. This has been shown on a few operational runs, but currently the Anomalies do not support that, and until/unless they do - its not happening.
Now currently, its only one run, so to be more certain of this tonights and tomorrow nights runs would need to confirm this pattern.... and the "nay-sayers" will ignore this largely because it doesnt confirm their preferred weather type.
I want more dry sunny warmth/heat... i love it, but these charts do not support that in the next 2 weeks other than the aforementioned transitory ridge.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

31 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well this will go down like a lead balloon (again)

But the current NOAA 8-14 day mean does not confirm some of the ops high pressure dominated outlook.  Whilst a couple of days early next week MIGHT be warm and summery, if this chart is correct (and it usually is) then any settled summery spell will be short lived.
The culprit is the building Scandinavian high, which wasnt expected, a feature that large and strong will shunt the Atlantic energy further South, over the UK instead of allowing it to exit to our North/Northeast.
For the period 9th - 15th, the mean upper flow is a moderate Westerly, but at least theres no strong negative pressure anomaly... to me this suggests pretty normal, average, unsettled but not overly wet for the mid month period.
Any route to sustained warmth/sun/heat would need the Scandinavian high to build Southwards and Southwestwards , and/or the Azores high to ridge to join with the Scandinavian high. This has been shown on a few operational runs, but currently the Anomalies do not support that, and until/unless they do - its not happening.
Now currently, its only one run, so to be more certain of this tonights and tomorrow nights runs would need to confirm this pattern.... and the "nay-sayers" will ignore this largely because it doesnt confirm their preferred weather type.
I want more dry sunny warmth/heat... i love it, but these charts do not support that in the next 2 weeks other than the aforementioned transitory ridge.

Let's be honest here,there have been a few times the noaa charts have not been in tandem with the Ops or means..The success rates of all of the data becomes less confident for the Summer periods in general.

Those noaa charts and the current means are completely at loggerheads again,and there's no way I will be ruling out a much better period next week based solely upon them!

Will be interesting to see what tonight's EC46 brings and the next run of means from the 6Z suite.

But for now I'm completely going against those noaa charts! We will see.

Edited August 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mapantz]

If you want to keep going over old ground with this debate, please take it to your private messages.

Thanks.

[Eagle Eye]

What these models seem to be suggesting is that once this clears, that air from Europe and the Atlantic comes up and with it comes a chance for a plume to intefere with our weather. A low to the north of our island weakens as it cuts through but the main focus for now is how far inland the main plume event gets because at the moment we would struggle to even get into the high 20s let alone anywhere near the 30s. If it makes it further inland however we could be see higher temperatures and storms. That ow that moves through is too weak to create a boundary and so the plume would end with a whimper rather than a bang, so its more model watching from me for the next week or so.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Well this will go down like a lead balloon (again)

But the current NOAA 8-14 day mean does not confirm some of the ops high pressure dominated outlook.  Whilst a couple of days early next week MIGHT be warm and summery, if this chart is correct (and it usually is) then any settled summery spell will be short lived.
The culprit is the building Scandinavian high, which wasnt expected, a feature that large and strong will shunt the Atlantic energy further South, over the UK instead of allowing it to exit to our North/Northeast.
For the period 9th - 15th, the mean upper flow is a moderate Westerly, but at least theres no strong negative pressure anomaly... to me this suggests pretty normal, average, unsettled but not overly wet for the mid month period.
Any route to sustained warmth/sun/heat would need the Scandinavian high to build Southwards and Southwestwards , and/or the Azores high to ridge to join with the Scandinavian high. This has been shown on a few operational runs, but currently the Anomalies do not support that, and until/unless they do - its not happening.
Now currently, its only one run, so to be more certain of this tonights and tomorrow nights runs would need to confirm this pattern.... and the "nay-sayers" will ignore this largely because it doesnt confirm their preferred weather type.
I want more dry sunny warmth/heat... i love it, but these charts do not support that in the next 2 weeks other than the aforementioned transitory ridge.

I think there's room for both if it's mooted that things are looking a whole lot better for the second half of August.

I'd expect the anomalies to be picking this up in the next couple of days if that's the case....

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

I think there's room for both if it's mooted that things are looking a whole lot better for the second half of August.

I'd expect the anomalies to be picking this up in the next couple of days if that's the case....

yep, you might well be right, like i said, more runs needed to confirm. tbh i hope they do! i want warmth!

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

why did you feel the need to post this?..... the subject isnt up for an argument, all you have done here is yet again felt the need to disrespect a post you dont like without providing any supportative data...

 

I think more to the point, stating that unless the anomalies support an outcome, the outcome isn't happening, is rather careless. It's obviously worth keeping hopes and expectations in check but there's a whole lot more to consider. A few days ago, a Scandi high wasn't even in the picture to my knowledge, so all to play for in my opinion.

 

[mushymanrob]

43 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think more to the point, stating that unless the anomalies support an outcome, the outcome isn't happening, is rather careless. It's obviously worth keeping hopes and expectations in check but there's a whole lot more to consider. A few days ago, a Scandi high wasn't even in the picture to my knowledge, so all to play for in my opinion.

 

The Scandinavian high was first shown starting to build on the NOAA charts 3 days ago, and has increased in size since. That may be viewed as suspicious and indeed with some validity, hence i went on to say that further runs were needed to confirm this.
In the 7 odd years ive been using the Anomaly charts, i have yet to see them fail to pick up a signal except when all the models have been completely wrong (twice if my memory serves me well). So saying "unless/until they do ", is, id suggest, perfectly valid as it doesnt preclude changes. What we do here (as you well know) is comment on what the models are showing..... that is exactly what i did. What i dont appreciate however, are responses that are no more than "blah" posts.. If anyone thinks the content of my post is wrong/inaccurate, then provide a reasoned supported counter argument - dismissing it just because it doesnt support what a member wants to happen just for the sake of it is rude, is not constructive and achieves nothing.

Id suggest that anyone not wanting to read my posts based on the anomaly charts, simply block my posts so they dont have to read them, meanwhile the others that do, can do without it descending into an argument.