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Model output discussion 11th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    It would be wrong to say there are no signs of any settled conditions on the 12Z output this evening.

    It would be fair to say it's all still in FI but there are hints and trends of the trough finally aligning positively and allowing the Azores HP to ridge NE across southern Britain.

    The 850s are reasonable without being spectacular in far FI so if you want dry and warm (rather than dry and hot) there are clear signs of something more to your liking.

    However, the more immediate is less promising and we could still have 10-14 days of this unsettled spell to get through.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Don’t all rush to comment on the ECM 12z operational!...aha Matt beat me too it!...😉.. anyway there is some good news by day 10, the trough is filling 👏 👏  and the uppers (850’s) don’t look too terrible, 👏 the Azores high is erm, erm, in the Azores ... 🤔...but yeah, it looks poised to make its move. erm,  beyond day 10! 🙈...but that’s cool because mid month is when everything will change innit! 😜
    1F96965C-0F64-4B7E-96E4-5185251C2AC5.thumb.png.21b1741ae020cef17f5aa02e98bc43a8.png9293461E-0376-4786-B514-3DE06E3B52C9.thumb.png.96b8498619536e0e7d4ca0c0666de65e.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, this arvo's GEFS 12Z ensembles are NAE BAD!  image.thumb.png.41995189480f40e9f87035a174417cca.png

                           t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

     

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

    And anyway, cutting through all the nonsense the ECM this evening shows low after after low impacting on the UK right out to day 10, very poor for our limited 'high summer' window. 

    10 days is a stretch with any model, so looking past that to maybe 14 days, and your back in the extended guessing game again....

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    To my untrained eyes, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean day 10 looks slightly better than the 0z?...anyway, the potential interest is currently beyond ecm range but thankfully the Gfs / GEFS does now reach mid august and there’s been some great signs today...it’s just the beginning, I have a good feeling that summery weather will return, either just before or during mid month!... ☀️🤞 😉 

    1EB4DE3F-D691-4CE9-90BB-61458A1B1CF9.thumb.gif.51e845ae446dd638fb3b75d8d28851d0.gif490368FE-9A7B-4360-8667-2DD54ED92EC6.thumb.gif.cca4c666876e3d5ae71b77bb2a6ba31c.gif

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    28 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

    And anyway, cutting through all the nonsense the ECM this evening shows low after after low impacting on the UK right out to day 10, very poor for our limited 'high summer' window. 

    10 days is a stretch with any model, so looking past that to maybe 14 days, and your back in the extended guessing game again....

    There's a little more to it than purely guessing. The last settled spell was picked up several weeks earlier regarding rising AAM! There's not much point in anyone coming on here to issue a forecast beyond a few days,if its merely going to be a case of guessing! I'm pretty sure Exeter and the like do a little more than guess when they issue there monthly forecasts! Yes beyond 10 days is fraught with error at anytime of the year! But there are signs for sure of things settling down before much longer on a fair amount of data.

    Can't you come on here once in a while and issue a forecast,rather than to keep saying its all pretty pointless second guessing the models beyond a certain timeframe!

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